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Selection Committee Games of Interest


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1 hour ago, HuskerActuary said:

 

I find myself busy on Saturdays and like to have a condensed list to refer to for the very most important games of the day. Here is that list. @HuskerFever, I really appreciate you doing all of the dirty work on this each day to give me a list to start from.


Couple other thoughts from me -

- Baylor/TCU - not tough at all, definitely need TCU like you chose

- Also agree with Va Tech over Louisville

- Disagree on Kansas St versus Oklahoma. Kansas St is still closer to the bubble and an OU win would overall help Nebraska's chances more. Don't think this is a high leverage game for us, though, so I removed it from this condensed list.

 

OU would be 16-12 with 7 straight losses.  They would be completely out if they lose to KSU

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21 minutes ago, big red22 said:

OU would be 16-12 with 7 straight losses.  They would be completely out if they lose to KSU

No, they wouldn't be 'completely out.' That's just the state of the Big 12 this year and the way that conference is being treated. Like I said though, either way that game goes, probably doesn't affect us much, there will be one winner and one loser.

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35 minutes ago, big red22 said:

OU would be 16-12 with 7 straight losses.  They would be completely out if they lose to KSU

 

SHOULD be completely out.  However, a lot of places (ESPN Bubble Watch) have OU as a lock.  They were a protected top 16 seed in the first reveal.  Most places are not taking OU out of the equation even if they lose to KSU.

 

However I agree that they should be out.  Probably should be more bubbly than they are right now even.

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1 hour ago, big red22 said:

OU would be 16-12 with 7 straight losses.  They would be completely out if they lose to KSU

 

I think there's a better chance both KSU and OU get in than there is that even one of them misses regardless of who wins this one.  Really think OU only needs two more wins and KSU would have to lose a a couple more too.  IMO this is one of those "only helps you" games for KState.  If you look at them in conf play all their losses have come against KU/Tech/WVU the top 3 teams.  No bad losses in what is perceived one of the toughest conferences in the nation.  

 

Texas and Baylor are the two Big12 teams we need to root against as they are probably the best bets to miss.  Also don't need Okie St going on a run.  If they were to beat KU again they'd have two wins over KU, one each over WVU (road), Tech, and Florida St.  With all those big wins they could go on a tourney run and get into bubble talk.

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43 minutes ago, tjp21 said:

 

I think there's a better chance both KSU and OU get in than there is that even one of them misses regardless of who wins this one.  Really think OU only needs two more wins and KSU would have to lose a a couple more too.  IMO this is one of those "only helps you" games for KState.  If you look at them in conf play all their losses have come against KU/Tech/WVU the top 3 teams.  No bad losses in what is perceived one of the toughest conferences in the nation.  

 

Texas and Baylor are the two Big12 teams we need to root against as they are probably the best bets to miss.  Also don't need Okie St going on a run.  If they were to beat KU again they'd have two wins over KU, one each over WVU (road), Tech, and Florida St.  With all those big wins they could go on a tourney run and get into bubble talk.

When do losses count against you then?  I keep hearing about we don't have any Quad 1 wins, but yet Oklahoma can lose 7 games in a row.  One of them being to Iowa State and still doesn't matter?  It just makes no sense to me that having 12 losses doesn't matter.  They should, because your damn team isn't winning ball games, and IMO that should mean a hell of a lot more than "Oh you haven't beat any "tournament" teams".  Well maybe they aren't tournament teams because we beat them and WE ARE THE F***ING TOURNAMENT TEAM!

 

You know... Maryland would be a tournament team if they beat us right... but they didn't

 

You Know... Penn State would be a tournament team if they beat us Sunday... but if they don't???

 

If Oklahoma loses 2 of the next 3 they would be 17-13.  That is two games away from .500 and they'd be 1-8 to finish the regular season.  Ummm... ANY logical line of thinking knows that team does not deserve to be in the tournament over Nebraska

Edited by big red22
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14 minutes ago, big red22 said:

When do losses count against you then?  I keep hearing about we don't have any Quad 1 wins, but yet Oklahoma can lose 7 games in a row.  One of them being to Iowa State and still doesn't matter?  It just makes no sense to me that having 12 losses doesn't matter.  They should, because your damn team isn't winning ball games, and IMO that should mean a hell of a lot more than "Oh you haven't beat any "tournament" teams".  Well maybe they aren't tournament teams because we beat them and WE ARE THE F***ING TOURNAMENT TEAM!

