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Nebraska Bubble Watch


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Just now, hskr4life said:

Good Watch.  You have to think we’re one of the 30.  

 

 

Yes, highly recommend watching this...some very interesting nuggets:

 

Bernard Muir, the committee chair, stated emphatically that the committee  "loves the new (NET) metric" and that "it's a very, new-age analytical tool"  This is great news for us if we can pick off two more wins and get in the upper 30's/low 40's.  

 

The 30 teams under consideration is a little misleading.  Muir stated that this will be reduced significantly today as many teams resumes are now complete.  My takeway from this is that "reduced significantly" means that this list is likely cut by at least 10-15 and that we are now competing with perhaps 15-20 teams for the last 4 spots.

 

The committee also is discussing high loss teams with great SOS versus low loss teams with poor SOS (i.e. Belmont).  This conversation happens every year and we know how this song and dance plays out - small schools typically get the screw job and I'll be ok with that this year!

 

Lastly, Katz at the end asked how the committee puts contingency plans in place for bid stealers like "West Virginia" and "Nebraska".  I cringed and wanted to reach through the computer and shake Andy.  If we win another couple of games, we won't be a bid stealer, will be a legitimate contender for an at large bid.  With his BIG bias, he doesn't need to infer to the committee chair that the only way we get in is by winning the BIG tournament!

 

Overall, great interview though.

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25 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Yes, highly recommend watching this...some very interesting nuggets:

 

Bernard Muir, the committee chair, stated emphatically that the committee  "loves the new (NET) metric" and that "it's a very, new-age analytical tool"  This is great news for us if we can pick off two more wins and get in the upper 30's/low 40's.  

 

The 30 teams under consideration is a little misleading.  Muir stated that this will be reduced significantly today as many teams resumes are now complete.  My takeway from this is that "reduced significantly" means that this list is likely cut by at least 10-15 and that we are now competing with perhaps 15-20 teams for the last 4 spots.

 

The committee also is discussing high loss teams with great SOS versus low loss teams with poor SOS (i.e. Belmont).  This conversation happens every year and we know how this song and dance plays out - small schools typically get the screw job and I'll be ok with that this year!

 

Lastly, Katz at the end asked how the committee puts contingency plans in place for bid stealers like "West Virginia" and "Nebraska".  I cringed and wanted to reach through the computer and shake Andy.  If we win another couple of games, we won't be a bid stealer, will be a legitimate contender for an at large bid.  With his BIG bias, he doesn't need to infer to the committee chair that the only way we get in is by winning the BIG tournament!

 

Overall, great interview though.

 

New year, same shit. Last year remember all the BTN analysts said we had to beat Michigan (AGAIN) to get in despite our great record and 4th place finish. Were they right? Sure. However they are the damn conference network and the talking heads did us no favors. 

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1 hour ago, throwback said:

Rutgers slipped to #101 today. So that drops out one of our Q2 wins for now. Back to 3 Q1 and 6 Q2 wins. 

 

Stupid RU. They must have turned in their equipment poorly on Thursday, costing themselves a spot in NET.

 

Ok, yes, losing this as a Q2 is unfortunate as we still need to accumulate these Q1 & Q2 wins.  However, here are a few off the radar game that we should have big rooting interests in:

 

Old Dominion (Net #97) plays UAB (Net #137) in the C-USA semi.  Let's go Blazers!!!

SMU (Net #98) plays Cincinnati (Net #26) in the AAC quarters.  Could really use a Cincinnati blow out!

 

Also, Grand Canyon (Net #93) plays Utah Valley (Net #90) but I don't think the loser of this falls below Rutgers unless someone gets completely blown out.  Uconn (Net #89) is currently playing Houston (Net #4) but I don't think it matters even if they lose by 40, they probably aren't dropping 13 spots.

 

Of course, still teams that can jump Rutgers but not a lot are still playing that can fall below them

 

I think our selection committee games of interest thread died so figure this is as good of place as any to put this.

