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OurDecay

Roby (is Good)

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And he's a good young man off the court as well - OWH story today (behind the pay wall) about his community outreach work. Very cool.

 

http://www.omaha.com/huskers/plus/barfknecht-nebraska-s-isaiah-roby-is-a-big-man-on/article_7ffa9bf4-78df-501c-b9d4-568f4889e0bf.html

 

 

Quote

 

Roby is like a pied piper for kids and adults at Husker basketball games. He attracts large groups of hand-shakers and autograph seekers with his engaging personality and warm smile.

 

“It’s cool to represent the school like this,” he said. “It’s what Nebraska is about."

 

 

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On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 11:54 PM, OurDecay said:
If you take away the Wisconsin road game where he only played 17 minutes with foul trouble, here are Isaiah Roby's last 6 games:
 
vs Iowa: 30 mins, 17 pts, 8 reb, 3 blocks, 2 assists, 1 TO
@ Minn: 34 mins, 21 pts, 8 reb, 5 blocks, 2 assists, 1 TO
vs Rutg: 27 mins, 10 pts, 11 reb, 2 blocks, 2 assists, 1 TO
vs Mary: 32 mins, 11 pts, 10 reb, 3 blocks, 1 assist, 1 TO
@ Illinois: 32 mins, 14 pts, 10 reb, 3 blocks, 2 assists, 3 TO
vs Ind: 35 mins, 11 pts, 9 reb, 1 block, 2 assists, 2 TO
 
For an average of: 31.7 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 1.8 APG, 1.5 TPG
 
...that'll play.

 

Was thinking about this yesterday.  I'm not smart enough to do it, but I wonder if someone could create and post trend-line graphs that show Roby's trajectory over the course of 2 seasons in minutes, points and rebounds.  I'm curious to see where his trends would take him if you forecast them out over this coming season.

 

Anyone have the skills to do that?

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21 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Was thinking about this yesterday.  I'm not smart enough to do it, but I wonder if someone could create and post trend-line graphs that show Roby's trajectory over the course of 2 seasons in minutes, points and rebounds.  I'm curious to see where his trends would take him if you forecast them out over this coming season.

 

Anyone have the skills to do that?

I'm on vacation with no access to a computer right now, but this is very easy. The most time-consuming part would be getting the game by game box score data.

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38 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:
21 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Was thinking about this yesterday.  I'm not smart enough to do it, but I wonder if someone could create and post trend-line graphs that show Roby's trajectory over the course of 2 seasons in minutes, points and rebounds.  I'm curious to see where his trends would take him if you forecast them out over this coming season.

 

Anyone have the skills to do that?

I'm on vacation with no access to a computer right now, but this is very easy. The most time-consuming part would be getting the game by game box score data.

 

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On 2/22/2018 at 10:45 AM, Silverbacked1 said:

Stu Lantz?  Just before I can remember him.  Was going to games then but only 4 or 5 years old I think.  But isn't Roby kind  of like him from what I have heard?

 

Also this is just me, but Roby seems to be the type of kid that would stay for his senior year because he thinks he needs to get better.  HE doesn't think he is that good yet.  You can tell by his interviews and sometimes his body langauge on the court.  

 

I truly think he is a kid that will think and his parents too, that he will benefit from all four years of college.  Heck he might be able to shave by then.:mellow:

 

Lantz wasn't nearly as big as Roby.  He was a 6-3ish guard.   Stewart could really fill it up from outside (again too bad no 3-point line), he could take it to the rim and had great hops.  

 

Actually, another 6-3 type player that Roby makes me think about is Greg Downing.   Downing had similiar skills as I recall, but couldn't hold a candle to Isaiah's shot blocking & rim protecting.

 

All that said, because of all the things Isaiah can do and because of his unrealized potential, he's a one-of-a-kind type of player in NU history, IMHO. 

 

And "IF" he would become a dead-3 shooter, be a better defender away from the rim,  & improve his handles, he could be the best ever.   Big "IFs" though.

 

Most important, Isaiah needs to have a really good Junior season to keep the narrative alive.

Edited by Kent Pavelka

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Isaiah's shooting is coming around.  His jumper from year 1 to year 2 was totally transformed and I think the results speak for themselves.

