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wordyginters

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About wordyginters

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    Walkon
  • Birthday 04/08/1966

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    Athens of the Plains
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    Terror Management.

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  1. The Official Media Thread

    I don't gamble for reals, but I enjoy following sports from a gambling perspective, a lot of the people I hear on VSIN have much more sophisticated takes that what you typically hear on sports radio. I've been following Malinsky since the beginning of the football season, and now through hoops. He's an interesting cat, big on analytics and "grading" games to sort out the noise in some stats, attempting to get at the truth. For example, minimizing the weight of garbage time TDs in football. He also reads a lot into the perceived mental state of teams, based off of what he gleans from reading local sources, etc. Not your typical meathead sports shouter. He's certainly not infallible, from my limited observation his analysis based off of canny use of statistics has been superior to his reading the tea leaves from a coaches press conference in the local paper, when it comes to handicapping. It been kind of shocking to see him running with the Huskers all year. And fun to see/hear them highlighted in his write ups. I guess I appreciate any sports coverage that comes from the margins so to speak, and strikes me as a notch above some of the typically BS that is everywhere. A bit of a diamond in the rough thing. And yeah, they cover again. Kind of a fortunate cover, but those count just as much as the bad beats.
  2. The Official Media Thread

    Again, Husker stuff from a professional handicapper's (Dave Malinsky--frequent guest on Sirius Radio's VSIN Network) perspective at SBR.com If the unseemly sports betting leaves a sour taste for you Cotton Mathers types out there, stay for some of the analysis. It is curious to me that some folks, who ostensibly would be in a position to evaluate things with an analytical eye, keep backing up the wagon to play AGAINST Nebraska. I assume the oppo money would be based on much more than just the relatively weak perception of Nebraska's basketball program over the years. In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA… I have gone to the well with Nebraska about as much as any team in a single-season in recent memory, and the Cornhuskers have both been lead topics and an almost constant part of the discussion threads on every one of their recent game days. I was mystified for weeks at why there was money against Tim Miles and his team in just about every Big 10 game, some of the moves substantial, and have just kept riding them out. The current trading is allowing for -1.5 to be put into pocket against Maryland, and that means yet one more time behind #524 Nebraska (7:00 Eastern). The Cornhuskers have simply been better than the Terrapins, and now that we are deep into the conference schedule, using the Big 10 only base count tells a tale: Net PPP 100 Maryland -2.4 Nebraska +5.4 Yet tonight’s line is below where the home court advantage would project, despite the fact that Nebraska is also positioned to play well – this is only the third game in 15 days, and sandwiched between Rutgers and Illinois there is nothing preventing a team building in confidence from having their full focus on Maryland. The Terrapins have managed to gut out a 6-8 in league play despite being short-handed, but I believe that takes a toll down the stretch – Anthony Cowan has played 547 of a possible 565 minutes in Big 10 games, and for Kevin Huerter it has been 499 and Darryl Morsell 472. They have lost their last six Big 10 road trips, and in what is becoming an electric atmosphere in Lincoln they could play well tonight and still lose by a couple of baskets.
  3. Release the memo

    NU Memos: Did Danny Nee's wife really have a dalliance with latin lothario Jose Ramos? Is it true that Barry Collier would often take short naps during halftime?
  4. We have been 8-4 or better since 1998-99

    I was at that one too. Miner was a beast. MSU's Steve Smith, K-State's Michael Beasley, Durant with Texas, Ron Kellogg with KU, Anthony Peeler & Doug Smith with Mizzou. Those are some of the big time opponent games I remember. Men amongst boys kinda stuff.
  5. The Official Media Thread

