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Selection Committee Games of Interest

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20 minutes ago, tcp said:

 

 

That really looks bad for us. It shouldn't but it does. There's too much hype associated with too many of those entries for us to overcome. Sigh. What a bittersweet season this will end up as. 

 

Which teams have hype? Bama and maybe OU (though the Trey Young shine is long gone, IMO). There reset are a bunch of teams that didn't take care of business and played themselves onto the bubble.

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11 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

VCU 132/Rhode Island 16- 11am  NBC Sports Network  Rhode Island -9  We want Rhode Island I believe to just wire this tourney
Texas St 247/Louisiana 55-11:30 ESPN3  Louisiana -12  Need Texas St. here to remove all doubt about Louisiana getting at large and would bump us over them in RPI
Alabama 46/Auburn 8 - 12 ESPN  Auburn - 6 1/2  Among the most important of the day.  NEED AUBURN BADLY
Georgia 72/Kentucky 17 -2:25 ESPN Kentucky -5  Need Kentucky to end this Georgia momentum
Western Kentucky 44/Old Dominion 73 - 3pm CBS Sports Network  Western Kentucky -1  Not high leverage situation but I think we want Western Kentucky to remove any doubt about them getting a wild card.  Also would drop Old Dominion out of Q1 for teams playing them at their place(Middle Tennessee St)
Richmond 177/St. Bonaventure 22-  5pm NBC Sports Network  St. Bonaventure - 7 1/2  We want Richmond badly here. The exception is if Rhode Island gets bounced earlier in the proceedings
Providence 35/Xavier3 -5:30 FS1 Xavier - 7 1/2  Not high leverage at all, but just in case Providence not a lock we need Xavier.  Also prevents Providence from becoming a Q1 home game for folks
Kent St. 149/Buffalo 31- 5:30 CBS Sports Network  Buffalo -11  Need Buffalo to win this tourney or we have possible bid stealing disaster. 
Temple 45/Wichita St. 14 - 6pm ESPNU Wichita St. - 10 1/2  Need Wichita St. Temple win they seriously start entering the discussion 
Mississippi St. 67/Tennessee 10 - 6pm SEC Network Tennessee - 7  Need Tennessee to eliminate Mississippi St. from discussion(and keep us above them in RPI)
Kansas St. 51/Kansas 6 - 6pm ESPN Kansas - 7 1/2  Need Kansas to get metric boost and also would help keep Kansas St from becoming Q1 neutral court win for Az St

St. Louis 141/Davidson 81- 7:30 NBC Sports Network Davidson -8  need St. Louis as Davidson one of the highest probability bid stealers there is
UCLA 34/Arizona 18 -8pm Pac 12 Network  Arizona - 4 1/2  Need Arizona just in case UCLA not a lock yet, and it also prevents UCLA from being a q1 home win for people including Arizona St, Oregon and Utah
San Diego St./Nevada 8pm CBS Sports Network  Nevada -3  BADLY need Nevada here and them to go on to win tourney.  This is a direct bid on the line if they lose
UCF 77/Houston 19 -8:30pm ESPNU  Houston -9  Need UCF for metrics boost
Oregon 63 /USC 33 -  10:30 Oregon USC -3  Need USC  The time has come to get rid of Oregon before they get a bid.  The negative is it would become a Q1 home win over USC most likely for Az. St and UCLA.  Oregon losing would keep Oregon behind us in RPI
Seattle 163/New Mexico St. 48  10:30 ESPN3 New Mexico St. - 11 1/2  Need New Mexico St. as we don't want to sweat them taking an at large bid

 

Others who we need to win for minor reasons not significant enough to be listed above

Cincinnati/SMU

 

Updated.

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Saturday's Games of Interest:

 

UMBC/Vermont - going with Vermont for the autobid just in case
UT Arlington/Louisiana - again, going with Louisiana just in case
Memphis/Cincinnati - can't give Memphis a shot at the autobid
Saint Joseph's/Rhode Island - critical to have URI win this one
Alabama/Kentucky - Alabama likely sealed their bid, but why not have them lose
Arkansas/Tennessee - unless you see a loss shift quadrants, looking to have Arkansas lose
Davidson/St. Bonaventure - time to root for the Bonnies to knock off a 3-bid A10 threat
West Virginia/Kansas - RPI boost and "lost to Big 12 and Big Ten champs; KU in final 30 seconds"
New Mexico/San Diego State - Nevada really screwed this one up, let's make it an even worse loss
Providence/Villanova - Providence is in, but why not have them lose
Toledo/Buffalo - going for Buffalo to get the autobid
Marshall/Western Kentucky - going with WKU for the autobid
USC/Arizona - need Arizona to win this one
Grand Canyon/New Mexico State - going with NMSU to get the autobid

 

Quadrant Movement Magic:
(If you find any reason to root for/against another team just for shifts in quadrants, put them here)

 

Today's a big day with 14 autobids about to be earned. That's a very quick way to start thinning out the bubble opportunities. Root for the current at-large teams to win.

