Selection Committee Games of Interest

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

15 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

That was my first time watching Nevada those two brothers are legit. Reminded me of JPJ with their length and how they get to the rim 

Yeah, they're really good. Both have great length and can shoot the he'll out of the ball. One of the Martin brothers avgs 19, one 13. And one has a really weird curled up jump shot, but it works! Then tonight they had this Stephens guy who shot 6-8 from deep. Both fun teams, I doubt Boise will miss tho unfortunately unless they get upset 

[Agsker]

Yeah, they're really good. Both have great length and can shoot the he'll out of the ball. One of the Martin brothers avgs 19, one 13. And one has a really weird curled up jump shot, but it works! Then tonight they had this Stephens guy who shot 6-8 from deep. Both fun teams, I doubt Boise will miss tho unfortunately unless they get upset 

I think the Wolfpack could be very dangerous come tourney time. Very good squad in Reno.


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[HuskerFever]

4 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Added games, rpi, time, how to watch, line and who I feel we need are all added to Fever report.

 

South Florida 289/ UCF  57- 5pm ESPN News UCF -13  Need UCF
Iowa 138 /Michigan  39 - 5:30 BTN Michigan - 11 1/2 Pros and cons both ways.  I personally think chances are low of Michigan getting into top 30, so I think better off rooting for Iowa as Michigan is hogging up a spot that could be ours.  I know most of you feel otherwise and that is fine.  Michigan not losing anyway.  -- (gotta trump Royal on this one. Just too skeptical about this Tier nonsense this year)
Villanova 3/Providence 43-6pm FS1 Villanova - 9 1/2 Need Villanova here
Clemson 4/Florida State 46 - 6pm ESPN Full Court/ESPN3  FSU - 4 1/2  Need Clemson
Virginia Tech 59 /Duke 10  6pm ESPN2 Duke - 11 1/2  Need Duke
Mississippi State 58 /Vanderbilt  125 - 6pm SEC Network Vanderbilt - 1 1/2  Need Vanderbilt

Kansas State 67/Oklahoma State 91 - 6pm ESPNU Oklahoma St - 3 1/2  Need Oklahoma St. 
Illinois 186/Indiana 108 - 7:30 BTN Indiana -9  We need Illionois
Seton Hall 24/Xavier  2- 8pm FS1 Xavier - 5 1/2  Need Xavier
Kentucky 20 /Auburn  9- 8pm ESPN2 Auburn - 9 1/2  Need Auburn
NC State  70/Syracuse 37 - 8pm ESPN Full Court.ESPN3 Syracuse -5 I think Syracuse slightly better for us to have better shot at both not making it
Georgia 83/Florida 47 -8 pm SEC Network FLORIDA -10  I think Georgia is better as a loss here could put Florida much closer to the bubble if they have a losing streak
Memphis 136/SMU  81- 8pm ESPNU  SMU - 6 1/2 need Memphis
St. John's 66/DePaul 166- 8pm CBS sports Network  St Johns -1  Need St Johns
Air Force 234/UNLV 114- 9pm http://themw.com/sports/2017/8/31/watch-live.aspx  UNLV - 12 1/2  Need Air Force
Nevada 15/Boise State 36 - 10pm ESPNU  Boise St - 2 1/2  Need Nevada
Wyoming 72/San Diego State  132 - 10pm CBS Sports Network  SD st - 7 1/2  Need SD ST. 

 

Others

Valparaiso 183 at Loyola-Chicago 51  7pm ESPN3  Loyola - 11 1/2  Valpo wouldnt hurt to be safe

 

Updated.

[HuskerActuary]

Check this out. This is really neat. It's a bubble team's rooting guide that determines the most important games of the day that could impact your team's NCAA chances the most. While I take some offense with this site's current NCAA tourney odds for Nebraska - it's one of the lowest of any site out there right now, at 13% - this is pretty cool from a nerd's perspective.

 

http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Nebraska

[Nebrasketball1979]

9 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Check this out. This is really neat. It's a bubble team's rooting guide that determines the most important games of the day that could impact your team's NCAA chances the most. While I take some offense with this site's current NCAA tourney odds for Nebraska - it's one of the lowest of any site out there right now, at 13% - this is pretty cool from a nerd's perspective.

