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Last year's top 8 vs. this year's


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14-15 Top 8:              15-16 Top 8?:

 

Parker/Smith              Parker/Watson

Petteway/Webster          Webster

Shields                   White/Fuller

Rivers                    Shields/Morrow

Pitchford/Smith           Hammond

 

 

Take your pick.

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Is Fuller going to crack the top 8 rotation this year? 

Feel free to sub in McVeigh, Jacobson or Evelyn in Fuller's place if you want. 

 

i like this years top eight, if morrow has a 3 pt shot, you could go small with Parker/Watson at Pt. Tai at the 2 with White, Shields, and Morrow in the front court, and you have a lot of spacing. I feel like Tai is gonna have a big year. This year's team has a lot of flexibility, and contributors. 

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I would like this year's top 8 a whole lot better with Petteway in it...

 

With Petteway gone does that open up Webster to drive to the basket more and will he take advantage of it? I don't think he or Benny Parker are all of a sudden going to develop an outside shot.

 

Speaking of Petteway being gone...that's a lot of shot attempts no longer on the floor. White is going to take a huge chuck of those but who after White and Shields?  Doesn't it seem like we need Watson (or some other freshman) to be the immediate 3rd scoring option?

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Based on seeing no games, I can only make a top 5 prediction.  How we sub will probably be based on matchups.  I'm guessing we'll rotate 10 guys this year, but some will sit entire games depending on who we play.  It's a luxury compared to what we've been used to.  That said, I'm guessing within a month or two the top five will be:

 

Watson

White

Shields

Morrow

Hammond

 

Offensively, having 3 scoring options out there in Watson, White, and Shields will change things a lot.  Morrow is a great finisher, and if you look back, I've been a pretty strong Hammond supporter as I think the kid has nice skills on both ends.  We'll have Evelyn, Fuller, McVeigh, and Jacobson on the bench, all of whom have solid three point range.  Benny is Benny, and I'm really hoping we can use him as a sparkplug off the bench again.  He's so effective there.  I am eternally unsure of what to do with Tai unless he gets his shot back (good kid though--has really improved his fitness and defense).  Generally speaking, I think we'll be a better team because our personnel is pretty diverse from 1-4.  

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I would like this year's top 8 a whole lot better with Petteway in it...

With Petteway gone does that open up Webster to drive to the basket more and will he take advantage of it? I don't think he or Benny Parker are all of a sudden going to develop an outside shot.

Speaking of Petteway being gone...that's a lot of shot attempts no longer on the floor. White is going to take a huge chuck of those but who after White and Shields? Doesn't it seem like we need Watson (or some other freshman) to be the immediate 3rd scoring option?

The shots will go up. Somebody will take them. It seems like a fresh start not knowing who will take the shots or how they will be distributed. On paper, it looks as if the shots will be spread around a bit more. On paper, it seems like a potentially more offensively potent team just from the standpoint that teams won't know who's going to take the next one. As the year goes on I think we will hear what if questions like:

What if Petteway could have played alongside White?

What if Petteway could've played alongside Morrow?

What if Petteway could've played alongside White, Shields, and Morrow?

What if Petteway had a Glynn Watson?

Of course, we won't know the answer to these questions. Petteway was a great player. It just feels like his career here would've been even greater had he been in White's position having a true PG who is a potential beast and couple other offensive options to spread things out. It's why I think this years top 8 takes last year's top 8 from a balance standpoint alone. This year's crew, albeit young, has a true PG, a shooter (or 2, maybe 3), and a rebounder/PF we haven't had for awhile. On paper, it seems okay. On paper. But even last year's team was poised to upstage the NCAA tourney team the year prior to that. On paper.

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 On paper, it looks as if the shots will be spread around a bit more. 

 

Will they?

 

Pulling this from KenPom

In two out of 3 years the shots have been dominated by two guys.

