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PimpMario

Would you be disappointed if we didn't dance this year?

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I am struggling with appropriate expectations about this coming season.

 

On the one hand I feel like we are somewhat ahead of schedule.  Miles has out performed my expectations each of the last 2 seasons.  Given that we are "ahead of schedule" expecting to dance this season seems a little harsh.  I also know that most good programs don't dance every year.

 

On the other hand, after last season I would have to think that expectations have risen inside and outside of the program.  Especially with what we have coming back.

 

So I ask my fellow fanatics:

 

Would you be disappointed if we didn't dance this year?

 

What are you expectations?

 

Is it fair to expect to dance this year?

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I would be disappointed but not shocked.  The run we had to make to get into the dance last year was pretty incredible and you have to think some luck was involved.

 

I don't know if we have another MSU on the road win in us.  That seems like a once in a decade type win.  Plus the Wisconsin win was awesome but we really really had to earn that one.  I was really impressed how both teams kept fighting.  

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Would you be disappointed if we didn't dance this year?

No. Making the dance is a privilege. There are so many variables that go into making the tournament. If we end the season without even having a chance at making the dance, then I would be disappointed.

 

What are your expectations?

Many sellout games. That's the one thing that the fans can control.

 

Is it fair to expect to dance this year?

No. See first answer.

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Would you be disappointed if we didn't dance this year?

No. Making the dance is a privilege. There are so many variables that go into making the tournament. If we end the season without even having a chance at making the dance, then I would be disappointed.

It is a privilege, but it is also something you can earn. This team *should* expect to earn that privledge this season, IMO. The challenge will be different from last year's but that expectation shouldn't be lowered.

 

 

I would be disappointed but not shocked.  The run we had to make to get into the dance last year was pretty incredible and you have to think some luck was involved.

 

I don't know if we have another MSU on the road win in us.  That seems like a once in a decade type win.  Plus the Wisconsin win was awesome but we really really had to earn that one.  I was really impressed how both teams kept fighting.  

 

I don't think they'll need another MSU stunner if they don't drop silly games like they did early in the year or to Penn St. or Purdue. Those things will offset not knocking off a top ten team on the road. If Miles continues to build this team/program, those wins won't be as scarce, nor will they be monumental in the way that one was. We're looking to build to be that class of a program. If they don that, those games will be ones we expect and will be expected to compete in.

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I would be disappointed but not shocked.  The run we had to make to get into the dance last year was pretty incredible and you have to think some luck was involved.

I respectfully disagree. 

 

I said all along, while we were making that run, that we were either good enough to dance or we weren't.  And I said that I believed we were good enough.  And if we were good enough, we would win the games we needed to win.  And if we didn't win the games we needed to win in order to make the dance, then the conclusion would be that we simply weren't good enough. 

 

But you can go back and search.  I said it then and I say it now.  Luck had nothing to do with it.  When people were posting the published odds from various websites predicting the likelihood that we would reach the dance, I said, basically, nonsense.  When people said we'd have to be lucky, I said nonsense.  We're either good enough or we're not.  And I said I thought we were good enough.  And we were.

 

We will be no less good this coming season.  In fact, we'll have added some pieces that will make us better.

 

We must make the dance again this year.  And we really ought to win a game when we get there.  Anything less and, yes, I will be disappointed.  Disappointed because we are good enough.  Finally.

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I would be disappointed but not shocked.  The run we had to make to get into the dance last year was pretty incredible and you have to think some luck was involved.

I respectfully disagree. 

 

I said all along, while we were making that run, that we were either good enough to dance or we weren't.  And I said that I believed we were good enough.  And if we were good enough, we would win the games we needed to win.  And if we didn't win the games we needed to win in order to make the dance, then the conclusion would be that we simply weren't good enough. 

 

But you can go back and search.  I said it then and I say it now.  Luck had nothing to do with it.  When people were posting the published odds from various websites predicting the likelihood that we would reach the dance, I said, basically, nonsense.  When people said we'd have to be lucky, I said nonsense.  We're either good enough or we're not.  And I said I thought we were good enough.  And we were.

 

We will be no less good this coming season.  In fact, we'll have added some pieces that will make us better.

 

We must make the dance again this year.  And we really ought to win a game when we get there.  Anything less and, yes, I will be disappointed.  Disappointed because we are good enough.  Finally.

 

 

The other thing we are not considering is that our schedule was manageable last year and down the stretch when we went on our run was pretty dang easy (aside from the MSU stunner).

