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Nebraska Bubble Watch

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Thought I would start a thread to discuss Nebraska's chances of making the tournament.

 

As some may remember, I was not high on Nebraska getting into the tournament last year mostly due to the lack of Quad 1 wins and the BIG being down. Losses to  Illinois and Penn State really impacted Nebraska last year combined with no Quad 1 wins.  This year, I feel the exact opposite.

 

Currently, Nebraska is 11-3 with 3 Quad 1 losses.  Based on comments made by the selection committee last year, I got the impression a Quad 1 loss seemed to hold equal weight to a Quad 3 win.

 

Looking forward, I see Nebraska getting in with a 12-8 BIG record regardless of BIG tourney outcome.  How we get there?

 

1.  3 road wins: Move on from Minnesota and Maryland.  MUST WIN: Illinois, Rutgers, and Penn State.  A road win against any of the remaining teams likely will be a Quad 1 win.  

 

2.  9-1 home record: very doable.  Nebraska tends to play well at home over the years.  Just need to make sure the loss is to a Quad 1 team.  

 

The remaining road schedule is very rough, but should help the SOS component of the NET.  Really, the more road wins, the better. 

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One thing we have going for us this year is we have wins against probable NCAA tournament teams.  Last year we had one (Michigan).  This year we have three (@ Clemson, Seton Hall, Creighton) with about 10 chances (Iowa 2x, @ Indiana, MSU 2x, OSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, and @ Michigan) Possibly 2 more with Purdue.

 

Just winning our home games gives us 9 or 10 (depending on the Purdue game) quality wins for the season.  Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State wins get us 13 - 7 in conference and 23 - 8 overall.  That will give us a 5 or 6 seed.  

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3 hours ago, brfrad said:

One thing we have going for us this year is we have wins against probable NCAA tournament teams.  Last year we had one (Michigan).  This year we have three (@ Clemson, Seton Hall, Creighton) with about 10 chances (Iowa 2x, @ Indiana, MSU 2x, OSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, and @ Michigan) Possibly 2 more with Purdue.

 

Just winning our home games gives us 9 or 10 (depending on the Purdue game) quality wins for the season.  Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State wins get us 13 - 7 in conference and 23 - 8 overall.  That will give us a 5 or 6 seed.  

Great post after a tough loss last night.  This does not suck.

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13 hours ago, brfrad said:

One thing we have going for us this year is we have wins against probable NCAA tournament teams.  Last year we had one (Michigan).  This year we have three (@ Clemson, Seton Hall, Creighton) with about 10 chances (Iowa 2x, @ Indiana, MSU 2x, OSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, and @ Michigan) Possibly 2 more with Purdue.

 

Just winning our home games gives us 9 or 10 (depending on the Purdue game) quality wins for the season.  Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State wins get us 13 - 7 in conference and 23 - 8 overall.  That will give us a 5 or 6 seed.  

 

Purdue is higher ranked than Maryland right now. Nebraska only dropped 4 places in the NET after losing to Maryland. Win or lose, the SOS is in our favor. It’s too early to discuss seeding. I just want to get in. 

 

3 3 Michigan Big Ten 13-0 2-0 2-0 9-0 0-0
7 9 Michigan St. Big Ten 12-2 2-1 2-1 8-0 0-0
14 10 Nebraska Big Ten 11-3 1-2 2-1 7-0 1-0
15 14 Wisconsin Big Ten 10-3 2-2 2-1 6-0 0-0
18 19 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-1 3-0 1-0 8-1 0-0
21 21 Indiana Big Ten 11-2 1-2 1-0 9-0 0-0
30 30 Purdue Big Ten 8-5 0-3 2-2 6-0 0-0
32 42 Maryland Big Ten 11-3 1-1 1-0 9-2 0-0
35 36 Iowa Big Ten 11-2 0-1 3-0 8-1 0-0
52 50 Minnesota Big Ten 11-2 0-2 4-0 7-0 0-0
60 54 Northwestern Big Ten 9-5 0-2 2-1 7-2 0-0
74 77 Penn St. Big Ten 7-6 1-3 1-2 5-1 0-0
124 129 Illinois Big Ten 4-9 0-2 0-4 4-3 0-0
127 126 Rutgers Big Ten 7-5 1-3 0-0 6-2 0-

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We need to start winning games, stat. We are down to #47 in the KPI rankings, which is basically "who you have beaten?" and I believe this still shows up on the team sheets. We're not anywhere near the bubble yet, but our resume is starting to show some holes.

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More than anything I hate how we have lost on the road. Not who we lost to, just how we lost. Against Minnesota and UMD we were up, and needed a few key stops to put it away. Against Iowa we were down, got a few key stops, and couldn't score. In fact, I think down the stretch in the Iowa game down we got like 3 straight turnovers and didn't score. Can't do that.

