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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board


hhctony
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3 hours ago, royalfan said:

Again this crap based on flawed rpi.  If predictive metrics are used to form quadrants as should be the case, then this would look a good bit different I am pretty sure.  

 

You can call the RPI flawed if you wish, but that team who is also being deemed "not worthy" defeated Arizona in Tucson and Kentucky on a neutral court. Nebraska, as of this moment, can't put a single win against either of those two. To think otherwise seems flawed as well, if you ask me. Also, I don't want folks to think I am out here trying to rain on our NCAA parade. I guess I am just trying to be honest and look at things as objectively as I can, much like @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty and @HuskerActuary. I hope you guys don't kick us out. :-)

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9 hours ago, big red22 said:

Here is who I think Nebraska is in over win or lose to Michigan in the tournament.  These are also teams that the "bracketologists" have over us at the moment

 

Syracuse

Baylor

UCLA

Notre Dame

Marquette

St. Bonaventure

Texas

Western Kentucky

Old Dominion

Buffalo

Boise State

Utah

Oregon

Washington

Georgia

LSU

 

With a win over Michigan we get in over...

 

Louisville

Kansas State

Providence

Texas A&M

Alabama

 

We beat MSU and make the Finals we will be a 6-7 seed in the tournament

 

 

 

Baylor, UCLA, Texas and Syracuse all have better resume's than us currently. Even watching LSU and Oregon possibly creep up on us a little bit. LSU has six top-30 wins which is pretty impressive.

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6 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

You can call the RPI flawed if you wish, but that team who is also being deemed "not worthy" defeated Arizona in Tucson and Kentucky on a neutral court. Nebraska, as of this moment, can't put a single win against either of those two. To think otherwise seems flawed as well, if you ask me. Also, I don't want folks to think I am out here trying to rain on our NCAA parade. I guess I am just trying to be honest and look at things as objectively as I can, much like @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty and @HuskerActuary. I hope you guys don't kick us out. :-)

 

Thanks. Like you said, it’s not just RPI. Quality wins is what’s really haunting us. We’ve only beaten one tournament team.

 

I should add that seeing some of the public shout outs for us from coaches like Self, McDermott, and Beilein as well as personalities like Scott Van Pelt make me feel better as well. If objective observers think we’re a quality tournament team, I have more hope that the committee will use that to override our resume.

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1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

The problem with this logic is that the same can be said for all other bubble teams. All bubble teams have gone toe-to-toe with the best teams, and most of them have more wins against those teams than we do.

 

There's a reason the committee incorporates metrics into the decisions, and it's not because they're a bunch of bumbling buffoons like some on here believe. It's because when you have a field of 351 teams to assess, you can't solely rely on watching the teams play. No committee member has the time or ability to watch every game. It'd be nice if they could, but that's not realistic.

 

When it comes down to it, our record against top competition is worse than every other bubble team. Part of that could be explained by the fact that most of our games against those teams were either on the road or early in the season, and we can only hope the committee thinks the same way. But at the same time, they can easily say that our 8-1 hot streak is explained by not having to play that tough competition. I feel better about 22 than I did a few weeks ago, mostly because I have hope that Rasmussen will pitch a strong case for us. But if I'm being honest with myself and I look at our resume and how we fared against the best teams on our schedule, I couldn't fault the committee for leaving us out if we lose on Friday.

 

You really think all the other bubble teams have only had 2 quad 1 chances at home and the 4 other quad 1 chance on the road against top 20 teams? show me all those teams. A lot of those bubble teams have Quad 1 wins against average teams 30-75 on the road, a lot more chances at home, or both. There is a difference whether you choose to see it or not.

 

As Bruce said not all Quad wins are the same you have to look at the individual games. Will it be enough to get us in now? common sense / eye test says it should but who knows maybe we are screwed but to say we are all the same is false.

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I see people keep bringing up that we really didn't beat anyone during our 8-1 streak to end the year...

 

PSU- One of the hottest teams.  Lost to MU and then US, but has beaten OSU twice.

Indiana- Solid win.  Hot team who had won 4 in a row before us.  Took OSU to the wire.

Maryland- Most thought they would beat us to get on right side of bubble.  Good team, has some nice wins.

@Wisconsin- Won where Purdue didn't and where MSU got lucky.  

