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Nebraska Bubble Watch

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1 hour ago, Huskerpapa said:

Good lord...we need a win.

 

If we can be patient for approximately another 36 hours, 23 minutes and 20 seconds, we should be able to exhale and regroup as a collective fanbase.  Hopefully the number of pitchforks out and about drops as well.

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11 hours ago, Cazzie22 said:

Right now, I would be happy to make the tournament field.

 

I know this is Nebrasketball and we’ve never won a ncaa tourney game....but our goal should be higher than that with this group no? I will be disappointed if we don’t get the monkey off our back this year.  

 

Barring a pretty large collapse it should be a given that this team goes dancing.  Just have to hope for some good matchups come March. 

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12 hours ago, KearneyMan said:

Sorry to be a Debby Downer but we won't make the tournament!!

 

 

Where have you been all this year!?!? Life just hasn’t been the same without you.  I’ve missed you.  No one to downvote... no posts to laugh at because they are so crazy... has our bar for this really increased to two losses in a row instead of every loss?  Do better KMan.

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36 minutes ago, Huskerone said:

So Ohio State just lost at Rutgers tonight.  I wonder when the fire the coach, or bubble watch threads start on their message boards? 😋

 

Maryland already had theirs before they beat a ranked opponent in front of a crowd of what seemed like around 2,000 people.

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2 2 Michigan Big Ten 17-0 3-0 2-0 12-0 0-0
7 7 Michigan St. Big Ten 15-2 4-1 2-1 9-0 0-0
10 10 Nebraska Big Ten 13-4 2-3 2-1 8-0 1-0
17 20 Purdue Big Ten 11-6 1-4 2-2 8-0 0-0
18 17 Maryland Big Ten 15-3 3-1 1-0 11-2 0-0
20 19 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-6 3-3 2-1 6-2 0-0
27 28 Iowa Big Ten 14-3 1-2 3-0 10-1 0-0
31 30 Indiana Big Ten 12-5 1-4 1-0 10-1 0-0
36 35 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-4 3-2 1-0 8-2 0-0
48 45 Minnesota Big Ten 13-3 1-2 4-0 8-1 0-0
58 58 Northwestern Big Ten 10-7 0-3 2-1 8-3 0-0
83 81 Penn St. Big Ten 7-10 1-5 1-2 5-3 0-0
126 125 Illinois Big Ten 4-12 0-4 0-4 4-4 0-0
131 113 Rutgers Big Ten 8-8 1-5 0-0 7-3 0-0

 

Remaining Games:

 

Home: MSU; tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 3-3 (2-0 home; 1-3 road).

My original calculations had losing both Michigan State games.  This Michigan State game could be huge for momentum as the remaining schedule is favorable until the last (back-to-back) road games against Michigan State and Michigan (followed by a closeout home game against Iowa).  The Purdue road game could be the difference between 4-6 and 5-5.  Depending on tonight's results, I now can see a 13-7 or 14-6 conference record.  I like playing Rutgers after a tough Michigan State game.

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1 hour ago, jimmykc said:

Oddly, I see us either laying a gigantic egg tonight....or winning. I do not think we will lose if the game is close.

I certainly HOPE that we win big.  But I have a feeling it may be a rock fight to the end tonight. Of course if it is close all the way to the end, I may end up waking up in an emergency room.

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Remaining Games:

 

Quad 1 record: 2-4

 

Home: tOSU; Wisconsin; Maryland; Minnesota; Northwestern; Purdue; Iowa

 

Away: Rutgers; Illinois, Purdue; PSU; Michigan; MSU

 

Conference Record: 3-4 (2-1 home; 1-3 road).

 

This link has all of the Quad 1 wins last year by school. https://herosports.com/college-basketball/bracketology-ncaa-team-sheet-quadrant-1-wins-michigan-ahah

 

4 Quad 1 wins seems to be the tourney bubble with 5 of 9 getting into the tournament.  Georgia and Baylor had losing conference records.  Marquette was identified by the committee, with Notre Dame, as the next two out.  USC was likely the victim of a bad conference.  Of the 5 of got in, Arizona, Gonzaga won their respective conference tournaments.  of the remaining 3 at large qualifiers, Wichita State, Clemson,  

 

For the most part 5 Quad 1 wins gets you into the tourney.  Oklahoma St (5 wins) and LSU (6 wins) were the only schools with more Quad 1 wins who were left out of the tourney, likely because both has losing conference records.  I really believe the committee let Oklahoma (6 wins) in with a losing record because it did not want to look bad after listing Oklahoma in the early power rankings.

 

Oddly enough, all of the at large play-in games were between schools with 3 Quad 1 wins.  Syracuse, UCLA, and Arizona St seem to be rewarded for their strong non-conference records while St. Bonaventure had a 8 and 12 game winning streak during the season.     

 

Right now, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, Purdue (twice), Wisconsin, and Maryland are potential Quad 1 wins.  3-4 in those games and 5-0 in the remaining games (8-4 total) would leave Nebraska at 12-8 in the conference and safely in the tourney.  I could see a scenario of 11-9 getting Nebraska into the tourney provided the additional loss results from a Quad 1 game.  

Edited by Donkey

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12 hours ago, jimmykc said:

Be patient. Kearneyman won't visit again until after a loss...which hopefully may take a while.

 

That's funny.  I was just about to post that I gave him credit for leaving up his:  "Sorry to be a Debby Downer but we won't make the tournament!!"  post.

 

Him (or her) not deleting it is the ultimate double down if you ask me. 

 

Side note:  the MSU bigs hitting those two jumpers to start the game changed everything in my view; had to respect it from then on.  Bummer.

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