HHCC Standings - End of Week 15

[HuskerFever]

Highs and lows this week.

 

Week 15 includes:
Game #28 vs. Maryland
Game #29 at Illinois

 

HHCC Standings - End of Week 15

 

1    jimmykc    727    NC
2    Husker4Life    818    NC
3    trickey    864    NC
4    hhcdimes    883    NC
5    HuskerFever    897    NC
6    swoof    912    U1
7    AuroranHusker    915    D1
8    HB    915    U7
9    ConkintheCorner    920    NC
10    KenPom    924    NC
11    Buglem    941    D3
12    Bugeaters1    953    U6
13    brfrad    957    U3
14    huskercwg    958    NC
15    TheNovice    961    D2
16    bigred4    965    U1
17    cjbowbros    965    D6
18    runsoastowin    967    D6
19    HuskerPower #nato73    985    NC
20    Dead Dog Alley    986    U1
21    huskerbaseball13    995    U9
22    aphilso1    999    U1
23    Wolv77    1004    D3
24    Crush78    1018    U2
25    khoock    1025    NC
26    NeeandMe    1025    D4
27    1sdpad2    1027    U2
28    REDZONEDAN    1033    D1
29    NUtball    1044    U2
30    Busch Light    1054    U2
31    hal9000    1055    D3
32    BjoeHusker    1073    U2
33    4NUfans    1083    U2
34    twinswingohuskers    1086    D1
35    Noah121    1088    U1
36    demone    1095    U2
37    jayschool    1098    NC
38    LNKtrnsplnt    1109    U2
39    nuhusker7    1112    U3
40    emwilliams    1125    U1
41    UnicamMan    1136    U4
42    Blindcheck    1139    U4
43    jdostal    1139    NC
44    Nebrasketball5    1146    D20
45    MitchMcGaryMunchies    1147    U3
46    Silverbacked1    1168    U3
47    pmd9    1174    NC
48    basketballjones    1202    U7
49    BDL415    1207    U5
50    throwback    1217    U2
51    hskr4life    1219    D7
52    big red22    1222    D2
53    Chuck Taylor    1231    D2
54    Ralph Wiggum    1237    D15
55    colhusker    1240    U3
56    mrjam    1249    U1
57    Vinny    1257    U2
58    75unlgrad    1271    D5
59    NebrasketballJake    1311    U3
60    WestOHusker    1313    U1
61    MichHusker    1340    D5
62    Red Don    1360    U1
63    HuskerCager    1392    D3
64    Handy Johnson    1636    NC
65    Neon Budreau    1636    U1
66    boomer1    1761    D1
67    TheBowmaster    1948    NC
68    Jurgey    1974    U1
69    dustystehl    1975    D1
70    Nebrasketball1979    2043    NC
71    Jugular    2156    NC
72    cornfed24-7    2221    NC
73    kdorn3    2256    NC
74    oly_10    2264    U2
75    Erdbeereis    2305    D1
76    Cazzie22    2328    U3
77    BigTate    2333    D2
78    huskers29    2382    D1
79    LK1    2391    D1
80    nubest79    2413    NC
81    BugeaterZ    2425    NC
82    TheGolfGang    2440    NC
83    JBARGIE    2443    NC
84    ZAYWHAT!    2452    U5
85    Skersby90    2493    D1
86    hguy44    2504    U7
87    Section_316    2508    D2
88    Lnolley11    2509    D2
89    uneblinstu    2515    D2
90    jason2486    2516    D2
91    Atupe    2538    D1
92    Boots    2573    D1
93    rwmctrofholz    2575    D1
94    bkamler    2586    NC
95    Minnesota_Husker    2590    NC
96    busticket    2592    NC
97    Papa Gordon    2592    NC
98    Swan88    2592    NA
99    Lifetimesker    2599    D1
100    SittinOnThatDallasMaverick    2601    NA
101    TomEadesSucks    2606    D2
102    Faux Mike Peltz    2607    D2
103    soxnskers    2615    D2
104    Rome4Lyfe    2628    D2
            
Biggest Rise        huskerbaseball13    U9
Biggest Fall        Nebrasketball5    D20

(U# = Up, D# = Down, NC = No Change)

Edited February 19, 2018 by HuskerFever

[HuskerFever]

Game #28 vs. Maryland Results (70-66 W)

