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Selection Committee Games of Interest


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6 minutes ago, big red22 said:

I honestly feel in the end as much as they say conference record doesn't matter.  A 13-5 Big 10 took care of their business, when a 8-10 team did not. 

 

That is where the committee steps in, and I just don't think that can go overlooked IMO

 

I hope so.  I would be interested to know in the past 20 years how many 11-7 teams from Power 5 conferences were left out of an at large for a team with a conference record under .500.

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5 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

I hope so.  I would be interested to know in the past 20 years how many 11-7 teams from Power 5 conferences were left out of an at large for a team with a conference record under .500.

I would look that up for you, but my last post already took up a lot of my time.  Just remember 13-5 is a lot different than 11-7.  I would say the percentage is under 15%, but that is just a guess.

 

You do the same for a 13-5 team Power team it goes down to .001% with the 2012 PAC 12 conference having the only two in history.

Edited by big red22
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1 hour ago, hskr4life said:

 

I hope so.  I would be interested to know in the past 20 years how many 11-7 teams from Power 5 conferences were left out of an at large for a team with a conference record under .500.

It's not 20 years because I do have to get some stuff done today at some point, but I looked up the top 16 NIT seeds for the past five seasons from Power 5 and what I kind of thought of as "Mid-Major Plus" conferences (American, Big East, A10 and Mountain West, only because they each had some success for a while during those years).

 

Those with 11-7 conference records or better who did not receive an NCAA tournament invite and went to the NIT include:

16-2: 1 (2016 San Diego State, Mountain West, lost in conference tournament championship)

14-4: 2 (2016 St. Bonaventure, A10; 2015 Tulsa, American)

13-5: 4 (2015 Rhode Island, A10; 2015 Temple, American; 2015 and 2017 Colorado State, Mountain West)

12-6: 6 (2015 Richmond, A10; 2017 Houston and 2014 SMU, American; 2014 Georgia, 2013 Kentucky, and 2013 Alabama, SEC) -- 2014 Georgia was left out of the NCAA, but 11-7 Tennessee was included

11-7: 8 (2016 George Washington, A10; 2013 Virginia, ACC; 2017 UCF, American; 2016 Ohio State, Big Ten; 2017 Utah, Pac 12; 2016 South Carolina, 2015 Texas A&M, and 2013 Tennessee, SEC)

Note that there were no teams with 10 or more wins AND less than 8 losses. There was one 9-7 team (2013 UMass, A10) but I didn't include them because their winning percentage is right around a 10-8 team and that wasn't the question.

 

During that time frame, here are the .500 or worse teams from those conferences who were included over 11-7 or better conference records:

2017: 9-9 Wake Forest (ACC), 9-9 Xavier (Big East), 9-9 Oklahoma State and 8-10 Kansas State (Big 12)

In over 11-7 Utah (Pac 12), 11-7 UCF (American), and 13-5 Colorado State (Mountain West)

2016: 9-9 Pittsburgh, 9-9 Syracuse (ACC), 9-9 Texas Tech (Big 12), 9-9 USC (Pac 12), 9-9 Oregon State (Pac 12)

In over 16-2 San Diego State (Mountain West), 14-4 St. Bonaventure (A10), 11-7 George Washington (A10), 11-7 Ohio State (Big Ten - had 7 teams 12-6 or better)

2015: 9-9 Indiana (Big Ten), 9-9 Xavier (Big East), 8-10 Oklahoma State (Big 12), 8-10 Texas (Big 12)

In over 13-5 Rhode Island (A10), 13-5 Temple (American), 13-5 Colorado State (Mountain West), 12-6 Richmond (A10), 11-7 Texas A&M (SEC)

2014: 9-9 Baylor (Big 12), 9-9 Iowa (Big Ten), 9-9 NC State (ACC), 8-10 Oklahoma State (Big 12 - included over 9-9 West Virginia in same conference)

In over 12-6 SMU (American), 12-6 Georgia (SEC)

2013: 9-9 Cincinnati (Big East), 8-10 Illinois (Big Ten), 8-10 Minnesota (Big Ten - included over 9-9 Iowa in same conference), 

In over 12-6 Kentucky (SEC), 12-6 Alabama (SEC), 11-7 Virginia (ACC), 11-7 Tennessee (SEC)

 

So long answer, but in the last 5 years, unless I missed one or two NIT teams, there have been 6 teams from a Power 5 team with a sub-.500 conference record included over 18 Power 5/mid-major+ team with an 11-7 or better conference record.

 

Subtracting the A10, American, Big East, and Mountain West, that comes down to 6 teams from a Power 5 with a sub-.500 record over 8 Power 5 teams with an 11-7 or better conference record.

 

One thing throwing this off a little, too: I know we hate the RPI around here right now, but the 2013 SEC was the 9th-rated RPI conference (per Warren Nolan), behind the rest of the Power 5, Big East, A10, and Missouri Valley. Three of the 11-7 or better Power 5 teams excluded came from the 2013 SEC. According to his percentage ratings, this year's Big Ten would fit #6 that year, well above that conference, so take this with a little grain of salt.

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3 hours ago, noahjb24 said:

Love how Oklahoma had two good wins in November then traded wins with a few of the very down top big 12 teams and now theyre a lock because of how much they overrate this conference. These teams just beat up on each other and get credit for good wins. Oklahoma right now makes me physically ill.

 

The problem is the Big 12 had such a successful early season non conference showing that it's carried over into the conference season and the teams with strong early season performances are losing to their lower tiered teams and instead of the highly rated teams dropping they're bringing the lower tiered teams up.

