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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board


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3 minutes ago, big red22 said:

Same with Teamrankings... For the record I am not guaranteeing we are in by any stretch, but our chances are much better than slim to none.  I'd put us at 50%+

 

 

 

I hope you are right.  I do think if the committee is truly trying to select the best teams we will be in.  I looked at team rankings bracket matrix a little closer and what was interesting is that they are generally pretty good at guessing the field but take a hit in regards to seeding.  Last year they had 67 out of the 68 teams correct on the final bracket.  Generally they fall between getting 64-66 teams correct it appears. 

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Just now, hskr4life said:

One thing that I thought might be a little indicator would have been an announcement of an open view at PBA.  Haven't heard of anything.

 

Answered my own question.  In the BR article on Huskers.com, it says that they will have a private gathering at Miles home with players and coaches.  

 

Also saw that teams will be announced in Alphabetical order.  So.... that will be interesting.

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10 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Answered my own question.  In the BR article on Huskers.com, it says that they will have a private gathering at Miles home with players and coaches.  

 

Also saw that teams will be announced in Alphabetical order.  So.... that will be interesting.

So a 68-team alphabetical roll call being read in some sort of monotone? Sounds like scintillating TV. 

 

... Michigan, Michigan State, Montana, Murray State [ pause for effect ] NEBRASKA [ pause for cheering ] Nevada ...

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3 minutes ago, throwback said:

So a 68-team alphabetical roll call being read in some sort of monotone? Sounds like scintillating TV. 

 

... Michigan, Michigan State, Montana, Murray State [ pause for effect ] NEBRASKA [ pause for cheering ] Nevada ...

 

My guess is they're more likely to reveal a list of maybe 10 or so teams, talk briefly about which of them were bubble teams, then move on to the next 10.

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Just now, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

My guess is they're more likely to reveal a list of maybe 10 or so teams, talk briefly about which of them were bubble teams, then move on to the next 10.

 

http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=597347&SPID=76795&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211704481&DB_OEM_ID=100

 

"The biggest change is that all 68 teams will be announced, in alphabetical order, to begin the show. That will eat about 15 minutes. Then, the brackets and matchups will be revealed, followed by the analysis, interviews, discussion, etc."

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42 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

Answered my own question.  In the BR article on Huskers.com, it says that they will have a private gathering at Miles home with players and coaches.  

 

Also saw that teams will be announced in Alphabetical order.  So.... that will be interesting.

 

To be honest, there's no way they'd be high enough in the pecking order to know they were a lock right now. There's too many moving parts.  A lot of auto bids up for grabs.  Bubble teams with chances to move up or down. 

 

All we can really do is hope the committee looks at more than just metrics and digs into them a little deeper.  I have to think that's what Moos and company have been trying to emphasize with whatever contacts they have in the room.

Edited by tjp21
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Been looking through a lot of data, and this is interesting.

 

In the last 3 years: 

 

2017 Average BPI of at-large teams: 28.2

2017 Average SOR of at-large teams: 26.5

2017 Average RPI of at-large teams: 28.6

 

2016 Average BPI of at-large teams: 30

2016 Average SOR of at-large teams: 29.2

2016 Average RPI of at-large teams: 30

 

2015 Average BPI of at-large teams: 32

2015 Average SOR of at-large teams: 28.7

2015 Average RPI of at-large teams: 30.4

 

Dumbed down version: The SOR has been a MUCH more reliable indicator than BPI and RPI for determining the at-large selections. 

