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2019 SG Jervay Green (Juco) - LOI

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23 minutes ago, nustudent said:

 

I'm pretty sure the metric predictions expected us to beat Minnesota.   We were 7-1 and they hadn't done much at that point. 

 

To answer your questions.  

A.   Losing a close hard fought game when you are only predicted to be a 1-2 point favorite, is not cause for immediate concern.   Now, perhaps the way you lost might be, but the fact that you lost is not.  

B.   With that being said, if it begins to occur more than once or twice, or considerably more than 50% of the time, then it does become a concern.   Essentially, a 1-2 point spread is going to be a pretty even matchup.  You should be going 50% in those types of games. 

C.   My point was also never about concern over a singular loss.  And I said as much.  My point was....I don't think it's real accurate to say that oddsmakers expected us to be 1-3 at this point.

 

I was going off beginning of the year, and Kenpom definitely had us losing to Minny.  I checked.  

 

Fair on points A, B.  

 

On C, I think we're going off of different sources at different times, which is fine.  I was negating that by saying either way it shows undeniable improvement as a program over the course of the last two seasons, and I don't see that trend changing under Miles given his proven recruiting abilities.  

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Not sure why this heated debate is occurring in a recruiting thread, but just for the record these are the KenPom predictions taken on game day:

 

 

 

So, technically, he had NU favored in 3 of 4 of the games.  But it's only technically.  The most recent three games have been coin flips and the outcomes of all three games pretty much bear that out.

 

Stretch that out over a larger sample size and our record in those games will prove to have been just about exactly 50-50.  Yes, even with Miles as our coach.  He is no better or worse at winning those games than anyone else I am pretty confident in that.

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6 hours ago, LK1 said:

 

This.  We weren't favored to beat Maryland or Iowa (who was ranked higher than us) on their home court.  I don't remember Minnesota but we aren't going to be favored more than a point or two on anyone else's court save maybe Rutgers or Illinois.  

I don’t really care if we are favored or not. Duke will probably be favored in every game they play this year will you be disappointed in their season if they lose one game they were favored in. Obviously not, was it so much better when Doc’s teams were better than expected and got 10th in conference instead of 12th. I would rather underperform and make the tournament than over preform and miss the NIT.  The point is we haven’t lost any game that wasn’t a Q1 opponent. Do you really care more about expectations than results? If that’s how you enjoy sports you do you. I just can’t imagine thinking about sports that way but maybe soon people do.

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1 hour ago, 49r said:

Not sure why this heated debate is occurring in a recruiting thread, but just for the record these are the KenPom predictions taken on game day:

 

 

 

So, technically, he had NU favored in 3 of 4 of the games.  But it's only technically.  The most recent three games have been coin flips and the outcomes of all three games pretty much bear that out.

 

Stretch that out over a larger sample size and our record in those games will prove to have been just about exactly 50-50.  Yes, even with Miles as our coach.  He is no better or worse at winning those games than anyone else I am pretty confident in that.

I did make the same comment that started this as a new thread on the main board if someone who knows how wants to we can combine the discussion to the If miles is fired thread. It has a perfect place to call home.

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5 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

I don’t really care if we are favored or not. Duke will probably be favored in every game they play this year will you be disappointed in their season if they lose one game they were favored in. Obviously not, was it so much better when Doc’s teams were better than expected and got 10th in conference instead of 12th. I would rather underperform and make the tournament than over preform and miss the NIT.  The point is we haven’t lost any game that wasn’t a Q1 opponent. Do you really care more about expectations than results? If that’s how you enjoy sports you do you. I just can’t imagine thinking about sports that way but maybe soon people do.

I have no idea how you interpreted what I typed based on this commentary, but to be clear:

 

I’m glad expectations are high as they are proof of program improvement.

 

We aren’t underperforming.  This is, to date, Miles’ best year ever.  I agree that the losses we have (all Q1) aren’t bad losses.  

 

I think TM is doing a great job with the program and will earn an extension based on the results of this season.  I care about results—all of them so far—and on the whole, we are meeting most people’s high expectations so far this season.  

 

Am I missing something?  

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LK1 said:

the losses we have (all Q1) aren’t bad losses.

 

Agree they aren't bad losses per se, but apart from the Tech game, maybe, they are frustrating because they were all very winnable.  But that goes back to your point about expectations...and boy is it nice to have expectations like we have this year.

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9 minutes ago, LK1 said:

I have no idea how you interpreted what I typed based on this commentary, but to be clear:

 

I’m glad expectations are high as they are proof of program improvement.

 

We aren’t underperforming.  This is, to date, Miles’ best year ever.  I agree that the losses we have (all Q1) aren’t bad losses.  

 

I think TM is doing a great job with the program and will earn an extension based on the results of this season.  I care about results—all of them so far—and on the whole, we are meeting most people’s high expectations so far this season.  

 

Am I missing something?  