 

Picked NU: 62 (98%)
Average NU Score: 75.2
Average Opp Score: 68.8
Average HHCC Score: 13.7
Median HHCC Score: 12.0
Mode HHCC Score: 11

 

1    HB    -27
2    Neon Budreau    -1
3    UnicamMan    -1
4    Blindcheck    1
5    Wolv77    1
6    MitchMcGaryMunchies    3
7    Noah121    3
8    colhusker    4
9    Dead Dog Alley    5
10    HuskerFever    5
11    Chuck Taylor    6
12    HuskerPower #nato73    6
13    NUtball    6
14    REDZONEDAN    6
15    BjoeHusker    7
16    jdostal    7
17    trickey    7
18    AuroranHusker    8
19    4NUfans    9
20    Vinny    9
21    brfrad    10
22    cjbowbros    10
23    twinswingohuskers    10
24    Bugeaters1    11
25    demone    11
26    jayschool    11
27    jimmykc    11
28    KenPom    11
29    nuhusker7    11
30    1sdpad2    12
31    bigred4    12
32    pmd9    12
33    Busch Light    13
34    LNKtrnsplnt    13
35    huskerbaseball13    14
36    Crush78    15
37    NebrasketballJake    15
38    runsoastowin    15
39    TheNovice    15
40    huskercwg    16
41    Red Don    16
42    Husker4Life    17
43    khoock    17
44    75unlgrad    19
45    hhcdimes    19
46    swoof    19
47    aphilso1    20
48    WestOHusker    20
49    basketballjones    21
50    Jurgey    21
51    Nebrasketball1979    21
52    Silverbacked1    21
53    SittinOnThatDallasMaverick    21
54    oly_10    23
55    emwilliams    25
56    NeeandMe    25
57    BDL415    26
58    Buglem    27
59    mrjam    29
60    throwback    30
61    ConkintheCorner    31
62    hal9000    34
63    big red22    48

[HuskerFever]

Game #29 at Illinois Results (66-72 L)

 

Picked NU: 62 (94%)
Average NU Score: 72.5
Average Opp Score: 65.6
Average HHCC Score: 36.0
Median HHCC Score: 34.5
Mode HHCC Score: 27

 

1    huskerbaseball13    -18
2    Bugeaters1    10
3    ConkintheCorner    10
4    1sdpad2    20
5    aphilso1    22
6    basketballjones    27
7    BjoeHusker    27
8    Blindcheck    27
9    Busch Light    27
10    Crush78    27
11    Dead Dog Alley    27
12    demone    27
13    hal9000    27
14    hguy44    27
15    Husker4Life    27
16    MitchMcGaryMunchies    27
17    Silverbacked1    27
18    Cazzie22    28
19    swoof    30
20    ZAYWHAT!    30
21    KenPom    31
22    4NUfans    33
23    BDL415    33
24    brfrad    33
25    HB    33
26    LNKtrnsplnt    33
27    mrjam    33
28    Neon Budreau    33
29    nuhusker7    33
30    colhusker    34
31    HuskerFever    34
32    NUtball    34
33    UnicamMan    34
34    bigred4    35
35    emwilliams    35
36    REDZONEDAN    36
37    trickey    36
38    jayschool    37
39    khoock    37
40    huskercwg    38
41    oly_10    38
42    big red22    41
43    HuskerPower #nato73    41
44    jdostal    41
45    twinswingohuskers    41
46    Vinny    41
47    hhcdimes    42
48    throwback    42
49    jimmykc    44
50    NeeandMe    44
51    Noah121    44
52    Swan88    44
53    TheNovice    44
54    AuroranHusker    47
55    Nebrasketball1979    47
56    NebrasketballJake    47
57    Red Don    47
58    Buglem    50
59    Handy Johnson    50
60    hskr4life    50
61    pmd9    50
62    runsoastowin    50
63    Wolv77    53
64    cjbowbros    56
65    WestOHusker    59
66    Chuck Taylor    80

[Bugeaters1]

7 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

Game #29 at Illinois Results (66-72 L)

 

Picked NU: 62 (94%)
Average NU Score: 72.5
Average Opp Score: 65.6
Average HHCC Score: 36.0
Median HHCC Score: 34.5
Mode HHCC Score: 27

 

