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Starting To Get Anxiety...


hhcdave

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1 hour ago, Handy Johnson said:

I don't have a list right in front of me, but I would venture to guess the teams that finished 4th in the B1G and DIDN'T make the Dance is short if not non-existent.

 

We've already discussed in multiple threads the fact that the committee doesn't care one iota about your conference finish. Yes, usually the 4th Big Ten team gets in because their entire body of work is worthy of a bid. This year is different. Our entire body of work (RPI, quality wins) may very well not be good enough with only 22 wins. Any expert that's commented on the situation agrees.

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5 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

We've already discussed in multiple threads the fact that the committee doesn't care one iota about your conference finish. Yes, usually the 4th Big Ten team gets in because their entire body of work is worthy of a bid. This year is different. Our entire body of work (RPI, quality wins) may very well not be good enough with only 22 wins. Any expert that's commented on the situation agrees.

 

The one thing that is on that scorecard is your SOS ranking in conference play. And we're currently listed at #7.

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53 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

We've already discussed in multiple threads the fact that the committee doesn't care one iota about your conference finish. Yes, usually the 4th Big Ten team gets in because their entire body of work is worthy of a bid. This year is different. Our entire body of work (RPI, quality wins) may very well not be good enough with only 22 wins. Any expert that's commented on the situation agrees.

I'm not an "expert", but I'd bet dollars to donuts that top 4 gets us in...

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1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

We've already discussed in multiple threads the fact that the committee doesn't care one iota about your conference finish. Yes, usually the 4th Big Ten team gets in because their entire body of work is worthy of a bid. This year is different. Our entire body of work (RPI, quality wins) may very well not be good enough with only 22 wins. Any expert that's commented on the situation agrees.

 

And again, if you think people on the committee will not bring up the fact that we were 4th in the BIG10 you are crazy. Stats are not the only thing discussed no matter how many times you say they are the only factor. I promise you the guy from Northwestern will bring up the fact that the BIG although down in RPI is still a grind 1-14 and Neb finished 4th. It is part of the discussion.

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7 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

And again, if you think people on the committee will not bring up the fact that we were 4th in the BIG10 you are crazy. Stats are not the only thing discussed no matter how many times you say they are the only factor. I promise you the guy from Northwestern will bring up the fact that the BIG although down in RPI is still a grind 1-14 and Neb finished 4th. It is part of the discussion.

 

When did I say stats are the only factor? I've said multiple times that I know they are not. I've also said that the eye test absolutely matters and should benefit us down the stretch. But historically it doesn't overcome a 60+ RPI.

 

All I've been saying that you disagree with is that finishing 4th doesn't matter (which, by the way, is a stat). We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Wait until after the selection show when the committee members discuss snubs and I bet you'll hear them say at some point, "We don't pay attention to conference standings, we care about the entire body of work." If they did, why did a 1st place Washington miss the tournament in 2012?

Edited by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty
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8 minutes ago, Handy Johnson said:

I'm not an "expert", but I'd bet dollars to donuts that top 4 gets us in...

 

And I'll bet you more it won't. I don't know how many more facts this board has to present to people that think the Big Ten name will just carry us in this year. This conference is awful minus two heavy hitters and one Ohio State team that is exceeding expectations.

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1 hour ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

When did I say stats are the only factor? I've said multiple times that I know they are not. I've also said that the eye test absolutely matters and should benefit us down the stretch. But historically it doesn't overcome a 60+ RPI.

 

All I've been saying that you disagree with is that finishing 4th doesn't matter (which, by the way, is a stat). We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Wait until after the selection show when the committee members discuss snubs and I bet you'll hear them say at some point, "We don't pay attention to conference standings, we care about the entire body of work." If they did, why did a 1st place Washington miss the tournament in 2012?

 

You say you say that but all you reference is RPI, quads etc. If you believe they use eye tests and discuss each team do you really believe the NW guy will not bring up our conference performance? In Washington's case I would bet anything that is was argued by some people that they finished 1st in that league but it was still not enough to get them in. Same could happen to us but it will be brought up and discussed without a doubt.

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One thing we all need to remember... and it just hit me... is that we need to enjoy this ride as well.  I love the debates, love discussing this bubble team and that bubble team, and love to discuss where the Huskers will end up.  But please take a minute to enjoy the ride as well.

 

Its like getting to go to Florida and the last day there you get to go to Magic Kingdom.  If you spend all of your time and energy just looking forward to that MK trip, you’ll miss the rest of the vacation.  Now there’s a chance that MK is closed for some reason on that last day and you have to go to Universal Studios instead.  So try to enjoy the whole vacation as well as looking forward to the best day.

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10 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

You say you say that but all you reference is RPI, quads etc. If you believe they use eye tests and discuss each team do you really believe the NW guy will not bring up our conference performance? In Washington's case I would bet anything that is was argued by some people that they finished 1st in that league but it was still not enough to get them in. Same could happen to us but it will be brought up and discussed without a doubt.

 

When I'm bringing up my concerns about qualifying, I bring up the two points that hurt us. That would be RPI and quality wins. And for every point the NW guy brings up in our favor, someone else will bring up points in favor of their conference.

 

All I'm saying is that 22 wins, 4th place in the conference, an RPI outside the top 50, and one solid win at home is not going to guarantee us a spot. My opinion is that it won't be enough, but I do think that the committee could like what they see from our team and end up taking us. And if we have 21 or fewer wins I will say there is no chance we get in. Go ahead and save this message if you'd like, I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

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5 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

One thing we all need to remember... and it just hit me... is that we need to enjoy this ride as well.  I love the debates, love discussing this bubble team and that bubble team, and love to discuss where the Huskers will end up.  But please take a minute to enjoy the ride as well.

