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Extremely Disappointed & Concerned


hhcdave

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Hello All,

 

It's been a few months since I last posted... life has gotten REALLY busy... but I've been lurking nonstop and want to say Dimes is doing a great job with the board and as always, I'm enjoying the conversation around here.

 

I wanted to sit down and put my thoughts "on paper" about the end of the 2015 season (I haven't posted since around the Creighton game) and in particular, on the VERY disappointing let down that has been the revolving door the last week (and probably will continue with Petteway departing).

 

First of all, last season... I thought it was just one of those years that.

 

A. The team chemistry was WAY off

 

and

 

B. The team just wasn't near as talented as the February and March run the year before had made us believe it was.

 

I liken it to the 2003 KC Royals... Two amazing stretches, including a 16-3 start and a run in August... but in the end, it was getting hot for awhile, a bit of smoke and mirrors and catching teams at the right time... The team was well under .500 the rest of that year and going into 2004, signed Juan Gonzalez, Benito Santiago, Brian Anderson, Curtis Leskanic, etc. and expected to compete. They thought they were GOOD from 2003, when in reality, it was fools gold. I think that's what happened here. It threw expectations off and then our entire team mentally collapsed, which created friction and issues.

 

Now, do I think we should have been as bad as we were? NO. I'd say we underachieved 3-4 games on the year (Incarnate Word, Creighton and 2-3 other Big 10 games).

 

HOWEVER, I certainly don't think we were better than a fringe NIT team, talent wise. How many other NCAA or NIT teams out of the Big 10 had David Rivers, Tai Webster, Benny Parker, Moses Abraham type players in their rotation? Answer: None.

 

Moving on... Miles GREATLY overachieved in year two... so he's good in my book with a bad year. Not mad or upset at all. It happens. His success created fools gold (and the players, duh).

 

But back to expectations...

 

I believe EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US expected 2015-2016 to be "THE ONE" - where we made the Sweet 16/Elite 8 run...

 

I mean, let's go back BEFORE the start of the 2014-2015 season.

Think of this, back when we had still had reason to believe Webster could be more than a role player at this level (which is all he'll be - nothing wrong with that, he's a good kid and we need those - but we needed him to be THE MAN. He hasn't and won't be).

 

But think of this a year ago.

 

PG - Parker (SR) Webster (JR) Watson (FR)

 

SG - Petteway (SR)

SF - White (SR)

 

PF - Shields (SR)

 

C - Pitchford (SR)

 

Off bench: Graduate transfer big or Hammond (SO), Tarin Smith (SO), Fuller (SO) and a bunch of highly talented young kids coming in.

 

Tell me we didn't believe 2015-2016 was THE YEAR. I mean, THE YEAR.

 

Now, as we sit here, I struggle to believe this team will be more talented than year one.

 

NOW, before I get into that, let's acknowledge our incoming recruiting class is LIGHT YEARS ahead of year one, and legitimately the best class since the early 90's.

 

However, we have yet to ink McVeigh, and if guys continue to flock out of the program as often as I go to the bathroom, whose to say he's a lock?

 

Still, we have three big time incoming kids coming in - two of which should play right away. I expect Watson to be similar to Tarin Smith in ability as a freshman and Morrow to be REALLY good, even right away. Jacobson, could use a redshirt year from what I hear - but won't have that chance. McVeigh, let's just hope he gets here.

 

My point is, right now, we are HOPING and BELIEVING this class is way more talented - but we heard the same thing about Tai Webster (and I hate to keep bringing him up). But the same stuff I hear about Watson, I heard about him.

 

In YEAR FOUR of Miles and THE YEAR, we are looking at this rotation as of right now:

 

PG - Benny Parker (SR)/Glynn Watson (FR)

 

SG - Tai Webster (JR)

 

SF - Andrew White (JR)

 

PF - Shavon Shields (SR)

 

C- Graduate Transfer/Jacob Hammond (SO) who couldn't get off the bench before Kye Kurkowski.