In 14-15 it was Shavon and TP

In 12-13 it was Talley and Gallegos

 

2013-14 was shots dominated by TP and then you had Shavon, Gallegos, and WP as your secondary options.

 

I'd have to dig more into shot distribution in general and how Miles' teams have distributed them.

My instincts would lead me to believe that we need 1-2 consistently dominant scoring options along with 2-3 secondary options out of our roster of 10 guys on the floor every single night. 

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IMHO, it'll likely be Shields, White & Watson as the biggest scoring threats with Tai, Morrow & McVeigh (no particular order) next as offensive scoring options.

Agree. Shields obviously, White because he has to be the second option based on DI experience and shooting ability, and Watson because he's going to have the ball in his hands at the end of the shot clock.

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On paper, it looks as if the shots will be spread around a bit more.

Will they?

Pulling this from KenPom

In two out of 3 years the shots have been dominated by two guys.

In 14-15 it was Shavon and TP

In 12-13 it was Talley and Gallegos

2013-14 was shots dominated by TP and then you had Shavon, Gallegos, and WP as your secondary options.

I'd have to dig more into shot distribution in general and how Miles' teams have distributed them.

My instincts would lead me to believe that we need 1-2 consistently dominant scoring options along with 2-3 secondary options out of our roster of 10 guys on the floor every single night.

We will see. When I say more spread out or more balanced I just mean more so than last year. I have no idea what that will actually look like, 2 main threats, 3 secondary options, etc. I just know that defenses won't be able to key on one guy with the ball in his hands and say okay, we only have to worry about him and nobody else is a threat.

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On paper, it looks as if the shots will be spread around a bit more.

Will they?

Pulling this from KenPom

In two out of 3 years the shots have been dominated by two guys.

In 14-15 it was Shavon and TP

In 12-13 it was Talley and Gallegos

2013-14 was shots dominated by TP and then you had Shavon, Gallegos, and WP as your secondary options.

I'd have to dig more into shot distribution in general and how Miles' teams have distributed them.

My instincts would lead me to believe that we need 1-2 consistently dominant scoring options along with 2-3 secondary options out of our roster of 10 guys on the floor every single night.

We will see. When I say more spread out or more balanced I just mean more so than last year. I have no idea what that will actually look like, 2 main threats, 3 secondary options, etc. I just know that defenses won't be able to key on one guy with the ball in his hands and say okay, we only have to worry about him and nobody else is a threat.

 

 

It would be my hope that Watson can establish himself as a true PG that is a threat to score. That alone should theoretically open up everyone else on the floor for business.

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 On paper, it looks as if the shots will be spread around a bit more. 

 

Will they?

 

Pulling this from KenPom

In two out of 3 years the shots have been dominated by two guys.

In 14-15 it was Shavon and TP

In 12-13 it was Talley and Gallegos

 

2013-14 was shots dominated by TP and then you had Shavon, Gallegos, and WP as your secondary options.

 

I'd have to dig more into shot distribution in general and how Miles' teams have distributed them.

My instincts would lead me to believe that we need 1-2 consistently dominant scoring options along with 2-3 secondary options out of our roster of 10 guys on the floor every single night. 

 

 

I've got a feeling that Shields and White will be the ones taking the majority of the shots this season.

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Why eight? It would seem to me that Shavon will be the only one to log comparative minutes to last year and that the extensive time Petteway and Walter played will be divided between more than two players. I would guess that Miles will not settle on a true eight man rotation until the league schedule has progressed much further than last year. Probably a top ten roster comparison would be more appropriate at this time. But it is only blog speculation anyway, and we all know how much that is worth.

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Good point Jimmy!  :)

 

I saw a poster on another board (I know, I know, HHC IS the 'brain-trust' board) think we're likely to see more of a 9-10 man rotation, consistent with Mile's thoughts about starting a different lineup each game (in Spain) and shuffled early and often.  

