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2018-2019 KenPom Rankings Thread


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9 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

Yes, I think that is the exact formula.  Before the season I had us winning 10 non-con games and 14 in conference.  My thought is that they go 9-1 in conference at home (probably a tough loss like the Michigan one a few seasons back) and then 5-5 on the road.  We gave away the road win at Minnesota but I do think that loss serves us well on the road at Maryland and Iowa.  I think that loss will teach this team how to close on the road.

Simulating that scenario out on Bart Torvik, we would be the top 4 seed at 24-7 (14-6 Big Ten) (pending conference tournament results).

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9 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Road games remaining ranked by mostly likely NU victory to least likely:

  1. Rutgers
  2. Illinois
  3. Penn State
  4. Iowa
  5. Maryland
  6. Indiana
  7. Purdue
  8. Michigan State
  9. Michigan

I think we can win four of those, starting with Rutgers, Illinois and Penn State, plus one of the next two over Iowa or Maryland. Combine that with 9-1 at home, that's 23-8, 13-7. I like @Nebrasketball1979's confidence in our going 14-6, though, and could even see us at 15-5 if things break right. That written, I'll take 11-9 and an eight seed if that's where this road leads.

Does 15-5 win a share of the league title? Over the past 10 seasons (with an 18-game schedule) 14-4 or worse has won at least a share 4 times. 

 

I think Michigan probably gets to 16 or 17 wins, but with so many really good teams in the league, having 2 or 3 or 4 teams share the title at 15-5 wouldn't be a huge shock.

 

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28 minutes ago, jayschool said:

Road games remaining ranked by mostly likely NU victory to least likely:

  1. Rutgers
  2. Illinois
  3. Penn State
  4. Iowa
  5. Maryland
  6. Indiana
  7. Purdue
  8. Michigan State
  9. Michigan

I think we can win four of those, starting with Rutgers, Illinois and Penn State, plus one of the next two over Iowa or Maryland. Combine that with 9-1 at home, that's 23-8, 13-7. I like @Nebrasketball1979's confidence in our going 14-6, though, and could even see us at 15-5 if things break right. That written, I'll take 11-9 and an eight seed if that's where this road leads.

 

That's how I played it out *at 13-7* in the pre-season prediction contest. ?

 

 

 

Edited by AuroranHusker
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From the "for what it's worth" department, Kentucky has been creeping up and is now tied with Nebraska for the #14 spot in KenPom:

 

12 Wisconsin B10 10-2 +22.51 113.9 19 91.4 11 64.6 347 +.001 172 +4.94 51 104.9 62 99.9 41 +3.23 91
13 Auburn SEC 10-2 +21.26 115.6 11 94.3 34 69.5 188 +.007 162 +4.14 71 104.2 102 100.1 47 +4.14 69
14 Nebraska B10 10-2 +20.79 114.5 17 93.7 30 67.1 294 +.016 144 +2.15 111 102.9 176 100.7 73 +0.40 171
15 Kentucky SEC 9-2 +20.79 115.0 13 94.3 33 70.5 147 +.057 89 -1.67 229 101.7 230 103.4 222 -1.67 225
16 Florida St. ACC 11-1 +20.26 112.7 24 92.5 17 71.8 89 +.031 117 +2.91 104 104.3 100 101.4 106 +2.91 103

 

I'd expect us to slide down to #15 tomorrow.

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We didn't slide anywhere. In fact, there has been no change at all.  Still #14 with the exact same rating as Kentucky.  No games yesterday helped with that I guess.

 

Only one game on the docket today, that's Creighton at home against UMKC.  KenPom has Creighton listed as 18 point favorites in that game so that's the number to pay attention to if we want to get any help from them in our ranking tomorrow.

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It was bound to happen.  Kentucky's win over Louisville propelled them past us and Wisconsin's loss didn't drop them enough to allow us to keep our #14 slot, so (for now at least) we have slipped down to #15.  We finished non-league play with a respectable 10-1 mark.  If you had 11-2 and a #15 KenPom ranking at New Year's as your preseason prediction, kudos to you.  ?

