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Roby (is Good)

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5 minutes ago, Dean Smith said:

I'm pretty sure the staff and team are well aware of who shoots how many and how well. They are not incompetent. You'd be hard-pressed to find a junior high coach that did not know those type of statistics. 

Sorry my statistics came across as incompetent to you. 

 

That is fine and dandy that my dog could come up with the stats I pointed out, but that does not explain why Watson shot more than double what Roby did last your.  So maybe they were well aware of the stat, they sure as hell didn't capitalize on it.

Edited by big red22

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2 hours ago, big red22 said:

Sorry my statistics came across as incompetent to you. 

 

That is fine and dandy that my dog could come up with the stats I pointed out, but that does not explain why Watson shot more than double what Roby did last your.  So maybe they were well aware of the stat, they sure as hell didn't capitalize on it.

I never said your stats were incompetent. I'm not sure how numbers can be incompetent. I said it appeared you were implying the staff was incompetent by saying they didn't already know that. Basketball is coached and played by people, not machines. You can't control every little thing and there is more to it than simple numbers. I agree that some of Watson's shots were forced but part of the reason he took more shots than Roby was Roby's fault. He had an unwillingness to impress his will on the game. He simply wasn't aggressive enough. It's not his personality but that's something I'm sure everyone involved is working on. Another reason is Watson took shots in transition that he made his sophomore year that he did not finish last year. We want him to take those this coming season but he needs to finish at a higher rate. As well being a primary ball handler Watson had the ball in his hands near the end of the shot clock way more than Roby did leading to tougher shots that also affected his shooting percentage in a negative way. Basketball is more complicated than simple numbers. Though I agree with the general premise that Roby needs to shoot more this coming season it can't be done simply by saying Roby and Watson will swap their number of shots. 

Edited by Dean Smith

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Maybe the 2 biggest challenges this year (1) developing depth at wings (2) maximizing efficiency on offense by figuring out who gets shots.

 

As Dean said above, it's not as simple as saying Watson should shoot less and Roby more, since a lot of shot selection is taking what the defense gives you. Teams let Glynn take 3s because he doesn't hit them and they can play back to cut off his drives. If everyone else is locked down, Glynn often has to take the shot. Also, is Roby our best player based on NBA potential? Maybe, but does he become the priority over a potential BIG first teamer in Palmer? And Cope was our most efficient player on offense, does he have less priority than Roby? I don't have the answer to any of that, and neither does the coaching staff at this point. They'll figure it out this fall and in early games. 

 

Actually, defense is always the biggest challenge, but who wants to talk about that?

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16 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

Roby is the best player on the team. Last year he was woefully underutilized on offense. Roby was by far the most efficient scorer on the team and was one of the most efficient scorers in the B1G. He should be the focal point of the offense and most sets should run through him. The days of Palmer shooting 15-20 times every game should be over and Miles should be exhorting Roby to be more aggressive and looking to both score and create for others. He also should have the green light to bring the ball up the court on a good portion of his defensive rebounds. 

 

4 hours ago, Huskerpapa said:

I'm not convinced that he was underutilized; rather, I don't believe he always took advantage of his open looks and his one-on-one situations.  Now, why he didn't jump on those opportunities is up for discussion.  Did he lack confidence?   Was he overly team oriented?  Was he restricted by the coaches?  Was he under pressure from his teammates?   I cannot definitely say, but my guess is that he lacked confidence,  but that confidence started to grow as the season progressed.

 

A few things on this discussion:

 

1.  I agree with Huskerpapa saying it might have been less about Isaiah being underutilized and more a matter of Isaiah not having a selfish mentality, which is good.  But I also think he needs to develop more of a scorer's mentality and I thought so last season and shared that observation with someone close to Isaiah who agreed with me.

 

2.  If you look at Isaiah to close the season vs. Isaiah to open it, he was starting to be more assertive at looking for his offense.  He'll have a ton more opportunities this coming season because some other players graduated and their leftovers will get spread around.  I expect you're going to see a continuation of the Isaiah more in tune with the way he finished last season than the way he started it.  And building from there.  There will be plenty of looks to go around.

 

3.  Isaiah might have been more efficient than Palmer, but part of that is each player might get a certain number of easy buckets.  Isaiah probably gets more of those than James, to be honest.  But after those easy ones, everything else you have to work a little harder for.  So, if Isaiah increased his volume, the volume increase is probably going to come in the form of shots he'll have to work harder to get. Now, maybe he'll convert a good percentage of those.  But will he do so driving into contact, getting fouled and going to the line like James Palmer?