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21 minutes ago, MilesDavis said:

 

New year, same shit. Last year remember all the BTN analysts said we had to beat Michigan (AGAIN) to get in despite our great record and 4th place finish. Were they right? Sure. However they are the damn conference network and the talking heads did us no favors. 

I mean...I'd rather know the truth/reality than have them blow smoke at us making us believe we are closer to the bubble than we really are. I don't think BTN is on in the committee conference rooms.

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5 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

I mean...I'd rather know the truth/reality than have them blow smoke at us making us believe we are closer to the bubble than we really are. I don't think BTN is on in the committee conference rooms.

 

I get your point, but I"m pretty sure the committee has an eye on every game's TV broadcast. 

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1 hour ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

The committee also is discussing high loss teams with great SOS versus low loss teams with poor SOS (i.e. Belmont).  This conversation happens every year and we know how this song and dance plays out - small schools typically get the screw job and I'll be ok with that this year!

If a team like Belmont gets in over us, even if the season ended right now, then we got absolutely screwed last year. Their NET is higher than us at 46, but their 2 Q1 wins are at 45 Murry St and at 48 Lipscomb. And they've played 17 Q4 games. A lot of teams could win 25 with that kind of schedule.

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31 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Katz just said “make it to Sunday and we got a ‘small’ chance”

What? This is ridiculous. We have an argument to be in if we win today, and we deserve to be an absolute lock if we win tomorrow as well (assuming it's Michigan State we would beat). Seriously, a lock.

 

edit: fixed typo

Edited by HuskerActuary
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22 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

What? This is ridiculous. We have an argument to be in if we win today, and we deserve to be an absolute luck if we win tomorrow as well (assuming it's Michigan State we would beat). Seriously, a lock.

 

Ha, last year I hated you for your no nonsense by the numbers analysis and now I love it and hope you are correct.

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1 hour ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Ok, yes, losing this as a Q2 is unfortunate as we still need to accumulate these Q1 & Q2 wins.  However, here are a few off the radar game that we should have big rooting interests in:

 

Old Dominion (Net #97) plays UAB (Net #137) in the C-USA semi.  Let's go Blazers!!!

SMU (Net #98) plays Cincinnati (Net #26) in the AAC quarters.  Could really use a Cincinnati blow out!

 

Also, Grand Canyon (Net #93) plays Utah Valley (Net #90) but I don't think the loser of this falls below Rutgers unless someone gets completely blown out.  Uconn (Net #89) is currently playing Houston (Net #4) but I don't think it matters even if they lose by 40, they probably aren't dropping 13 spots.

 

Of course, still teams that can jump Rutgers but not a lot are still playing that can fall below them

 

I think our selection committee games of interest thread died so figure this is as good of place as any to put this.

 

Update - UConn will test my NET guestimating skills as they lost by 39.  UAB is up 1 on ODU at half.  So far, so good.  This is way better than following @royalfan depressing updates on Deleware St. last season.

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18 minutes ago, MichHusker said:

Well folks, it’s started. As of the morning update of Bracketmatrix today we are officially IN in 1 of the 117 brackets. About 75% of the brackets have been updated today. I’d be curious to see how many of them have us in the last four out 

 

I like that guy's bracket lol. He doesn't have any at-large teams outside the NET Top 60 in the tournament. Which is the way it should be, that's why this damn metric was created, to sort the teams better. This would and should exclude teams like:

 

60 UNC Greensboro

62 Toledo

63 Arizona St.

72 St. John's

 

from consideration. 

Edited by MilesDavis
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Ohio State Resume...19-14; 8-13 versus Q1/Q2; Net Rank - 55 and that will fall today.  1 Q3 loss;  Best Wins - @ Cincinnati (Net #26) and then a bunch of teams we also beat (Minnesota, Iowa, Creighton)

Nebraska Resume...18-15; 9-15 versus Q1/Q2; Net Rank - 49.  Zero bad losses

 

And Ohio State is either in the first four in or out of the bracket and Nebraska is not because???  I actually think Ohio St. is likely out at this point.

Edited by Nebrasketball1979
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