 

If you look at just paper metrics, you will see we didn't play any "good" teams.  If you actually watch games, you will see we beat a PSU team that OSU couldn't, we won @Wisconsin where Purdue couldn't.  We won all of our "big" games that we had to.  What I get tired of hearing, and it happens all of the time this year (PSU, Maryland), is that it's a big game for both teams.  Then when we win, it's "well they should have won."

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5 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

You really think all the other bubble teams have only had 2 quad 1 chances at home and the 4 other quad 1 chance on the road against top 20 teams? show me all those teams. A lot of those bubble teams have Quad 1 wins against average teams 30-75 on the road, a lot more chances at home, or both. There is a difference whether you choose to see it or not.

 

As Bruce said not all Quad wins are the same you have to look at the individual games. Will it be enough to get us in now? common sense / eye test says it should but who knows maybe we are screwed but to say we are all the same is false.

 

Also, to go along with this, the more opportunities you have in Quads 1 and 2, the more wins you SHOULD have.  If someone has had 11 Quad 1 opportunities and 2 wins, it shouldn't be looked at as "they have more big wins than us."  That's why I think they will look at if we took care of business in Quads 3-4 as well.  We're pretty solid there.

Edited by hskr4life
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27 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

Baylor, UCLA, Texas and Syracuse all have better resume's than us currently. Even watching LSU and Oregon possibly creep up on us a little bit. LSU has six top-30 wins which is pretty impressive.

All because of RPI perception.  There is no way I snub a 13-5 Big 10 team and take a sub .500 team see (Baylor, Texas and Syracuse).  PAC 12 is ranked behind us in KenPom so why would a 19-10/10-7 PAC 12 school get in over a 22-9/13-5 Big 10 team?(UCLA).

Edited by big red22
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2 minutes ago, big red22 said:

All because of RPI perception.  There is no way I snub a 13-5 Big 10 team and take a sub .500 team see (Baylor, Texas and Syracuse).  PAC 12 is ranked behind us in KenPom so whay would a 19-10/10-7 PAC 12 school get in of a 22-9/13-5 Big 10 team?(UCLA).

 

Not to defend UCLA, but just looking at their resume they have very similar losses to us yet have wins against Kentucky, USC, and at Arizona. Compared to just Michigan. Plus the name on the front of the jersey probably isn't hurting them either unfortunately...

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Looking at Lunardi's teams I think we're going to need to cheer hard against Baylor and Texas.  Both have fairly tough schedules down the stretch.  Have to hope they lose out and finish 7-11 in conference.  If that's where they end up they won't make it w/out a big run in their tourney.  Baylor has OU at home and @KSU while Texas is @KU and home vs WVU.  If we can get them to lose out we pass them both.

 

Also think we can pass Syracuse and UCLA in the pecking order if we haven't already. 

 

I'd feel a lot better with a win on Friday.  The thing that has me worried if we lose is that we'll be done playing a full week before most other teams.  I don't think we'll move up much if we just sit idle and our last data point is the loss on the neutral court.

Edited by tjp21
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1 minute ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Not to defend UCLA, but just looking at their resume they have very similar losses to us yet have wins against Kentucky, USC, and at Arizona. Compared to just Michigan. Plus the name on the front of the jersey probably isn't hurting them either unfortunately...

Once again RPI perception.  My Eyes tell me...

 

Penn State  = Kentucky

Maryland = USC

Michigan = Arizona

 

We also have that Minnesota game that will definitely be discussed, and Indiana is as good as or better than Utah and Oregon

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Not calling anyone out here, but what we are doing in this thread right now is exactly what the committee is going to be doing on Selection Sunday.  Debating what they think is right.  We need to hope that there are more @hskr4life, @big red22, and @noahjb24 on the committee than there are @hhctony, and @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty.

 

Either way though, there will be someone who doesn't like the Big Red on Selection Sunday.  Book it.  What I am counting on is...

 

1.  More people will like us than not.

2.  We have the most important person in that room on our side.

3.  We have a good enough national perception from sources that matter... ACTUAL COACHES. (John B from Michigan and Bill Self to name a few.)

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The beautiful thing about all of this is it most likely will play itself out in the next couple of weeks.

 

Syracuse: hast to travel to Boston College and host Clemson. They would need to win both to stay ahead of Nebraska in my mind.