 

http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Nebraska

 

That is an interesting tool but I'm personally not sure I'm buying that our current tourney odds drop almost 2% if Stetson loses at home to Keenesaw St.  

 

To get really geeky, that is a nearly 2% absolute drop in our percentage but on a relative basis it is an almost 10% drop from their projection if Stetson were to win the game.

[mewfert]

26 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

 

That is an interesting tool but I'm personally not sure I'm buying that our current tourney odds drop almost 2% if Stetson loses at home to Keenesaw St.  

 

To get really geeky, that is a nearly 2% absolute drop in our percentage but on a relative basis it is an almost 10% drop from their projection if Stetson were to win the game.

 

Definitely a goofy result, mostly driven by the fundamental goofiness of RPI: KSU losing would drop Nebraska one spot in the projected RPI and projected resume rank (two of the five inputs to the model), which is enough to have that effect. RPI creates a lot of essentially random, chaotic interactions. Just from eyeballing this, I'd say anything under 3% leverage, maybe even 5%, is probably not "real"—but maybe still fun to have a rooting interest in some Atlantic Sun games.

[royalfan]

While neat, it doesn't seem reliable at all.  You can't tell me we have a 2.7 percent better chance of dancing if Maryland beats Rutgers.  We played Rutgers twice so all 6 metrics will be more favorable if Rutgers wins.  

[royalfan]

Also the Stetson example shows this is just something fun to take a gander at but not to be taken seriously.  

[mewfert]

33 minutes ago, royalfan said:

While neat, it doesn't seem reliable at all.  You can't tell me we have a 2.7 percent better chance of dancing if Maryland beats Rutgers.  We played Rutgers twice so all 6 metrics will be more favorable if Rutgers wins.  

That one is interesting, actually: what's happening there is that if Maryland loses to Rutgers, its projected RPI falls to 78, which means that Nebraska's home win over Maryland falls from Q2 to Q3, which drops their "resume" rank. The Rutgers win would indeed raise Nebraska's raw RPI, but my model obviously thinks the loss of a Q2 win would be more important. Subjectively, I agree with that, especially in Nebraska's situation where the lack of committee-defined "quality wins" is the gaping hole in their resumé.

 

But overall I definitely agree none of this is to be taken seriously.

Edited February 15, 2018 by mewfert

[royalfan]

Not even considering the raw rpi gain by rutgers winning our odds wouldn't be 3 percent worse by Maryland dropping to q3.  Maybe this thing is way too rpi based to be accurate and not using the other data enough or at all?  I don't feel the quadrants will matter as much as most in the end.  Have a hard time believing ten men selected to this would be that stupid.  

[jdostal]

I think the formula is quadrant-heavy rather than RPI-heavy. Of course RPI issues compound the quadrant issues.

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

1 hour ago, royalfan said:

Not even considering the raw rpi gain by rutgers winning our odds wouldn't be 3 percent worse by Maryland dropping to q3.  Maybe this thing is way too rpi based to be accurate and not using the other data enough or at all?  I don't feel the quadrants will matter as much as most in the end.  Have a hard time believing ten men selected to this would be that stupid.  

 

Even if you ignore the quadrants, it's still vital to have a quality set of wins. We would still want Michigan, Maryland, Boston College, and Northwestern to win as much as possible down the stretch to improve our four best wins. Same with Penn State (assuming we beat them next weekend). Making those wins look impressive is far more important than the microscopic bump we'd get in RPI from a team we played twice beating a team we played once. It's a 0.0006 difference. That's very unlikely to even move us one spot in the rankings.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

[basketballjones]

4 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Even if you ignore the quadrants, it's still vital to have a quality set of wins. We would still want Michigan, Maryland, Boston College, and Northwestern to win as much as possible down the stretch to improve our four best wins. Same with Penn State (assuming we beat them next weekend). Making those wins look impressive is far more important than the microscopic bump we'd get in RPI from a team we played twice beating a team we played once. Seriously, it's a 0.0006 difference. That's very unlikely to even move us one spot in the rankings.

How have I gone this long on this board without recognizing one of the better screen-names around. Great choice. 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

Just now, basketballjones said:

How have I gone this long on this board without recognizing one of the better screen-names around. Great choice. 