 

Not saying it's right, but the Big 12 will get some teams in with a losing conference record and it's all because of how they performed in the non conf schedule.  Take a look at some of the wins they had in the non conference schedule:

 

KU - Kentucky and Syracuse - both teams that aren't great but have big names that help with perception.

Texas Tech - beat BC, Northwestern (when they were rated and thought of highly), and Nevada.

WVU - Beat Virginia and Mizzou.  Also have a nearly 40 pt win over UCF (who beat us).

Baylor - wins over Wisconsin and Creighton.  Two well known programs.

TCU - beat Nevada (who's ranked) and St. Bonaventure (who's a bubble team)

OU - won @ Wichita St (big), USC, Oregon, and Northwestern 

Oklahoma St: won @ Florida St

Iowa St - Beat Iowa who was supposed to be a lot better than they turned out to be.

 

You could argue that a lot of these wins they racked up early were against teams who have big names but turned out to not be nearly as good as they normally are but it's still a pretty impressive run.  It was interesting that they struggled in the BigXII - SEC challenge.  I thought that showed the league isn't quite as good as it was thought to be early on.

 

We have to hope the Big 12 only gets 6 or 7 in.  There's still a chance they could get 8, but it will all depend on how the games down the stretch turn out.  It's a conference where almost anyone could win the conference tourney so we don't want one of lower seeded teams making a deep run. 

 

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12 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

I see what you are saying. Those wins against BC, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa really helped the Big 12 resumes. Wish we had been able to play....Oh, wait ...

I know right!?!  I feel like a lot of those are just conference builders used to measure up the conferences and at the time NW, Wisc, and Iowa were thought of as top tier Big 10 teams and we all know how that ended up.  If you look at the wins, a lot of them sound a lot better (name recognition wise) then they probably turned out to be.

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Edited for RPI, time, how to watch, line, and who I feel we need

 

Georgia 66/South Carolina  78- 5:30   SEC Network   S. Carolina -3    Need S. Carolina
Seton Hall  24/Providence 35 - 5:30 Not sure how to watch.   Providence - 1 1/2  I think we want seton Hall 
Texas Tech 14/Oklahoma State 109 - 6pm ESPNU TT -4 Need TT
North Carolina 5/Syracuse 39- 6pm ESPN N. Carolina -4 Need North Carolina
Clemson 9/Virginia Tech  54- 6pm ESPN Full Court/ESPN3 Va Tech -4  Need Clemson
Michigan 29/Penn State 76 - 6pm BTN Penn St. -4   I am going back and forth but currently lean Michigan.  One part of me doesn't want to play Michigan in the 4-5 game as they are so well coached.  Michigan would be favored similarly to Penn St over us in that game.  Within a point for sure.  I think the tie breaker here is the ludicrous Q1 perception.  If going to be playing equal type of team in 4-5 game it may as well be the one we are going to me more rewarded for beating in the metrics.  And the fact we would be playing them both twice, that part is a wash.   One possible underrated aspect of a Michigan win, is that Penn St. at large hopes would be really crushed.  It might make the game Sunday just a bit easier.  If we go 13-5 in the league and get a double bye, I don't see how they can leave us out.  That would be absurd.  So a potentially easier game to get that 13-5 is best.  Not saying it will necessarily be easier, but there is absolutely no way it would be harder, and could be MUCH easier if Penn St comes in knowing a tourney run is only realistic chance.  Add in the fact Penn St. is one of the teams we are competing with for a bid, and I think it is go Michigan!!  After typing this out, I am more confident that is the correct answer. 

 

SMU 95/East Carolina 274 - 6pm ESPN News SMU -8  Pry don't matter but East Carolina best obviously
Duquesne 238/St. Bonaventure 26-  6pm facebook live  St. Bonaventure - 9 1/2  Need Duquesne
Binghamton 325/Vermont53 - 6pm ESPN3 No line Need Binghamton
TCU 21/Iowa State  101- 7pm Cyclones.tv  TCU - 5 1/2  Need Iowa St. 
Loyola-Chicago 41/Southern Illinois 80 - 7pm ESPN3  Loyola -2 Need S. Illinois
Alabama 31/Auburn  7-  7:30 SEC Network  Auburn -8  Need Auburn
St. John's 70/Marquette 60 - 7:30 available on FSN in some regions so maybe on direct tv channel?  Not on Fox sports go for me.  Not sure this is viewable for some of us.    Marquette - 4 1/2  Need St. Johns
Louisville 51/Duke 4 - 8pm ESPN Duke - 11 1/2  Need Duke
Florida 65/Tennessee 13 - 8pm ESPN2  Tennessee - 4 Need Tennessee
UCF 64/Tulsa  86- 8pm ESPN News Tulsa -2 Need UCF
Texas 59/Kansas State 52 - 8pm ESPNU  Kansas St -3  Slightly better off if Kansas St. wins it looks like
Boise State 50/Colorado State 218 - 8pm ESPN3  Boise St - 7 1/2  Need Colorado St. 
USC 42/Colorado 74 - 9:30 FS1  USC -3  Need Colorado

Edited by royalfan
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1 hour ago, royalfan said:

Edited for RPI, time, how to watch, line, and who I feel we needabcabcabcabc

I agree with all of these except I think I would lean Texas over Kansas State. I think there is a better chance that they both get in if Kansas State wins. I could see the argument for KSU though so probably doesn't matter too much.

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8 hours ago, royalfan said:

 

Updating throughout the night.

Edited by HuskerFever
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