 

In the Big Ten, Northwestern and Penn State switched spots again and Illinois also slipped below Rutgers into last place.

 

In the non-con, Seton Hall is on a 6-game winning streak, with wins against Kentucky, St. John's and at Maryland and they...drop...two spots?  Not sure how that works.

 

Okay, here we go:

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-30-18

==========================
 
B1G (1-1):

4. Michigan

5. Michigan State

14. Wisconsin
15. Nebraska

19. Purdue

24. Indiana

25. Ohio State

31. Maryland

41. Iowa
45. Penn State
47. Northwestern

61. Minnesota - L

110. Rutgers

114. Illinois - W

 
Non-Conference (10-1):
352. Mississippi Valley State - W
301. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
57. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
214. Missouri State - W
10. Texas Tech - L
 
275. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
36. @Clemson - W
 
34. Creighton - W
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
85. Oklahoma State - W
 
168. Cal State Fullerton - W
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State - W
Edited by 49r
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When all the dust settled last night, we actually improved our ranking (at least relative to where we stood vs the team ranked directly ahead of us, Wisconsin). We gained that 1/100th of a point and now are in a virtual tie for #14th with Wisco.  (Ken has us at #15 so that's where I'll put us today but marked with an asterisk).  Here is a look at the teams around us:

 

13 Kentucky SEC 10-2 +22.07 115.7 11 93.6 30 69.5 179 +.061 77 +0.41 159 102.9 174 102.5 156 +0.41 163
14 Wisconsin B10 10-3 +21.18 113.8 19 92.6 19 65.3 336 -.027 226 +5.58 39 105.4 48 99.8 37 +4.43 58
15 Nebraska B10 11-3 +21.18 115.5 13 94.4 38 66.8 302 -.028 230 +4.10 63 103.8 128 99.7 35 +0.88 150
16 Iowa St. B12 11-2 +19.98 114.4 17 94.4 40 69.2 198 -.009 197 -1.68 236 102.9 177 104.6 292 -3.08 266
17 Florida SEC 8-4 +19.79 109.1 53 89.3 6 65.1 340 -.069 302 +4.94 51 105.1 60 100.2 44 +4.94 52

 

I will be rooting pretty strongly for Minnesota tonight against Wisconsin, hopefully they can cover the 9 point spread and we can slide into that #14 spot.

 

In the non-con, Seton Hall is doing us a big favor by continuing to win, up 10 spots after their win at Xavier last night!  Western Illinois jumped up 15 spots as well.  Okay I think that's it for today's update.

 

Here we go:

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 1-03-19

=========================
 
B1G (1-1):

4. Michigan

5. Michigan State

14. Wisconsin
*15. Nebraska

19. Purdue

23. Ohio State

27. Indiana

31. Maryland - L

39. Iowa
48. Penn State
52. Northwestern

63. Minnesota - L

109. Rutgers

113. Illinois - W

 
Non-Conference (10-1):
352. Mississippi Valley State - W
300. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
47. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
213. Missouri State - W
10. Texas Tech - L
 
260. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
36. @Clemson - W
 
30. Creighton - W
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
92. Oklahoma State - W
 
163. Cal State Fullerton - W
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State - W
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10 hours ago, 49r said:

When all the dust settled last night, we actually improved our ranking (at least relative to where we stood vs the team ranked directly ahead of us, Wisconsin). We gained that 1/100th of a point and now are in a virtual tie for #14th with Wisco.  (Ken has us at #15 so that's where I'll put us today but marked with an asterisk).  Here is a look at the teams around us:

 