 

Season Averages
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
2017-18 NEB 24.0 3.0-5.3 .565 0.5-1.3 .405 2.2-3.1 .724 6.3 1.7 2.0 0.6 3.2 1.5 8.7
2016-17 NEB 15.2 1.2-3.1 .394 0.1-0.7 .200 0.5-0.7 .762 2.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.9 1.2 3.1
Season Totals
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
2017-18 NEB 769 95-168 .565 17-42 .405 71-98 .724 200 53 63 20 103 48 278
2016-17 NEB 457 37-94 .394 4-20 .200 16-21 .762 88 22 25 16 58 36 94

 

If he continues to improve that shot, look out.  He has a surprising ability to shoot off the dribble; I'll try to find the video I saw of that.  Also, he can dribble fast in a straight line, so, in the open floor, he's pretty effective.  It's dribbling on the drive and changing direction that pose challenges for him.  He'll lose the handle trying to get around someone, for instance.  But that's fixable.

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I looked real quick and couldn't find the video of Roby shooting off the dribble, but he's apparently one of the more accurate guys around when it comes to shooting off the dribble.  If I remember right, he's more accurate off the dribble than in catch-and-shoot situations.

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Is Roby at some point to be the focal point of the offense? With us bringing back almost everyone it seems pretty unlikely this season.

KenPom has a stat called %Shot.  It's a quick way to look at how often a guy shoots when he's on the floor.

----------------------

Percentage of shots taken (%Shots): This is the percentage of a team’s shots taken, while the player is on the court. This is a pretty good proxy for %Poss, and significantly easier to calculate. It is PlayerFGA / (%Min * TeamFGA).

------------------------

You can look at the 2016-17 team and see that Jacobson played more minutes than Jordy but Jordy shot a lot more when he was on the court. That should line up with almost everyone's memory.

 

Last year Roby's %shot number was 15.2% and his freshman year it was 13.5%...two very low numbers. While guys like James Palmer and Keita Bates-Diop don't start out taking a high percentage of their teams' shots they typically don't start out taking so few shots even in limited time.  Some guys simply aren't as aggressive/don't need to dominate the ball.

 

One person to look at given the time to mature and the opportunity was Tai Webster. 

His %Shots by year

Fr: 11.7

So: 15.5

Jr: 19.6

Sr: 26.7

 

What's the record for double-doubles in a season for us? This year I'd love to see him break it for us as he still work on his game and the year after I'd love for him to turn into Keita Bates-Diop.

 

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23 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Was thinking about this yesterday.  I'm not smart enough to do it, but I wonder if someone could create and post trend-line graphs that show Roby's trajectory over the course of 2 seasons in minutes, points and rebounds.  I'm curious to see where his trends would take him if you forecast them out over this coming season.

 

Anyone have the skills to do that?

 

It's on Bartovik's site

 

After you build up stats it's harder to move the moving average.  The 5 game average illustrates the bounces towards the end of the season you're referring to though with increased minutes you'd naturally expect his raw stats to increase.

 

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50 minutes ago, Kent Pavelka said:

 

Lantz wasn't nearly as big as Roby.  He was a 6-3ish guard.   Stewart could really fill it up from outside (again too bad no 3-point line), he could take it to the rim and had great hops.  

 

Actually, another 6-3 type player that Roby makes me think about is Greg Downing.   Downing had similiar skills as I recall, but couldn't hold a candle to Isaiah's shot blocking & rim protecting.

 

All that said, because of all the things Isaiah can do and because of his unrealized potential, he's a one-of-a-kind type of player in NU history, IMHO. 

 

And "IF" he would become a dead-3 shooter, be a better defender away from the rim,  & improve his handles, he could be the best ever.   Big "IFs" though.

 

Most important, Isaiah needs to have a really good Junior season to keep the narrative alive.

I believe you are pretty spot on Kent.  Defensively Isaiah is sort of like Mikki Moore.  He can cover a lot of space quickly and can get to nearly any shot, and thus is very disruptive.  Offensively, he is sort of like Larry Florence.  He can be spectacular going to the rim.  I always hoped that Larry could develop a stronger perimeter gsme...something that I believe Isaiah can and will do.

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Good info, Dimes.  With the graduation/departure of 400+ shot attempts from last year, I see Isaiah making a similar jump as Tai Webster from year 2 to year 3.  

 

As we know, Tai was better with the ball on the drive, and that's something Isaiah needs to work on.  That, and he doesn't always finish strong.  But his sophomore shooting numbers are very encouraging compared to Tai's.

