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Selection Committee Games of Interest

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26 minutes ago, TimSmiles said:

so from what i can gather this is where we are at:

 

-win the next 4 and we are in.

 

-go 3-1, and we might need to win a B1G tourney game

 

-go 2-2, and we for sure need to win at least 1 B1G tourney game.

 

I think that's a pretty good way to look at it.

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8 hours ago, TimSmiles said:

so from what i can gather this is where we are at:

 

-win the next 4 and we are in.

 

-go 3-1, and we might need to win a B1G tourney game

 

-go 2-2, and we for sure need to win at least 1 B1G tourney game.

I know there are disagreements on here but I definitely think this is too optimistic of a view.

 

- Win the next 4, but lose in the 4/5 game, and we are 50/50 in the tournament... right on the cut line. Win that 4/5 game and we're safely in.

 

- Go 3-1, and we definitely need to win that 4/5 game because our RPI will be in the 50s and we will likely have 0 tier 1 wins.

 

- Go 2-2, probably need to get to the finals.

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10 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Both teams have three more ranked teams to play. This is one of those situations where a win by Baylor tonight and a fallout by both teams at the end will knock both of them out.

 

Easily one of those scenarios where it would've been much more clear who to root for in hindsight.

 

When it comes to those toss-up games between two near-bubble teams, I root for the home team. Road wins are so important.

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44 minutes ago, jdostal said:

 

When it comes to those toss-up games between two near-bubble teams, I root for the home team. Road wins are so important.

 

I was actually thinking the opposite.  Home losses to another bubble team can really hurt a teams chances.

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1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

I know there are disagreements on here but I definitely think this is too optimistic of a view.

 

- Win the next 4, but lose in the 4/5 game, and we are 50/50 in the tournament... right on the cut line. Win that 4/5 game and we're safely in.

 

- Go 3-1, and we definitely need to win that 4/5 game because our RPI will be in the 50s and we will likely have 0 tier 1 wins.

 

- Go 2-2, probably need to get to the finals.

I disagree with your 1st bullet point.  Here is why...

 

You need to take into account conference record once it gets past 12 wins.  There in no way in hell they keep out a 14-4 Big 10 team.  I understand that conference record is not something the committee holds in a high standard.  When looking at the 20 or so teams on the bubble that 14-4 is going to stick out like a soar thumb!  50/50 no way is that the odds at that point.  Odds are more like 95/5... 50/50 is if we go 3-1

 

I keep laughing at all these comparisons to 2012 Washington, and 2012 Arizona and 2013 Georgia. 

 

Washington - 14-4 in a PAC-12 conference that had two teams make it to the tournament that year (California and Colorado).  The highest RPI in the PAC 12 conference that year was California at 45.  Their out of conference record was 7-5 that year and final regular season win total was 21-9.  Their RPI was 54.  The proceeded to lose in the first round to a 20-15 Oregon State team that finished the season 132nd in RPI.  Their highest RPI victory that year was against Oregon at 52.  Best win of the year was @Arizona at RPI 79.  They did finish the season losing back to back to RPI 123 and 132.  That is two tier 3 losses in a row with a 21-10 record

 

Comparison - This resume is the closest our current season that I have seen.  Washington seems to be everyone's go to excuse as to why us winning out the remainder of our games still doesn't get us in.  Well... here is the difference... If we finish the season at 14-4 we will be on a 9 game winning streak, and our tournament opponent will not be 132 in the RPI.  Our RPI will be in the high 30's low 40's going into the tournament.  Not to mention our record would be 23-8.  14-4 is an almost guarantee to get us into the tournament.  I will put my money where my mouth is too.  That is how confident in my theory here!

 

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By the way, don't look now but that UCF loss is headed in the direction of a quadrant 1 loss instead of a quadrant 2 loss.  They picked up a road win at Memphis on Sunday and have jumped into the top 60 in the NCAA rpi.  They could really do us a solid by beating Wichita State at home on March 1.  Not too solid, though.  Don't want them jumping over us.

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36 minutes ago, big red22 said:

You need to take into account conference record once it gets past 12 wins.

 

There is no conference record listed anywhere on the selection committee's team sheets. It doesn't mean it's not discussed, but it's worthy to note it's not something highlighted.

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3 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Without any Tier 1 wins, is this necessarily a good thing?

 

There's not much difference between being 0-6 in Tier 1 and 0-7.

 

There is a difference between being 4-1 in Tier 2 and being 4-2.  It would mean we'd only have 1 loss outside the top quadrant (assuming we win out.)

 

Besides, their success bumps our SOS.

Edited by Norm Peterson

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1 hour ago, jdostal said:

 

When it comes to those toss-up games between two near-bubble teams, I root for the home team. Road wins are so important.

Zero sum game so this isn't the right approach imo.  Should be rooting for the team that gives us best shot to replace someone in the long run. 

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9 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

There's not much difference between being 0-6 in Tier 1 and 0-7.

 

There is a difference between being 4-1 in Tier 2 and being 4-2.  It would mean we'd only have 1 loss outside the top quadrant (assuming we win out.)

 

Besides, their success bumps our SOS.

 

That's fair. I suppose 1-6 and 1-7 makes little difference either. So I'm on board with that.

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17 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Without any Tier 1 wins, is this necessarily a good thing?

It should be a good thing but after listening to Bruce I have little faith in the competence of these guys, so I share your concern.  

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3 hours ago, big red22 said:

I disagree with your 1st bullet point.  Here is why...

 

You need to take into account conference record once it gets past 12 wins.  There in no way in hell they keep out a 14-4 Big 10 team.  I understand that conference record is not something the committee holds in a high standard.  When looking at the 20 or so teams on the bubble that 14-4 is going to stick out like a soar thumb!  50/50 no way is that the odds at that point.  Odds are more like 95/5... 50/50 is if we go 3-1

 

I keep laughing at all these comparisons to 2012 Washington, and 2012 Arizona and 2013 Georgia. 

