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How long before this ship is headed in the right direction?


Norm Peterson

So, how long before Miles turns this thing around?  

72 members have voted

  1. 1. How many years before we're competitive in the Bee One Gee?

    • We have basically a whole new team coming in and loads of additional athleticism. I think it happens next year.
      13
    • Boy, David Rivers' senior year should have half a dozen players with two full seasons being with the team and an opportunity to bring in some good players for the '14 recruiting class. I'd say 2 years.
      39
    • Miles probably needs another couple of recruiting classes to not only get "his" guys but also up the quality. Figure by the time Pitchford, Petteway, Shields and Parker are seniors, we should be making noise.
      15
    • This is a process. And it's not going to be easy. And it's not going to happen overnight. We're going to have to get better players than even our 2013 class before we can move up the ladder. Figure year 4 at the soonest.
      5


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Well, I think we'er already full speed ahead in the right direction.  I also think it's quite a long way to shore.  I think it's the year after next, at best, that we've got a shot at the bubble.  I could see an NIT bid next year.  There would have to be a lot of start aligning for NU to get there next year.

 

I also disagree with the notion that we'll be tiny next year.  We'll be considerably bigger at every position except the 5.  We definitely need to get better there, but the idea that we'll be small next year isn't really accurate either.

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Well, I think we'er already full speed ahead in the right direction.  I also think it's quite a long way to shore.  I think it's the year after next, at best, that we've got a shot at the bubble.  I could see an NIT bid next year.  There would have to be a lot of start aligning for NU to get there next year.

 

I also disagree with the notion that we'll be tiny next year.  We'll be considerably bigger at every position except the 5.  We definitely need to get better there, but the idea that we'll be small next year isn't really accurate either.

 

I don't see how we'll be bigger at every spot except the 5 next season based on a projected starting line-up, and I added weight to all returning roster players to account for S&C gains.

 

1 Dylan Talley, 6-5, 215 vs. Deverell Biggs, 6-0, 180

2 Ray Gallegos, 6-2, 180 vs. Ray Gallegos, 6-2, 185

3 Shavon Shields, 6-6, 215 vs. Shavon Shields, 6-6, 220

4 David Rivers, 6-7, 190 vs. Terran Petteway, 6-6, 205

5 Brandon Ubel, 6-10, 235 vs. Walter Pitchford, 6-10, 235

 

2012 Team Starter Average: 6-6, 207 lbs.

2013 Team Starter Average: 6-5, 205 lbs.

 

Next year's team is, in fact, likely to be a bit smaller than this year's team, at least in terms of a projected starting line-up. My line-up may not be accurate, but it's the most likely starting five at this point.

 

Not only is Nebraska likely to be slightly smaller than this year, it will be the smallest team in the B1G by a sizable margin barring any late roster additions like Atewe.

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Sure, that's a possible lineup, but Webster, Fuller and Hawkins are all likely to be in the rotation and they're all bigger than Parker. We don't have a replacement for Andre, but we'll also likely see a lineup of Webster, Petteway, Fuller, Shields, Pitchford at times.  It's not a given at all that Biggs starts for this team next year.

 

They need some more help on the post, but they're not going to be small next year every where else.  They're going to have quite a bit of flexibility with their lineups.

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Sure, that's a possible lineup, but Webster, Fuller and Hawkins are all likely to be in the rotation and they're all bigger than Parker. We don't have a replacement for Andre, but we'll also likely see a lineup of Webster, Petteway, Fuller, Shields, Pitchford at times.  It's not a given at all that Biggs starts for this team next year.

 

They need some more help on the post, but they're not going to be small next year every where else.  They're going to have quite a bit of flexibility with their lineups.

 

Nebraska will have a ton more flexibility with line-ups, a lot more overall team depth, more talent overall, more scoring punch, etc. However, what if you were Tim Miles and you wanted to go big next year at times. How would you accomplish that with the current roster? It's basically impossible unless you put Vooch on the court.

 

People can say it's no big deal to go into games like Michigan State or Minnesota and give up 20-25 lbs. per man to them in weight, on average, but it matters a lot, and until we bridge the physical gap that exists between us and other teams in the conference, it's going to be a struggle in my opinion.

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This certainly depends on how one defines "How long before this ship is headed in the right direction?" or "So, how long before Miles turns this thing around?"

 

You can easily argue the ship already has been turned around.

To go along with our facilities upgrades, we have a coaching staff that isn't trying to keep us in contention for 7th-10th place through JUCOs and quick fixes.