 

Its like getting to go to Florida and the last day there you get to go to Magic Kingdom.  If you spend all of your time and energy just looking forward to that MK trip, you’ll miss the rest of the vacation.  Now there’s a chance that MK is closed for some reason on that last day and you have to go to Universal Studios instead.  So try to enjoy the whole vacation as well as looking forward to the best day.

 

Haha I totally get what you're saying. I'm sure it looks like I'm just hating all of this with my skepticism and all. I'm enjoying every minute of it, though. I went to the Wisconsin game on Monday and had a blast. It's just easy to start arguing about semantics when there's a week off from games.

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On 2/1/2018 at 12:15 AM, hhcdave said:

About making the Dance.

 

Normally, I'd say "we control our own destiny" with 8-4 and 6 games left including the conference tournament.

 

However, I'm starting to think we DON'T control our own destiny because of jack asses like Joe Lunardi and Bracket Geeks.

 

They're SO OBSESSED with the B1G being down, and us not playing two games against the Top 3, that they're almost saying even winning out won't do it unless we also win 1-2 in the B1G Tournament. How much bullshit is that?

 

You're telling me 14-4 in the Big 10, with 23 wins, and an RPI inside 50, isn't going to get us in?

 

I apologize to the posted ten days ago who I called out for saying "we have to run the table to get in." I'm starting to sadly think they're correct. And even that might not do it.

 

Please tell me to calm down and help me ease my anxiety. There are much more important things in the world but I'm legitimately uptight, anxious and angry about this. Are we REALLY going to get left out if we go 14-4 but lose to Michigan/Maryland/Indiana in the B1G Tournament?

Furthermore, if we lose one more game (let's say maryland) but then beat Michigan before losing the next game, does that get us in?

 

Pretty ridicolous.

This from the same moron network (ESPN) that uses the "eye test" to push certain teams into the CFB playoff. This Nebraska team passes the eye test and the B12 champion needed a prayer to win in Lincoln. They also seem to forget how great Minnesota was when the huskers kicked their ass. Or that they played the top 3 B10 teams all on the road and destroyed Michigan at home. They also forgot that Nebraska beat the Bubble lover team Boston college also

Edited by DOATHLON
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7 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

When did I say stats are the only factor? I've said multiple times that I know they are not. I've also said that the eye test absolutely matters and should benefit us down the stretch. But historically it doesn't overcome a 60+ RPI.

 

All I've been saying that you disagree with is that finishing 4th doesn't matter (which, by the way, is a stat). We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Wait until after the selection show when the committee members discuss snubs and I bet you'll hear them say at some point, "We don't pay attention to conference standings, we care about the entire body of work." If they did, why did a 1st place Washington miss the tournament in 2012?

 

Why did Washington not make it in 2012?

 

Against the NCAA tournament field they went 0-6.  Losses to Duke, Marquette, St. Louis, South Dakota State, California, and Colorado.

 

They went 7-5 in nonconference.  Their best wins were against UCSB and Northridge.

 

The Pac 12 was very weak that year.  Here's the final KenPom rankings (Cal was a 12 seed in the tournament, Colorado was an 11, nobody else made it, Washington was 21-10 prior to the NIT, Stanford was 21-11, Oregon was 22-9, Arizona was 23-11.)

 

29 California 12 24-10
40 Stanford  26-11
51 Arizona  23-12
56 Washington  24-11
58 UCLA  19-14
59 Oregon  24-10
81 Colorado 11 24-12
87 Oregon St.  21-15
99 Washington St.  19-18
220 USC  6-26
230 Arizona St.  10-21
302 Utah 

6-25

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8 hours ago, OmahaHusker said:

This conference is awful minus two heavy hitters and one Ohio State team that is exceeding expectations.

And which basketball god declared such a thing?  

That’s a subjective opinion that’s been unverifiable for at least a month by now.  And no team—or conference—is the same now as it was a month ago.  Just look, for example, at our friends down by the river: in the last six games they have three double-digit losses (22 points, 14 points, and 20 points respectively).  Or what about our Minnesota friends: going from a #14 ranking at full strength when we played them to their present diminished condition.  And we still have the month of February before tournament time arrives: no team—or conference—will be the same then, as now, either.

Edited by Swan88
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the committee doesn't turn in its eyeballs before retiring for deliberations. and the closer you are to the bubble, the closer those eyeballs look. I think we'll do well in a closer inspection if push comes to shove. The obsession with tier 1 (a concept which you should enjoy this season, because it'll be gone next) is understandable, but these are people who take pains t make sure they get it as right as they can. 

 

I think NU looks good right now on close inspection. Strong finishes also matter a great deal--they've always been on record as saying that is one of their biggest tie breakers (what's the mo?). All these things will add up IF we do what we can. 

 

I'm not worried about this team making the Dance provided they do their job and win the games they're supposed to. If they do that, they're going to go. 

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has any team that finished 4th in the B1G ever missed the ncaa tourney?
 
and has a 22 win B1G team ever missed the tourney? i know iowa didn't make it with 21 wins. not sure about 22.
Why do people focus on number of wins irregardless of how up or down the conference is or strength of schedule.

RPI might give you a better idea.
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no 22 win power 5 team has been left out since the addition of the play in games. i would feel pretty good about our chances if we get to 22 wins.

 

syracuse was left out with 22 wins in 2007 and va tech was left out with 23 wins in 2010, but both of those occurred before they expanded to 68 teams.

Edited by TimSmiles
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