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Nebraska Bubble Watch


Donkey

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Think we are still a ways from the actual bubble, but we do have a shot coming up to get back on it.   If we can find a way to go 4-2 down the stretch (@PSU, NW, Pur, IA) to get to 18-13 heading into Chicago, there's an outside shot.   8-12 doesn't look good.   Everyone is comparing us to OU last year.   8-12 is worse than 8-10 and a lot of our wins aren't as good.   I think we would need 2 in Chicago.

 

If we can get to 20-14, while finishing 7-3 in our last 10 (not an official factor, but helps with perception) and have wins over Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa and likely another tournament team in Chicago...I think there's a possibility due to the Big 10's strength.

 

We absolutely need Minnesota, Seton Hall and Clemson to continue their strong play though.  Creighton seems to be a lost cause now at 13-12...but the others can play their way into the tournament yet.  Indiana rebounding is big for us as well.

 

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27 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

We only need 19 wins to get in. Feel pretty good about that. The bubble is very weak this year.

 

And the fact the NET loves us. If teams are smart next year they'll just schedule crap teams and kick the snot out of them, because apparently that's all you have to do to stay in the good graces of this ranking system. 

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1 hour ago, nustudent said:

If we can find a way to go 4-2 down the stretch

 

Anyway we can slice it going 4-2 down the stretch would give us at least our best 2 wins of the season and at least 4 quad 1 wins. 

So maybe don't let Northwestern come here and win, figure out how to not get bludgeoned by Penn St on the road, win one of the next 3 vs Purdue, Mich St, Michigan which sets you up for No Sit Sunday II vs Iowa. That's a lot of ifs for a team that tried to give away this game to Minnesota at the end.

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1 hour ago, nustudent said:

Think we are still a ways from the actual bubble, but we do have a shot coming up to get back on it.   If we can find a way to go 4-2 down the stretch (@PSU, NW, Pur, IA) to get to 18-13 heading into Chicago, there's an outside shot.   8-12 doesn't look good.   Everyone is comparing us to OU last year.   8-12 is worse than 8-10 and a lot of our wins aren't as good.   I think we would need 2 in Chicago.

 

If we can get to 20-14, while finishing 7-3 in our last 10 (not an official factor, but helps with perception) and have wins over Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa and likely another tournament team in Chicago...I think there's a possibility due to the Big 10's strength.

 

We absolutely need Minnesota, Seton Hall and Clemson to continue their strong play though.  Creighton seems to be a lost cause now at 13-12...but the others can play their way into the tournament yet.  Indiana rebounding is big for us as well.

 

Going 4 -2 would give us a chance at 5 Q1 wins (@ PSU, Purdue, Iowa, @ Ind, and @ Clem)  Last year, we beat one team that was considered an at-large or bubble team (Mich).  We have beaten teams on the bubble or in tournament this year (Minn, SHall, @ Ind, Pur, and Iowa)  OU had 6 wins against Q1 teams last year.  We have a chance going 4 - 2, and maybe a win in the Big 10 tourney.  If we finish, 4 - 2, probably get an 8 or 9 seed in tournament.  Both will be playing first day games.  The only bad part is probably be Minnesota, which will not be a Q1 game.

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On 2/14/2019 at 7:12 AM, HuskerActuary said:

We only need 19 wins to get in. Feel pretty good about that. The bubble is very weak this year.

Agreed. And even 18 may be enough. The bubble is shallow, as you said, which helps. 

 

Right now, we're at 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins. With 4 more regular season wins to get to 18-13, we'll be around 4-5 Q1 wins and 6-7 Q2 wins.

 

Last year's bubble-ish teams that made the tourney:

  • Oklahoma #10 seed - 6 Q1 / 3 Q2
  • Butler #10 seed - 4 Q1 / 4 Q2
  • Texas #10 seed - 6 Q1 / 2 Q2
  • UCLA #11 seed - 3 Q1 / 5 Q2
  • Arizona St #11 seed - 3 Q1 / 5 Q2
  • Creighton #8 seed - 2 Q1 / 5 Q2 ?
  • Providence #10 seed - 5 Q1 / 5 Q2
  • USC (no bid) - 4 Q1 / 5 Q2
  • Notre Dame (no bid) - 2 Q1 / 5 Q2
  • Baylor (no bid) - 4 Q1 / 3 Q2
  • Georgia (no bid) - 5 Q1 / 5 Q2

At 18-13 in the regular season, our resume of 11-ish Q1/Q2 wins would be better than most of these teams.

