Just completely realized I left the SEC out of my original post.
All -- I think this gives us a pretty accurate picture of who is involved in what we have left over the next few weeks. We need a few things to happen that we should watch over as the tournaments kick up.
1. One-Bid Leagues: Marked here with seeds 48-68 (The Valley to the SWAC). In addition, to create the biggest at-large pool available we need the MWC and Conference USA to be one-bid leagues. Certainly Nevada and Middle Tennessee could both steal bids from Nebraska and others. So, 23 one-bid leagues is our perfect number.
2. Non-Power Six Leagues: Here is what we need to keep an eye on in the West Coast Conference, the Atlantic 10 and the American. The teams we want to win these are tournaments are as follows: Gonzaga or St. Mary's (WCC), Rhode Island or St. Bonaventure (A-10) and Cincinnati, Houston or Wichita State (American). Why? Because most of these teams are most certainly in (you'd likely move St. Mary's and St. Bonaventure in with the bubble if they lost). So if you have three of those teams win, you only take four at-large bids from the non-Power Six schools.
3. That leaves: 32 spots for the Power-Six and the biggest pool imaginable for us. Right now I can see that break down a few ways: ACC (7 teams really good, up to 10 still fighting which leaves 6 pretty good and 9 fighting for spots); Big 12 (lot of things going on here, but I'll say 6 in good shape and two more fighting, leaves 5 and 7); Big East (6 in good shape and one still fighting, leaves 5 and 6); Big Ten (Four stone cold locks, one fighting, two real long shots, so 3 and 3 here left), Pac-12 (1 lock and up to 8 fighting, so if Arizona would win the tournament that could add even another spot to the at-large pool), SEC (3 comfortable and 7 more on the bubble).
4. The math: Locked in at-larges (in my opinion). ACC (6), Big 12 (5/11), Big East (5/16), Big Ten (3/19), Pac-12 (1/20), SEC (3/23). So that leaves 9 teams to still go (and it would be 10 if Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament) and 22 or so teams to get those spots. I knew the odds seemed to good in my original post. I think the think to realized with all the middling in the Pac-12 and the SEC that the teams that lose in the quarterfinals will be sweating big time is my guess.
You don't need to agree with the picture below (I don't, but it is from the Bracket Matrix champ from last year and he is the five-year overall leader as well), but it gives you an idea of what we are competing against. About three ACC schools, two Big 12, one Big East and seven Pac-12 if I did the math right. We have rightly positioned ourselves well ahead of the two B1G long shots in my opinion.