 

Haha thanks. I didn't join till last month. Had an account on here years ago, but left and couldn't remember my screen name when I came back.

[royalfan]

42 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Even if you ignore the quadrants, it's still vital to have a quality set of wins. We would still want Michigan, Maryland, Boston College, and Northwestern to win as much as possible down the stretch to improve our four best wins. Same with Penn State (assuming we beat them next weekend). Making those wins look impressive is far more important than the microscopic bump we'd get in RPI from a team we played twice beating a team we played once. It's a 0.0006 difference. That's very unlikely to even move us one spot in the rankings.

 

Not all that big a deal, certainly not 3 percent chance difference, is the point, and if Michigan takes a spot that would be ours it would be an unmitigated disaster were they to keep winning, versus slumping. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by royalfan

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

15 minutes ago, royalfan said:

 

Not all that big a deal, certainly not 3 percent chance difference, is the point, and if Michigan takes a spot that would be ours it would be an unmitigated disaster were they to keep winning, versus slumping. 

 

Maybe not 3 percent. But my point is that we should be rooting for the teams I listed. I think the one spot that Michigan would occupy is far less important than us having an impressive win. Michigan finishing in Q1 would jump us up multiple spots in the bubble hierarchy. Not to mention Michigan would have to collapse at this point to not make it. And if that happened, we wouldn't have a single win against a tournament team.

[royalfan]

Cincinnati 8/Houston 29 - 6pm CBS Sports Network Cincinnati -3 Need Cincy
Purdue 12/Wisconsin 150- 6pm ESPN Purdue - 10 We need Wisconsin as we played them twice and we don't want Purdue on 1 line in conference tourney
Temple 40/Wichita State  19-  6pm ESPN2  Wichita St - 12  Need Wichita St. 
Marist 321/Fairfield 205 - 6pm ESPN3  Fairfield - 10  Need Marist man I hate these guys
New Hampshire 306/Vermont  43- 6pm ESPN 3 No line Need New Hampshire
Lipscomb 121/Stetson 327 - 6pm ESPN 3 No line Need Stetson
Eastern Illinois 276/Southeast Missouri State 230 -  6:30 http://ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch/?Live=6290&type=Live     SE Missouri -4  Need E. Illinois 
Ohio State 16/Penn State 85 - 7pm BTN Penn St - 1 1/2 We want Penn St for raw data purposes.  Small consolation is this would really help Ohio St stay on 1 line
Southern Utah 245/North Dakota 228- 7pm Pluto TV Channel 240 online   N. Dakota -4  Need N. Dakota
Middle Tennessee 26/Southern Miss 209 - 7pm https://www.facebook.com/watchstadium/videos/821538378019216/  Middle Tenn  -7  Need S. Miss

UT San Antonio 199/Old Dominion 82 - 7pm beIN sports  Old Dominion - 12 1/2 Need UTSA
Texas State 233/Louisiana 48- 7:15  https://www.ragincajuns.com/watch/?Live=873&type=Live  Louisiana - 13 1/2  Need Texas St. 
Arizona  17/Arizona State 25 - 8pm ESPN Arizona -1 Need Arizona
Utah  61/Washington  44- 8pm Pac 12 Network Utah - 1 1/2  Need Utah 
Oregon 81/USC 47 - 8pm ESPN 2 USC - 4 1/2  Need Oregon
New Mexico State 46/Utah Valley  104 -  8pm  http://wacsports.com/watch/?Live=1764  no line  Need Utah Valley
Western Kentucky 58/North Texas  183-  8pm https://watchstadium.com/live/wku-at-north-texas/   W. Kentucky -6 Need N. Texas this is big one here
UC Santa Barbara 80/Long Beach State 194 -  9pm  http://bigwest.sidearmstreaming.com/watch/?Live=281  Pick Need Long Beach St. 
Colorado 62/Washington State 185 -  10pm Pac 12 Network  Colorado - 3 1/2  Need Washington St. 
Oregon State 160/UCLA  52 - 10pm  FS1  UCLA -7  Need Oregon St.  