    This is from a gambling perspective, daily blog from Dave Malinsky, a pro handicapper who is on Brent Musberger's Vegas Sports & Info Network on Sirius XM a couple of times a week: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/point-blank-david-malinsky/3453192-pb-1-29-tis-monday-before-super-bowl.html Love listening to VSIN, these guys cover basketball with much more of an analytical emphasis than you ever see in local media. Item: Why haven’t the markets respected Nebraska Had I not brought Tim Miles’ Cornhuskers here as a lead topic, I might have been able to win a bar bet of my own by predicting a question that would be in the first three asked in the comments thread – “are we supposed to be riding Nebraska again”. The Cornhuskers have become a meal ticket, starting with that win at Northwestern four weeks ago, and what has been remarkable through the stretch is that the value has stayed strong, in part because there has been consistent money against them. So what happened once again, in the trading leading up to Nebraska/Wisconsin tonight? The host Badgers opened -2 at Pinnacle and a shopper can now take +4.5. It leads to what has been an on-going question: just who is it out there that doesn’t like this team, and why has that money been so defiant? I have not been able to put my finger on it. There is a case to be made that two main contributions to the Nebraska success would have been difficult to anticipate: A. How good James Palmer has turned out to be; and B. How dramatically the defense has improved. That could have caught some market segments off-guard, but what is keeping them off of the track, now that enough games have been played to establish some realities? Palmer only averaged 3.5 ppg as a sophomore with Miami in the ACC in 2016, before sitting out as a transfer last season, though learning the Miles playbook along the way. This season it has been 17.2 ppg, along with 4.3 rpg, and he is a legit candidate for Big 10 MVP by elevating to 19.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 3.0 apg in league play. Palmer’s impact may go beyond the numbers because he has been a missing link for the program, which has lacked a go-to player. Let’s start with Miles, after Palmer scored 28 points vs. Iowa on Saturday: “I remember one possession late in the game. I’m like, ‘James, James, go get the ball and do something!’ He can make so many plays. The first half he had four assists right away. He’s willing to share the ball. But he also knows when to take over.” And from Iowa’s Fran McCaffery from the other side of that outcome: “He has been a go-to guy in our league. It’s hard to be that guy when you’re marked. And he is marked, and he’s still doing it. Let’s face it, he’s a hard cover. He dribbles it, he shoots it, he drives it, he gives it up. He’s not a selfish guy. He handles it like a guard, he posts like a big and he’s got a 3-point shot. But his length is what makes him so hard to guard.” Now the key handicapping question. Has the presence of Palmer, and the fact that he helped the team get over the hump in terms of winning Big 10 games (7-4), instead of just coming close, allowed the role players to defend with more energy? The elevation of the quality of defense being played by the current cast, with most of the contributors in their third season, has been striking (these are Big 10 only trackings): Total D EFG% 2-Pt 3-Pt 2016 107.5 (9) 53.0 (10) 49.7 (9) 39.3 (13) 2017 108.6 (12) 53.2 (13) 47.7 (7) 42.5 (14) 2018 99.2 (4) 43.8 (2) 27.6 (1) 44.8 (3) If those market segments fell behind the curve with Nebraska because they couldn’t anticipate that there is no fault. I still struggle to fully buy in to those defensive improvements because there is not a lot of size around the basket. But now we are more than midway through the conference schedule, and if the players believe in themselves that can be a formidable energy. Do the Cornhuskers go into pocket again? Yes, at this price point, even though it is a daunting schedule challenge, only one preparation day and facing their fourth game on as many different courts over eight days. The simple truth is that they are better than the Badgers, who are starting two freshmen and potentially at a low-ebb in terms of confidence. Also note that Nebraska’s 63-59 win at Lincoln earlier was a bit more decisive than the final score can show, with this rather meaningful end-game sequence: 2.0Brevin Pritzl made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Brad Davison. 56 - 621.0James Palmer Jr. Turnover. 56 - 621.0Brad Davison made Three Point Jumper. 59 - 621.0Foul on Ethan Happ. 59 - 621.0Evan Taylor missed Free Throw. 59 - 621.0Nebraska Deadball Team Rebound. 59 - 621.0Evan Taylor made Free Throw. 59 - 630.0End of Game 59 - 63 Yes, that all happened in two seconds. Tonight’s schedule setting would not have worked for me at +2, and there would have only been a slight chime at +3. But at +4 the markets have caused the bell to ring one more time.
  6. Times Change I Guess

    Got to be a troll. Not bad, but trying too hard. He/she gets the grumpy old man vibe right, but the needy replies and almost subtle baiting are a tell. Bonus points for the demise of jump stops for sure tho. Does it get anymore fake old school than wanting to pound the ball inside? Didn't Stan Van Gundy bury that old school conventional wisdom in a press conference a few years ago? Pointing out how much more efficient corner threes, and I think, just about shots from every other spot on the court were/are than a contested shot from a big man being defended in the paint? Regardless, rage on troll. I like it.
  7. Attracting Senior Transfers

    Any rumors on Agau? I know he's not a SR, and probably not a big man, but curious if he's happy or not in Louisville.
  8. The Best

