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Selection Committee Games of Interest

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25 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Hmm...wonder if the BTN guys will rationalize what looks like a great PSU win to Ohio St being tired?

 

I think a lot of it will be due to Josh Reaves finally being eligible for PSU again.  They're a lot better with him.

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I think there's a chance that some teams from lower level conferences currently ahead of us are going to drop as the season goes on simply from not having Power 5 programs on their schedule.

 

One that should drop like a rock is Buffalo.  Kenpom currently lists them as the #71 team in the land but NCAA's rpi has them at #27, which baffles me.

 

They've lost to the only good teams they've played and they've also lost to some so-so teams like SoDakSt and St. Bonaventure.

 

Their upcoming games include road trips to Ohio, Kent St, and Central Michigan as well as home tilts against Western Michigan and Akron.  I suspect if they lose any of their remaining games, they're going to drop like a bag of hammers. If they lose 2 or more of their last 11, they'd have to drop off the bubble, right?

 

Speaking of St. Bonaventure, they're #48 in the NCAA rpi, and they have a couple of good wins over Maryland and Syracuse, but they lost to Niagara, which is a Tier 4 loss for them, and I have a feeling they'll continue to drop even if they continue to win just because of who they have left to play.  I suspect as long as Rhode Island wins the Atlantic 10 auto bid, they'll be the only team from the A10 dancing and the Bonnies will drop behind us (provided we continue to win.)

 

So, while we might be #61 today, I certainly think there are some teams in front of us who will drop even if they continue to win and will drop precipitously if they happen to lose any of their remaining games.

 

We're still in the running, baby.

Edited by Norm Peterson

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It's very hard to complain because I know we are lacking good wins and our SOS is subpar...but, I just can't help shaking my head at seeing Notre Dame showing up as "in" in multiple brackets.  I guess it just goes to show you just have to take it one game at a time and that like usual, the bubble is very weak.  We are a missed KU shot or scheduling a Tenn Tech over Deleware State from being on the right side of the bubble. 

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20 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

It's very hard to complain because I know we are lacking good wins and our SOS is subpar...but, I just can't help shaking my head at seeing Notre Dame showing up as "in" in multiple brackets.  I guess it just goes to show you just have to take it one game at a time and that like usual, the bubble is very weak.  We are a missed KU shot or scheduling a Tenn Tech over Deleware State from being on the right side of the bubble. 

 

Are you just saying in general or are you comparing them to us? Notre Dame beat Wichita State and LSU on a neutral floor and won at Syracuse I don't think it's questionable that they're in right now.

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17 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

It's very hard to complain because I know we are lacking good wins and our SOS is subpar...but, I just can't help shaking my head at seeing Notre Dame showing up as "in" in multiple brackets.  I guess it just goes to show you just have to take it one game at a time and that like usual, the bubble is very weak.  We are a missed KU shot or scheduling a Tenn Tech over Deleware State from being on the right side of the bubble. 

I agree with this frustration. Here's a comparison of our records by tier.

 

Team              Tier 1       Tier 2       Tier 3       Tier 4

Nebraska       0-5            3-3           5-0            7-0

Notre Dame   2-4            2-0           3-3            5-0

 

This would seem to validate the thought that resumes are helped more by good wins than what they are hurt by bad losses.

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1 hour ago, OmahaHusker said:

 

Are you just saying in general or are you comparing them to us? Notre Dame beat Wichita State and LSU on a neutral floor and won at Syracuse I don't think it's questionable that they're in right now.

 

Not really comparing them to us per say but  considering they are in quite a few "last four in" we can assume they are atleast 10 teams ahead of us.  How? What you say above is true, Syracuse and WSU are good wins.  LSU? 88 in the RPI.  Obviously, not terrible but not a win that's going to wow anybody.  They are 12-7 overall with an RPI of 68.  Again, I'm struggling to see how they are getting so much love. 

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Purdue (10) vs. Michigan (38)-- Want them top 30!

Uconn (85) vs. SMU (53)

Middle Tennessee (23) vs. UTSA (268)

Ohio State (14) vs. Penn State (133)

Arizona (17) vs. Colorado (66)

Wichita State (29) vs. UCF (67)- This one is tough.  Me personally doesn't want a over 100 RPI loss.  I don't think they will  be bubbly at the end of the season.  Tough conference.

Arizona State (30) vs. Utah (62)

UCLA (64) vs. California (176)

Saint Mary's (36) vs. BYU (73)-- I would think that if it isn't Zaga and St. M, that it is just a 1 bid league...