 

Washington - 14-4 in a PAC-12 conference that had two teams make it to the tournament that year (California and Colorado).  The highest RPI in the PAC 12 conference that year was California at 45.  Their out of conference record was 7-5 that year and final regular season win total was 21-9.  Their RPI was 54.  The proceeded to lose in the first round to a 20-15 Oregon State team that finished the season 132nd in RPI.  Their highest RPI victory that year was against Oregon at 52.  Best win of the year was @Arizona at RPI 79.  They did finish the season losing back to back to RPI 123 and 132.  That is two tier 3 losses in a row with a 21-10 record

 

Comparison - This resume is the closest our current season that I have seen.  Washington seems to be everyone's go to excuse as to why us winning out the remainder of our games still doesn't get us in.  Well... here is the difference... If we finish the season at 14-4 we will be on a 9 game winning streak, and our tournament opponent will not be 132 in the RPI.  Our RPI will be in the high 30's low 40's going into the tournament.  Not to mention our record would be 23-8.  14-4 is an almost guarantee to get us into the tournament.  I will put my money where my mouth is too.  That is how confident in my theory here!

 

 

The committee has stated that they don't care about conference records and that they never make a selection based on the idea that a conference deserves another selection. They let conference numbers play out naturally by choosing the teams with the most deserving resumes. They actually look more highly upon quality Non-Con wins because it proves that you can beat teams that you aren't familiar with... because you will be playing such teams in the tournament.

 

Even though the 2012 Pac-12 isn't a perfect comparison because they were obviously worse than this year's B1G, it's a great example to prove that even a major conference champion isn't going to get a boost from their conference placement, so why would a 4th place team? And if you want a more reasonable comparison, the last two conferences to finish 6th in Conference RPI ended up with four (2017 Pac-12) and three (2016 SEC) bids. So no, finishing 4th in conference does not guarantee us anything.

 

I agree with @HuskerActuary. If we finish 23-9 with an RPI in the high 40s (presumably) and zero Quad 1 wins, we'd be about 50/50. We would have ended the season hot, but a loss to Michigan would mitigate that impact. The committee could easily say we beat a lot of average to below-average teams during our win streak, but when it came time to play a tournament team, we lost.

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Too much math.  Too much precision.  Too much sophistication.

Committee members vote, and each member’s vote is based on his/her own priorities and values and biases.  There is no monolithic Committee position on anything, other than on the broadest of generalities.

Predicting is fun and creates discussion and interest.  But predictions are based on assumptions that are often faulty.

Here’s to enjoying the ride and to hoping that tonight’s result enhances, rather than detracts from, Nebrasketball’s chances.

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Okay, here is the the main reason for the thread.  Edited fever by deleting a couple that I Don't think matter, added some, added RPI, game time, how to watch, the line and who I feel is in our best interest to win.  

 

Georgetown 143/Butler 32- 5:30 CBS Sports network  Butler - 11 1/2  Need Georgetown
Boston College 85/Pittsburgh 178- 6pm ESPN News Boston College - 8 1/2 Need Boston College
Texas A&M  16/Missouri 23- 6pm ESPNU Missouri -1  I lean towards us needing AM 
Arkansas 35/Ole Miss 104 -  6pm SEC Network Arkansas - 2 1/2  Need Ole Miss here
St. Bonaventure 44/La Salle 186 - 6pm http://www.atlantic10.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?catid=0&id=1909811&db_oem_id=31600 should be free St Bonaventure -1 We need La Salle
 

Kent State 172/Buffalo 33 - 6pm ESPN3 Buffalo - 13 1/2 Need Kent St.
Virginia 1/Miami 24 - 8pm ESPN  Virginia -6 need Virginia
South Carolina 76 /Tennessee   13-8pm ESPNU  Tennessee -10 1/2 Need Tennessee 
LSU 77/Alabama 34-  8pm SEC Network Alabama -7 I think we want Alabama

 

Others

Kansas 9 at Iowa St 90  6 pm ESPN2  Kansas -7 Need Kansas

Oklahoma 21 at Texas Tech 12  6pm ESPN Texas tech -7 Need Texas Tech just in case OU keeps reeling and committee pulls head out of ass

Michigan St 14 at Minnesota 134  8pm ESPN2  Michigan St - 10 Need Minnesota played them twice and keeps Michigan St from one seed since we are 4

Northwestern 96 at Rutgers 208 8pm BTN Northwestern - 3 1/2  Not sure, on one hand played Rutgers twice.  On the other there is outside shot at Northwestern getting into Quadrant 1.  I am leaning Rutgers as it helps all 6 of our metrics more than a NW win.  

 

Edited by royalfan

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We can all guess what is going to happen but we don't and won't know what will happen in that committee room. Yeah there are guidelines that we can all go by but those are still a moving target. There are those that will be to say "I told you so" if we don't make it and those that will proclaim the same if we make it. In my best estimation there are probably 30 teams that are in while there are probably 20-25 teams fighting for what is left. Nebraska is one of those currently on the outside looking in but they have chance to play their way in. I will be ecstatic if they make it and surely disappointed if they don't. But it sure is fun to be in the conversation. 

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18 minutes ago, royalfan said:

St. Bonaventure 186/La Salle 44 - 6pm http://www.atlantic10.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?catid=0&id=1909811&db_oem_id=31600 should be free St Bonaventure -1 We need La Salle

 

I think you have the RPIs of St. Bonaventure and La Salle reversed.  Agree we want a win by La Salle, but St. Bonnie is the one ahead of us, not La Salle.

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