 

You know... Maryland would be a tournament team if they beat us right... but they didn't

 

You Know... Penn State would be a tournament team if they beat us Sunday... but if they don't???

 

If Oklahoma loses 2 of the next 3 they would be 17-13.  That is two games away from .500 and they'd be 1-8 to finish the regular season.  Ummm... ANY logical line of thinking knows that team does not deserve to be in the tournament over Nebraska

 

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. It's all in the metrics though.  Last time I looked OU was #1 in SOS and all the metrics on their resume (other than W-L record) make them look like a tourney team.  

 

A couple other things in their corner are that the committee no longer is supposed to use a recency bias, meaning this long losing streak won't hurt them as bad since their overall resume is strong. 

 

They also have most talked about Fr in the game, which might be a factor even though it shouldn't be.

 

I just get the sense either of these two teams (OU/KSU) would have to continue to collapse in order for them to be out.

 

I think we're going to be cheering for both these teams to knock off Baylor next week which probably helps both get in. That's probably our best shot. 

 

My worst fear is both teams lose to Baylor and all 3 manage to get in.

Edited by tjp21
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6 minutes ago, tjp21 said:

 

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. It's all in the metrics though.  Last time I looked OU was #1 in SOS and all the metrics on their resume (other than W-L record) make them look like a tourney team.  

 

A couple other things in their corner are that the committee no longer is supposed to use a recency bias, meaning this long losing streak won't hurt them as bad since their overall resume is strong. 

 

They also have most talked about Fr in the game, which might be a factor even though it shouldn't be.

 

I just get the sense either of these two teams (OU/KSU) would have to continue to collapse in order for them to be out.

 

I think we're going to be cheering for both these teams to knock off Baylor next week which probably helps both get in. That's probably our best shot. 

 

My worst fear is both teams lose to Baylor and all 3 manage to get in.

IMO they should be able to what they feel is right.  It can't be just "you can use this, but this other stuff doesn't matter"

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17 minutes ago, big red22 said:

When do losses count against you then?  I keep hearing about we don't have any Quad 1 wins, but yet Oklahoma can lose 7 games in a row.  One of them being to Iowa State and still doesn't matter?  It just makes no sense to me that having 12 losses doesn't matter.  They should, because your damn team isn't winning ball games, and IMO that should mean a hell of a lot more than "Oh you haven't beat any "tournament" teams".  Well maybe they aren't tournament teams because we beat them and WE ARE THE F***ING TOURNAMENT TEAM!

 

You know... Maryland would be a tournament team if they beat us right... but they didn't

 

You Know... Penn State would be a tournament team if they beat us Sunday... but if they don't???

 

If Oklahoma loses 2 of the next 3 they would be 17-13.  That is two games away from .500 and they'd be 1-8 to finish the regular season.  Ummm... ANY logical line of thinking knows that team does not deserve to be in the tournament over Nebraska

But they don’t care how you finish now... they don’t care how you play in conference (yet use a conferences RPI to try to take 8 teams or justify only 4 from the Big 10), they don’t care about wins or losses, they care to who(unless someone losses to the last place team in the PAC, SEC, Big East, Big 12, Or ACC) it’s who you beat(unless you are Buffalo, Loyola, Boise State, Bonnie’s) 

 

Yet, it seems everyone outside of 60% of the Nebraska fans think there is no chance.

 

Only 4 teams in the top 20 in the BIG.... 

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But they don’t care how you finish now... they don’t care how you play in conference (yet use a conferences RPI to try to take 8 teams or justify only 4 from the Big 10), they don’t care about wins or losses, they care to who(unless someone losses to the last place team in the PAC, SEC, Big East, Big 12, Or ACC) it’s who you beat(unless you are Buffalo, Loyola, Boise State, Bonnie’s) 

 

Yet, it seems everyone outside of 60% of the Nebraska fans think there is no chance.

 

Only 4 teams in the top 20 in the BIG.... 

 

But only 2 Big East teams in the top 25 yet projected to get 6?

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No matter what happens to us, there's a critical mass building against the rpi measure that indicates it's on borrowed time for the NCAA. If some good teams get wildly jobbed during the selection process, I think we'll see an offseason overhaul IF the tourney results cough up evidence that rpi isn't especially reliable. (meaning quite a few mis-seeds in the below 5th above 14th area; too many upsets). 

