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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

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2 hours ago, throwback said:

I mean, we get it. We're probably not in. The majority of experts on our own network spent 3 days in NYC crushing us, after all, and if they don't have our backs, I don't know why Lunardi would.

 

But he's going over the top for a reason.

He sounds defensive. Me thinks he’s nervous. Thou doth protest too much Joe!

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26 minutes ago, B1G Red said:

He sounds defensive. Me thinks he’s nervous. Thou doth protest too much Joe!

 

This is kind of my thinking.  He sounds like he wants us out so bad because he talked so much earlier.  Now that the bubble is shrinking, and we are closer than he wants to lead on, he doesn't want to take heat after the fact.

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17 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

This is kind of my thinking.  He sounds like he wants us out so bad because he talked so much earlier.  Now that the bubble is shrinking, and we are closer than he wants to lead on, he doesn't want to take heat after the fact.

 

To me though, it would be better to say something to the fact that "Now that bubble teams are sucking, Nebraska is closer than they were.  They got a shot."

 

I would rather eat a piece of a turd, than be forced to eat the whole crap later.

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5 hours ago, jason2486 said:

https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/nebraska-basketball-ncaa-tournament-joe-lunardi-big-ten-name-only

 

 

What a douche...I hope so badly we make it, then our fans troll his ass to no end for eternity.

This is absolutely pathetic garbage. I can understand not being in the field, but for his argument to be “if this were another team from a different conference, they wouldn’t even be in consideration”...... HEY ASS HAT, you’re right. A 22-10 team that plays in the SWAC would never be considered for an at-large bid. But we play in the BIG TEN, so no, we’re not just another team from a different conference. We won 13 games in the Big Ten, not the damn MEAC. The ignorance of this guy is beyond pathetic, and I get that he’s probably just doing it for clicks. But he crossed the line there, because there is absolutely zero point in making an invalidated argument against a good basketball team unless there is some agenda behind it. Screw ESPN and screw this grade A d-bag

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So always helps me to put pen to paper - maybe this will help others too.

 

I think 27 teams are locks for the 36 at larges. Maybe it's more - teams like ASU & OU are considered locks by nearly all bracketologists, but I can't lock them in the way they finished the season.

 

To me, these 27 are shoe-ins (of course, if one of them gets an auto bid, one of the teams I've assumed has an auto bid would swap places with them).

 

Assumed Auto Bid Champions

·         Virginia

·         Villanova

·         Kansas

·         Cincinnati

·         Auburn

·         Michigan

·         Arizona

 

At large locks

1.       Arkansas

2.       Butler

3.       Clemson

4.       Creighton

5.       Duke

6.       Florida

7.       Florida St

8.       Houston

9.       Kansas St

10.   Kentucky

11.   Miami

12.   Mich St

13.   Missouri

14.   N Carolina

15.   NC State

16.   Ohio St

17.   Providence

18.   Purdue

19.   Seton Hall

20.   TCU

21.   Tennessee

22.   Tex A&M

23.   Texas Tech

24.   Va Tech

25.   W Virginia

26.   Wichita

27.   Xavier


As far as potential bid stealers, Nevada and Rhode Island would take an at large spot if they lose in their conference tournaments.

1.       **Nevada (vs San Diego St – semis)

2.       **Rhode Island (vs VCU – quarters)

 

So that leaves 9 at large spots (down to 7 if Nevada or URI lose). I've got 21 teams that have a shot at those at larges. Understand that some of these 21 are long shots - I just put in everyone that still has a heartbeat or a chance of playing their way into an at large. And some of these are probably "in" - like I said earlier, ASU & OU are locks in nearly every bracket out there, but I just can't do it yet. 

 

1.       Alabama (vs Auburn)

2.       Arizona St – 20-11

3.       Baylor – 18-14

4.       Georgia (vs Kentucky)

5.       Louisville – 20-13

6.       Marquette – 19-13

7.       Middle Tenn – 24-7

8.       Mississippi St (vs Tenn)

9.       Nebraska – 22-10

10.   Notre Dame – 20-14

11.   Oklahoma – 18-13

12.   Oklahoma St – 19-14

13.   Oregon (vs USC)

14.   St Bonaventure (vs Richmond)

15.   St Mary’s – 28-5

16.   Syracuse – 20-13

17.   Temple (vs Wichita St)

18.   Texas – 19-14

19.   UCLA (vs Arizona)

20.   USC (vs Oregon)

21.   Utah – 19-11

 

Teams with records by their names are done. Today's opponents are listed in parentheses.

