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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board


hhctony

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3 minutes ago, brfrad said:

Actually,  I haven't checked other teams, but our resume is practically the same.

 

Q1 rec : 1 - 5

Q2 rec : 2 - 3

Q3 rec : 8 - 1

Q4 rec : 11 - 0

 

Top 50 rec : 1 - 5

Top 100 rec : 4 - 8

Top 200 rec : 13 - 9

200 + rec : 9 - 0

 

They gave teams more value for how they performed in the latter part of the season, previous rankings meant something, and a couple other things off the top of my head that are supposedly removed from this year's evaluation process.

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4 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

They gave teams more value for how they performed in the latter part of the season, previous rankings meant something, and a couple other things off the top of my head that are supposedly removed from this year's evaluation process.

I don't think those things can't be brought up.  I'm sure if you feel strongly that Nebraska should be in, you can say they won 11 of their final 14 games, as a reason. Or, the fact they beat Minnesota by double digits when they were ranked.  I'm guessing bringing up those points, wouldn't get you kicked out of the room.

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4 minutes ago, brfrad said:

I don't think those things can't be brought up.  I'm sure if you feel strongly that Nebraska should be in, you can say they won 11 of their final 14 games, as a reason. Or, the fact they beat Minnesota by double digits when they were ranked.  I'm guessing bringing up those points, wouldn't get you kicked out of the room.

Bruce R. has said that consideration will be given for the Minnesota game.

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34 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

194/196 power 5 teams with 13 conf wins have made the tournament since 1985, and 61/61 of B1G teams with 13 wins have made the tournament. The only two teams that didn't were out of the 2012 Pac12 - which had a conf RPI of 10 (B1G currently at 6). Nebraska not making the tournament would be a historic robbing.

Finally, some common sense historical perspective.

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9 minutes ago, nebrasketball10 said:

 

Do you feel another win versus Michigan does the trick?

 

To me it's a must, actually. And, even then, I think we are just on the edge. I am going to try to build an actual seed list tomorrow. Just consider, Lunardi has this team just out ahead of us. Nebraska in bold. 

 

Q1 and Q2: 5-7. Q3 and Q4: 14-2. Top-50: 4-5. Top-100: 8-8. 

 

Q1 and Q2: 3-8. Q3 and Q4: 19-1. Top 50: 1-5. Top-100: 4-8. 

Edited by hhctony
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Here is who I think Nebraska is in over win or lose to Michigan in the tournament.  These are also teams that the "bracketologists" have over us at the moment

 

Syracuse

Baylor

UCLA

Notre Dame

Marquette

St. Bonaventure

Texas

Western Kentucky

Old Dominion

Buffalo

Boise State

Utah

Oregon

Washington

Georgia

LSU

 

With a win over Michigan we get in over...

 

Louisville

Kansas State

Providence

Texas A&M

Alabama

 

We beat MSU and make the Finals we will be a 6-7 seed in the tournament

 

 

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Speaking of the 13+ win teams that didn't make the tournament, here are the teams Oregon beat in 2011-2012:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
H Colorado PAC12 W 90 81 65 21-11 NCAA
H Washington PAC12 W 82 57 70 21-10 NIT
A Arizona PAC12 W 59 57 76 23-11 NIT
H Stanford PAC12 W 78 67 96 21-11 NIT
A Stanford PAC12 W 68 64 96 21-11 NIT
H UCLA PAC12 W 75 68 126 18-14  
A Oregon State PAC12 W 74 73 131 18-14 CBI
H Texas El Paso CUSA W 64 59 145 15-17  
A Nebraska Big Ten W 83 76 151 12-18  
A Washington State PAC12 W 92 75 184 14-16  
H Washington State PAC12 W 78 69 184 14-16  
H Portland State Big Sky W 79 70 185 15-15  
H Stephen F Austin Southland W 55 45 205 16-12  
H Eastern Washington Big Sky W 73 65 209 13-17  
H Fresno State WAC W 74 70 227 11-20  
H North Carolina Central MEAC W 58 45 237 13-15  
H SE Missouri State OVC W 86 61 249 13-16  
A Arizona State PAC12 W 67 58 251 10-21  
H Southern California PAC12 W 65 62 268 6-26  
A Utah PAC12 W 79 68 274 5-25  
H Utah PAC12 W 94 48 274 5-25  
H Prairie View SWAC W 74 66 297 11-18  

 

It should be noted that Colorado was only in the NCAA because they won the conference tournament.

