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Donkey

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Donkey last won the day on May 9 2014

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  1. I doubt a P5/Big East school would seriously consider Miles. Nebraska’s facilities and fan base are known and respected commodities. Schools like Minnesota will see that Miles struggled at Nebraska and move on. I do see Miles catching on at a mid major like New Mexico. The smart, more established mid majors will not hire the next up and coming coach. They hire a more established coach who isn’t going to look around and recruit for his system. The sad thing is that Nebraska’s bereft tradition leaves fans accepting Miles 2017-2018 season as a high water mark. Meanwhile, LSU fired Johnny Jones, a good coach who built North Texas into a solid program, despite having a markedly better record than Miles over a shorter period. Sorry for the rant. I guess I am tired of rehashing whether we should continue to allow Miles to built his bridge to no where (or at least what seems to be a plan of unfulfilled expectations).
  2. Husker Athletics Priority

    November 27, 2015. Nebraska v Iowa (football) and Nebraska v Cincinnati (basketball). Games were right after each other.
  3. Contract Extensions

    Robin Washut has reported of at least one recruit who was set to sign with Nebraska but backed off when it was pointed out that Miles contract, at the time, expired in 2020. Washut has not identified the the kid but has stated the recruit signed with a BIG school. Speculation is that the recruit was Eric Hunter who went to Purdue. Opine all you want, but I trust Robin Washut’s reporting. Coaching stability matters to kids. The easiest way to overcome it is by having coaches signed for 5 year periods.
  4. The phrase “dumpster fire” gets thrown around too often similar to how everyone uses the term “perfect storm”. Moos is definitely mishandling the situation, but the result will hardly be a calamity. Sadly enough, worst case scenario will be no different than where we were a year ago, eg losing 10+ conference games and worrying about losing to schools like Incarnate Word. 2017-2018 was an exceptional year for Nebraska but most other schools, 22-10 is an average year. I agree Moos needs to make a clear, unequivocal move. Moos did not create this mess, but he must fix it. He is gambling that the mess will fix itself. Lots of people take that gamble and end up with mediocre results. Moos wants Miles to prove himself to get the extension. A second consecutive winning season shows Miles is building something. A losing season in 2018-2019 means this last season was an aberration, and Miles is gone. Bad strategy. If Miles had been taking his job seriously, Xiaver Johnson would be a nonissue. The kid was Miles #1 recruit and it is being reported that Miles did not have much of a relationship with Xavier. That raises red flags. Miles is the head man. Kids should want to play for him and not just an assist coach. If the kid is not loyal to Miles, will the kid follow Miles coaching? No inside info, but Kenya Hunter leaving is likely more about Kenya than Miles and Moos. This situation is not the first time an assist left to coach with one of the Hurley clan. Dan Hurley is considered an up and comer, and UConn is a good school with a national reputation. In the history of college basketball only 8 of the national championship matchups featured schools not from the Eastern Time zone, and Kenya seems to want to get back to the east coast.
  5. Ominous Tweet Re: Roster Attrition

    Yes, it would dent our APR: https://informedathlete.com/how-gpa-affects-di-student-athlete-transfers/ However, I do not think it is a matter of concern. Unless some of these transfers have GPAs below 2.6, the transfers should have no affect on Nebraska's APR. To my knowledge, most of the transfers went to four year schools or were graduate transfers.
  6. What to do with Miles contract?

    Option #3 is the worst choice of all. If you have not noticed, few kids have been talking Nebraska the last few years. Miles was recruiting Roby, Morrow, and Watson their sophomore years and was in on Jacobson,Allen, and Nana their early junior years. We are not hearing the buzz from sophomores and juniors like in previous years. Evelyn, Smith, Horne, and Jordy were recruited and signed late in the process, and only Jordy has panned out from that group (assuming he stays). Kids are going to see a program in flux and will cross Nebraska off their lists because of the uncertainty. In one year, Nebraska could easily lose Watson, Palmer, Copeland, Roby, and Jordy which will likely comprise of 95% of next year's squad scoring. It will only be worse if Nebraska has to replace its coach as well. To maintain the program, this year is critical to recruiting, and Moos just gave all of the other schools ammunition for negative recruiting. I could care less whether Moos took Option 1 or 2, but Option 3 gives the appearance Moos cannot make a decision.
  7. What to do with Miles contract?

    Sure Miles is good collecting pieces but struggles putting and keeping it all together to build program momentum. Winning with constant turnover is not easy. If Palmer, Copeland, or Jordy were to leave, getting to the dance next season would only be harder. None of the incoming freshmen would adequately replace any of those three. There is no one on the bench who could replace Jordy. I am really not sure who would replace Copeland. Nana and Allen need another season before stepping in for Palmer. Finally, regarding Miles inability to bring in and evaluate players. You have to admit he has made mistakes. He did not anticipate Hawkins, Pitchford, Smith, Morrow, and Jacobson leaving and had to scramble to replace them. He does not seem to have a plan for Jordy, Copeland, and Palmer leaving either.
  8. What to do with Miles contract?