1    huskerbaseball13    -18
2    Bugeaters1    10
3    ConkintheCorner    10
4    1sdpad2    20
5    aphilso1    22
6    basketballjones    27
7    BjoeHusker    27
8    Blindcheck    27
9    Busch Light    27
10    Crush78    27
11    Dead Dog Alley    27
12    demone    27
13    hal9000    27
14    hguy44    27
15    Husker4Life    27
16    MitchMcGaryMunchies    27
17    Silverbacked1    27
18    Cazzie22    28
19    swoof    30
20    ZAYWHAT!    30
21    KenPom    31
22    4NUfans    33
23    BDL415    33
24    brfrad    33
25    HB    33
26    LNKtrnsplnt    33
27    mrjam    33
28    Neon Budreau    33
29    nuhusker7    33
30    colhusker    34
31    HuskerFever    34
32    NUtball    34
33    UnicamMan    34
34    bigred4    35
35    emwilliams    35
36    REDZONEDAN    36
37    trickey    36
38    jayschool    37
39    khoock    37
40    huskercwg    38
41    oly_10    38
42    big red22    41
43    HuskerPower #nato73    41
44    jdostal    41
45    twinswingohuskers    41
46    Vinny    41
47    hhcdimes    42
48    throwback    42
49    jimmykc    44
50    NeeandMe    44
51    Noah121    44
52    Swan88    44
53    TheNovice    44
54    AuroranHusker    47
55    Nebrasketball1979    47
56    NebrasketballJake    47
57    Red Don    47
58    Buglem    50
59    Handy Johnson    50
60    hskr4life    50
61    pmd9    50
62    runsoastowin    50
63    Wolv77    53
64    cjbowbros    56
65    WestOHusker    59
66    Chuck Taylor    80

So how does Huskerbaseball have a -18, when there where only to people pick Illinois/ am I missing something?

[AuroranHusker]

1 minute ago, Bugeaters1 said:

So how does Huskerbaseball have a -18, when there where only to people pick Illinois/ am I missing something?

 

The closest to the correct prediction always gets a -25 "bonus" for their total.

 

I had the same inquiry a while back...

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by AuroranHusker

[Bugeaters1]

But I had Illinois winning and actually had 72 on them.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Bugeaters1

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, Bugeaters1 said:

But I had Illinois winning and actually had 72 on them.

 

I don't know, ask @HuskerFever

[Chuck Taylor]

3 minutes ago, Bugeaters1 said:

So how does Huskerbaseball have a -18, when there where only to people pick Illinois/ am I missing something?

 

Similarly, how am I so mediocre when I'm obviously so brilliant? 

[AuroranHusker]

Just now, Chuck Taylor said:

 

Similarly, how am I so mediocre when I'm obviously so brilliant? 

 

Same.

 

[HuskerFever]

38 minutes ago, Bugeaters1 said:

So how does Huskerbaseball have a -18, when there where only to people pick Illinois/ am I missing something?

 

36 minutes ago, Bugeaters1 said:

But I had Illinois winning and actually had 72 on them.

 

So here what it looks like:

 

There were four people who picked Illinois: Bugeaters1, ConkintheCorner, huskerbaseball13, and 1sdpad2 (horray! ... ? )

 

The three major scoring drivers are: (1) margin of victory, (2) actual score differential, and (3) predicting the correct winner. Those drivers are as follows:

 

NU/Illinois Result: 66-72

MoV = |Actual Margin - Predicted Margin| * 2; Bonus for exact margin: -5

Actual = [Actual Marin| + |Predicted Margin|; Bonus for exact score: up to -10

Winner: Correct = 0, Incorrect = +20; Bonus for lowest score: -25

 

huskerbaseball13 (70-72): 8+(4+(-5))+0 = 7+(-25) = -18

Bugeaters1 (71-72): 10+(5+(-5))+0 = 10

ConkintheCorner (64-68): 4+6+0 = 10

1sdpad2 (59-71): 12+8+0 = 20

[Bugeaters1]

Okay I only seen two, No problem then.

[Bugeaters1]

By the way thanks for the time it takes to do this.

[HolyBobpilgrimage]

Well, fuck. Thanks a lot you little orange basterds (illinois). I absolutely nailed the first game, then you guys torched my score to the tune of +53. ??