 

4.  Palmer shot 221 free throws last season.  He hit 74% of those.  There's probably a statistic somewhere for how many fouls he drew, but let's estimate it was probably about 1 1/2 free throws for every foul.  If that estimate is close, then we can say he drew about 150 fouls, which is roughly 4.5 fouls/game.  How many opposing players fouled out trying to guard JP?  How many opposing players had to switch to guarding someone else or play defense more tentatively because they were in foul trouble?  That doesn't happen if James doesn't have the ball in his hand.

 

5.  James Palmer's assist numbers (2nd most on the team at 99) show he's not just hogging the ball but initiating offense and distributing.  That doesn't happen without the ball in his hands.

 

Edited to add:  6.  Also, in the 6 games where James Palmer attempted 15 or more FGs, he finished with 24, 34, 18, 28, 26 and 13 points.  How do you tell him to stop taking shots?

Edited by Norm Peterson

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4 hours ago, big red22 said:

While I whole heartedly agree with you, Palmer is still going to shoot the rock 12-15 times a game.  We averaged 57 shots per game last year, and Palmer averaged 12.4 shots per game.  That is what I think he should shoot on average, because Palmer is off the charts when he is hot.  He should take 15 when he is hot, and maybe 10 when he is off to keep the other team honest.

 

Roby on the other hand only averaged 5.25 shots per game, and that is an absolute travesty! 

 

If we shoot the ball 57 times a game again this year the shots should be as follows...

 

  • Palmer =11-12
  • Copeland = 9-10 (Every game he needs to be here)
  • Roby = 9-10 (Every game he needs to be here)
  • Watson = 6 (He could take some of Palmer's shots if he is feeling it)
  • Allen = 6 (4 if he is off and 8 if he is hitting)
  • Jordy = 6 (He need to shoot this much to keep them honest down low)
  • Rest of team = 7-10

 

EDIT:

 

  • Roby = 95 for 168 on the year
  • Watson = 120 for 346 on the year
  • Roby = 5.25 shots per game
  • Watson = 10.48 shots per game

 

^^^ Something seems backwards here

 

So if Roby took 346 shots last year he would of made 195 shots... Then if Watson only took 168 shots he would of made 63 shots... We would of made 43 more shots on the year.  This stat needs to be shown to the team IMO!

 

 

 

 

Serious question:  How many of those shot attempts would you allocate to Michael Jacobson and Ed Morrow if they had stuck around?

 

I'm going to say "Rest of team - 7-10."

 

Anyone disagree?

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17 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Serious question:  How many of those shot attempts would you allocate to Michael Jacobson and Ed Morrow if they had stuck around?

 

I'm going to say "Rest of team - 7-10."

 

Anyone disagree?

Yes... but not in the fact that they would get 7-10... Morrow would get 4-5 along with Jordy getting 4-5 and Jacobson would get 0 because he would be on the bench.  Then the rest would probably split the 6-8 shots.

 

I would absolutely love to have morrow on this team as a post player!!!

Edited by big red22

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4 hours ago, big red22 said:

So if Roby took 346 shots last year he would of made 195 shots... Then if Watson only took 168 shots he would of made 63 shots... We would of made 43 more shots on the year.  This stat needs to be shown to the team IMO!

 

You can't accurately assume that guys taking more or less shots would shoot at the same percentage.

Typically the more you are involved with the offense the less efficient you will be (take more bad shots, defense try harder to stop you

 

image.png

 

 

image.png

 

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018

 

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52 minutes ago, khoock said:

My God, i just did the math and if Roby just took all 57 shots per game we would have been so much better.

Hahaha good one.... Shuuuuuud up

 

There's always gotta be one I guess

Edited by big red22

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You guys are freaking ridiculous... I am simply pointing out and obvious fact.  Roby needs to shoot the ball more than he did.  With him taking more shots someone will have to shoot less.

 

I'm tired of the dumb ass back handed jabs at me when I provide this board with useful info.

 

HHCDimes... I'm not an idiot.  I am pointing out that the "CHANCES" are better.  It is not a damn exact science, and I'm not trying to say it is, so I don't need lectures from you and Dean Smith.  I also don't need pointless jack ass posts like khoock's, that have no relevance!

Edited by big red22

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1 hour ago, big red22 said:

You guys are freaking ridiculous... I am simply pointing out and obvious fact.  Roby needs to shoot the ball more than he did.  With him taking more shots someone will have to shoot less.

 

I'm tired of the dumb ass back handed jabs at me when I provide this board with useful info.

 

HHCDimes... I'm not an idiot.  I am pointing out that the "CHANCES" are better.  It is not a damn exact science, and I'm not trying to say it is, so I don't need lectures from you and Dean Smith.  I also don't need pointless jack ass posts like khoock's, that have no relevance!