Here's who they lost to:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
A Vanderbilt SEC L 64 78 20 24-10 NCAA
H California PAC12 L 60 77 37 24-9 NCAA
A California PAC12 L 83 86 37 24-9 NCAA
H Virginia ACC L 54 67 45 22-9 NCAA
N Brigham Young WCC L 65 79 49 23-8 NCAA
A Colorado PAC12 L 71 72 65 21-11 NCAA
N Colorado PAC12 L 62 63 65 21-11 NCAA
A Washington PAC12 L 60 76 70 21-10 NIT
H Oregon State PAC12 L 71 76 131 18-14 CBI

 

Here's their non-conference:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
A Vanderbilt SEC L 64 78 20 24-10 NCAA
H Virginia ACC L 54 67 45 22-9 NCAA
N Brigham Young WCC L 65 79 49 23-8 NCAA
H Texas El Paso CUSA W 64 59 145 15-17  
A Nebraska Big Ten W 83 76 151 12-18  
H Portland State Big Sky W 79 70 185 15-15  
H Stephen F Austin Southland W 55 45 205 16-12  
H Eastern Washington Big Sky W 73 65 209 13-17  
H Fresno State WAC W 74 70 227 11-20  
H North Carolina Central MEAC W 58 45 237 13-15  
H SE Missouri State OVC W 86 61 249 13-16  
H Prairie View SWAC W 74 66 297 11-18

 

 

Similarly, here's Washington's wins that year:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
H Oregon PAC12 W 76 60 62 22-9 NIT
A Arizona PAC12 W 69 67 76 23-11 NIT
H Arizona PAC12 W 79 70 76 23-11 NIT
H Stanford PAC12 W 76 63 96 21-11 NIT
H UC-Santa Barbara Big West W 87 80 123 18-10 CIT
H UCLA PAC12 W 71 69 126 18-14  
H Oregon State PAC12 W 95 80 131 18-14 CBI
A Oregon State PAC12 W 75 72 131 18-14 CBI
H Georgia State CAA W 91 74 140 21-11 CIT
H Washington State PAC12 W 75 65 184 14-16  
A Washington State PAC12 W 59 55 184 14-16  
H Florida Atlantic Sun Belt W 77 71 204 10-19  
H Portland WCC W 93 63 233 6-24  
A Arizona State PAC12 W 60 54 251 10-21  
H Arizona State PAC12 W 77 69 251 10-21  
H Southern California PAC12 W 69 41 268 6-26  
A Southern California PAC12 W 80 58 268 6-26  
A Utah PAC12 W 57 53 274 5-25  
H Seattle Ind W 91 83 277 9-15  
H Houston Baptist GWC W 88 65 302 7-20  
H Cal State Northridge Big West W 74 51 323 5-21  

 

And their losses:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
N Duke ACC L 80 86 5 27-6 NCAA
N Marquette Big East L 77 79 8 25-7 NCAA
A Saint Louis A-10 L 64 77 31 24-7 NCAA
H California PAC12 L 66 69 37 24-9 NCAA
H South Dakota State Summit L 73 92 52 25-7 NCAA
A Oregon PAC12 L 57 82 62 22-9 NIT
A Colorado PAC12 L 69 87 65 21-11 NCAA
A Nevada WAC L 73 76 69 24-6 NIT
A UCLA PAC12 L 69 75 126 18-14  
N Oregon State PAC12 L 84 86 131 18-14 CBI

 

And their non-conference:

H/A Opponent Conf W/L PF PA RPI Record Tourney
N Duke ACC L 80 86 5 27-6 NCAA
N Marquette Big East L 77 79 8 25-7 NCAA
A Saint Louis A-10 L 64 77 31 24-7 NCAA
H South Dakota State Summit L 73 92 52 25-7 NCAA
A Nevada WAC L 73 76 69 24-6 NIT
H UC-Santa Barbara Big West W 87 80 123 18-10 CIT
H Georgia State CAA W 91 74 140 21-11 CIT
H Florida Atlantic Sun Belt W 77 71 204 10-19  
H Portland WCC W 93 63 233 6-24  
H Seattle Ind W 91 83 277 9-15  
H Houston Baptist GWC W 88 65 302 7-20  
H Cal State Northridge Big West W 74 51 323 5-21  

 

Draw your own conclusions, but I'd say the one advantage our resume has over those two is the win over Michigan (RPI 23).  Otherwise...I'd feel a lot more secure if these two teams hadn't set a precedent.

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7 hours ago, hhctony said:

 

To me it's a must, actually. And, even then, I think we are just on the edge. I am going to try to build an actual seed list tomorrow. Just consider, Lunardi has this team just out ahead of us. Nebraska in bold. 