 

Georgia and Miss St probably need to reach the SEC final to be a serious at large threat. Losses today or tomorrow and they come off my list.

 

Temple beating Wichita today would make them an at large threat. Same for Oregon beating USC today.

 

And of course, we need URI and Nevada to win their leagues.

 

If Alabama, UCLA, and/or USC win today, they move to the lock list .... at least my lock list.

 

So that's not a lot of spots left unless games go our way today. If we get some bad results today, we could be down to 4-6 at large spots for these teams. It'd be really helpful if all of these bubble teams lost today (obviously Oregon/USC play each other).

 

----

 

You start looking at those Power 5 bubble teams, and your brain shuts down after a bit. They all look the same. 

 

That may be where NU's best chance lies - our resume doesn't look like the others. I didn't even look at them that long - the committee has to be going crazy spending several hours trying to order rank those teams.

 

Perhaps the committee gets tired of trying to split hairs between OU/OSU/ND/ASU/Texas/Baylor/Syracuse/Marq/etc and just puts in the one that looks different. 

 

-----

 

Even if everything goes perfectly in the other games, I still think it'll be a surprise if our name is announced Sunday - maybe 30-35% shot. But if we can keep it at 7-8 bubble spots up for grabs heading into Sunday, who knows? 

 

Edited by throwback

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what killed us wasn't losing to Michigan, it was getting destroyed by them. 

I think if we'd kept that score within 10 we're likely in. Especially if everything else ended the same way. 

 

I'd love to get a bid, but I don't thing we're in a great position to either expect one or feel screwed over if we don't get one. 

 

That said,  I think the RPIs complete dependency on early conference performance has to get re-evaluated in the offseason, and I think it will. Too many teams are getting to the tourney largely on the backs of their strongest conference mates in the first third of the season, and that strikes me as a poor way to evaluate teams. 

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14 minutes ago, tcp said:

what killed us wasn't losing to Michigan, it was getting destroyed by them. 

I think if we'd kept that score within 10 we're likely in. Especially if everything else ended the same way. 

 

I'd love to get a bid, but I don't thing we're in a great position to either expect one or feel screwed over if we don't get one. 

 

That said,  I think the RPIs complete dependency on early conference performance has to get re-evaluated in the offseason, and I think it will. Too many teams are getting to the tourney largely on the backs of their strongest conference mates in the first third of the season, and that strikes me as a poor way to evaluate teams. 

I almost think you should be at or above .500 in conf to be selected as an at large, I mean if you cant win half your league games then why should you be able to compete for the title?

Edited by The Polish Rifle

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Just now, The Polish Rifle said:

I almost think you should be at or above .500 in conf to be selected as an at large, I mean if you cant win half your league games then why should you be able to compete for the title?

 

But the Big Ten is like the Mountain West, so.......

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18 minutes ago, tcp said:

what killed us wasn't losing to Michigan, it was getting destroyed by them. 

I think if we'd kept that score within 10 we're likely in. Especially if everything else ended the same way. 

I can see this, but that would also require us to do something that Michigan State couldn't do either, and Purdue barely barely achieved but it didn't feel like it at all. In those games, their starters were in until the end, but we pulled ours for the last minute or so, and Michigan also had an undefended shot at the end that ballooned the margin a little more. Michigan also looked like an 8th grade girls team at the free throw line against Purdue -- had they actually made any free throws down the stretch, that score would have resembled ours a lot more too. Had we kept it within 10, the way Michigan was playing, it would have been Herculean and yes, we'd likely be in. But I don't think it hurts us all that bad, considering how everything else played out. It just would have been a nice bonus.

Edited by ladyhusker

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5 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

I almost think you should be at or above .500 in conf to be selected as an at large, I mean if you cant win half your league games then why should you be able to compete for the title?

There’s just too much of a difference between leagues to enforce this and still get to 68 teams, while trying to get the best in 

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45 minutes ago, throwback said:

So always helps me to put pen to paper - maybe this will help others too.