Throw the unknown of (possibly) Fuller and a few freshman, and this team doesn't look much better than Rutgers was this year, who ALSO had two really good players (and a bunch of nobodies). From the outside, that's exactly what our team looks like.

 

Guys, I'm EXTREMELY disappointed and concerned... here's why.

 

1. This will likely be the last year we see a complete sell out of the arena if we struggle (which I expect).

 

2. The newness of the building/practice facility will slowly wear off, as the arms race of college athletics continues.

 

3. If we have a 4-14 year, and we're 4 years in, with all the attrition and STILL no players going into the NBA (Petteway won't right away - no chance), how does Miles recruit? It's getting more difficult.

 

4. MOST IMPORTANTLY. The program hinges on THIS CLASS and NEXT YEARS CLASS. The good news is we have a guy I trust with all my heart (Miles) and a LOT of open scholarships... he has ONE MORE CHANCE to get this right (like this year should have been - THE YEAR).

 

However, if we whiff on one or both classes, and we're sitting in years 5-6 of Miles, and 5 years into the building with a declining fan base... no, itll never be like the 7,500 at The Bob. But even getting down to 10,000 will be a big difference...

 

IF that happens over the next two years... we are in deep trouble... and so is Miles.. and we risk going back to the "same old Nebraska" which we have gotten rid of after the Tournament appearance, new facilities and general national attention Miles has garnered us.

 

My point in this post is to say... I'm very concerned right now. And we need to put 50% of this on Miles. We all love him. We all think he's the guy. We all still believe he CAN and (likely) WILL get it done here.

 

But you'd be a fool to not realize how pivotal these two classes are and if he misses on these kids (like we have so many times), or has more attrition of KEY YOUNG PLAYERS (you CANNOT lose a Smith), we are in deep trouble and things could unravel.

 

the positive mojo is still there for now - shake it off as one bad year.

But that's the only reason we can still sell recruits. facilities. fans. and ONE BAD YEAR with immediate playing time.

 

Turn that into 2 and 3 bad years and well... it's back to "same old Nebraska."

 

P.S. can we stop recruiting guards from NYC? Last three have all bolted out - Tarin Smith, Jamel White, Mike Smith

 

 

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let's wait and see who we get to replace tarin and walter. Something tells me there are grad transfers/juco out there that are just as good if not better than those 2.

 

if we don't land a couple really nice transfers/juco, then i'd be concerned.

 

we still have a really nice core if petteway comes back. petteway,shields, and white would be an amazing trio of wings.

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Here is what I'm a bit more concerned about. Based pretty much entirely off memory, here are the people that Coach Miles has recruited since he got here that have had a chance to leave. I don't count Moses, because he graduated, and I don't count Shavon or Benny, because if I remember correctly, Doc got them committed, and maybe even signed.

 

Terran

Walt  -                            Quit

Leslee

Biggs -                           Kicked off

Vucetic -                        Transferred

Tai

Nathan Hawkins  -         Transferred

Nick Fuller

Tarin Smith                    Transferred

Hammond

Andrew White

 

That is 5 out of the 11 scholarship players he has recruited have left. 42% turnover ratio. I don't know what the national average, but that just seems really high to me. Considering Rosenthal said he Tim isn't talking to players until next week, and there is still speculation about Terran, (although I certainly wouldn't hold that against him) That percentage could still very easily go up.

 

These all have special circumstances, but like I said, it just seems like a high turnover ratio.

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let's wait and see who we get to replace tarin and walter. Something tells me there are grad transfers/juco out there that are just as good if not better than those 2.

 

if we don't land a couple really nice transfers/juco, then i'd be concerned.

 

we still have a really nice core if petteway comes back. petteway,shields, and white would be an amazing trio of wings.

Yeah that is the hope.  We will be very capable if Petteway comes back.  That is far more important than these other decisions. 