We're redshirting guys.

We finally recognized Tyronn Lue.

We're laying the groundwork to build a sustained success.

 

"How long before Miles turns this around" can be much more concretely defined as "How long before we return to the NCAA tournament?"  Obtaining a certain level of ranking in the B1G is great, but finishing 6th in the B1G doesn't mean a lot if you're not dancing.  

 

Mark me down for year 3 or 4.

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Well, I think we'er already full speed ahead in the right direction.  I also think it's quite a long way to shore.  I think it's the year after next, at best, that we've got a shot at the bubble.  I could see an NIT bid next year.  There would have to be a lot of start aligning for NU to get there next year.

 

I also disagree with the notion that we'll be tiny next year.  We'll be considerably bigger at every position except the 5.  We definitely need to get better there, but the idea that we'll be small next year isn't really accurate either.

 

I don't see how we'll be bigger at every spot except the 5 next season based on a projected starting line-up, and I added weight to all returning roster players to account for S&C gains.

 

1 Dylan Talley, 6-5, 215 vs. Deverell Biggs, 6-0, 180

2 Ray Gallegos, 6-2, 180 vs. Ray Gallegos, 6-2, 185

3 Shavon Shields, 6-6, 215 vs. Shavon Shields, 6-6, 220

4 David Rivers, 6-7, 190 vs. Terran Petteway, 6-6, 205

5 Brandon Ubel, 6-10, 235 vs. Walter Pitchford, 6-10, 235

 

2012 Team Starter Average: 6-6, 207 lbs.

2013 Team Starter Average: 6-5, 205 lbs.

 

Next year's team is, in fact, likely to be a bit smaller than this year's team, at least in terms of a projected starting line-up. My line-up may not be accurate, but it's the most likely starting five at this point.

 

Not only is Nebraska likely to be slightly smaller than this year, it will be the smallest team in the B1G by a sizable margin barring any late roster additions like Atewe.

I have to agree with this.  Counting on Freshman when it comes to matters of size and strength is NOT a good idea.  Fact is, no matter how tall a kid is as a Freshman, 90% of them are going to be thinner and weaker than their upperclassman counterparts, and in most cases less physical and aggressive.

 

I've seen these guys practice this season, including the three transfers/redshirts.  The only one of the three that plays physical for his size is Petteway.  Biggs plays no more or no less physical than he should at his size, and Pitchford plays far less physical than his size.

 

I still say Biggs, Pitchford, Petteway, Webster, Hawkins, and Fuller are going to be upgrades over what's out there now, but I don't believe it will be because we play "bigger" than we did this season.  I think we'll still be "bullied" by the bruiser teams with upperclassmen size.

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I look at the program kind of like this right now:

 

- Under Sadler, the program was like a broken plane that tried to taxi down the runway but was called back to the gate for mechnical problems, where it sat, for years, with a bunch of pissed-off passengers inside waiting to take off.

 

- This year, the plane got fixed enough to start taxiing down the runway again.

 

- Next year, we're probably going to keep taxiing down the runway, but we may get lift-off.

 

- By 2014-2015, I expect this plane to be in the air on its ascent. Some of you believe the plane will be in the air by next year, and I'd love for you to be right, but I still say it will take one more year.

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A lot have said that we will be "smaller" next year...but you also have to consider that if our lineup goes a bit "smaller" and more athletic, that other teams may have to try and match that.  Remember when Sadler had the smallest lineup in the NCAA and we went 8-8.  Other teams big mean couldn't keep us with us sometimes when we were on offense as we would spread them out and bring their bigs away from the hoop.  So other coaches would have to counter and try and go small so they could defend us. 

 

SO, with that said, Miles has made it very clear he would like to run a 4 out, 1 in lineup.  If you put guys like Gallegos, Shields, Hawkins, Fuller, Petteway, Biggs on the floor (not all together obviously) other teams may have to try and match us as we will do a ton of dribble drive offense.  If they stay on the shooter we hope they get to the lane and finish, if they come in to help, we kick to the open shooters.  Plus, if Pitchford is our "big" he is athletic enough to also spread them out.

 

At CSU Miles wasn't very big ever, but he did a hell of a job with floor spacing and making other teams come out and guard them.  MSU for example when on defense wouldn't be able to have the two giants just sit in the lane if we have 3-4 guys that can shoot the ball.  They would have to come out and defend us.  You would hope our athletic wings could penetrate right past them.  If they stay in the lane, we shoot open 3's.  So it can go both ways with the size issue, and Miles is smart enough to know that if they stay big and we are more "athletic" around the wings that we can give them fits with our dribble drive motion offense.