 

His points:  White & Shield should get plenty of time but the rest might substitute frequently.

 

This for a couple of reasons:  It will keep guys fresher  (freshmen are not used to the grind of a full college season) and it seems there were some 'tired legs' during games last year (we shouldn't have to rely on Benny for 30+ mins a game this year).

 

It should also give the staff an opportunity to do more in-game coaching. Look for Coach Hunter and Coach Beckner to do plenty of teaching during the action. Point out tendencies of opponents and how to take advantage of them.

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Good point Jimmy!  :)

 

I saw a poster on another board (I know, I know, HHC IS the 'brain-trust' board) think we're likely to see more of a 9-10 man rotation, consistent with Mile's thoughts about starting a different lineup each game (in Spain) and shuffled early and often.  

 

His points:  White & Shield should get plenty of time but the rest might substitute frequently.

 

It could happen this year but we've yet to see a Miles rotation that regularly features more than 8 guys though it's not always the same 8 guys.

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Why eight? It would seem to me that Shavon will be the only one to log comparative minutes to last year and that the extensive time Petteway and Walter played will be divided between more than two players. I would guess that Miles will not settle on a true eight man rotation until the league schedule has progressed much further than last year. Probably a top ten roster comparison would be more appropriate at this time. But it is only blog speculation anyway, and we all know how much that is worth.

Eight because I arbitrarily decided to cap it at 8.  Miles might go 9 deep or even 10, but the guys who will have the most impact will be the starters and the first 2 or 3 guys off the bench.

 

Your point about Walt's and Terran's minutes being divided among more than 2 players has some merit, but that doesn't mean a deeper bench.  It might mean more minutes for the #5, 6 and 7 players.

 

One thing I think we've seen with Miles is that if you aren't going to add high quality minutes, you won't play.  Miles doesn't seem to rely on an arbitrary number of guys in the rotation, and if there's a sharp drop-off in ability between the 7th best guy and the 8th best guy, then he's going to go with just 7 guys.  Like in his first season how he played entire 2nd halves with only 5 guys and left everyone else on the bench -- didn't sub at all in the 2nd half.

 

If there is a drop-off after player 7 this year, then I don't expect to see player 8 on down get much floor time.

 

I think it's arguable whether the #8 guy is going to contribute enough to make a difference in our record on the season and I don't think players 9 and 10 will have that kind of impact.  For purposes of what I'm looking at here, I couldn't have limited the list to the top 7, but I don't think comparing the 9th best players on this year's squad vs. last year's squad is going to have much meaning.

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To answer my own question, I'm going to take this year's top 8 over last year's.  By a hair.

 

Starters:

 

Swapping Petteway for White is a net loss overall.  But White will bring things to the table we lacked with Petteway.

 

Swapping last year's version of Pitchford for Hammond is, like, meh.  Pitchford was just sort of there for most of last year and didn't contribute a lot of quality plays.  At least Hammond will go in and rebound.  And he's not going to go hang out on the perimeter and miss a lot of threes.  So, that might be slight advantage for Pitchford but not by a lot.

 

Shields last year for Shields this year:  I'll take my chances rolling the dice that Shields this year is going to be a far better shooter than he was a year ago.  There was something about the chemistry on that team last year that just kind of dragged everyone's performance down and I write last year's Shavon Shields off to that kind of funk.  He should be much better this year.

 

And, finally, Rivers for Webster.  Granted, they don't play the same position but when you're talking about net benefit to the starting lineup, I'm again going to roll the dice and take this year's version of Tai over last year's version of David.  David was a really good player for us at times, but at times he also disappeared.  I am going to bet on Tai stepping up his game.

 

And Benny Parker, I think we pretty much know what we're going to get.  I don't think he'll be any worse than he was a year ago but he probably won't be much better either.  He's really good at certain things and a liability at others.  But he's a solid, reliable guy who will see the floor quite a bit.  And we know what we're getting there, which is probably going to be about the same thing we got last year.