3

Technically it isn't completely necessary for someone to take fewer shots for Roby to get more shots. You could up the tempo and create more possessions creating more total shots overall. I hope that wasn't too obvious a fact to point out. 

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2 hours ago, big red22 said:

Yes... but not in the fact that they would get 7-10... Morrow would get 4-5 along with Jordy getting 4-5 and Jacobson would get 0 because he would be on the bench.  Then the rest would probably split the 6-8 shots.

 

I would absolutely love to have morrow on this team as a post player!!!

 

Trouble is, he's a wing.  At least he thinks so.

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16 hours ago, big red22 said:

HHCDimes... I'm not an idiot.  I am pointing out that the "CHANCES" are better.  It is not a damn exact science, and I'm not trying to say it is, so I don't need lectures from you

 

My thought would be why do you think that the guys having it pointed out to them that Roby should be more involved with the offense is a helpful observation but it's a lecture if someone points out to you that your efficiency numbers aren't accounting for usage changes. 

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8 hours ago, big red22 said:

You guys are freaking ridiculous... I am simply pointing out and obvious fact.  Roby needs to shoot the ball more than he did.  With him taking more shots someone will have to shoot less.

 

I'm tired of the dumb ass back handed jabs at me when I provide this board with useful info.

 

HHCDimes... I'm not an idiot.  I am pointing out that the "CHANCES" are better.  It is not a damn exact science, and I'm not trying to say it is, so I don't need lectures from you and Dean Smith.  I also don't need pointless jack ass posts like khoock's, that have no relevance!

It was a joke, relax. We are allowed to have a little fun on here.

 

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1.  For the first half of the season Roby was only playing 19 minutes per game on average.  He averaged just 24 minutes per game for the entire season, which is less than Anton Gill and Evan Taylor.

 

2.  If Roby didn't have the "confidence" to be more of a playmaker, gee, I wonder why?  Roby would get pulled out of the game and ripped on time and time again for any small mistake.  We all saw it.  If you were Roby, and you knew you were going get benched and ripped if you made a single mistake, would you be overly-aggressive in attacking the basket or trying to shoot or create or make things happen?  Heck, one time he got yanked and ripped for being called for an illegal screen when two Minnesota players simply ran into each other.  And the argument that he couldn't play longer because of fouls doesn't hold water because by the end of the year was playing over 30 minutes a game which proves he could.

 

3.  I don't have much inside info to share with this board, but I do happen to know that there were prominent people around the basketball program who were imploring Miles last season to make Roby a more prominent part of the offense and to quit pulling him out of the game every time he made a little mistake

 

4.  I agree that more shots will decrease his efficiency, that is going to be true with any player.   But the odds are that he will still be more efficient than average.  Palmer finished the year shooting under 31% from 3.  That is not efficient at all.  Palmer is awesome.  He was awesome last year and carried the team though a stretch in the middle of the season.  But then when his shot quit falling towards the end of the season, there was no plan B.  Roby should have been groomed to be plan B or even A throughout the entire season, but he was not.  There were very few sets that were run through Roby.  My observation was that mindset was never instilled into Roby by Miles or the coaching staff.

 

5.  Somebody above said Copeland was our most efficient offensive player, but that is not correct.  Copeland shot 37% from 3 and 47% overall.  Roby shot 40.5% on 3 (granted on much lower volume, but that is partly my point) and a whopping 56.5% overall.  And this may surprise some, but Roby actually shot and made more free throws than Copeland on the year even though Copeland played 31 minutes/game and Roby only 24/game.  Oh, and Roby averaged more rebounds than Copeland per game even though he played 7 minutes less per game.  Not to mention twice as many blocks. 

 

6.  I hope all of this is water under the bridge.  Last year is over.  The hope is that lessons have been learned and Miles and staff now understand what they have in Roby and tailor their offense (and defense) to maximize his production and involvement in every aspect.  Roby is not just "potential".  He is the best player on the team right now.  The best player should be the focal point, but we'll have to see if it plays out that way.  

 

 

Edited by NUdiehard

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3 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

 

 

1.  For the first half of the season Roby was only playing 19 minutes per game on average.  He averaged just 24 minutes per game for the entire season, which is less than Anton Gill and Evan Taylor.

 

2.  If Roby didn't have the "confidence" to be more of a playmaker, gee, I wonder why?  Roby would get pulled out of the game and ripped on time and time again for any small mistake.  We all saw it.  If you were Roby, and you knew you were going get benched and ripped if you made a single mistake, would you be overly-aggressive in attacking the basket or trying to shoot or create or make things happen?  Heck, one time he got yanked and ripped for being called for an illegal screen when two Minnesota players simply ran into each other.  And the argument that he couldn't play longer because of fouls doesn't hold water because by the end of the year was playing over 30 minutes a game which proves he could.