 

other  

st mary's at san Francisco  10pm  espnu  Need San Fran just in case St. Mary's slumps bad

 

[jdostal]

I checked RPI Forecast for Michigan earlier today. According to their projections, if Michigan goes 3-0 or 2-1 to close the season, they will be top 30 RPI. If they go 2-1 it will be REALLY close. Worth mentioning that they will have an opportunity to improve their RPI in the B1G tournament before even playing us, so if they can get top 30 in the regular season, I like their chances of staying there even after we ravage them a second time.

 

Anyway, that's just some inaccurate forecasting food for thought. Might be worth having a bubble watch for Top 30 RPI and decide who we need to move down in RPI for Michigan to move up 

[royalfan]

39 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Maybe not 3 percent. But my point is that we should be rooting for the teams I listed. I think the one spot that Michigan would occupy is far less important than us having an impressive win. Michigan finishing in Q1 would jump us up multiple spots in the bubble hierarchy. Not to mention Michigan would have to collapse at this point to not make it. And if that happened, we wouldn't have a single win against a tournament team.

Certainly not 3 percent.  You are right on Michigan until you aren't, then it is devastating blow.  And you think you know that quadrants are a big deal.  I am not so sure at all.  Will be a lot of negative discussion in the coming days about how stupid and flawed they are.  The are based off of RPI, lol.   I dont have much confidence that Michigan will get to top 30 either.  

Edited February 15, 2018 by royalfan

[hhcmatt]

8 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Middle Tennessee 26/Southern Miss 209 - 7pm https://www.facebook.com/watchstadium/videos/821538378019216/  Middle Tenn  -7  Need S. Miss

 

[Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty]

7 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Certainly not 3 percent.  You are right on Michigan until you aren't, then it is devastating blow.  And you think you know that quadrants are a big deal.  I am not so sure at all.  Will be a lot of negative discussion in the coming days about how stupid and flawed they are.  The are based off of RPI, lol.   I dont have much confidence that Michigan will get to top 30 either.  

 

Well considering the committee created them, yes I do think they matter. But again, even if they don't matter, big wins DO matter... there's no doubt about that. That's all I'm really arguing here. Quadrants don't have to be relevant for what I'm saying to be true.

[royalfan]

Big wins matter and moving up the 6 metrics also matter, which there is also no doubt about.  

[ladyhusker]

Am I nuts to think that Michigan is pretty much in anyway, and the one to possibly worry about is Penn State leapfrogging us for a spot in the tournament? (or, God forbid, leapfrogging Michigan for the 5-seed in New York and us having to play them back-to-back games?) If they're currently 86 (seems low...?), there's no chance they'll move up to a Quadrant 1 level in the next week, but there's still an outside chance Michigan could (their games are @ Penn State and Maryland, and home vs Ohio State). So I'm kind of in the camp that'd like to see Penn State win enough to make it a Q2 win -- right now our home game with them is considered Q3, which is nuts -- but not enough to knock off Michigan. I don't know how feasible that is and what the win combo that requires would be, though.

[leonidas]

18 minutes ago, ladyhusker said:

Am I nuts to think that Michigan is pretty much in anyway, and the one to possibly worry about is Penn State leapfrogging us for a spot in the tournament? (or, God forbid, leapfrogging Michigan for the 5-seed in New York and us having to play them back-to-back games?) If they're currently 86 (seems low...?), there's no chance they'll move up to a Quadrant 1 level in the next week, but there's still an outside chance Michigan could (their games are @ Penn State and Maryland, and home vs Ohio State). So I'm kind of in the camp that'd like to see Penn State win enough to make it a Q2 win -- right now our home game with them is considered Q3, which is nuts -- but not enough to knock off Michigan. I don't know how feasible that is and what the win combo that requires would be, though.

 

I'm in the same boat as you.  I actually hope Penn State loses the next 3 so when they come to the Vault, they're a downtrodden team with little left to play for.  I'd much rather play that Penn State than one who has racked up a couple Q1 wins and needs to beat us to grab a spot in the Tourney.

[cipsucks]

29 minutes ago, leonidas said:

 

I'm in the same boat as you.  I actually hope Penn State loses the next 3 so when they come to the Vault, they're a downtrodden team with little left to play for.  I'd much rather play that Penn State than one who has racked up a couple Q1 wins and needs to beat us to grab a spot in the Tourney.

 

I'd much rather have a team that knows they can beat anyone, anywhere.