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1 hour ago, TimSmiles said:

if usc hangs on and no unexpected auto bids,

 

you got these 14 teams fighting for 5 spots

 

UCLA

Texas

Oklahoma

Alabama

Middle Tennessee

Louisville

Oklahoma State

Notre Dame

Arizona State

Syracuse 

Marquette

Baylor

Penn State

Nebraska

 

It's too bad "last x-games" isn't on the stat sheets anymore this year. Here they are:

 

Last 10 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 8-2
1. Nebraska: 8-2

3. Baylor: 6-4
3. Marquette: 6-4
3. Notre Dame: 6-4
3. Penn State: 6-4
3. UCLA: 6-4
8. Oklahoma State: 5-5
8. Syracuse: 5-5
10. Alabama: 4-6
10. Arizona State: 4-6
10. Louisville: 4-6
10. Texas: 4-6
14. Oklahoma: 2-8

 

Last 15 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 12-3
2. Nebraska: 11-4

3. Penn State: 8-7

3. Syracuse: 8-7
3. UCLA: 8-7

6. Alabama: 7-8
6. Arizona State: 7-8
6. Baylor: 7-8
6. Marquette: 7-8
6. Notre Dame: 7-8
6. Oklahoma State: 7-8
12. Texas: 7-8
13. Louisville: 6-9
14. Oklahoma: 4-11

Edited by HuskerFever

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As one who doesn't pay much attention to metrics and relies , basically, on the "eye test" criteria, I fail to understand why the teams who have peaked at the end of the year are not given some priority. After watching all these games it appears to me that we are better than 2/3 of the so called "bubble teams" and some who have already been declared "in" by the gurus. ( and, with a polite nod to Bill Walton, we would not do well against UCLA). I think it is the old approach-approach mentality with those like Loonardi who obviously don't watch many games. They predicted that Nebraska would be terrible at the beginning of the year, and since NU did well in the B10, the league must not be good. Simple as that. Hopefully some on the committee will take a more old school approach, whether they admit it or not.

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5 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

It's too bad "last x-games" isn't on the stat sheets anymore this year. Here they are:

 

Last 10 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 8-2
1. Nebraska: 8-2

3. Baylor: 6-4
3. Marquette: 6-4
3. Notre Dame: 6-4
3. Penn State: 6-4
3. UCLA: 6-4
8. Oklahoma State: 5-5
8. Syracuse: 5-5
10. Alabama: 4-6
10. Arizona State: 4-6
10. Louisville: 4-6
10. Texas: 4-6
14. Oklahoma: 2-8

 

Last 15 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 12-3
2. Nebraska: 11-4

3. Penn State: 8-7

3. Syracuse: 8-7
3. UCLA: 8-7

6. Alabama: 7-8
6. Arizona State: 7-8
6. Baylor: 7-8
6. Marquette: 7-8
6. Notre Dame: 7-8
6. Oklahoma State: 7-8
12. Texas: 7-8
13. Louisville: 6-9
14. Oklahoma: 4-11

Wow, the spooners have been absolutely horrendous the last 2 months. How can you possibly reward a team with a tourney birth that finishes their season the way they have? No way they should be in, but they probably will be!

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Lunardi's bubble watch after Friday's games:

 

Last Four Byes
NC State: N/A
Florida State: N/A
USC: TONIGHT neut Arizona
UCLA: N/A

 

Last Four In
Saint Mary's: N/A
Texas: N/A
Oklahoma: N/A
Arizona State: N/A

 

First Four Out
Louisville: N/A
Notre Dame: N/A
Baylor: N/A
Oklahoma State: N/A

 

Next Four Out
Middle Tennessee: N/A
Syracuse: N/A
Marquette: N/A
Penn State: N/A

 

Lunardi's Most Hated Team

Nebraska

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7 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

It's too bad "last x-games" isn't on the stat sheets anymore this year. Here they are:

 

Last 10 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 8-2
1. Nebraska: 8-2

3. Baylor: 6-4
3. Marquette: 6-4
3. Notre Dame: 6-4
3. Penn State: 6-4
3. UCLA: 6-4
8. Oklahoma State: 5-5
8. Syracuse: 5-5
10. Alabama: 4-6
10. Arizona State: 4-6
10. Louisville: 4-6
10. Texas: 4-6
14. Oklahoma: 2-8

 

