hhctony Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 What I think I know: 21 one-bid leagues 11 more conference champions 36 at-large spots Mortal locks American -- Cincinnati, Louisville (2/47) Atlantic 10 -- St.Louis (3/47) ACC -- Syracuse, Duke, Virginia (6/47) Big 12 -- Kansas, Iowa State (8/47) Big East -- Villanova, Creighton (10/47) Big Ten -- Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan (13/47) Missouri Valley -- Wichita State (14/47) Mountain West -- San Diego State (15/47) Pac 12 -- Arizona, UCLA (18/47) SEC -- Florida, Kentucky (18/47) So, at this point, we have 39/68 slots locked into the field. The next part is filling out who would take the remaining 29 spaces. Conference USA is a weird deal, for sure. Four teams (Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Southern Miss and La. Tech) all have guady records. However, only Southern Miss, in my opinion has an at-large chance. All the other teams have RPIs in the 80s. We'll assume for this exercise that CUSA is a one bid league. (40/68) Not a lock, but resumes better than Nebraska and most of the bubble American -- UConn, Memphis (42/68) Atlantic 10 -- UMass, VCU (44/68) ACC -- North Carolina, PIttsburgh (46/68) Big 12 -- Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State (49/68) Big Ten -- Ohio State, Iowa (51/68) Mountain West -- New Mexico (52/68) Pac 12 -- Colorado, Arizona State (54/68) West Coast -- Gonzaga, BYU (56/68) In my opinion, this leaves 12 spots you are fighting for with the following teams: SMU, George Washington, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Dayton, Florida State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Xavier, St. Johns, Providence, Georgetown, Minnesota, Oregon, Stanford, California, Missouri, Tennessee. That's 20 teams (if you count us) for 12 spots. I don't think our resume at this point really takes a back seat to any of these teams. But, we have a chance and we must keep winning. This may make the picture a bit more clear. Shuttlesworth, Cookie Belcher and tcp 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt Lincoln Osiris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Minnesota's next two games are against Ohio State (tomorrow) and Iowa (Tuesday). I have to think that the analysts are projecting that they are about to pick up a big win. If they lose both, even though they have a top-5 SOS, I can't see them being above us in any way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBigRed Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Headlining the Bubble Watch with...North Carolina. Man this is an interesting time to be a Husker Hoops fan! http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch Not a very promising article. Indicates 1 more loss will send us to the NIT. Not sure I agree with it, but Eamon certainly knows more about it than I do. I get the sense we are suffering from lack of name-brand reputation: Georgetown [15-11 (6-8), RPI: 62, SOS: 32] The Hoyas' loss at Seton Hall on Thursday night doesn't take them totally out of the picture; their schedule numbers are a huge help. But at 15-10, with a 5-8 record against the top 100, they're barely hanging by a thread. Nebraska [15-10 (7-6), RPI: 49, SOS: 22] The Cornhuskers may share some strange UAB-Michigan State hybrid DNA with the Tar Heels, and they likewise own two losses to teams just outside the RPI top 100 (at Purdue, at Penn State). That's where the similarities stop, because Nebraska lacks the depth of profile quality and is a super-long shot on the bubble that is probably one loss away from the NIT. What am I missing? We are better by every metric, and play in a tougher league. But Georgetown is still "hanging by a thread" and Nebraska is a super-long shot? Georgetown has 3 100+ losses including 231 NORHTEASTERN AT HOME and 122 Seton Hall at home. It is RIDICULOUS that they are mentioned ahead of us in any bracket. And these guys get paid to do this stuff? tcp and REDZONEDAN 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBigRed Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice breakdown, Tony. So those 20 teams you listed, in order of ESPN RPI as of Feb. 21: 32. George Washington 36. Missouri 39. Oregon 40. St. Joseph's 42. Minnesota 44. Baylor 44. Richmond 46. SMU 47. Oklahoma State 48. Stanford 49. Nebraska 50. California 51. Tennessee 52. Xavier 53. St. Johns 57. Dayton 60. Providence 62. Georgetown 64. Florida State 68. West Virginia Right near the middle. I still find it funny that most national analysts act like we have little to no shot. When you go in and check out all these other mediocre teams, their resumes are no better! Maybe some are, but not a ton. Is it just that no one expects that we'll keep winning, because we've never done that in the past? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhctony Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Indeed. I'd even go out on a limb and say that the 12 teams that win the most games of those 20, will make the tournament. Shocking, I know. Oh, and someone tell Creighton that we'd be the third best team in their awesome, new "rise and fire" league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Mexico Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 When you sum all of this up it appears that we are going to have to force our way into the big dance by winning games. Appears that if we lose just one or more regular season games that we will have to win at least 2 in the BIG tourny. I don't agree with this, however; it appears to be the narrative that is developing. I wasn't able to go to the game last night and had to DVR it, and when I watched it later that evening I was surprised by how much time was spent talking about Nebraska's chances at making the tourny. I was also surprised to hear how little weight will be put on how a team plays going down the stretch, ie the final 10 games. As we start into the stretch run I have to wonder if the players will start to feel the pressure. This is where the coaching staff will have to work their magic. I don't believe this team will fold but I am concerned that they won't be able to keep up this level of intensity in every game. If there is a let down I'd prefer it to be a road game. The fan base really needs to be a force for home games to help pick these guys up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuttlesworth Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Keep an eye on KState. Losers of their last five road games, they just struggled at home versus bottom dweller, TCU. Three of their next four games are on the road, with a home game vs Iowa St. sprinkled in. Losing all four isn't completely inconceivable. Their RPI currently sits at 36. Not saying losing all four would push them onto the bubble, but it's entirely possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcp Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 thanks for the work, tony. good to see you again. you're like the HHC groundhog. if you show up with a bracket late in February, it's going to be a good season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhctony Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 tcp - That's the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me. I certainly hope we can keep this going. So proud of this team that even if they make the NIT it should feel like a win. Really came together and got great coaching. Silverbacked1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc1394 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Digger Phelps just said on College Gameday that he thinks Nebraska will steal a bid this year while doing blind resumes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc1394 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 They compared ours and SMU. Digger chose us, and Jay barely took SMU, who is a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Going off hhctony's comments Has anyone taken the time to look at that 20 and see the likely top 12 winning teams in that list based on their remaining schedule? That's a crazy matrix that looks at 20 teams and then most likely their additional 6 or so games in regular season, let alone their tournament... For instance we've seen Nebraska's probability over the next few games - how about the other teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskerActuary Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Seventh team out on the new bracket matrix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichHusker Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Realtimerpi bracket prediction has us an an 11 seed with a first round game vs Cincinnati of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookie Belcher Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Realtimerpi bracket prediction has us an an 11 seed with a first round game vs Cincinnati of course They have Cincy as a 6 seed? That sounds like a pretty bad bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichHusker Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Another bracket that has us as an 11 seed has of going up against Texas. A win would put us up most likely against creighton, who is projected to play uc irvine. That bracket is on http://www.dudesonsports.com/dudes-on-brackets/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timforthewin Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Can someone please explain to me how Oklahoma St is a "lock" in most brackets. They're in something like 71 brackets as opposed to our 7. Compare this..... *Team A Team B RPI: 47 48 SOS: 20 19 W/L vs Top 50: 3-9 3-7 W/L last 10 gms: 2-8 7-3 *NOTE: Team A needs to be in the Tourney because they have 3 likely NBA prospects and Team B only has 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajb5856 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 So once we get in...then comes the challenge of putting us in a spot where we don't face a team we've already faced this year in the first or second round. That's the 'rule' they try to follow, right? I mean, we've played so many tournament-bound teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royalfan Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Can someone please explain to me how Oklahoma St is a "lock" in most brackets. They're in something like 71 brackets as opposed to our 7. Compare this..... *Team A Team B RPI: 47 48 SOS: 20 19 W/L vs Top 50: 3-9 3-7 W/L last 10 gms: 2-8 7-3 *NOTE: Team A needs to be in the Tourney because