 

Reserves: 

 

I'll take Watson over Tarin Smith, and I'll take Ed Morrow over whatever combination of injured Leslie Smith and brick-hands Moses Abraham you want to compare him to.

 

Finally, Webster last year vs. Fuller or McVeigh or Jacobson this year.  Hmmm.  Maybe it'll be Webster last year vs. Evelyn this year.  I'm going to have to say Webster last year by a little but not in an impact role.

 

How's that?

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If we have shooters (and it seems we do), we should be able to switch things up against packed in zones.

 

Watson

Evelyn 

White/McVeigh

Shields/Jacobson

Hammond/Morrow

 

... could be the 8-deep one night, but that lineup might have trouble against man (reserves).

 

Watson/Parker

White/Webster

Shields

Morrow

Hammond/Jacobson

 

... could be more effective against man.. it just depends on the night.  

 

I think Morrow gets a ton of minutes this year.  Beyond that, I think we'll have to have a "3 and D" player on the court at all times to be effective.  Hopefully someone besides White will be that dude.  

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I watched  some drills and 5 on 5 the team has had over the last 2 weeks when I am able to sneak in as a blog media guy.

 

Please dont get caught up in all the hype of the new freshman that everyone puffs them up like they did Webster 2 years ago as he is using Nebraska as a stepping stone to the NBA.  lets be realistic.

 

Ed Morrow is gifted athletically and will be a very good player as he develops but currently all he can do is dunk the ball offensively.  OK in Bigten basketball how many dunks can you really get during a game, maybe one or two tops.  He has trouble driving to the basket under control handling the basketball on the dribble and he has alot and I mean alot of work to shoot the ball and his form needs work too..  He air ball bad twice from around 15 feet.   The Scouting report I can already see is stay off him and make him shoot.

 

Glynn Watson.   He is so small and thin.  He has alot of work to do in the weight room.  Parker pushes him in any direction he wants and digs in his pockets alot. being physical enough at the point will be the issue with playing time.

 

McVeigh  is another Aussie needing to get used to the physical play of D1 college basketball.  Taller than Webster but very similar in alot of ways that I saw in Tai before.

 

Jacobson   I think is the most ready of the freshman to be able to play at the 5 position as he is not afraid of banging around under the basket.  So far he is out playing Hammonds.

 

The players that stood out the most and looked ready to go are.

1 Parker

2 White

3 Shields

4 Fuller

5 Jacobson

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I watched  some drills and 5 on 5 the team has had over the last 2 weeks when I am able to sneak in as a blog media guy.

 

Please dont get caught up in all the hype of the new freshman that everyone puffs them up like they did Webster 2 years ago as he is using Nebraska as a stepping stone to the NBA.  lets be realistic.

 

Ed Morrow is gifted athletically and will be a good player as he develops but currently all he can do is dunk the ball offensively.  OK in Bigten basketball how many dunks can you really get during a game, maybe one or two tops.  He has trouble driving to the basket under control handling the basketball on the dribble and he has alot and I mean alot of work to shoot the ball and his form needs work too..  He air ball bad twice from around 15 feet.   The Scouting report I can already see is stay off him and make him shoot.

 

Glynn Watson.   He is so small and thin.  He has alot of work to do in the weight room.  Parker pushes him in any direction he wants and digs in his pockets alot. being physical enough at the point will be the issue with playing time.

 

McVeigh  is another Aussie needing to get used to the physical play of D1 college basketball.  Taller than Webster but very similar in alot of ways that I saw in Tai before.

 

Jacobson   I think is the most ready of the freshman to be able to play at the 5 position as he is not afraid of banging around under the basket.  So far he is out playing Hammonds.

 

The players that stood out the most and looked ready to go are.

1 Parker

2 White

3 Shields

4 Fuller

5 Jacobson

Worst news about our hoops team I've read in awhile.

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