Last 15 Games

1. Middle Tennessee: 12-3
2. Nebraska: 11-4

3. Penn State: 8-7

3. Syracuse: 8-7
3. UCLA: 8-7

6. Alabama: 7-8
6. Arizona State: 7-8
6. Baylor: 7-8
6. Marquette: 7-8
6. Notre Dame: 7-8
6. Oklahoma State: 7-8
12. Texas: 7-8
13. Louisville: 6-9
14. Oklahoma: 4-11

 

Here's another way to cut the data:

 

AP Top 25

1. Alabama: 6-2 (75%)
2. Oklahoma: 6-4 (60%)
3. Oklahoma State: 6-6 (50%)
3. Arizona State: 2-2 (50%)
3. UCLA: 2-2 (50%)
6. Texas: 5-7 (41%)
7. Penn State: 3-5 (37%)
8. Nebraska: 2-5 (28%)
9. Baylor: 2-10 (16%)
10. Syracuse: 1-7 (14%)
10. Marquette: 1-7 (12%)
12. Notre Dame: 1-7 (12%)
12. Louisville: 1-7 (12%)
14. Middle Tennessee: 0-1 (0%)

 

Coaches Top 25

1. Alabama: 6-2 (75%)
2. UCLA: 2-1 (66%)
3. Oklahoma: 6-4 (60%)
4. Oklahoma State: 6-6 (50%)
4. Arizona State: 2-2 (50%)
6. Texas: 5-7 (41%)
7. Penn State: 3-5 (37%)
8. Marquette: 3-7 (30%)
9. Nebraska: 2-5 (28%)
10. Baylor: 2-10 (16%)
10. Syracuse: 1-6 (16%)
12. Notre Dame: 1-7 (14%)
13. Middle Tennessee: 0-1 (0%)
13. Louisville: 0-9 (0%)

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UMBC 131/Vermontb51 -  10am ESPN2  Vermont - 10 1/2  Need Vermont, just in case.  Not worth rooting to pass them in RPI I don't think.  A Vermont win would result in an epicly cheap ass Q1 win for St. Bonaventure
UT Arlington 116/Louisiana  54 - 11:30 ESPN3  Louisiana - 6 I suppose Louisiana is best to go ahead and win tourney.  Loss and we would pass them in RPI but probably not worth messing with
Memphis 105/Cincinnati 7 - 12 CBS Cincinnati - 16  Need Cincinnati here to clinch no bid stealing in this league
Saint Joseph's 74/Rhode Island 14 - 12pm CBS Sports Network Rhode Island - 7 1/2  Need Rhode Island
Alabama 36/Kentucky 18 - 12 ESPN Kentucky -4  Big one here potentially.  I am not convinced Alabama is a lock at 19-15  Also prevents home wins over Alabama from becoming Q1 wins for people.  Lord knows this damn league has enough fraudulent Q1 wins as it is

Davidson/St. Bonaventure - 2:30 CBS Sports Network Davidson -2  It is time to get rid of Davidson.  This is especially the case if Rhode Island were to lose in earlier game.  St. Bonaventure isn't good but they are probably in now.  We cannot have 3 teams come out of this crappy league.  A loss by Davidson also likely makes them a Q2 instead of Q1 for games that teams played at Davidson which include Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure


West Virginia/Kansas - 5pm ESPN Kansas -1  Need Kansas to preserve top 57 in RPi.  Likely drop to 59 if they lose.  Outside shot of dropping West Virginia games people hosted down to q2 if they lose as well(OU Texas Ok St Baylor Kansas St)
New Mexico  113/San Diego State 68 - 5pm CBS San Diego St - 4 1/2  I think we want San Diego St just to be done with it.  They have built a sneaky decent resume 

Toledo 73/Buffalo 30 - 6pm ESPN2 Buffalo - 6 1/2  Badly need Buffalo here Only benefit of loss is bumping Syracuse win over them to q2 as well as Texas Am
Marshall 96/Western Kentucky 35 - 7:30 CBS Sports Network  Western Kentucky -6 Need Western Kentucky to lock this up
USC 33/Arizona 17 - 9pm FS1  Arizona -3  Need Arizona although probably don't matter much.  Does prevent USC games at places from becoming Q1 home games for those folks(UCLA, Arizona St, Utah, Oregon)
Grand Canyon 156/New Mexico State 42 - 9pm ESPNU  New Mexico St -5  Need New Mexico St to lock this one up.  Not worth messing with. 

