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Projecting Allocation of Minutes for 2014-15 Season


fr8-train

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I took a guess at the expected average minutes played per game in total and at each position for our 2014-15 roster.  Compared to 2013-14, minutes for Shields/Petteway are virtually unchanged, minutes for Pitchford, Webster, Rivers and Parker are each up approximately 3-5 minutes per game (absorbing minutes from Leslie Smith's lack of availability) and the newcomers (T. Smith, Fuller, Abraham and Hammond) basically replace the roughly 20% of court time from players no longer on the roster (largely Gallegos and, to a lesser extent, Biggs and Hawkins). 

 

I'm interested in other's opinions on the topic and what the implications are for player groupings and other factors.  For instance, I would anticipate we will almost always see 2 of the 3 of Shields, Petteway and Pitchford on the floor at any given time, except in the case of foul trouble or when the outcome of a game has already been decided. 

 

Player / Position      1      2      3      4      5      Total

 

Shields                                   32     0                  32

 

Petteway                       24       8                         32

 

Pitchford                                          8     20         28

 

Webster                  10   16                                  26

 

Rivers                                            22                  22

 

Parker                     18                                         18

 

Smith, T.                 12                                         12

 

Fuller                                              10                  10

 

Abraham                                                 12         12

 

Hammond                                                 8           8

 

Smith, L.                                                                0

 

Other Returnees                                                    0

 

Total                        40    40    40    40    40      200

 

 

 

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I'd guess Shields & Petteway will average the highest minutes (32-34). And the team's starting PG might get a slight majority (26-28), most likely Tai (he's my guy!). Other than those 2-3 spots, the others' minutes will likely be more matchup-related. Oh yeah, Pitch will prob get 24-27, as well, at the 4/5. I suspect Rivers & Fuller will play exclusively at the 4, more or less. One more & one less; maybe a Menke appearance here & there. It'll add up to 200. ;)

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Pert' near 100% what I would guess.

 

Smith is the wild card to me.  I'll be interested to see if he flips your estimated minutes with Benny or takes more minutes from Tai.

 

...Or he could take fewer...

 

Or he could sell gasoline out of the back of a van....WILDCARD BISHOPS

Agree that Smith is the wildcard. Smith is, apparently, hampered by an ailment that recently took him out of full-practice-mode for a couple weeks and left him 12 pounds thinner. Prior to that setback, Smith had been getting high praise and projections for significant playing time. Also, Tim Miles likes to brag on Smith and his athleticism. So, assuming good health, a reasonable prediction seems to be that, by midseason, Teran Smith will be getting significant minutes.

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Depends on match ups, opponent, time of year, who is hot, who is not, practice habits, nicks and bruises and everything else that may arise.  Bottom line, Petteway, Pitchford, Shields and Webster are going to gather major minutes.  The other players will see ebbs and flows of minutes...

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First Substitution lineups 

Parker - Petteway - Shields - Rivers - Pitchford

Parker - Webster - Petteway - Shields - Pitchford

Webster - Petteway - Shields - Pitchford - Moses

Parker - Petteway - Shields - Pitchford - Moses

Parker - Petteway - Shields - Rivers - Moses

 

Offensively challenged lineup:

Parker - Webster - Rivers - Abraham - Other

 

Do we see Hammond playing meaningful minutes in a game before he's forced to because of foul trouble to Pitchford and Moses?  Do we see it then?

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People who remembered Tai from last year will be quite surprised by his improved strength and improved shot.  I will be truly surprised if people will consider him offensively challenged any longer.

 

I hope he has a scorer's mentality this year.  I also hope that Benny and Rivers are able to take and knock down open shots. I'll be shocked if Moses takes more than 5 shots in any game.

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People who remembered Tai from last year will be quite surprised by his improved strength and improved shot.  I will be truly surprised if people will consider him offensively challenged any longer.

 

I hope he has a scorer's mentality this year.  I also hope that Benny and Rivers are able to take and knock down open shots. I'll be shocked if Moses takes more than 5 shots in any game.

I thought you were going to say 5 shots this year.

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Shields and Petteway typically only come out due to foul trouble or a blowout.

 

 

A way to simplify some of the lineup configurations

 

65% - Shields + Petteway + Pitchford + 2 other guys

25% - Shields + Petteway + 3 other guys

10% - Other

I get your rationale but your percentages might be off just a bit.  Sixty-five percent of the minutes in a game is 26 minutes.  Last year, Pitchford only averaged 23.2 minutes per game, so he's in there less than 65% of the minutes already.  And, of the 23 minutes he played, he wasn't always in there with both Shields and Petteway (although I'd guess he was in there with one or the other of them -- although not necessarily both -- the vast majority of the time.)

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