[jimmykc]

If it makes you guys feel any better, I never have been able to understand how the totals are figured out. But then I have a very dumb (special) E-Bay. Thanks for doing this HuskerFever. Your check will be in the mail. Unless my E-Bay forgets to send it.

[aphilso1]

5 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

 

So here what it looks like:

 

There were four people who picked Illinois: Bugeaters1, ConkintheCorner, huskerbaseball13, and 1sdpad2 (horray! ... ? )

 

The three major scoring drivers are: (1) margin of victory, (2) actual score differential, and (3) predicting the correct winner. Those drivers are as follows:

 

NU/Illinois Result: 66-72

MoV = |Actual Margin - Predicted Margin| * 2; Bonus for exact margin: -5

Actual = [Actual Marin| + |Predicted Margin|; Bonus for exact score: up to -10

Winner: Correct = 0, Incorrect = +20; Bonus for lowest score: -25

 

huskerbaseball13 (70-72): 8+(4+(-5))+0 = 7+(-25) = -18

Bugeaters1 (71-72): 10+(5+(-5))+0 = 10

ConkintheCorner (64-68): 4+6+0 = 10

1sdpad2 (59-71): 12+8+0 = 20

 

Question with regard to MoV: how is it calculated if someone predicts the exact margin of victory, but the wrong winner?  For example, if someone predicted Nebraska to beat Illinois by 6, would the MoV portion of that person's score be 12 (6*2) or -5 ((0*2)-5)?

[HuskerFever]

10 minutes ago, aphilso1 said:

 

Question with regard to MoV: how is it calculated if someone predicts the exact margin of victory, but the wrong winner?  For example, if someone predicted Nebraska to beat Illinois by 6, would the MoV portion of that person's score be 12 (6*2) or -5 ((0*2)-5)?

 

Good question. So this is straight up "do you think this is going to be a close game or a blowout" driver. The other two drivers account for the incorrect winner.

 

So in your example, it would be -5+25+(variance of actual and predicted scores)

[aphilso1]

7 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Good question. So this is straight up "do you think this is going to be a close game or a blowout" driver. The other two drivers account for the incorrect winner.

 

So in your example, it would be -5+25+(variance of actual and predicted scores)

 

Gotcha.  I wonder if it'd make sense to adjust that specific portion of the formula next year.  I know there have been times this season when I was surprised by how low of a score I had, even though I didn't even predict the correct winner (like this week's Illinois game, for example).  While I appreciate scoring well, ultimately I felt I should have been punished more for not predicting the winner.  And going back to the "correct MoV but wrong winner" type of pick, I would actually view that as missing the MoV by 12 points rather than 0.  Because ultimately if you predict NU to win by 6, then NU losing by 6 or winning by 18 are equally far off from your prediction.  

 

You do excellent work every year Fever, so please don't take this as a slam on your efforts or math.  Just a way that I think the formula could be tweaked to more accurately penalize poor predictions.  Something to ponder in the off-season, maybe.

[hhcmatt]

11 hours ago, aphilso1 said:

Because ultimately if you predict NU to win by 6, then NU losing by 6 or winning by 18 are equally far off from your prediction.  

 

You get dinged for picking the wrong winner though so to me this is exactly how MoV should work.

[aphilso1]

4 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

You get dinged for picking the wrong winner though so to me this is exactly how MoV should work.

 

True, I just don't think it's enough of a ding relative to how MoV is scored.  Take a look at my two predictions this week:

 

NU 77 - Maryland 67 (70-66 actual): 20 points

NU 78 - Illinois 72 (66-72 actual): 22 points

 

Personally I look at those two results, and just at a quick glance would assume the Maryland game prediction would be a much better score than the Illinois prediction.  In the Maryland game I was reasonably close on NU's score, almost exact on the Terps', reasonably close on MoV, and predicted the winner.  That's a solid prediction.  But for the Illinois game I was terrible on NU's score, terrible on MoV (off by 12, since I predicted a 6 point win and instead it was a 6 point loss), nailed IU's, and got the overall outcome of the game wrong.  That's an awful prediction, but the score is still solid. 

 

And that's why either MoV should be calculated differently, or there should be a much more significant penalty for predicting the wrong winner.  Something closer to a 50 point ding instead of only a 20 would remedy it if the MoV formula stays calculated in absolute value terms.