13 Kentucky SEC 10-2 +22.07 115.7 11 93.6 30 69.5 179 +.061 77 +0.41 159 102.9 174 102.5 156 +0.41 163
14 Wisconsin B10 10-3 +21.18 113.8 19 92.6 19 65.3 336 -.027 226 +5.58 39 105.4 48 99.8 37 +4.43 58
15 Nebraska B10 11-3 +21.18 115.5 13 94.4 38 66.8 302 -.028 230 +4.10 63 103.8 128 99.7 35 +0.88 150
16 Iowa St. B12 11-2 +19.98 114.4 17 94.4 40 69.2 198 -.009 197 -1.68 236 102.9 177 104.6 292 -3.08 266
17 Florida SEC 8-4 +19.79 109.1 53 89.3 6 65.1 340 -.069 302 +4.94 51 105.1 60 100.2 44 +4.94 52

 

I will be rooting pretty strongly for Minnesota tonight against Wisconsin, hopefully they can cover the 9 point spread and we can slide into that #14 spot.

 

In the non-con, Seton Hall is doing us a big favor by continuing to win, up 10 spots after their win at Xavier last night!  Western Illinois jumped up 15 spots as well.  Okay I think that's it for today's update.

 

Here we go:

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 1-03-19

=========================
 
B1G (1-1):

4. Michigan

5. Michigan State

14. Wisconsin
*15. Nebraska

19. Purdue

23. Ohio State

27. Indiana

31. Maryland - L

39. Iowa
48. Penn State
52. Northwestern

63. Minnesota - L

109. Rutgers

113. Illinois - W

 
Non-Conference (10-1):
352. Mississippi Valley State - W
300. Southeastern Louisiana - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
47. Seton Hall - W
 
---Hall of Fame Classic---
213. Missouri State - W
10. Texas Tech - L
 
260. Western Illinois - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
36. @Clemson - W
 
30. Creighton - W
 
---Sanford Pentagon--
92. Oklahoma State - W
 
163. Cal State Fullerton - W
n/a. Southwest Minnesota State - W

I really appreciate this thread.  Would it be difficult to italicize the team's we play twice, if so I understand.

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58 minutes ago, jdw said:

I really appreciate this thread.  Would it be difficult to italicize the team's we play twice, if so I understand.

 

That's a good idea actually.  I've been thinking about removing the color coding since last year's tournament participants don't really matter any more.  I'll try to incorporate something like what you suggested with the next update.

 

Also, without even playing a game, we have now officially moved back ahead of Wisconsin into #14th again!  ?

 

12 Auburn SEC 11-2 +22.22 115.7 11 93.5 29 69.4 183 +.002 170 +2.69 96 104.1 103 101.4 99 +2.69 105
13 Kentucky SEC 10-2 +22.03 115.6 12 93.6 30 69.4 181 +.061 77 +0.39 158 102.8 173 102.5 158 +0.39 164
14 Nebraska B10 11-3 +21.29 115.6 13 94.3 39 66.8 303 -.028 231 +4.09 63 103.7 129 99.6 35 +0.87 149
15 Wisconsin B10 10-3 +21.24 113.7 19 92.5 20 65.2 336 -.027 227 +5.61 38 105.4 49 99.7 37 +4.45 58
16 Iowa St. B12 11-2 +20.02 114.4 17 94.4 40 69.1 198 -.009 197 -1.66 234 102.8 174 104.5 291 -3.06 267
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Seems like we've been in a death battle with Kentucky for the last few weeks.  Nevada's loss has propelled us into the #13 spot for now.

 