Portland (232) vs. Gonzaga (57)

 

Just got this updated from last night.  Overall not a terrible night for us, but not a great night.  I am thinking Zaga and St. Marys will both get in, so that is probably the nail in BYU's coffin.  Stinks that Michigan was so close, but we still have a win over them and are now in the 4 slot in the Big 10.  That UCONN win was nice for us.  Penn State's win might now be as bad as we think.  That may end up a decent win at the end of the year when we beat them at PBA.  Colorado started out hot and is now ice cold.  That is good for us.  UCF is done I think.  With the loss of Fall, they will struggle and that is even probably a 3 bid league....  Utah getting a huge road win doesn't help us.  Also UCLA winning doesn't help us either.  Still a log ways to go, but that is your Jan 25th game update.

 

A few notes of games that weren't up there.

 

--North Texas beat FAU to improve to 4-4 in CUSA and 11-10 overall.  Be nice if they keep winning.

 

--LBSU is now 5-2 in the Big West.  They may challenge Hawaii for the title there.

 

Edited by hskr4life

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45 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

Not really comparing them to us per say but  considering they are in quite a few "last four in" we can assume they are atleast 10 teams ahead of us.  How? What you say above is true, Syracuse and WSU are good wins.  LSU? 88 in the RPI.  Obviously, not terrible but not a win that's going to wow anybody.  They are 12-7 overall with an RPI of 68.  Again, I'm struggling to see how they are getting so much love. 

 

Location of the games is one thing I was looking at...neutral and away wins are valued more than home victories...same with quality non con wins. That's why my mentality is even a win against UCF or St. John's would've helped us without even bringing up the Creighton or Kansas games. And LSU is no slouch...yes two bad losses to Steph F Austin and Vandy....but FIVE top 50 RPI wins...two of which were on the road.

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1 hour ago, hhctony said:

Will be a light night tonight, but....

 

Wisconsin (135) at Michigan State (28)-- I want Wisconsin to be a Tier 2 win both on the road and at home.  And if MSU loses enough... 3 seed maybe?

Buffalo (27, still proving you can manipulate the RPI) at Ohio (210).-- Buffalo?  Really?

 

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42 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Wait...how???

 

By playing in a middle of the road conference, playing about five or six really good teams in the non-conference and losing, and then winning a whole bunch of ROAD games in said conference. The Bulls have five road wins, none against a team with an RPI higher than 130. Lastly, avoid the bottom 100 of the NCAA. Their "worst" win is 265; we have four worse than that.

 

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4 hours ago, HuskerActuary said:

I agree with this frustration. Here's a comparison of our records by tier.

 

Team              Tier 1       Tier 2       Tier 3       Tier 4

Nebraska       0-5            3-3           5-0            7-0

Notre Dame   2-4            2-0           3-3            5-0

 

This would seem to validate the thought that resumes are helped more by good wins than what they are hurt by bad losses.

I can kind of see the point of quality wins over bad losses.  If they put you in the tournament, and you are on the bubble, you are going to be playing tier 1 or 2 teams.

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So many games today. Saturday's will be tough getting all of them on here so I think I'll skip RPI and just get them in here best I can. 

 

NC State at UNC 

Texas Tech at South Carolina

Baylor at Florida

Duquesne at URI (we basically want URI to be the only A10 team)

Ole Miss at Texas (hate to see the Horns get hot, but tough slate left)

Georgia at Kansas State 

Oklahoma at Alabama (root for Lon here, Bama stacking up decent home wins)

St. John's at Butler (will the Red Storm win a Big East game?)

Miami at Florida State (8-11 seed profiles from these two)

Rutgers at Penn State (I think we'd like that damn Penn State game in Lincoln to be a big one)

Syracuse at Pitt (Orange can't lose this one) RELATED: Kevin Stallings is terrible.

Tennessee at Iowa State (hmmmmmm)

TCU at Vanderbilt (hmmmmmm)

Texas A&M at Kansas (run them out of the gym, Bill)

Utah at Arizona (the Utes have won three straight and it'd be nice if that ended at any time)

Oklahoma State at Arkansas 

LSU at Auburn (no need for LSU to win this one)

Kentucky at West Virginia (ahh, the Devil will be in attendance with his two favorite coaches)

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (brought to you by Bubblicious)

Wake Forest at Louisville (can Louisville even be in the tournament? I forgot)

Colorado at Arizona State (Devils are human again)

Georgetown at Creighton (be nice to the Jays be a top-four Big East team since they are on our schedule)

Missouri at Mississippi State (bubbly)

Stanford at UCLA (Bruins could start losing any time)

 

All I got....

 

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Big day with the Big 12 SEC challenge.  Really good chances for bubbly wins.  Also  bubbly teams will lose.  Personally I would like a good showing by the Big 12.  They seem to be the most prestigious conference this year.  However I would love losses by Baylor, OK St, Texas.  Those three are near bubble popping.  KSU and Georgia is a tough one.  Personally with KSU’s recent wins, they are probably closer to lock that Georgia.

 

Penn State and Rutgers is a good one too. Penn State is more bubbly than we think right now.  There were in some first and next four outs yesterday.  Would be huge if we could put on a show for the committee against a bubbly team to end the season.  However Rutgers is a team that could give the Globetrotters fits.

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