 

Q1 and Q2: 5-7. Q3 and Q4: 14-2. Top-50: 4-5. Top-100: 8-8. 

 

Q1 and Q2: 3-8. Q3 and Q4: 19-1. Top 50: 1-5. Top-100: 4-8. 

Again this crap based on flawed rpi.  If predictive metrics are used to form quadrants as should be the case, then this would look a good bit different I am pretty sure.  

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8 hours ago, The Polish Rifle said:

194/196 power 5 teams with 13 conf wins have made the tournament since 1985, and 61/61 of B1G teams with 13 wins have made the tournament. The only two teams that didn't were out of the 2012 Pac12 - which had a conf RPI of 10 (B1G currently at 6). Nebraska not making the tournament would be a historic robbing.

This is a terribly misleading stat. Far less than half of those teams played 18 conference games. Rosenthal made a huge oversight when he bragged about this stat so outwardly.

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Before Lunardi comes out with his predictable bracket showing us somewhere in the next four out, this will at least make you more optimistic.  This is the highest probability I have seen on this sight this year for Nebraska.  A 20%+ jump as a result of beating Penn St.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

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3 hours ago, royalfan said:

Again this crap based on flawed rpi.  If predictive metrics are used to form quadrants as should be the case, then this would look a good bit different I am pretty sure.  

 

This and Bruce even said all "good wins" are not the same. If the committee uses common sense we should be in

 

If MSU, Purdue, Ohio St, and Mich are all top 20 teams and top 5-6 seeds at worse which I think everyone would agree. We played 2 of them close, got blown out once and blew one of them out with 3-4 on the road. If you add in Kansas and Creighton it favors us more. Part of the eye test is how you played against other tourney teams. If true how can you look at NU and say we are so much worse than that group to be completely left out? yes we lost more of those but played toe to toe and actually should probably be a 9-10 seed at the worst.

 

I hope the committee uses common sense and not just flawed metrics.

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2 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Before Lunardi comes out with his predictable bracket showing us somewhere in the next four out, this will at least make you more optimistic.  This is the highest probability I have seen on this sight this year for Nebraska.  A 20%+ jump as a result of beating Penn St.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nebraska-cornhuskers/bracketology

 

I was looking at this site last evening after our win...they still has the key number at 23 for us to get in.  Quite the change over night.  Not to be a Debbie downer though....this site is ranked #111 out of 113 brackets on bracketmatrix. 

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12 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

This and Bruce even said all "good wins" are not the same. If the committee uses common sense we should be in

 

If MSU, Purdue, Ohio St, and Mich are all top 20 teams and top 5-6 seeds at worse which I think everyone would agree. We played 2 of them close, got blown out once and blew one of them out with 3-4 on the road. If you add in Kansas and Creighton it favors us more. Part of the eye test is how you played against other tourney teams. If true how can you look at NU and say we are so much worse than that group to be completely left out? yes we lost more of those but played toe to toe and actually should probably be a 9-10 seed at the worst.

 

I hope the committee uses common sense and not just flawed metrics.

 

The problem with this logic is that the same can be said for all other bubble teams. All bubble teams have gone toe-to-toe with the best teams, and most of them have more wins against those teams than we do.

 

There's a reason the committee incorporates metrics into the decisions, and it's not because they're a bunch of bumbling buffoons like some on here believe. It's because when you have a field of 351 teams to assess, you can't solely rely on watching the teams play. No committee member has the time or ability to watch every game. It'd be nice if they could, but that's not realistic.

 

When it comes down to it, our record against top competition is worse than every other bubble team. Part of that could be explained by the fact that most of our games against those teams were either on the road or early in the season, and we can only hope the committee thinks the same way. But at the same time, they can easily say that our 8-1 hot streak is explained by not having to play that tough competition. I feel better about 22 than I did a few weeks ago, mostly because I have hope that Rasmussen will pitch a strong case for us. But if I'm being honest with myself and I look at our resume and how we fared against the best teams on our schedule, I couldn't fault the committee for leaving us out if we lose on Friday.

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5 minutes ago, colhusker said:

Yes unless you ask Joe Lunardi or the Big Ten Network Game Break Analysts.   Based on their thoughts we might as well hang the sneakers up.

 

In theory, it should be...assuming we beat Mich and lose to MSU our RPI would projected to be 48.  With that said, all that can change if there is multiple bid stealers.  We should be feeling pretty good if we beat Mich.  With that said, we will still home some rooting to do the next week in hopes of bubble teams losing and no bid steals happen. 

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