10 Kansas B12 12-2 +23.09 113.2 25 90.1 8 72.3 66 +.094 40 +9.37 2 108.5 1 99.1 9 +7.32 18
11 Auburn SEC 11-2 +22.54 116.4 10 93.9 26 69.4 179 +.002 184 +3.04 79 104.8 84 101.8 77 +3.04 99
12 Kentucky SEC 10-3 +21.64 115.5 15 93.9 27 70.1 144 +.014 150 +2.43 98 104.4 105 102.0 91 +0.77 150
13 Nebraska B10 11-3 +21.47 116.4 9 95.0 40 66.8 305 -.028 237 +3.93 53 104.0 134 100.1 27 +0.28 166
14 Iowa St. B12 12-2 +21.39 114.8 17 93.4 21 69.3 187 -.006 198 -0.23 182 104.1 127 104.4 248 -3.17 276
15 Nevada MWC 14-1 +21.30 115.7 13 94.4 31 69.1 204 +.107 26 +3.90 56 106.1 30 102.2 106 +3.30 88
16 Purdue B10 9-5 +20.27 117.8 6 97.6 71 67.6 264 -.077 310 +7.76 10 107.4 10 99.7 20 +5.07 45
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Per @jdw's request, I have updated the formatting on this list to remove the color coding for teams who made last year’s postseason and to reflect the teams we play twice in conference (by underlining the double-plays).  Let me know what you guys think of the change, good bad or indifferent.

 

Not too much change in the conference standings other than Michigan State and Michigan swapping places and Penn State is tumbling down the rankings (down 20 spots in the last month) and finally, Rutgers and Illinois are still in their struggle for last place.  Seems like I’m switching them every time I do an update.

 

Seton Hall wasn’t hurt too bad ending their 7 game win streak at DePaul, still hanging around in the top 50.  Not much else really of note among the non-con opponents.

 

Okay, Here we go:

 


 

KenPom rankings as of 1-07-19

=========================

 

B1G (1-3):

4. Michigan State

5. Michigan

15. Wisconsin

16. Nebraska

17. Purdue

22. Ohio State

27. Indiana

28. Maryland - L

43. Iowa - L

48. Minnesota - L

51. Northwestern

60. Penn State

106. Illinois - W

115. Rutgers

 

Non-Conference (10-1):

352. Mississippi Valley State - W

309. Southeastern Louisiana - W

 

---Gavitt Tip-Off---

49. Seton Hall - W

 

---Hall of Fame Classic---

224. Missouri State - W

9. Texas Tech - L

 

277. Western Illinois - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge---

36. @Clemson - W

 

34. Creighton - W

 

---Sanford Pentagon--

86. Oklahoma State - W

 

168. Cal State Fullerton - W

n/a. Southwest Minnesota State - W

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Holding at #16.

 

14 Kentucky SEC 11-3 +21.13 114.8 16 93.6 27 70.0 128 +.025 128 +2.03 107 104.1 92 102.0 126 +0.33 164
15 Auburn SEC 11-3 +21.09 114.8 18 93.7 28 69.6 153 -.011 204 +4.76 40 105.1 40 100.4 47 +3.06 98
16 Nebraska B10 12-4 +20.53 116.4 9 95.9 57 66.9 283 -.033 254 +5.41 27 104.4 70 98.9 19 +0.12 170
17 Purdue B10 9-6 +19.50 116.9 7 97.4 76 67.0 280 -.071 302 +9.43 5 107.8 5 98.4 9 +4.54 58
18 Buffalo MAC 14-1 +19.34 114.8 17 95.4 45 73.8 22 +.063 63 +3.46 61 104.1 90 100.6 58 +3.34 92
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      So without further ado, here we go!  Hope everyone enjoys!
       
       
      KenPom rankings as of 4-04-16.
      ==========================   B1G (0-0): 5. Michigan State 14. Purdue 15. Indiana 23. Iowa  25. Maryland 33. Wisconsin 58. Michigan 78. Northwestern 80. Ohio State 98. Nebraska 132. Illinois 146. Penn State 223. Minnesota 291. Rutgers   Non-Conference (0-0): 284. Sacramento State nr. University of Mary 152. Louisiana Tech   ---DirecTV Wooden Legacy--- 59. Dayton 79. / 214. UCLA / Portland 19. / 57./ 126. / 239. Texas A&M / Virginia Tech / New Mexico / Cal State Northridge   ---B1G/ACC Challenge---  48. @Clemson   221. South Dakota 37. Creighton 4. @Kansas 225. Gardner Webb 231. Southern
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