    This argument assumes Miles poorly evaluated the high school kids and made up for his mistakes by bringing in transfers. It still does not make Miles look good. With graduate transfers, I will give you Vucetic for Abraham as a trade up, Okeke for Morrow or Jacobson is a loss. Petteway, Pitchford, and Biggs came in as a result of Doc's poor roster management. So I will agree there is a trade up of something for nothing. However, Biggs leaving led to Smith coming in (a wash at best, but really a 3* for a 2* trade). I will give you Hawkins for White though (3* for a 5*). Morrow, Watson, McVeigh, and Jacobson were already in the mix when Pitchford and Petteway left. You do trade Petteway for Gill (a 3* for a 4* but a loss when comparing actual results). Smith for Evelyn is a wash (2* for 2*). You do lose on White for Taylor (5* for a 2*), but I will give you Copeland for Hammond and Evelyn for Palmer. Based on those numbers, there were 4 trade ups with the rest being washes or losses. It will look worse if Copeland or Palmer leave. @Swan88 You are right about Oregon from 2012-2017. There was turnover. However, Oregon out recruited Nebraska (2x as many 4* and 1 5*) during the same period which led to 4 NBA draft picks.
  9. What to do with Miles contract?

    I checked out the numbers. Per Verbal Commits, transfers have skyrocketed the last six seasons from 577 in 2012 to 883 in 2017. Factor in that 134 college kids declared early for the draft in 2017, the average number of kids leaving early is 3 per year (out of 351 division 1 schools). Approximately 2/3s of the kids transferring were less than 3 stars coming out of high school and left to play at smaller schools. Many of the kids transferring were similar to Sergej Vucetic, Nick Fuller, or Bakari Evelyn was to Nebraska (e.g. kids who likely were not going to play much the next season). I completely understand these kids leaving. Let's look at Miles' retention while at Nebraska. I am not including graduate transfers as they only had one year of eligibility when they arrived on campus. 2012: (4) 50% exhausted their eligibility as both Vucetic and Biggs left early. Parker was encouraged to leave but opted to stay. Both Parker and Shields were Doc's recruits, but I am counting them toward Miles because he had to convince them to stay (although Shields did not take any convincing). If you include Petteway and Pitchford in this list, Miles numbers go down to 33% retention as both left early as well. 2013: (4) 50% exhausted their eligibility as Hawkins and Fuller both left early. Fuller transferring was understandable as he was at the end of the bench. Leslee Smith exhausted his eligibility but was a JUCO transfer. Tai Webster was the only 4 year player in this class. 2014: (2) 0% retention. Both Smith and Hammond left before playing as juniors. White transferred in and failed to exhaust his eligibility at Nebraska as well. 2015: (4) 25% retention. Evelyn, Morrow, and Jacobson all left before playing as juniors. Watson is the only player remaining from this class, and it is assumed he is staying. 2016: (4) 75% retention with Horne leaving after 1 season (included Taylor as a JUCO transfer). Jordy considered transferring, and it is not clear whether he will be with Nebraska next year. If you include Palmer and Copeland in this class, whose status is up in the air, the retention rate could go up. 2017: (3) 100% for the moment. Without including 2017, of the 18 kids (both high school and JUCO) that Miles has brought in 8 are still with the team or exhausted their eligibility. One of those 8, Jordy, has considered transferring. Of the 5 transfers Miles has brought in, 3 have left before exhausting their eligibility and the remaining 2 are on the fence right now whether to stay. Assuming Jordy, Roby, Copeland, Watson, and Palmer stay for next year, Miles has a 43% retention rate over a 5 year period. Assuming Watson plays for Nebraska next season, he will be only the 4th player in 5 years to play 4 seasons at Nebraska. Worse yet, Miles has not used at least 1 scholarship each year (which is worse than losing a kid to transfer). Those turnover numbers are too high. It is hard to build a program when only 1 player stays in a 2 year period. If any of the 2016 or 2017 kids leave, those numbers are only getting worse. Both Doc and Miles seem to have the same problem losing high school kids. Both also relied on transfers (JUCO for Doc) to keep things propped up but only had the kids for a limited time. AND both Doc and Miles had zero NBA picks.
  10. What to do with Miles contract?