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5 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

Good info, Dimes.  With the graduation/departure of 400+ shot attempts from last year, I see Isaiah making a similar jump as Tai Webster from year 2 to year 3.  

 

As we know, Tai was better with the ball on the drive, and that's something Isaiah needs to work on.  That, and he doesn't always finish strong.  But his sophomore shooting numbers are very encouraging compared to Tai's.

 

Yeah I think something in the range of 18%-20% seems pretty reasonable. That's where Anton Gill or Jordy were at last year if anyone needs an example.

We'll see how this year goes but I think we can chalk up Roby's miserable freshman shooting numbers to recovering from an injury vs Tai just being a poor shooter.

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14 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

Is Roby at some point to be the focal point of the offense? With us bringing back almost everyone it seems pretty unlikely this season.

KenPom has a stat called %Shot.  It's a quick way to look at how often a guy shoots when he's on the floor.

 

 

If I had my way, we'd run the half court offense through him the majority of the time.  Because he's so naturally gifted as a passer, I think he needs to have a scorer's mentality first and create open shots for himself/others by being decisive and aggressive.  I trust him to make the right play.  Guys like that need to be aggressive.  

 

I literally saw zero players that could guard Roby last season.  He's too quick for opposing 5s and too tall for opposing guards.  

 

Our top 4 guys need to average double figures this year.  I think Allen might sneak into that conversation as the fifth due to the minutes and open looks he'll get. But Roby needs to be someone who can not only bring the ball up off his own rebound, but actually run the point when he does bring it up.   

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If roby takes that next step forward in aggression offensively this team literally has no limit on how far it can go.

 

Try to limit expectations all you want... we've got an all big ten guard, a senior point guard and a serviceable or better interior.

 

Add another power forward and this team will go pretty much until someone better beats them -- and there won't be too many teams like that.  Less than ten.

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On 2/26/2018 at 9:06 PM, aphilso1 said:

 

This confuses me.  Does that stat mean Roby only attempted 11 jumpers after dribbling...for the entire year?  Holy small sample size, Batman.

Lol no kidding!!  This is about as meaningless as any stat I have ever seen.  

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If he can shoot the three at a high rate in greater attempts it would be huge to help keep the driving lanes open for Palmer.  Roby is a guy that has an incredible ceiling that could translate to big ten player of year type stuff.  If he takes step near that level and Watson gets back to prior form shooting the ball this is going to be fun.  Key will be staying intense on defense with the probable greater ease in scoring the ball.  

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17 minutes ago, royalfan said:

If he can shoot the three at a high rate in greater attempts it would be huge to help keep the driving lanes open for Palmer.  Roby is a guy that has an incredible ceiling that could translate to big ten player of year type stuff.  If he takes step near that level and Watson gets back to prior form shooting the ball this is going to be fun.  Key will be staying intense on defense with the probable greater ease in scoring the ball.  

 

Yeah.  Thing about Watson, as I showed yesterday, is that he had basically the same number of attempts soph and jr year but, because he shot the ball so much better from 3-point range as a soph, his scoring was a lot better.  Same attempts, basically.  

 

So, Glynn wouldn't need to steal shot attempts from anyone in order to up his production.  All he needs to do is connect at the rate he connected at when he was a sophomore.  I think we'll see a more confident Glynn Watson doing just that this coming season.

 

And if Glynn RETURNS to 40% from three, and Isaiah STAYS at 40% from three, and Copeland REACHES 40% from three, who do you try to stop when you're defending them?

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1 minute ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Yeah.  Thing about Watson, as I showed yesterday, is that he had basically the same number of attempts soph and jr year but, because he shot the ball so much better from 3-point range as a soph, his scoring was a lot better.  Same attempts, basically.  

 

So, Glynn wouldn't need to steal shot attempts from anyone in order to up his production.  All he needs to do is connect at the rate he connected at when he was a sophomore.  I think we'll see a more confident Glynn Watson doing just that this coming season.

 

And if Glynn RETURNS to 40% from three, and Isaiah STAYS at 40% from three, and Copeland REACHES 40% from three, who do you try to stop when you're defending them?

and Allen gets more comfortable and sustains his first half over a whole a season and Nana is as good as we hear...

Edited by uneblinstu

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