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I do not expect us to improve on our conference finish, but I do expect us to make the dance.

This is how I feel as well. Top 4 would be great, but I think it's very possible to finish 6th and have a higher NCAA Tournament seed than last year, which in my opinion would still be very successful.

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The below chart is one "slightly illegal" site's odds on college teams winning the NCAA tournament.

We are 6th in our top-notch big-time league...which means they think we will make the dance...so do I.

Indirectly, some will surmise that the betting expected order of finish (if the teams were playing equal schedules) would be:

Wisconsin, Michigan St, Michigan, Ohio St, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois...and the bottom 4 (recall we were slotted back here here last year)

 

 

College Basketball Future Odds  
 
Odds to Win 2014-15 NCAA Men's Tournament (4/6/15)
School Odds Kentucky

4/1

Arizona

8/1

Duke

10/1

Kansas

14/1

Florida

14/1

Wisconsin

14/1

North Carolina

22/1

Wichita State

28/1

Villanova

28/1

Louisville

28/1

SMU

28/1

Texas

28/1

Iowa State

35/1

Gonzaga

35/1

Michigan State

40/1

San Diego State

40/1

Michigan

40/1

VCU

45/1

Virginia

45/1

Syracuse

45/1

Ohio State

55/1

UConn

60/1

Oklahoma

65/1

Pittsburgh

70/1

UCLA

70/1

Baylor

80/1

Miami, FL

80/1

Iowa

80/1

Field (Any Other Team)

100/1

Oregon

100/1

Nebraska

100/1

UNLV

110/1

Saint Louis

110/1

Arkansas

110/1

Tennessee

110/1

Seton Hall

110/1

Providence

110/1

Cincinnati

110/1

Minnesota

110/1

Maryland

110/1

Marquette

110/1

Kansas State

110/1

Indiana

110/1

Memphis

110/1

Georgetown

110/1

Florida State

110/1

Illinois

175/1

Harvard

200/1

N.C. State

200/1

St. Johns

200/1

Notre Dame

200/1

Alabama

200/1

Utah

200/1

UTEP

200/1

Stanford

200/1

Oklahoma State

200/1

Georgia

200/1

Dayton

200/1

Colorado

200/1

DePaul

300/1

Penn State

300/1

 

 

So you ask:

Would you be disappointed if we didn't dance this year?

If we finish in the top 6 I darn well expect it...so yes I would be disappointed

 

What are you expectations?

While slightly lower now that Leslee is gone...I still think a higher finish than last year is expected, as the additions are still greater than the subtractions...maybe we do not finish higher in the regular season conference standings but we will do better in the conference and NCAA tournaments.

 

Is it fair to expect to dance this year?

GOD YES!!! We'll be there...and get used to it for many years to come!

 

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I would be disappointed but not shocked.  The run we had to make to get into the dance last year was pretty incredible and you have to think some luck was involved.

I respectfully disagree. 

 

I said all along, while we were making that run, that we were either good enough to dance or we weren't.  And I said that I believed we were good enough.  And if we were good enough, we would win the games we needed to win.  And if we didn't win the games we needed to win in order to make the dance, then the conclusion would be that we simply weren't good enough. 

 

But you can go back and search.  I said it then and I say it now.  Luck had nothing to do with it.  When people were posting the published odds from various websites predicting the likelihood that we would reach the dance, I said, basically, nonsense.  When people said we'd have to be lucky, I said nonsense.  We're either good enough or we're not.  And I said I thought we were good enough.  And we were.

 

We will be no less good this coming season.  In fact, we'll have added some pieces that will make us better.

 

We must make the dance again this year.  And we really ought to win a game when we get there.  Anything less and, yes, I will be disappointed.  Disappointed because we are good enough.  Finally.

 

The other thing we are not considering is that our schedule was manageable last year and down the stretch when we went on our run was pretty dang easy (aside from the MSU stunner).

First off, nothing comes easy in this conference. Northwestern was just coming off a stretch of beating Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota--all on the road, prior to us winning in Evanston. Secondly, we started the conference season 0-4. Is an 0-4 start even fathomable with 5 returning starters from a team who finished 4th? Probably not. Do as you wish, but expectations should be no less than 9-10 conference wins. That will most likely put us in the tournament.

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That site has us at better odds of winning it all than Marquette or Georgetown.  I still have a bit tempered expectations for this season simply because of the conference strength, but maybe we have arrived after all.

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