    Kent, I remember listening to Husker games after Wed night catechism back in the mid 70s. Brian Banks, Carl McPipe, Andre Smith, etc... Back then, to a grade school kid in the sticks of NE Nebraska, sports on the radio were pure magic. Still feel that way. I was actually happy for you yesterday, because you surely are a long-suffering fan just like most of us. Thanks for the memories Kent, and for embodying Husker basketball to generations of Husker hoop fans.
  9. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    You have any suggestions for authors/writers I should be checking out to learn more about this stuff? Is there an equivalent to Baseball Prospectus or Bill James for hoops? How about core/key stats. I have a vague idea that points per possession (offensive efficiency?) is a good starting point, but that's about all I've got. Dean Oliver is the Bill James of Hoops. "Basketball on Paper" by Oliver is definitely worth the read. Thanks! Second the Oliver reference. PPP is sort of the WAR of hoops, but like that baseball stat, is limited to scoring centric evaluations. Basketball's still struggling--as is baseball-with less quantifiable metrics like defensive play. It's one reason the Benny Parkers of the world can get so much grief in a stat-centric universe. There's no quality UZR-like metric to measure his value other than a steals-per value or opponent shooting percentage. But maybe those are enough. Eyeballs still matter, as even Billy Beane found out when he had to retool his scouting system after 2007. I like the cut of your jib. I'll dig around a little regarding PPP. You've got to admire Beane, who knows what market inefficiency he's exploiting these days? One researcher (can't recall the name) at Baseball Prospectus has been doing some research on "clubhouse leadership". If I recall, his informal studies pegged the A's as having outstanding clubhouse chemistry. It would be hilarious if Beane has figured something out regarding "character", since it is such an anathema to most stat heads(me included). Like you suggest, it probably has something to do with defense, but I'm still amazed that he stays competitive with his roster. Hard to look at that A's 40 man roster last March and suggest they'd win the West. Who is your MLB team? I'm looking forward to learning more about "WAR" type stats in basketball, somewhat comforting to think Miles is aware/uses this type analysis. Quite a difference than being a Royals fan, a team that may be slowly coming around (shockingly, they frequently used defensive shifts last year), but is still waaay behind the stat analysis curve.
  10. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    You have any suggestions for authors/writers I should be checking out to learn more about this stuff? Is there an equivalent to Baseball Prospectus or Bill James for hoops? How about core/key stats. I have a vague idea that points per possession (offensive efficiency?) is a good starting point, but that's about all I've got. Dean Oliver is the Bill James of Hoops. "Basketball on Paper" by Oliver is definitely worth the read. Thanks!
  11. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    Tell me more. If you don't mind. Stats Inc camera system? Is that somewhat analogous to the PitchFX stuff that MLB teams use? A way to meticulously track everything on the court to measure it, etc...? Read this. It just does everything. Measures player positioning on the court, speed, spacing, distance, tracks the ball on passes, arc on shots...it tracks everything and it's uses are pretty much unlimited. http://www.stats.com/sportvu/basketball.asp Thanks!
  12. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    Tell me more. If you don't mind. Stats Inc camera system? Is that somewhat analogous to the PitchFX stuff that MLB teams use? A way to meticulously track everything on the court to measure it, etc...?
  13. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    You have any suggestions for authors/writers I should be checking out to learn more about this stuff? Is there an equivalent to Baseball Prospectus or Bill James for hoops? How about core/key stats. I have a vague idea that points per possession (offensive efficiency?) is a good starting point, but that's about all I've got.
  14. Miles + Statistical Analysis

    True! He's even using Vine. Probably has a hover board in his office too.
  15. I'm a fervent baseball fan, and have slowly started to get my arms around some of the statistical analysis in baseball that goes beyond Batting Ave/HRs/RBIs, etc...there are an abundance of web-sites out there that provide great education on baseball stats, from Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference, to great team blogs like Royals Review. My question, does anyone here get into the same type of analysis regarding college hoops? I've noticed Miles frequently mentions Ken Pom, and was touting David River's rebounding efficiency numbers in an ESPN article a couple of days ago. I also checked out Mich States blog on SB Nation, and they seemed to be a bit more savvy than your average mooks regarding how they digest and analyze college basketball. Anyone have any good websites or books or links to suggest to introduce an old fan to new stat analysis regarding basketball? Anyone get the idea that Miles is more "new" school than old school when it comes to how he prepares and analyzes the game? Thanks in advance.
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