 

2017 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 57

2017 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 51

2017 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 61

 

2016 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 80

2016 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 62

2016 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 68

 

2015 Highest BPI At-Large Team: 116

2015 Highest SOR At-Large Team: 60

2015 Highest RPI At-Large Team: 58

 

Dumbed down version: BPI is a horrible predictor of at-large selections. SOR is the best indicator as an SOR worse than 62 has not been included in the last 3 years (bubble teams at 62 or worse currently: Arizona State, Utah, Alabama, LSU, Washington)

 

2017 Best BPI Not In: 32

2017 Best SOR Not In: 40

2017 Best RPI Not In: 33

 

2016 Best BPI Not In: 34

2016 Best SOR Not In: 38

2016 Best RPI Not In: 30

 

2015 Best BPI Not In: 36

2015 Best SOR Not In: 35

2015 Best RPI Not In: 28

 

Dumbed down version: Teams with good BPIs (32, 34) have been left out, as have teams with good RPIs (28, 30). The best final SOR to not be in the tournament was 35, and the other years were 38 and 40. (Bubble teams currently 31-35: NC State, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Nebraska...funnily enough most of these are considered locks). 

 

My point is SOR is the most reliable metric of these 3 and it IS on the official NCAA RPI Team Sheets this year, so the committee will see it. Why this metric is not more talked about? I have no idea. Why this metric is not the basis for the quadrant system instead of the ridiculously outdated and manipulated RPI? I have no idea. Feel free to share this with your favorite committee members. 

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42 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=597347&SPID=76795&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211704481&DB_OEM_ID=100

 

"The biggest change is that all 68 teams will be announced, in alphabetical order, to begin the show. That will eat about 15 minutes. Then, the brackets and matchups will be revealed, followed by the analysis, interviews, discussion, etc."

 

Yeah, I’m saying what I suggested is how I imagine the first 15 minutes will work. Release the first 10 in alphabetical order, chat about surprises, bubble teams, etc. Then release the next 10 and so on.

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6 minutes ago, Huskerone said:

I'm getting a gut feeling we're in.  A sneaky, gut feeling.  Probably something to do with Tim Miles confidence.  :D

 

I think we are in as well.  Have been saying the Penn State game in front of Bruce R clinched us the play-in game at least.  What would have given me more confidence would have been a Public watch party.  Instead it is at Miles house.

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This isn't going to come down to any type of analytical number crunching. Nope, this is going to come down to some old fashioned, smoke filled backroom, Mayor Daley, Chicago type shenanigans. And that's where our man Big Rass from Omaha comes in...

Edited by Handy Johnson
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Just now, big red22 said:

Lol... Watching the Gonzaga/BYU game and Lunardi says St. Mary's is because of common sense. 

 

Right?  F***ing idiot

 

He also said something about how one team was in because they finished ahead of another conference team by 4 games in the standings tonight and got roasted by Husker fans on twitter. Haha!

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1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

I think we are in as well.  Have been saying the Penn State game in front of Bruce R clinched us the play-in game at least.  What would have given me more confidence would have been a Public watch party.  Instead it is at Miles house.

With potential for it to turn into a block party outside Miles house:)

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Was looking at other Big 10 teams schedules and wondering what things would look like had:  Wisconsin beat UCLA or Baylor, Minnesota beat Alabama, Northwestern beat Oklahoma, Penn St. beat NC St., Michigan beat LSU, Ohio St. beat Butler, Maryland beat Syracuse or St. Bonaventure and Indiana beat Louisville or Seton Hall? These are 11 games against teams that are on or near the bubble that Nebraska is fighting for a tourney spot. If all those results are reversed NU is clearly in and the Big 10 isn't looking as bad. And would be curious to know what the conference RPI would be if just 5 or 6 of those games had different outcomes? Knowing any little boost would improve our chances it is almost painful to see how things could be much different.

Also doesn't help that other conference teams have losses to Hartford, Temple, DePaul, New Mexico St. Rider, Louisiana Lafayette, S. Dakota St., Indiana St. IPFW and Stony Brook twice.

Edited by rr52
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1 minute ago, krazzykirk said:

Minnesota did beat Alabama........remember this is where Alabama went to Minnesota and only finished with 3 players on the court.

 

Thanks for correction, must've dumbified myself looking at all the schedules.

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12 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

He also said something about how one team was in because they finished ahead of another conference team by 4 games in the standings tonight and got roasted by Husker fans on twitter. Haha!

It was about Michigan State and Michigan, I believe.

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