 

Others not important enough to go above

 

Tennessee win could bump Arkansas games at people from becoming Q1 home games(Alabama, AM, Missouri, Miss St)

Villanova win could keep Providence out of Q1 for games they played on road for teams(Marquette, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler)

 

Edited by royalfan

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12 hours ago, royalfan said:

UMBC 131/Vermont 51 -  10am ESPN2  Vermont - 10 1/2  Need Vermont, just in case.  Not worth rooting to pass them in RPI I don't think.  A Vermont win would result in an epicly cheap ass Q1 win for St. Bonaventure
UT Arlington 116/Louisiana  54 - 11:30 ESPN3  Louisiana - 6 I suppose Louisiana is best to go ahead and win tourney.  Loss and we would pass them in RPI but probably not worth messing with
Memphis 105/Cincinnati 7 - 12 CBS Cincinnati - 16  Need Cincinnati here to clinch no bid stealing in this league
Saint Joseph's 74/Rhode Island 14 - 12pm CBS Sports Network Rhode Island - 7 1/2  Need Rhode Island
Alabama 36/Kentucky 18 - 12 ESPN Kentucky -4  Big one here potentially.  I am not convinced Alabama is a lock at 19-15  Also prevents home wins over Alabama from becoming Q1 wins for people.  Lord knows this damn league has enough fraudulent Q1 wins as it is

Davidson/St. Bonaventure - 2:30 CBS Sports Network Davidson -2  It is time to get rid of Davidson.  This is especially the case if Rhode Island were to lose in earlier game.  St. Bonaventure isn't good but they are probably in now.  We cannot have 3 teams come out of this crappy league.  A loss by Davidson also likely makes them a Q2 instead of Q1 for games that teams played at Davidson which include Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure -- (CHANGED THE PICK TO FAVOR DAVIDSON IN THIS ONE)
West Virginia/Kansas - 5pm ESPN Kansas -1  Need Kansas to preserve top 57 in RPi.  Likely drop to 59 if they lose.  Outside shot of dropping West Virginia games people hosted down to q2 if they lose as well(OU Texas Ok St Baylor Kansas St)
New Mexico  113/San Diego State 68 - 5pm CBS San Diego St - 4 1/2  I think we want San Diego St just to be done with it.  They have built a sneaky decent resume 
Toledo 73/Buffalo 30 - 6pm ESPN2 Buffalo - 6 1/2  Badly need Buffalo here Only benefit of loss is bumping Syracuse win over them to q2 as well as Texas Am

Marshall 96/Western Kentucky 35 - 7:30 CBS Sports Network  Western Kentucky -6 Need Western Kentucky to lock this up
USC 33/Arizona 17 - 9pm FS1  Arizona -3  Need Arizona although probably don't matter much.  Does prevent USC games at places from becoming Q1 home games for those folks(UCLA, Arizona St, Utah, Oregon)
Grand Canyon 156/New Mexico State 42 - 9pm ESPNU  New Mexico St -5  Need New Mexico St to lock this one up.  Not worth messing with.

 

Others not important enough to go above

Arkansas/Tennessee win could bump Arkansas games at people from becoming Q1 home games(Alabama, AM, Missouri, Miss St)
Providence/Villanova win could keep Providence out of Q1 for games they played on road for teams(Marquette, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler)

 

Updating throughout the day.

Edited by HuskerFever

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21 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

UMBC just knocked off Vermont with a three-point shot with 0.6 seconds to go.

 

This shouldn't be a two-bid league, but we could be sweating it for a bit.

 

We’ll know either way befor they do the way they are doing it this year haha!  N before V

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Alabama & Kentucky playing like this is a Thanksgiving weekend game in Hawaii where neither team wants to be in the gym. Just missing the coaches in Hawaiian shirts.

 

I have not watched the SEC much this season - this league has been awful this week. Not impressed.

 

 

EDIT: And Dickie V just said the SEC is the top league top to bottom in the country. Holy crap. I'm living in a crazy world. :lol:

Edited by throwback

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2 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Rhode Island another team the outscheduled the crap out of us in the "buy" games.  Much like Nevada.  It is like magic how their metrics are so good when you look at who they played.  

 

We have to really root for the Bonnies if URI loses.

 

Fortunately the AAC has 2 other heavy hitters on the other side of the bracket so we need to go for Wichita State/Houston if Cincy ends up losing this one.

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2 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Louisiana's stats before this game were: RPI 54, KPI 89, SOR 58

 

Q1: 0-1

Q2: 1-1 (won at #116 UT Arlington)

Q3: 9-2 (losses at #140 Ole Miss and at #141 Georgia State)

Q4: 15-1 (loss to #305 Little Rock at home)

 

Yeah not a big concern.  

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Just now, northwillriseagain said:

At least we know the Big Ten is too stupid to try that.

 

I'm going to struggle with the Big Ten and BTN over the next few seasons. The conference wasn't there for us when we needed them the most. And if we make it into this tournament, they shouldn't get any of the glory for getting 5 teams in.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for keeping it real and having some transparency, but they had nothing positive to say about us. It was always "they still have more work to do." Not "they've done very well in conference play, they have these stats/wins/etc., they were asked to do a lot on the road." None of that. I won't forget how this was handled by the Big Ten for awhile.

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