 

I think 27 teams are locks for the 36 at larges. Maybe it's more - teams like ASU & OU are considered locks by nearly all bracketologists, but I can't lock them in the way they finished the season.

 

To me, these 27 are shoe-ins (of course, if one of them gets an auto bid, one of the teams I've assumed has an auto bid would swap places with them).

 

Assumed Auto Bid Champions

·         Virginia

·         Villanova

·         Kansas

·         Cincinnati

·         Auburn

·         Michigan

·         Arizona

 

At large locks

1.       Arkansas

2.       Butler

3.       Clemson

4.       Creighton

5.       Duke

6.       Florida

7.       Florida St

8.       Houston

9.       Kansas St

10.   Kentucky

11.   Miami

12.   Mich St

13.   Missouri

14.   N Carolina

15.   NC State

16.   Ohio St

17.   Providence

18.   Purdue

19.   Seton Hall

20.   TCU

21.   Tennessee

22.   Tex A&M

23.   Texas Tech

24.   Va Tech

25.   W Virginia

26.   Wichita

27.   Xavier


As far as potential bid stealers, Nevada and Rhode Island would take an at large spot if they lose in their conference tournaments.

1.       **Nevada (vs San Diego St – semis)

2.       **Rhode Island (vs VCU – quarters)

 

So that leaves 9 at large spots (down to 7 if Nevada or URI lose). I've got 21 teams that have a shot at those at larges. Understand that some of these 21 are long shots - I just put in everyone that still has a heartbeat or a chance of playing their way into an at large. And some of these are probably "in" - like I said earlier, ASU & OU are locks in nearly every bracket out there, but I just can't do it yet. 

 

1.       Alabama (vs Auburn)

2.       Arizona St – 20-11

3.       Baylor – 18-14

4.       Georgia (vs Kentucky)

5.       Louisville – 20-13

6.       Marquette – 19-13

7.       Middle Tenn – 24-7

8.       Mississippi St (vs Tenn)

9.       Nebraska – 22-10

10.   Notre Dame – 20-14

11.   Oklahoma – 18-13

12.   Oklahoma St – 19-14

13.   Oregon (vs USC)

14.   St Bonaventure (vs Richmond)

15.   St Mary’s – 28-5

16.   Syracuse – 20-13

17.   Temple (vs Wichita St)

18.   Texas – 19-14

19.   UCLA (vs Arizona)

20.   USC (vs Oregon)

21.   Utah – 19-11

 

Teams with records by their names are done. Today's opponents are listed in parentheses.

 

Georgia and Miss St probably need to reach the SEC final to be a serious at large threat. Losses today or tomorrow and they come off my list.

 

Temple beating Wichita today would make them an at large threat. Same for Oregon beating USC today.

 

And of course, we need URI and Nevada to win their leagues.

 

If Alabama, UCLA, and/or USC win today, they move to the lock list .... at least my lock list.

 

So that's not a lot of spots left unless games go our way today. If we get some bad results today, we could be down to 4-6 at large spots for these teams. It'd be really helpful if all of these bubble teams lost today (obviously Oregon/USC play each other).

 

----

 

You start looking at those Power 5 bubble teams, and your brain shuts down after a bit. They all look the same. 

 

That may be where NU's best chance lies - our resume doesn't look like the others. I didn't even look at them that long - the committee has to be going crazy spending several hours trying to order rank those teams.

 

Perhaps the committee gets tired of trying to split hairs between OU/OSU/ND/ASU/Texas/Baylor/Syracuse/Marq/etc and just puts in the one that looks different. 

 

-----

 

Even if everything goes perfectly in the other games, I still think it'll be a surprise if our name is announced Sunday - maybe 30-35% shot. But if we can keep it at 7-8 bubble spots up for grabs heading into Sunday, who knows? 

 

Thanks this helps a lot!!  Its going to be tough..  

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53 minutes ago, throwback said:

 

 

Even if everything goes perfectly in the other games, I still think it'll be a surprise if our name is announced Sunday - maybe 30-35% shot. But if we can keep it at 7-8 bubble spots up for grabs heading into Sunday, who knows? 

 

 

That's where I'm at..... 30-35% odds. It's still possible. We'll only have to wait & see a couple more days.

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