 

What if we lose the rest of our road games (except Illinois, Penn State and Rutgers) and win every home game? I would be completely happy with that. It would put us in the top four in the conf for seeding in tournament. It sucks we lost those three games, but we are still a dangerous team who hasn't lost at home since we lost by 1 to Kansas in 2017.... It's not crazy to think we could go undefeated at the vault

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7 hours ago, noahjb24 said:

Quote me on this.. we get back on track with a nice 15 point win against Penn State then win our next 3 after that vs. Indiana, MI St, Rutgers squaring up with a home ranked matchup against Ohio State with our record sitting at 15-4 (5-3).

Wager?

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21 hours ago, noahjb24 said:

Quote me on this.. we get back on track with a nice 15 point win against Penn State then win our next 3 after that vs. Indiana, MI St, Rutgers squaring up with a home ranked matchup against Ohio State with our record sitting at 15-4 (5-3).

I will have what your drinking!!!!!!!!

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3 3 Michigan Big Ten 15-0 2-0 2-0 11-0 0-0
7 7 Michigan St. Big Ten 13-2 3-1 2-1 8-0 0-0
15 15 Nebraska Big Ten 11-4 1-3 2-1 7-0 1-0
17 17 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-4 3-2 2-1 6-1 0-0
20 20 Indiana Big Ten 12-3 1-3 1-0 10-0 0-0
22 22 Purdue Big Ten 9-5 0-3 2-2 7-0 0-0
29 29 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-2 3-0 1-0 8-2 0-0
32 32 Maryland Big Ten 12-3 2-1 1-0 9-2 0-0
35 35 Iowa Big Ten 12-3 0-2 3-0 9-1 0-0
38 38 Minnesota Big Ten 12-2 1-2 4-0 7-0 0-0
56 56 Northwestern Big Ten 10-5 0-2 2-1 8-2 0-0
76 75 Penn St. Big Ten 7-8 1-4 1-2 5-2 0-0
125 126 Illinois Big Ten 4-11 0-4 0-4 4-3 0-0
135 135 Rutgers Big Ten 7-6 1-3 0-0 6-3 0-0

 

Remaining road games: Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, MSU, Michigan.  

 

I wonder if games at Rutgers and Illinois may give the team enough confidence to win at Purdue.  Still sticking to my 12-8 prediction.

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3 minutes ago, noahjb24 said:

We can legitimately go 5-2 in our remaining road games if we just play to 90% of our level.

 

if we'd done that, we'd be 3-1 instead of 1-3.

We can't just ignore trends, either. 

We're not good in tight games on the road. And until there's a reason to believe that this is purely just bad luck as opposed to something more systemic, then just assuming miracle turnarounds doesn't seem wise. 

 

 

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Out of 351 teams, there are only 14 teams that win less than 50% of their home games.

 

Minnesota wins 72% of their home games, Maryland wins 82% of their home games, and Iowa wins 76% of their home games.  It's tough to win on the road in college basketball.  Especially in this conference.  So what do we need to do?  Take care of our home games.  Currently we win 71% of our home games which ranks 129th overall.  However, that number only includes PBA and drastically improves if you take out a season or two.

 

Next, we need to steal a few on the road.  The following are our remaining road games and the teams home winning percentage...

 

Indiana- 83%- #21 best winning percentage.

Rutgers- 64%- #218

Illinois- 77%- #57

Purdue- 82%- #27

Penn State- 62%- #258

Michigan- 79%- #42

Michigan State- 86%- #6

 

I think it's fair to say our best opportunities are Rutgers and Penn State this year.  Then, Illinois is having a down year, so that would be another good opportunity.  However, the rest of our road games... much like the previous three we have already had... will be tough to win.  The Big 10 is up this year and on top of that, home teams have a huge advantage historically.  Don't get disappointed in road losses to good teams.  Take care of business at home and steal a few on the road and we should be fine.

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I was curious, so in case anyone was wondering, home teams are currently winning 65% of their games in the Big 10 this year, and the home losses are as follows...

 

Iowa

Rutgers X2

Northwestern

Penn State X2

Illinois

Wisconsin

Ohio State

 

Those with a road W...

 

WIsconsin X2

MSU X2

Michigan

Indiana

Ohio St

Minnesota

Maryland

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2 hours ago, KearneyMan said:

Sorry to be a Debby Downer but we won't make the tournament!!

 

 

Well, we definitely agree that you're sorry. 

 

It'll be harder to miss it at this point than make it. 

 

And by the way, where exactly on the evolutionary scale is Kearney Man anyway? Is that before or after Neanderthals?

 

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