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Posted
Just now, Huskerpapa said:

I am not sure how long KenPom has been around, but I honestly just realized it wasn't KenPorn.

 

Whatever floats your boat, man!  ?

Posted

...and look at it this way.  The previous years' data isn't completely wiped out of KenPom (we were in the 90's exactly a year ago) and yet still here we are sitting at #14.

 

What that means is we are probably still better than our ranking according to KenPom.  I think some of y'all still don't understand what we have on our hands here...

Posted
4 minutes ago, 49r said:

...and look at it this way.  The previous years' data isn't completely wiped out of KenPom (we were in the 90's exactly a year ago) and yet still here we are sitting at #14.

 

What that means is we are probably still better than our ranking according to KenPom.  I think some of y'all still don't understand what we have on our hands here...

With no intent to be disrespectful 49r, I do not need a computer, or statistician to tell me what we have on our hands.  I can see it with my eyes.  

Posted

It seems like it's been a week since I last updated this thread.  Oh, wait...

 

Not much change at all other than our MASSIVE JUMP TO NUMBER FOURTEEN!

 

I did want to share where we were exactly one year ago though, just for fun.

 

 

Okay, here we go:

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-17-18

==========================
 
B1G (1-1):
5. Michigan
8. Michigan State
13. Wisconsin
14. Nebraska

19. Purdue

24. Indiana

25. Ohio State

27. Maryland

35. Iowa
43. Penn State
47. Northwestern

59. Minnesota - L

94. Illinois - W

109. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (8-1):
350. Mississippi Valley State - W
300. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
58. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
213. Missouri State - W
10. Texas Tech - L
 
246. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
41. @Clemson - W
 
38. Creighton - W
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
77. Oklahoma State - W
 
164. Cal State Fullerton
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State
Posted

We manage to hold on to our #14 KenPom rank, but only just.  Kentucky's win over UNC last night propelled them into #15 with a bullet.  They are now just 2 hundredths of a point behind us.

 

13 Auburn SEC 10-2 +21.26 115.7 11 94.4 34 69.5 191 +.007 160 +4.14 72 104.4 100 100.2 46 +4.14 70
14 Nebraska B10 10-2 +20.78 114.6 17 93.8 30 67.0 296 +.016 143 +2.15 114 103.0 180 100.8 72 +0.38 171
15 Kentucky SEC 9-2 +20.76 115.2 13 94.4 33 70.4 147 +.057 89 -1.75 231 101.8 232 103.5 226 -1.75 227

 

In better news, Ken has upped his W-L prediction for Nebraska, putting us at  12 conference wins.  Merry Christmas everybody!

Projected record: 22-9 12-8

 

Not much changed in the Big Ten standings.  Maryland slipped a bit into the 30's and Northwestern and Penn State switched spots.

 

In the non-con, Clemson appears to be righting the ship and is on the upswing, while Oklahoma State is still hemorrhaging spots.

 

Okay, here we go:

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-23-18

==========================
 
B1G (1-1):
4. Michigan
6. Michigan State
12. Wisconsin
14. Nebraska

19. Purdue

22. Indiana

23. Ohio State

32. Maryland

33. Iowa
45. Northwestern
46. Penn State

59. Minnesota - L

106. Illinois - W

114. Rutgers
 
Non-Conference (9-1):
351. Mississippi Valley State - W
308. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
55. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
213. Missouri State - W
10. Texas Tech - L
 
245. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
37. @Clemson - W
 
39. Creighton - W
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
81. Oklahoma State - W
 
172. Cal State Fullerton - W
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State
Posted

...and looking forward to the start of conference play with 3 of 5 games away from home, I am thinking we may be able to come out of it okay.

 

Wed Jan 2   32 Maryland L, 71-70 66 48% Away   × a.gif
Sun Jan 6   33 Iowa L, 75-74 68 49% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 10   46 Penn St. W, 71-62 66 79% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 14   22 Indiana L, 72-70 68 43% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 17   6 Michigan St. W, 75-74 69 53% Home   × a.gif

 

Ken has 4 of the games a virtual coin flip with us going  2-3 in the stretch.  If we can manage to flip that to 3-2 somehow I would think that's a satisfying outcome.  The best part of this is the students should be away still for @Maryland and @Iowa which gives me reason for hope.

 

 

 

Posted
28 minutes ago, 49r said:

...and looking forward to the start of conference play with 3 of 5 games away from home, I am thinking we may be able to come out of it okay.

 

Wed Jan 2   32 Maryland L, 71-70 66 48% Away   × a.gif
Sun Jan 6   33 Iowa L, 75-74 68 49% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 10   46 Penn St. W, 71-62 66 79% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 14   22 Indiana L, 72-70 68 43% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 17   6 Michigan St. W, 75-74 69 53% Home   × a.gif

 

Ken has 4 of the games a virtual coin flip with us going  2-3 in the stretch.  If we can manage to flip that to 3-2 somehow I would think that's a satisfying outcome.  The best part of this is the students should be away still for @Maryland and @Iowa which gives me reason for hope.

 

 

 

Yes, 3-2 over these next 5 would be an outstanding result, and it would really set us up for a big run over the following 10 games before that killer finish.

 

Posted
46 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Wed Jan 2   32 Maryland L, 71-70 66 48% Away   × a.gif
Sun Jan 6   33 Iowa L, 75-74 68 49% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 10   46 Penn St. W, 71-62 66 79% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 14   22 Indiana L, 72-70 68 43% Away   × a.gif
Thu Jan 17   6 Michigan St. W, 75-74 69 53% Home   × a.gif

 

 

Soooo.... basically "win your home games" and try to steal some on the road?

Posted
2 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Soooo.... basically "win your home games" and try to steal some on the road?

 

Yes, I think that is the exact formula.  Before the season I had us winning 10 non-con games and 14 in conference.  My thought is that they go 9-1 in conference at home (probably a tough loss like the Michigan one a few seasons back) and then 5-5 on the road.  We gave away the road win at Minnesota but I do think that loss serves us well on the road at Maryland and Iowa.  I think that loss will teach this team how to close on the road.

Posted

Road games remaining ranked by mostly likely NU victory to least likely:

  1. Rutgers
  2. Illinois
  3. Penn State
  4. Iowa
  5. Maryland
  6. Indiana
  7. Purdue
  8. Michigan State
  9. Michigan

I think we can win four of those, starting with Rutgers, Illinois and Penn State, plus one of the next two over Iowa or Maryland. Combine that with 9-1 at home, that's 23-8, 13-7. I like @Nebrasketball1979's confidence in our going 14-6, though, and could even see us at 15-5 if things break right. That written, I'll take 11-9 and an eight seed if that's where this road leads.

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