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Dave,

 

I was surprised in your lengthy analysis to only see Morrow's name listed once.  Do you not see him as important an addition as I felt many of us do??

 

Also I live in the  Waukee IA area and I really believe Jacobson may bring more to the table and the team than what you might suppose.

 

Trusting that the right moves - and personnel changes will result with the known history of Tim's coaching talent WILL keep us in the right direction for success.

:) 

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Oh the agony . . . (the ecstasy was a prior season)!!!

Oh woe is us! We are undone! We lost a player who didn't have the heart for the game any more (and it showed this past season). Oh no!!

We lost a player who looked pretty good for a freshman. Oh no!!

We might lose a guy to the pros!!! Oh no . . . say it isn't so!

We have three highly rated players coming in next year. Oh no!!! Oh wait . . . that's a good thing, right?

Hmmmmm . . . this is so confusing.

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Not really anything confusing about it. 2015-2016 was supposed to be a banner year for the program. As things are now, it's looking like the 2014-2015 Rutgers team, who DID have a couple of damn good players, too. If you disagree, that's fine and yes, a lot could change between now and October. But I'm going off of what we know right now and where we're at right now, and using the assumption not all 3-4 of the freshman will be studs right off the bat because well.. they won't.

 

I don't think I mentioned any of the incoming players more than once, in response to the Morrow comment.

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Not really anything confusing about it. 2015-2016 was supposed to be a banner year for the program. As things are now, it's looking like the 2014-2015 Rutgers team, who DID have a couple of damn good players, too. If you disagree, that's fine and yes, a lot could change between now and October. But I'm going off of what we know right now and where we're at right now, and using the assumption not all 3-4 of the freshman will be studs right off the bat because well.. they won't.

 

I don't think I mentioned any of the incoming players more than once, in response to the Morrow comment.

i agree, but this topic is a little premature until petteway officially makes his decision.

 

losing pitchford and smith aren't going to make or break our upcoming season, but losing petteway might.

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Dave

 

You mention how pivotal these next two classes are, and we have one of the best classes in recent memory coming in next year, and have two commits already for the following year, one of which is supposedly pretty good and the other of which drastically improved through this year.

 

Where do you see the discouraging thing in that?  Do you fear the players will transfer after they get here?  Are you just discouraged we lost a player to transfer?

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First of all, last season... I thought it was just one of those years that.

 

A. The team chemistry was WAY off

 

and

 

B. The team just wasn't near as talented as the February and March run the year before had made us believe it was.

 

Let me make some lemonade out of this. ;)

 

A. If one of our problems is chemistry, won't having a few guys transfer fix some of those issues? Transferring is common so if we have guys who don't want to be here for whatever reason that should hopefully help for next year.

 

B. Looking back on it, it does really seem like we overachieved last year and underachieved this year. When we made the run in season 2 it was mainly on the back of the big 3: Petteway, Shields and Pitchford performing at a high level. I agree it's starting to look like Shields is the only one coming back. Doesn't it seem like Andrew White is the next TP? We have 4 freshman coming in...isn't it probable that AT LEAST ONE of them can fill the Pitchford 3rd banana role? 

 

We're talking about a team that should have as it's floor the talent level of Year 2 and with average luck should be better. Hopefully we can say the same about the on-court chemistry of the team. Given our fairly friendly conference schedule, the possibility of now being able to land a big man, the possibility of more of our freshman hitting, and the upcoming summer to put it all together and we just might put together another magical run.

 

However, if we whiff on one or both classes, and we're sitting in years 5-6 of Miles, and 5 years into the building with a declining fan base... no, itll never be like the 7,500 at The Bob. But even getting down to 10,000 will be a big difference...

 

IF that happens over the next two years... we are in deep trouble... and so is Miles.. and we risk going back to the "same old Nebraska" which we have gotten rid of after the Tournament appearance, new facilities and general national attention Miles has garnered us.