UCLA: has to play at USC which will be a de facto elimination game I think.

Baylor: hosts Oklahoma and plays at Kansas State to close the season. They won't get in with a 7-11 league mark, but might at 8-10.

Texas: at KU and v West Virginia to close the season. See Baylor.

 

I think these seem to be the four teams we are really competing against. Maybe a few others, but that seems what it looks like to me.

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14 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

You really think all the other bubble teams have only had 2 quad 1 chances at home and the 4 other quad 1 chance on the road against top 20 teams? show me all those teams. A lot of those bubble teams have Quad 1 wins against average teams 30-75 on the road, a lot more chances at home, or both. There is a difference whether you choose to see it or not.

 

As Bruce said not all Quad wins are the same you have to look at the individual games. Will it be enough to get us in now? common sense / eye test says it should but who knows maybe we are screwed but to say we are all the same is false.

 

I agree that we've definitely had fewer Q1 opportunities than most bubble teams. And like I said, hopefully the committee will see that. And yes, we haven't had any lower-end Q1 opportunities like some bubble teams have had, but we also haven't lit the world on fire against Q2 teams. Even if we were to count PSU and @ Minnesota as Q2 games, we'd still only be 4-3 in that quadrant.

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1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

Not calling anyone out here, but what we are doing in this thread right now is exactly what the committee is going to be doing on Selection Sunday.  Debating what they think is right.  We need to hope that there are more @hskr4life, @big red22, and @noahjb24 on the committee than there are @hhctony, and @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty.

 

Either way though, there will be someone who doesn't like the Big Red on Selection Sunday.  Book it.  What I am counting on is...

 

1.  More people will like us than not.

2.  We have the most important person in that room on our side.

3.  We have a good enough national perception from sources that matter... ACTUAL COACHES. (John B from Michigan and Bill Self to name a few.)

 

Completely agree. Which is why it's so fun. I'd actually stump for Nebraska, I'm just trying to point out as objectively as I can (by taking off my Husker shades) that other teams that are right there with us have some "better win" cards that they can lay on the table. I love the discussion.

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5 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Not calling anyone out here, but what we are doing in this thread right now is exactly what the committee is going to be doing on Selection Sunday.  Debating what they think is right.  We need to hope that there are more @hskr4life, @big red22, and @noahjb24 on the committee than there are @hhctony, and @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty.

 

Either way though, there will be someone who doesn't like the Big Red on Selection Sunday.  Book it.  What I am counting on is...

 

1.  More people will like us than not.

2.  We have the most important person in that room on our side.

3.  We have a good enough national perception from sources that matter... ACTUAL COACHES. (John B from Michigan and Bill Self to name a few.)

 

I'd put us in if I were on the committee. Don't get me wrong on that. Just saying that I can understand the arguments against us.

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6 minutes ago, hhctony said:

The beautiful thing about all of this is it most likely will play itself out in the next couple of weeks.

 

Syracuse: hast to travel to Boston College and host Clemson. They would need to win both to stay ahead of Nebraska in my mind.

UCLA: has to play at USC which will be a de facto elimination game I think.

Baylor: hosts Oklahoma and plays at Kansas State to close the season. They won't get in with a 7-11 league mark, but might at 8-10.

Texas: at KU and v West Virginia to close the season. See Baylor.

 

I think these seem to be the four teams we are really competing against. Maybe a few others, but that seems what it looks like to me.

 

But if the past two weeks (weekends) are any indication, most of the bubble teams will win those games they need to win. And the bubble teams that lose will not drop much.

 

Still a fighting chance things shift our way these next two weeks though!

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7 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Not calling anyone out here, but what we are doing in this thread right now is exactly what the committee is going to be doing on Selection Sunday.  Debating what they think is right.  We need to hope that there are more @hskr4life, @big red22, and @noahjb24 on the committee than there are @hhctony, and @Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty.

 

Either way though, there will be someone who doesn't like the Big Red on Selection Sunday.  Book it.  What I am counting on is...

 

1.  More people will like us than not.

2.  We have the most important person in that room on our side.

3.  We have a good enough national perception from sources that matter... ACTUAL COACHES. (John B from Michigan and Bill Self to name a few.) Add in Chris Collins and Tom Izzo as of today, both came out and said Nebraska is an NCAA tournament team.

 

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