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2016-17 Media Preseason Predictions


hhcmatt

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No Huskers among the 15 impact freshmen I think is a mistake.

 

First of all, there aren't enough minutes for 4 MSU freshmen to all have an impact.

 

Second, few recruits in the Big 10 have as big of an opportunity to come in and have a big impact as our big man, Jordy T.

 

And, frankly, the departure of Andrew White sets the table pretty well for Isaiah Roby to come in and make an impact right away his first season.

 

We'll see how things go, but I suspect that by the end of the season, at least one or two NU freshmen will have made names for themselves.

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So . . . it looks like we are poised for another breakout year (a little levity -- but no sarcasm -- intended).

 

Here's what our soon-to-be contributors looked like at the beginning of 2013-2014's highly-successful season:

 

Tai Webster -- a freshman point guard

David Rivers -- a 6'7 198 lb. Junior forward, who would spend lots of time in the paint with bigs

Benny Parker -- a 1- or 2- star point guard sophomore

Terran Petteway -- a yet-unproven sophomore wing, who would reach great heights

Mike Peltz -- a no-star senior guard who would do the dirty work on defense

Ray Gallegos -- a red-shirt senior guard --  a three-point specialist who shot .335 from three

Leslee Smith -- a first-year, 6'8" 255 lb. junior center who would perform well-beyond expectations

Shavon Shields -- a sophomore 2- or 3- star wing who would contribute beyond his years and experience

Walter Pitchford -- a redshirt sophomore, who played pretty well most of that season

Everyone picked this team dead-last in the Big Ten -- and deservedly so.  They finished fourth and in the Dance.

 

This season:

Tai Webster -- a Senior who played well on occasion last year

Anton Gill -- a redshirt junior and former four-star recruit

Glynn Watson -- a sophomore point guard -- four-star -- who played very well last year 

Jack McVeigh -- a sophomore three-point specialist who, when playing heavy minutes, shot well over .400 last year

Michael Jacobson -- a sophomore who performed well beyond expectations last year

Ed Morrow -- a sophomore four-star who grew tremendously last year when healthy

Jeriah Horne -- a Top 150 freshman

Isaiah Roby -- a four-star freshman

Jordy Tshimanga --  a Top 150 freshman big 

Everyone is picking this team in the bottom two or three of the league.

 

The foregoing shows why they play the games.  It will be fun to see how much these guys beat expectations this season. 

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This season:

Tai Webster -- a Senior who played well on occasion last year

Don't undersell how well Tai played last year. Averaged 10+ in conference play last  year and has been one of the better defenders on the team (in the conference?) for a couple of years now. If he can improve like he did last year, he's gonna be a huge piece of the puzzle.

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I like when we are picked to finish last or close to it.  We tend to perform better when we don't have to high of expectation on us.

Well, that would be every year then, except for 2014-15.

 

There are teams ahead of them that they could easily finish ahead of.  Illinois and Minnesota were absolute sh*t shows last year, and continue to have off the court issues, although they both appear to have a significant roster upgrade.  Penn State and Northwestern look like they could get better, but they always seem to end up being Penn State and Northwestern. Iowa doesn't return much except for Jok, they have some young talent but not a great deal of size.  The top 7 listed, though, all appear to have an edge in experience and size that would be hard to overcome.  That's not to say that if everything goes right Nebraska should win some games against those teams.

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So . . . it looks like we are poised for another breakout year (a little levity -- but no sarcasm -- intended).

 

Here's what our soon-to-be contributors looked like at the beginning of 2013-2014's highly-successful season:

 

Tai Webster -- a freshman point guard

David Rivers -- a 6'7 198 lb. Junior forward, who would spend lots of time in the paint with bigs

Benny Parker -- a 1- or 2- star point guard sophomore

Terran Petteway -- a yet-unproven sophomore wing, who would reach great heights

Mike Peltz -- a no-star senior guard who would do the dirty work on defense

Ray Gallegos -- a red-shirt senior guard --  a three-point specialist who shot .335 from three

Leslee Smith -- a first-year, 6'8" 255 lb. junior center who would perform well-beyond expectations

Shavon Shields -- a sophomore 2- or 3- star wing who would contribute beyond his years and experience

Walter Pitchford -- a redshirt sophomore, who played pretty well most of that season

Everyone picked this team dead-last in the Big Ten -- and deservedly so.  They finished fourth and in the Dance.

 

This season:

Tai Webster -- a Senior who played well on occasion last year

Anton Gill -- a redshirt junior and former four-star recruit

Glynn Watson -- a sophomore point guard -- four-star -- who played very well last year 

Jack McVeigh -- a sophomore three-point specialist who, when playing heavy minutes, shot well over .400 last year

Michael Jacobson -- a sophomore who performed well beyond expectations last year

Ed Morrow -- a sophomore four-star who grew tremendously last year when healthy

Jeriah Horne -- a Top 150 freshman

Isaiah Roby -- a four-star freshman

Jordy Tshimanga --  a Top 150 freshman big 

Everyone is picking this team in the bottom two or three of the league.