 

Only 24 teams had 10+ combined Q1/Q2 wins last year - all but 1 made the tournament - and comfortably. Missouri & Alabama & Providence were the lowest seeds at #8 and #9 and #10.

 

(EDIT: Found 1 team that won 10 Q1/Q2 games and didn't make the tournament last year - Georgia had 5 Q1 and 5 Q2 wins, but didn't make it; they had a #79 RPI.)

 

I don't think we can win 4 more Q1/Q2 games without Cope. But if we do, I really think 18 wins - with 11 of those Q1/Q2 wins - has us on the right side of what is a very shallow bubble. Plus we'd have the B1G tournament to try to pick up another 1 or 2 wins.

 

Now, this is all assuming the committee follows the pattern of last year regarding quad 1 and 2 wins and almost ignoring losses. Understandably a big if, since there are new people on the committee every year. 

 

Also assuming Penn St & Seton Hall stay in the Top 75 of the NET. They have a few spots of cushion right now, but it will be close on both of them coming down the stretch. For example, we'll need to win at PSU, but it'd help to win by just 1 point. ?

 

Edited by throwback
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What helps us this year is that the PAC 12– with another 1-2 losses but washington— is a 1 bid league.  Big East isn’t as strong.  We’re in arguably the best conference right now.  Just need to put wins on the table.

 

Currently we are 5-1 against other bubbly teams on our schedule.  (Creighton, Clemson, Minny, Indiana, Seton Hall)

Edited by hskr4life
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25 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

What helps us this year is that the PAC 12– with another 1-2 losses but washington— is a 1 bid league.  Big East isn’t as strong.  We’re in arguably the best conference right now.  Just need to put wins on the table.

 

Currently we are 5-2 against other bubbly teams on our schedule.  (Tech, Creighton, Clemson, Minny, Indiana)

Texas Tech is no bubble team....they're in the hunt for a 3 seed. 

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1 hour ago, royalfan said:

I do wonder how much we would be downgraded for losing Copeland.  

 

Well, we have 6+ games to rattle off wins and change the narrative on this subject.  If we go 4-2 over the last 6 and pick off 1-2 in the BIG tourney, we will have beaten high quality teams in this run without Copeland.  I would suspect that losing Copeland becomes far less important to the committee if we have demonstrated we can beat tournament quality teams without him.  Teams get penalized or left out of the tournament if they lose a star or key player right before the tournament and the committee is making assumptions for how negatively that will impact said team moving forward.  For better or worse at least Copeland went down early in the season for us to hopefully reinvent ourselves over the final month and prove we are a worthy team without him.

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1 hour ago, royalfan said:

I do wonder how much we would be downgraded for losing Copeland.  

Agree and a fair point.

 

However, if we get to 18 wins, that means 5 of our Q1/Q2 wins would have come after he was injured - nearly half of them. On paper, that looks pretty good over a 10-11-game stretch without a key player.

 

Unfortunately, it's going to be very difficult to find enough offense without Cope. Not Hail Mary vs Northwestern tough - maybe 57-yd FG by Alex Henery tough. ?

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Also, question...

 

Does anyone else have 18 games currently against Tier 1 and Tier 2 opponents?  Our team sheet is below.  If the season were to end with everyone remaining where they are at, we would finish with the following number of tiered games..

 

Q1- 15 games.  Q2- 9 games. Q3- 2 games. Q4- 4 games... and SW Minny State.

 

That would be nearly half of our season against Q1 teams and over 2/3 of our season against Q1 and Q2 teams.  That's crazy!

 

http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSNebraska.htm

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Just now, AuroranHusker said:

 

Nebraska has a decent profile. Now NU has to get some B1G victories down the stretch. Although it doesn't seem likely, neither did that 7-game losing streak before it happened. GBR !!!

 

 

Get the next two against the last place teams in the B1G.........If that happens PBA will be bonkers for Purdue. Get that one and we're probably bubble IN. Still definitely possible. 

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12 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Nebraska has a decent profile. Now NU has to get some B1G victories down the stretch. Although it doesn't seem likely, neither did that 7-game losing streak before it happened. GBR !!!

 

 

Love this perspective- The losing streak kind of blindsided us, so why can't a winning streak blindside us?  GBR!

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