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A lot have said that we will be "smaller" next year...but you also have to consider that if our lineup goes a bit "smaller" and more athletic, that other teams may have to try and match that.  Remember when Sadler had the smallest lineup in the NCAA and we went 8-8.  Other teams big mean couldn't keep us with us sometimes when we were on offense as we would spread them out and bring their bigs away from the hoop.  So other coaches would have to counter and try and go small so they could defend us. 

 

SO, with that said, Miles has made it very clear he would like to run a 4 out, 1 in lineup.  If you put guys like Gallegos, Shields, Hawkins, Fuller, Petteway, Biggs on the floor (not all together obviously) other teams may have to try and match us as we will do a ton of dribble drive offense.  If they stay on the shooter we hope they get to the lane and finish, if they come in to help, we kick to the open shooters.  Plus, if Pitchford is our "big" he is athletic enough to also spread them out.

 

At CSU Miles wasn't very big ever, but he did a hell of a job with floor spacing and making other teams come out and guard them.  MSU for example when on defense wouldn't be able to have the two giants just sit in the lane if we have 3-4 guys that can shoot the ball.  They would have to come out and defend us.  You would hope our athletic wings could penetrate right past them.  If they stay in the lane, we shoot open 3's.  So it can go both ways with the size issue, and Miles is smart enough to know that if they stay big and we are more "athletic" around the wings that we can give them fits with our dribble drive motion offense.

 

Good post, and what you said makes a lot of sense, but the fact remains that this team has got to be able to rebound the basketball if it wants to be more than just a bottom feeder in the Conference. Next year's team figures to be a very poor rebounding unit due to being undersized, and I believe that will hurt us badly.

 

I don't believe it's a viable strategy to think you can get away with being small and quick over the long term in a big, physical conference like the B1G. Being an outlier physically in the Conference just doesn't seem to be the way to go in my view. Rather, I believe you have to join the arms race and get enough talented bigs to play the B1G game.

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Huskers will make their 1st of many visits to the NCAA tournament, NEXT year under Coach Miles. I'm confident we'll have some big boys signed up by then, along with some guys who can, get this, SHOOT a basketball.

 

I don't see it Handy, but if it happens, they should tear Miles' contract to shreds and write up a new one immediately that pays him a top-10 salary nationally, because he would have achieved one of the most impressive coaching feats in college basketball over the past decade in my opinion.

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Pretty sure we ARE ALREADY headed in the right direction and I think we are already seeing some good things from the current team. I, for one, am really proud of the way they have played even though the wins aren't there. Put the current players and the redshirts with the incoming players and I think NEXT YEAR will be pretty exciting and TWO YEARS from now we will knocking on the NCAA door.

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I don't see us making the dance next year either, unless one of the transfers/redshirt/freshmen comes in and becomes a Marcus Smart freshman that's a possible lotto pick.

 

Here's my line of thinking: first, it takes transfers/redshirts time to get back into the rhythm and timing of playing live games in front of fans - both home and away - before they play up to their potential.  That usually takes around half a season.  A number of games into conference schedule is the earliest I think we can expect any of their best.  Second, counting on even ONE of the freshmen to give you enough quality minutes to make a significant change in the win column is a stretch, much less two or three (or four if we can sign a big like Atewe).  Third, all of the transfers/redshirts/freshmen will be learning to play in a new system, at game speeds for the first time.  I know Biggs, Petteway, and Pitchford have been there a year, but executing and producing in game is totally different than practice.  And lastly, I have always believed winning is as much mental/cultural as it is physical.  The guys who will be back next season are used to losing (for the most part).  It's going to be a process and take time to learn to win games with something riding on them.

 

We'll make the NIT next year, and become a fixture in the NCAA's every year after that!!

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The thing that worries me most about next year is hearing (reading) that Pitchford isn't very physical for his size.  He's our only guy with size right now and we need him to be a low post presence.  Now, if we bring in a bruiser, he could certainly be Adreian Payne to that other guy's Derrick Nix, and I'd be fine with that.  But I truly hope we can land a big bruiser center who has size, athleticism and skill.  Just don't know if it's in the cards for us for this coming season or not.