 

 

 

 

Sorry wasn’t directing this particularly at you. But we just spent like 5 posts on if we were favored or not against Minnesota. It’s something I’ve been hearing on instagram as well so I was actually wondering if people think about sports this way. Sports are about enjoyment and different people enjoy sports in different ways. I enjoyed watching a team lose on purpose (not Nebraska) 😂 for multiple years but I know some people wouldn’t imagine doing that. So I am just making sure I haven’t been missing a common way of enjoying sports. 

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40 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

Sorry wasn’t directing this particularly at you. But we just spent like 5 posts on if we were favored or not against Minnesota. It’s something I’ve been hearing on instagram as well so I was actually wondering if people think about sports this way. Sports are about enjoyment and different people enjoy sports in different ways. I enjoyed watching a team lose on purpose (not Nebraska) 😂 for multiple years but I know some people wouldn’t imagine doing that. So I am just making sure I haven’t been missing a common way of enjoying sports. 

 

You must be referring to #TrustTheProcess. I concur on that front. Only way Philly was going to get out of the funk of 41-41 forever, it seemed.

 

 

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1 minute ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

You must be referring to #TrustTheProcess. I concur on that front. Only way Philly was going to get out of the funk of 41-41 forever, it seemed.

 

 

That’s correct 👌🏽 

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Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD

 

Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD

 

Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD Jervay Green = STUD

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1 minute ago, B-town hoopsfan said:

Question: would you consider a top 5 JUCO to be the equivalent of a 5 star high school kid? 

 

I would say that I would expect them to be able to perform as a 5* kid out of high school would.  The reason behind that would be experience.  While both players should be able to perform at the same level coming in, I would expect the 5* high school player to have a much higher ceiling where a top 5 JUCO should be pretty much up to speed with their game.

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13 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

No way, and it's not even close, IMO.  Top-5 JuCo would probably equate roughly to a Rival's 150 type HS recruit.  Maybe ESPN 100.  Maybe.

This^. Checking through last years top 10 on JUCOrecruiting.com there were 1 or 2 guys that could be labeled as contributors on power 5 teams. I don't think any of those top JUCO guys have been a regular starter on a power 5 team (let alone a NCAA tournament team). I certainally wouldn't tack 5 star expectations on a JUCO kid - maybe 4th or 5th option or 1st guy off the bench type expectations. 

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2 hours ago, BirdsOnTheBat said:

I believe we were underdogs, in at least a couple of places, in the Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana games and a favorite tonight.

If you are referring to Vegas odds, we opened as a favorite against Maryland but ended up as a 2.5 pt dog.   Iowa we were favorites.  We haven't played Indiana yet, if you mean Minnesota, we were 3 point favorites

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3 hours ago, 49r said:

 

No way, and it's not even close, IMO.  Top-5 JuCo would probably equate roughly to a Rival's 150 type HS recruit.  Maybe ESPN 100.  Maybe.

 

I disagree.  Top 5 juco probably equates in skill and ability to a Rivals 4-star.  Maybe even high 4-star.  They get to campus older, more mature, and more physically ready than a high school kid.  Many times, it takes them a full semester or more to really get their feet underneath them and adjust to the next level (which I expect will probably happen with Jervay next season.)  But if you land a top 5 juco recruit, you're going to be getting a probable day-1 starter.  And that's what I expect from Jervay.

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I think it is a crapshoot when it comes to Juco recruits making a major impact at the next level.  The number of kids going to prep school has really cut into the Juco talent pool so the talent isn't what it was a few years ago. That being said I think Green will be a good one.

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1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I disagree.  Top 5 juco probably equates in skill and ability to a Rivals 4-star.  Maybe even high 4-star.  They get to campus older, more mature, and more physically ready than a high school kid.  Many times, it takes them a full semester or more to really get their feet underneath them and adjust to the next level (which I expect will probably happen with Jervay next season.)  But if you land a top 5 juco recruit, you're going to be getting a probable day-1 starter.  And that's what I expect from Jervay.

I don't really know but at this point it's not really about stars or rankings. We have two years of basketball that we can go off of. We have his vertical we know he has a long (not sure how long) wing span. We have a lot of data to project his future off of so I don't really care if he's the number 3 player in these rankings. Does someone really have enough time to follow 100 players as much as we follow Jervay? Probably not except that I don't know that much about juco overall and maybe his ridiculous stats were more normal than I thought in Juco. Using my own eyes I have made clear I think he will be incredible. One stat I just noticed that is concerning is that he is only shooting 55% on FT. That would probably be more concerning if he wasn't taking 3's at such a high volume but it is an obvious statistical indicator of projected success and should not be totally discarded as a factor when we project success. The reason I am projecting him to be such a great player is because of his lack of weaknesses. Even when you look at the top of the NBA draft there are almost no players who are the complete package. Check out the players in the top 10 of the last 5 NBA drafts you will be hard-pressed to find a player who is either incredibly athletic or tall, who also has the ability to shoot the three, and can put the ball on the floor with success. That’s not even mentioning passing which seems to be there and defense which he should have the ability to be great in with his athletic ability. If he is not able to shoot the three or he doesn't particularly try on defense his stock falls a lot for me. But even if he doesn’t live up to my dream scenario I think he could still be a slightly lesser James Palmer and I can be okay with that.

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