    Moos could have extended Miles contract at any time. It has been almost a week and Moos has not come out with a clear statement that Miles will be coaching Nebraska next season. It has also been reported that Miles' short term contract has likely cost Nebraska at least one recruit the staff believed was already in the fold. Kids are not dumb. They see Miles go through a 20 win season and still have no reassurance that the program wants Miles around for the long term. Go to the recruiting page and see that only two 2019 kids are mentioned on the first page. Miles lack of an extension is already hurting the 2019 class. Kids were talking Nebrasketball as sophomores and juniors in 2013-2016. Now, its crickets. Moos knows what he is doing, and I guarantee you he is not sold on Miles. The extension would have been signed weeks ago had Moos decided Miles was they guy. Miles would not be pitching Moos a five year plan sometime this week if Moos was set on Miles. However, Moos will not let Miles go unless a clearly better coach is locked in. The potential hire cannot be seen as a marginal improvement. The closest equivalent to Scott Frost for Nebrasketball would be Tyron Lue and Dana Altman. I note that Lue is reportedly taking a leave of absence from the Cavs which essentially eliminates him. Altman, who knows. Either way, I guarantee you Moos has put out feeler calls just to placate certain people. Thad Matta, whom I am not sold on (and am not sure would be seen as a splash hire as well). Also, Thad Matta is available and would have been hired by now had Moos wanted him. That leaves Altman or someone who coached last weekend. The longer Moos takes to make an announcement, the less I think Miles will be retained.
  11. The Big 10

    There is some value to mixing the con/non-con schedules. I really believe the Big 12/SEC scheduling games January 27/28 really helped them in the committee's eyes. Alabama beat Oklahoma. Baylor lost to Florida. Kentucky beat West Virginia. Ten years ago mid-majors used to have a late January/early February showcase for the same reason. It helped their tournament resume. Duke has been scheduling Big East games (mostly Georgetown and St. Johns) the last 10-15 years during the same period with some great results.
  12. Scheduling is everything

    The standard created this year was supposed to help non-P5/Big East schools who struggled to get quality non-con games. In the end, the mid-majors/small schools got screwed. Had Nevada and Rhode Island won out, only the AAC would have received at large bids. St. Mary's was penalized under this new system because they did not schedule enough strong opponents. The committee just made it harder for mid-majors (with the exception of the AAC and Gonzaga) to schedule quality games. Nebraska also got screwed for scheduling too many mid-major/small school games. The Advocare Invite probably did more damage than people think. Losing to CFU and then beating Marist and LBSU was not helpful at all. Comparatively, Purdue played in the "Bad Boy Battle 4 Atlantis" with games against Tennessee (loss), WKU (loss), and Arizona (win). Purdue had 3 quad 1 opportunities. Right now that 2018 Hall of Fame Classic Nebraska has scheduled with a potential match up against Missouri St does not look appealing. I understand what happened in the Gavitt Games and Big Ten/ACC challenge. Nebraska was not projected to do well and was given the "JV" match up. If I were Delany, I would schedule a Pac-12/Big Ten match up each year as well. I also think the Big 12/SEC February match up was a stroke of scheduling genius. While the Big 10 is limiting its non-con scheduling by scheduling games no one is watching in December, the Big 12/SEC were playing high profile games during a slow sports weekend (right before the Super Bowl and not having to compete with the NFL).
  13. Thanks. Cliff notes: Nebraska should be in based upon his metrics. Penn State is in the same boat as Nebraska. Middle Tennessee and USC should be out. Oklahoma would not be in the conversation had the Committee not listed the Sooners as the #16 team in the initial bracket projections.
  14. Final 20 games record assuming the school wins out (e.g. best case scenario finish): TCU: 11-9 Baylor: 12-8 Oklahoma: 11-9 Kentucky: 12-8 TAMU: 11-9 Airzona St: 13-7 Florida St: 13-7 Miami: 12-8 Seton Hall: 13-7 All of the above are projected to get into the tournament over Nebraska (best case finish 16-4, worst case finish 13-7) and all of the above have a .500 or worse conference record. None of them have an easy slate of schools remaining on their schedules. At best, I could see all of them going 2-2 to close out the season. Doublechecked BracketMatrix, all of the above schools except TCU are projected in 100% of the brackets (74 total brackets) and are projected to be an 8 seed or better. TCU is in 73/74 brackets and projected to be a 9 seed. Just keep winning. We control our own destiny.
  15. Just keep winning and let others make excuses. The way things are playing out, I can see 2-3 schools in the Big 12, ACC, and SEC that are projected to be in now but end up with .500 or worse records over the last 20 games. Nebraska will be 16-4 in its last 20 games, assuming it wins out the rest of the regular season. Even if Oklahoma wins out, it finishes 12-8 in its last 20 games. Kentucky and Arizona St., assuming both win out, will be 14-6 in their last 20. Florida St, best case scenario, will finish 13-7. Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arizona St., and Florida St. are all in the discussion with Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Arizona St down as "should be in". It will be interesting to hear the argument how Nebraska is left out if those four schools (or some of the similarly situated schools) are let in after limping to the finish.
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