 

To echo what I said in a thread a few weeks back, if we somehow land a quality big man as a graduate transfer immediately eligible for next year, it'll be like a sign of the apocalypse.  A sign that the worm is finally starting to turn.  Short of that, though, I have a tendency to agree with BigTexHusker that we're at least another year away.  Too little experience and too many new players to blend in for us to really make a move next year.

 

When Rivers is a senior and the trio of Webster, Hawkins and Fuller are sophomores, though, we could really start to blossom.

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What are your expectations for next year Norm (assuming we land Atewe, which I think we do)? CBI? NIT? No post-season? Honestly, though I'm full of optimism to see these transfers and recruits, I would consider making any postseason probably the max expectations anybody should realistically have, and confirmation that we're heading in the right direction.

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Aksker, I think it's just too soon for us to make a susbtantial move up the ladder next year.  We're going to be deeper and marginally more talented but there will still be a talent gap between us and the next teams up the ladder. 

 

I think youth and inexperience will be the biggest issues for us.  Like Doc's 4th season after the year of the mighty mites.  Sure, we added signficant size and probably skill but we lost experience. 

 

Of COURSE we should be better next year.  Not sure how much of an immediate impact a guy like Atewe can have.  It would be my hope that he would come in and start right away but I'm afraid that's probably hoping too much.  He is a fantastic athlete and doesn't need time to develop physically the way Sergej does.  But he does need time to learn and mature as a player and further develop his skills and his intuition for the game and that's something that just takes time.  There's no substitute for time in developing a big like that.

 

I really like our recruiting class even if we don't add to it.  Would like to add a big guy, don't get me wrong, but I really like the guards/wings we have signed and think they could be good.  But Shields will be better next year than he is this year and those guys will be better as sophomores than they will be as freshmen.  What we'll see next year is the potential they have, just like we see the potential in Shields this year.

 

I think we should be a stronger non-conference team next year.  I do NOT think we lose to a Kent State at home next year.  And perhaps not a UTEP either (although UTEP has signed a 5-star player -- perhaps he won't qualify).  I think we would win that Purdue game with next year's roster (assuming we get that other big.)  And we might knock off Wisconsin at home with next year's roster.

 

But we still lose to Ohio State twice, still lose to Michigan State twice, still lose to Michigan on the road, still lose to Indiana on the road, still lose to Minnesota on the road.  Even with next year's roster we would still have lost those games.  So, instead of sitting on 3 wins right now, we'd maybe be sitting on 5?  Six?  So, instead of 3-10, we'd be 5-8 in conference?  Maybe 16-10 overall? 

 

I'd say it is reasonable to suggest that we'll be a solid NIT team next season.  I think that's realistic.  I do not think an NCAA birth is realistic for next year but I think it's reasonable to think we might have a shot at being on the bubble in year 3.

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I happen to believe that this team needs to be able to put a bigger line-up on the court next year at times where Pitchford becomes a 4 and someone like Atewe is at the 5. That gives the Huskers a lot more size if the coaches feel we need it to match up.

 

I look at Atewe as a guy who'd have a very strong chance to come in and start as a true freshman. There's only one player on the Husker roster right now who's similar to him physically, and that's Pitchford, but Pitchford came through the ranks as a wing, and that's his background. He doesn't have years of high school and AAU experience banging in the paint and rebounding like Atewe presumably does. I therefore don't believe that Pitchford would hold much of an advantage over Atewe for that starting 5 spot should Atewe come on board. 

 

In Pitchford, we're trying to take a wing with phenomenal athletic ability and build him into a center. That's going to take time, not only in terms of his physical development, but also his mental and technical development.

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I happen to believe that this team needs to be able to put a bigger line-up on the court next year at times where Pitchford becomes a 4 and someone like Atewe is at the 5. That gives the Huskers a lot more size if the coaches feel we need it to match up.

 

I look at Atewe as a guy who'd have a very strong chance to come in and start as a true freshman. There's only one player on the Husker roster right now who's similar to him physically, and that's Pitchford, but Pitchford came through the ranks as a wing, and that's his background. He doesn't have years of high school and AAU experience banging in the paint and rebounding like Atewe presumably does. I therefore don't believe that Pitchford would hold much of an advantage over Atewe for that starting 5 spot should Atewe come on board. 

 

In Pitchford, we're trying to take a wing with phenomenal athletic ability and build him into a center. That's going to take time, not only in terms of his physical development, but also his mental and technical development.

Miles is going to put the best players on the court regardless of how big they are. Atewe could turn out to be just as big of a project as Sergej has been. Atewe's film does not suggest he will be starting next year.

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