 

I think that's fair. Miles does have the track record for building and has done it everywhere. The challenges at this level are different...you can't just coach up guys here...you have to attract and keep talent in addition to everything else. We're going to have peaks and valleys of sorts but at the end of the day you can see a clear improvement of how and who we were recruiting in year 1 vs now. Hopefully he can build and maintain that and get a little lucky on the way so we can get the nervous types back to irrationally fearing he will leave instead of irrationally wondering if he should.

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The discouraging is in the present. The fact that '15-'16 is likely to be dismal.

 

The positive are the two classes.

 

HOWEVER, if we don't hit on BOTH classes, we will not have enough talent in the program to be ready to compete at a high level in 2-3 years. Then it becomes near impossible to duplicate these two classes for following seasons and the doldrums are back.

 

Make sense? I know my post was kind of scatter brained.

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I really struggle to say that 2015-2016 is going to automatically be miserable.

 

Our schedule lightens up in the Big 10 next year.   It's not a done deal that TP is gone, and if he isn't...even with Smith and Pitchford leaving, we are a more talented team than this year.   And we still don't know how this class will finish up....with this day and age of the senior transfers....we catch fire with the right guy (i.e. maybe a Johnathan Williams) and things can change real real fast.

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Well, the unthinkable has happened. Dave has become a troll. Just kidding, welcome back to the legendary founder of HHC. And I think your long post is quite understandable for one who endured the long and dismal winters of the Collier/Sadler eras. However, being able to reach back to the Cipriano/Iba/Early Nee times makes one a bit more sanguine about our future. There have been some very exciting times in the NU past and each year still bears the promise of Jack's little beans. At this point in the year, I would prefer to believe that we will find someone to climb the stalk and lead us to triumph over the giants we know are up there. Good to hear from you again, Dave.

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What is hard for a Husker basketball fan is that history tells us we continue to row the boat, but we have never gotten to our destination.  Two years ago hope was restored and this year we found out that the previous glimmer of hope, was perhaps a mirage.  Well, I do not think it was a mirage per se`.  Rather it was a glimpse of what the Huskers can be when the program is built. 

 

We are going to lose players as we continue to improve and build.  I do not believe for one second that Walt or TSmith's decision was one-sided.  I believe that conversations took place all year and those conversations dealt with what each and every player had to do to make this team better.  At the end of the year, I believe those points continued to be made.  I believe that indivdual players then have to make decisions to determine if they choose to buy what they are being told or sell and leave.  I respect the players who stay, but I also respect those who choose to get off the boat.  Both the individual player and the TEAM will be better off.  The TEAM would suffer if an individual player does not accept coaching, does not buy into the team concept that Coach Miles is advocating.  That does not mean the kid leaving is a bad dude.  It simply means that HE believes his talents do not match the coaches philosophy.  Crap happens.

 

From everything I have seen, I believe Morrow, Watson, McVeigh, White, Jacobson, Pinder, Roby et al are all talented players who will take a program to the next level.  I certainly understand those that struggle seeing that future, especially given the meandering nature of our row boat; but again I believe the future is brighter than ever...despite this season and the resultant exedus of some players.

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"From everything I have seen, I believe Morrow, Watson, McVeigh, White, Jacobson, Pinder, Roby et al are all talented players who will take a program to the next level.  I certainly understand those that struggle seeing that future, especially given the meandering nature of our row boat; but again I believe the future is brighter than ever...despite this season and the resultant exedus of some players."

 

Agree 100%.  Several of these kids are major talent upgrades.  If Hammond lives up to his recruitment (and I think he will), we're going to be a complete team next year for the first time in Miles' tenure.  We weren't a complete team this year.  Having an elite shooter in White and a relentless inside presence in Morrow to go along with a true scoring threat at point in Watson will change things a lot.  I'm hoping TP sees this because he's going to have a ton of driving lanes and one on one scenarios with White spotting up.

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