they have 3 likely NBA prospects and Team B only has 1 Wonder how the committee will look at Smart missing games. Obviously he makes a huge difference, but not sure they should bump them because of why he missed action. Silverbacked1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookie Belcher Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 IMO, the reason Okla State is in so many more brackets is because they started off hot and are now falling while we started off badly and are just coming onto the scene now. Therefore, OSU was always in everyone's bracket projections and it takes longer for them to fall out, while we weren't in anyone's and are just starting to pop up on a few. Some of those sites probably don't update their projections more than once a week so the total #s can lag behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajb5856 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Can someone please explain to me how Oklahoma St is a "lock" in most brackets. They're in something like 71 brackets as opposed to our 7. Compare this..... *Team A Team B RPI: 47 48 SOS: 20 19 W/L vs Top 50: 3-9 3-7 W/L last 10 gms: 2-8 7-3 *NOTE: Team A needs to be in the Tourney because they have 3 likely NBA prospects and Team B only has 1 Wonder how the committee will look at Smart missing games. Obviously he makes a huge difference, but not sure they should bump them because of why he missed action. A lot of times they will evaluate a team differently if they had a significant player miss a chunk of the season due to injury and now that player has returned. But I doubt they do that same thing for a suspended player or something that was within the players control. It was smarts fault that he missed time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuroranHusker Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Can someone please explain to me how Oklahoma St is a "lock" in most brackets. They're in something like 71 brackets as opposed to our 7. Compare this..... *Team A Team B RPI: 47 48 SOS: 20 19 W/L vs Top 50: 3-9 3-7 W/L last 10 gms: 2-8 7-3 *NOTE: Team A needs to be in the Tourney because they have 3 likely NBA prospects and Team B only has 1 Wonder how the committee will look at Smart missing games. Obviously he makes a huge difference, but not sure they should bump them because of why he missed action. A lot of times they will evaluate a team differently if they had a significant player miss a chunk of the season due to injury and now that player has returned. But I doubt they do that same thing for a suspended player or something that was within the players control. It was smarts fault that he missed time. Not to mention Okie State lost 4 straight ballgames even before Smart's 3-game suspension... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBigRed Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Except for Gonzaga (0), every top 30 team according to RPIForecast has anywhere between 1-4 top 25 RPI wins, except Wisconsin with an amazing 6 and Duke with 5. All 30 teams are locks to get in. Then when you look through 31-70, this is what you have for RPI top 25 wins: Kansas State - 3 (lock) Memphis - 2 (lock) Stanford - 2 (lock) George Washington - 2 (likely in) Oklahoma State - 2 (likely in) SMU - 2 (likley in) Saint Joseph's - 2 (bubble/likely in) Xavier - 2 (bubble/likley in) Baylor - 2 (bubble/likely in) Minnesota - 2 (bubble) Nebraska - 2 (bubble) Georgetown - 2 (bubble) Florida State - 2 (bubble) 17 teams - 1 If we were to win the Wisconsin game and get to 3 top 25 wins (with one on the road), that would put us in an elite group. I only count 11 teams in the whole nation with 3 or more top 25 wins currently. Yes our 7 losses to top 25 teams is more than basically anybody. But that shouldn't count against us; it means we have faced a brutal schedule. Honestly, if we win out at home and lose both on the road to get to 18-12 (10-8) with 3 top 25 wins and 7 of our 12 losses coming to top 25 teams, we would have a very strong case to be in. With 1 win in the tourney, I would be surprised if we didn't get in. This article says "When faced with the quandary of a team with impressive wins and head-scratching losses, such as North Carolina, the committee puts more emphasis on the wins. As Gavitt noted, nearly all the games in the tournament come against top-50 opponents." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuttlesworth Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 We seem to be picking up steam. The Matrix hasn't been updated, but a handful of the sites that figure into it have. Of the ones who have, it's pretty much a consensus that we're either last four in or first four out. Who has us "In" 11 Seed Realtime RPI Dudes on Sports 12 Seed University of Illinois-Urbana/Champaign Attack Bracketology Jabesblog Rocco Miller Dre's Mock Bracket Primetime Bracketology Crashing the Dance Daily Bracket Ruckles BracketMaker Norm Peterson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallbaby21 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Are we sure K State isnt on the Bruce Weber Collapse Plan ? Shuttlesworth and hhcmatt 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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