 

The foregoing shows why they play the games.  It will be fun to see how much these guys beat expectations this season. 

 

1.  I haven't researched but I'd be willing to bet that Ray Gallegos missed more 3-pointers than anyone else in program history.  He shot a very large volume but didn't make a super high percentage.  Still, he spread the floor and defenses were forced to account for him.  Plus, he was a splendid athlete who was a strong defender.

 

2.  I think Benny was a 3-star coming out of HS.

 

3.  It really doesn't matter what we thought about a player going into that season 2 years ago.  What matters is how they performed that year.  For instance, I'd take sophomore Walter Pitchford over junior Walter Pitchford any day.

 

4.  The above lists do suggest some things: 

 

Rivers was as limited offensively as Benny.  He was also of slight build, but he played a ton of minutes because we had no real alternative.

 

Petteway could score almost at will.  He had an ability to score at the first two levels that was as good as any Husker ever.  But there was some yin and yang there.  While he was a valuable scorer, he also took ill-advised shots that may have harmed as much as his other abilities helped.  At least earlier in the season.

 

Pitchford shot the ball well that year but he was otherwise pretty meh.

 

Leslee Smith gave us some pretty solid minutes in a backup role. 

 

Sophomore year for Shavon was brilliant.  Shows how a good freshman can come back and be a really good sophomore.  Which means it's reasonable to hope/expect 4 sophomores on this team to take big strides forward from what we saw last year. 

 

Tai was enigmatic as a true freshman that season.  Probably very frustrated as a player trying to transition to American college ball from NZ high school ball.  It was a rocky transition for him, looking back on it.

 

So, upshot:  That tournament team from a couple years ago had some good pieces but, really, each of those players had flaws, some more apparent than others.  And it didn't have a ton of depth, either.  And it didn't have a solid player to fill every floor position with depth off the bench.

 

We didn't have a true center.  Rivers was a weak spot in the starting lineup but played because Smith's knees relegated him to a back-up role.  Petteway was selfish.  Gallegos was a streaky shooter at best.  Shields was great for being a not great shooter with slightly less than superb athleticism.  Tai was an enigma at point and Benny was a defensive sparkplug off the bench who wasn't a threat to score.

 

And that team made the dance.  How the hell?  But they did.

 

I look at the current roster and, with what I know of Gill, I think we have a roster that can do some damage with or without that guy who used to wear #3.

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I think the pieces that the team from 2 years ago had that made it a team that could win some games were that we had:

 

1.   A go-to scorer (Petteway) who could create his own shot at will, score from all three levels, and was especially good at getting to the paint and finishing.

 

2.  A back-up go-to scorer (Shields) who could also attack the rim and prevented defenses from focusing solely on stopping our #1 guy.

 

3.  A consistently solid spot-up 3-point shooter (Pitchford) who could stretch defenses for #1 and #2.

 

4.  Another perimeter shooter  (Gallegos) who was at least a reasonable threat and had to be guarded closely.

 

5.  We did NOT have a post offensive presence that year, except for Leslee at times. 

 

6.  And we didn't have a point who could score.

 

Do we have those elements this year?

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Wow, doom and gloom city for Husker fans!  

 

No one except for the biggest homer will pick us above 10th place.  It is what it is and it's up to the team to either meet or exceed those expectations.

 

We're going to be young overall, our top 2 scores are gone, a new starter at point guard, not a lot of size in the post. That isn't the formula for impressing preseason forecasters. Time to go to the "games aren't won on paper" argument to prove them wrong!

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Wow, doom and gloom city for Husker fans!  

 

No one except for the biggest homer will pick us above 10th place.  It is what it is and it's up to the team to either meet or exceed those expectations.

 

We're going to be young overall, our top 2 scores are gone, a new starter at point guard, not a lot of size in the post. That isn't the formula for impressing preseason forecasters. Time to go to the "games aren't won on paper" argument to prove them wrong!

 

 

Games are not won on paper. Or, for the record, 'with' paper. Unless it's paper and rock. Then paper wins the game.

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I think the pieces that the team from 2 years ago had that made it a team that could win some games were that we had:

 

1.   A go-to scorer (Petteway) who could create his own shot at will, score from all three levels, and was especially good at getting to the paint and finishing.

 

2.  A back-up go-to scorer (Shields) who could also attack the rim and prevented defenses from focusing solely on stopping our #1 guy.

 

3.  A consistently solid spot-up 3-point shooter (Pitchford) who could stretch defenses for #1 and #2.

 

4.  Another perimeter shooter  (Gallegos) who was at least a reasonable threat and had to be guarded closely.

 

5.  We did NOT have a post offensive presence that year, except for Leslee at times. 

 

6.  And we didn't have a point who could score.

 

Do we have those elements this year?

1.  I have a feeling this will be Anton Gill

2.  Tia, Watson or if we a lucky Roby

3.  McVeigh(Fingers Crossed)

4.  Gill?

5.  Tshimanga

6.  Watson again

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