 

3.  I don't have much inside info to share with this board, but I do happen to know that there were prominent people around the basketball program who were imploring Miles last season to make Roby a more prominent part of the offense and to quit pulling him out of the game every time he made a little mistake

 

4.  I agree that more shots will decrease his efficiency, that is going to be true with any player.   But the odds are that he will still be more efficient than average.  Palmer finished the year shooting under 31% from 3.  That is not efficient at all.  Palmer is awesome.  He was awesome last year and carried the team though a stretch in the middle of the season.  But then when his shot quit falling towards the end of the season, there was no plan B.  Roby should have been groomed to be plan B or even A throughout the entire season, but he was not.  There were very few sets that were run through Roby.  My observation was that mindset was never instilled into Roby by Miles or the coaching staff.

 

5.  Somebody above said Copeland was our most efficient offensive player, but that is not correct.  Copeland shot 37% from 3 and 47% overall.  Roby shot 40.5% on 3 (granted on much lower volume, but that is partly my point) and a whopping 56.5% overall.  And this may surprise some, but Roby actually shot and made more free throws than Copeland on the year even though Copeland played 31 minutes/game and Roby only 24/game.  Oh, and Roby averaged more rebounds than Copeland per game even though he played 7 minutes less per game.  Not to mention twice as many blocks. 

 

6.  I hope all of this is water under the bridge.  Last year is over.  The hope is that lessons have been learned and Miles and staff now understand what they have in Roby and tailor their offense (and defense) to maximize his production and involvement in every aspect.  Roby is not just "potential".  He is the best player on the team right now.  The best player should be the focal point, but we'll have to see if it plays out that way.  

 

 

Watched every game last year and the only time I saw Roby come out was when he was in foul trouble or when a natural rest break would be needed.  He was not held back, he was not limited on his involvement. Much of the two-man game was designed for him.  Hell, Miles restructured everything so he could get him on the floor more.  His tendency to get in foul trouble was the only thing that led to the limited avg for minutes per game that you showed above.

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4 hours ago, NUdiehard said:

3.  I don't have much inside info to share with this board, but I do happen to know that there were prominent people around the basketball program who were imploring Miles last season to make Roby a more prominent part of the offense and to quit pulling him out of the game every time he made a little mistake

 

I don't know exactly what qualifies as "prominent people." If it is an assistant coach then I suppose he should listen.  I suppose the athletic director would count as prominent. But no athletic director of any quality would try to dictate specific tactics to a coach. If by prominent you mean a booster then I would say no coach of any intelligence would listen to a booster try to talk tactics. Now I suppose a coach might have to pretend to listen politely to any booster arrogant enough to think they were qualified to make suggestions but they wouldn't listen. So I guess I still don't know what qualifies as "prominent people."

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2 hours ago, Dean Smith said:

I don't know exactly what qualifies as "prominent people." If it is an assistant coach then I suppose he should listen.  I suppose the athletic director would count as prominent. But no athletic director of any quality would try to dictate specific tactics to a coach. If by prominent you mean a booster then I would say no coach of any intelligence would listen to a booster try to talk tactics. Now I suppose a coach might have to pretend to listen politely to any booster arrogant enough to think they were qualified to make suggestions but they wouldn't listen. So I guess I still don't know what qualifies as "prominent people."

Miles doesn’t have to listen to  anybody. He is the head coach. He can do whatever he wants. Never meant to suggest otherwise. 

 

Edited by NUdiehard

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1 hour ago, NUdiehard said:

Miles doesn’t have to listen to  anybody. He is the head coach. He can do whatever he wants. Never meant to suggest otherwise. 

 

I wasn't suggesting you were. I was just saying I really don't know what qualifies as "prominent people around the basketball program." 

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On 7/12/2018 at 2:19 PM, hhcdimes said:

 

You can't accurately assume that guys taking more or less shots would shoot at the same percentage.

Typically the more you are involved with the offense the less efficient you will be (take more bad shots, defense try harder to stop you

 

image.png

 

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018

 

I have no clue what Bart Torvik is doing with those trend lines. The red line does not follow the data set at all. Glynn Watson's data, for example, actually has an increasing trend (higher usage equals higher offensive rating) although the R^2 is very low meaning there is not a predictable relationship between usage and offensive skill rating. See graph below:

 

GlynnWatsonOffensiveSkillCurve.PNG

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