 

Conference weights just have to be re-evluated, because right now, it seems the only important part of the season is the first third of it, and then everything else is self-confirming bias. 

 

Edit: (and why do I keep being asked a reason? I feel like I need a hall pass to edit) It just burns that one missed KU shot at the end of a game and not drawing marist is the difference between us being firmly in and being on a Sisyphean task to get in. That seems the definition of paper thin arbitrary. 

Edited by tcp
no. just no.
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At this point we need the bubbliest teams to lose.  While Oklahoma should be on the bubble, with such a huge bubble this year, their resume will get them in.  We need the tweeners to lose more than the "should be bubble" teams.  That for me would be the following... the probably ins we need to win if they play another bubble team.

 

AAC-- Houston (probably in though), Tulsa

 

A10-- St. Bonnie

 

ACC-- VA Tech (probably in though), NC ST(probably in though), FSU, Miami, Louisville, Syracuse

 

Big 12-- OU (probably in though), KSU, TCU, Baylor, Texas, OSU

 

Big East-- Seton Hall (Probably in), Creighton (Probably in), Providence, Marquette

 

CUSA-- Middle Tennessee (Probably in), Western Kentucky, Old Dominion

 

MAC-- Buffalo

 

MWC-- Nevada (Probably in), Boise State

 

Pac 12-- Arizona (Probably in), USC, UCLA, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State

 

SEC-- Kentucky (Probably in), Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mizzou, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M

 

WCC-- Zaga (Probably in), St. Mary's

 

WAC-- New Mexico State

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1 hour ago, Alwaysred said:

But they don’t care how you finish now... they don’t care how you play in conference (yet use a conferences RPI to try to take 8 teams or justify only 4 from the Big 10), they don’t care about wins or losses, they care to who(unless someone losses to the last place team in the PAC, SEC, Big East, Big 12, Or ACC) it’s who you beat(unless you are Buffalo, Loyola, Boise State, Bonnie’s) 

 

Yet, it seems everyone outside of 60% of the Nebraska fans think there is no chance.

 

Only 4 teams in the top 20 in the BIG.... 

 

But only 2 Big East teams in the top 25 yet projected to get 6?

Exactly. I hear tons of excuses why Nebraska isn’t deserving, then the same person gives the opposite to a team that’s 7th in another conference.

 

or Palm saying even just getting to the championship game isn’t enough. Why? Nebraska would have an RPI of 35 with a finals loss, and a 3-6 quad 1 rank.

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56 minutes ago, tcp said:

No matter what happens to us, there's a critical mass building against the rpi measure that indicates it's on borrowed time for the NCAA. If some good teams get wildly jobbed during the selection process, I think we'll see an offseason overhaul IF the tourney results cough up evidence that rpi isn't especially reliable. (meaning quite a few mis-seeds in the below 5th above 14th area; too many upsets). 

 

Conference weights just have to be re-evluated, because right now, it seems the only important part of the season is the first third of it, and then everything else is self-confirming bias. 

 

Edit: (and why do I keep being asked a reason? I feel like I need a hall pass to edit) It just burns that one missed KU shot at the end of a game and not drawing marist is the difference between us being firmly in and being on a Sisyphean task to get in. That seems the definition of paper thin arbitrary. 

One of the biggest issues is it seems the selection by the public is made right before the conference season. The rest is just seeding. 

 

RPI weights early season games so hard that it really doesn’t sit great for a late blooming team that has a front loaded schedule. To me, that’s why there is a committee though, and they don’t just purely go off of RPI. They know it’s dlawed too, guess that’s why they’ll use two metrics with the RPI now (quads,RPI) SMDH.

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41 minutes ago, northwillriseagain said:

Exactly. I hear tons of excuses why Nebraska isn’t deserving, then the same person gives the opposite to a team that’s 7th in another conference.

 

or Palm saying even just getting to the championship game isn’t enough. Why? Nebraska would have an RPI of 35 with a finals loss, and a 3-6 quad 1 rank.

 

I have to think Palm's opinion that we have to win the conference tourney to get in is nothing more than a troll job on Husker fans.  There's no way I buy that and don't think anyone on the committee will either.  I think even if we lose to Penn St we'd get in if we made it to the conf final. 

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