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hhctony

Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

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Just now, Norm Peterson said:

 

Donkey, I understand what your point is, but don't you mean 12-6 rather than 13-5?

 

In order for Nebraska to get to 13-5 in the regular season, we'd have to win 8 or our last 9 regular season games.

 

We're on the cusp of the bubble right now.  The combination of teams we'd have to beat to get to 13-5 would clearly launch us into the front of the bubble or virtual lock territory.

 

To get to 13-5, we'd have to win out at home including beating Maryland, and we'd have to win 3 out of 4 of the following:  Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Illinois.

 

And,  by the way, there's not one of those teams that I look at and say, oh, there's no way we can beat them on the road.  We might not win them all, but for the first time in a very long time, we have a team that I look at and think they actually could.

 

I am in agreement with you: we can definitely beat most, if not all, of those teams on a neutral court.  I think we have the makings of a sneaky good team that could get through the first weekend.

 

I mean 14-4 Nebraska is dancing; 13-5 on the bubble with at least a semi-final finish in the BIG; 12-6 hello NIT.  The resume is problematic.  At this time, Bracket Matrix only shows Nebraska in one bracket.  We are not on the bubble as of yet.  Of the remaining 9 games, 6 have RPIs of 100+.  Minnesota (98) and Indiana (89) will likely go 5-4 at best the remainder of the season and finish with 100+ RPIs as well.  That leaves Maryland at 51.  At the end of the season, Nebraska cannot have any more 100+ RPI losses.  

 

Comparing resumes, of the 26 P5 and Big East schools all had at least 2 Quadrant 1 wins and no RPI 100+ losses.  On that metric, Nebraska's 0 Quadrant 1 wins and 1 RPI 100 loss does not stack up well.  Losing to anyone other than Maryland from here on out just adds another RPI 100 loss not in our favor.  

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Sorry but 12-6 and even 11-7 is not “hello NIT” especially with the conference tournament.  I think we are all forgetting the value of a road win as well.  No matter who you’re playing, it’s always tough to win on the road.  If we pick up 3 road wins in conference to go along with the 1 we already have, then that is pretty good.

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2 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Sorry but 12-6 and even 11-7 is not “hello NIT” especially with the conference tournament.  I think we are all forgetting the value of a road win as well.  No matter who you’re playing, it’s always tough to win on the road.  If we pick up 3 road wins in conference to go along with the 1 we already have, then that is pretty good.

 

He's saying that the problem is that the 4 teams we play on the road are all awful. On WarrenNolan.com they're all below 100 RPI, as is Northwestern right now. I'm in the camp that we need 23 total wins (that includes regular season and Big Ten tourney) to be locks based on how our remaining schedule and current resume stand. Finishing this final stretch of 9 games with a 6-3 record is absolutely NIT.  Finishing 7-2 I think we'd need two wins in the Big Ten tourney.

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We're talking about two different ways of looking at things in this thread: Projecting Nebraska in a vacuum vs Projecting Nebraska relative to everyone else.

To me buying into the latter seems like it could be the most accurate but it's also the most volatile; teams go into unexpected runs or slumps.  When we get into mid-february I'll trust it more.

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14 hours ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I actually think about this from time to time. Will us finishing a week early cause the (potential) bubble conversation to move from Nebraska to other teams who still have a week left to play, causing us to start getting overlooked with "fresher" wins from other teams?

 

I will say, however, that if we do squeeze our way into the tournament this compressed conference schedule seems to have set us up to be able to condition our team and get us comfortable with quick turnarounds and game preparations.

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It is impossible to predict at this time how many "wins" is the magic number.  We have to remember that all of the other "bubble" teams have 8-10 games left as well and will lose their fair share.  Its easy to look at schedules now and say "Well they only have 6 losses right now, none are bad, 1 is good." Well, 10 games from now that same team could have 12 losses with 2 more "bad" losses, etc....Last time I checked all of the other P5 teams have all of their conference games left as well as conference tourney.  Meaning, every single night, teams are winning/losing games.  And since we are in conference season, 1/2 of each conference is losing games every single night. 

 

Let's see if we can get the win tonight and move on.

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1 minute ago, bball23 said:

It is impossible to predict at this time how many "wins" is the magic number.  We have to remember that all of the other "bubble" teams have 8-10 games left as well and will lose their fair share.  Its easy to look at schedules now and say "Well they only have 6 losses right now, none are bad, 1 is good." Well, 10 games from now that same team could have 12 losses with 2 more "bad" losses, etc....Last time I checked all of the other P5 teams have all of their conference games left as well as conference tourney.  Meaning, every single night, teams are winning/losing games.  And since we are in conference season, 1/2 of each conference is losing games every single night. 

 

Let's see if we can get the win tonight and move on.

 

This!  We are in our own drivers seat and we just need to take care of our business.  The bubble will burst for other teams.  We just need to keep filling our bubble with more air.

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How nice would it be for NW to get back into the top 100 and we have a top 100 road win...

 

On our schedule left we have....

 

@Rutgers--180

Iowa-- 141

@Wisconsin--137

@Minnesota--100

Rutgers--180

Maryland-- 51 (These guys are 2-7 against the RPI top 100... 12-0 against 101+)

@Illinois--171

Indiana-- 95

Penn State--133

 

We cannot drop a game to Rutgers or Illinois.  Would be nice if Indiana and Minny could stay in the top 100 for us.  Against the RPI for teams we have left, we are 13-3 and if you take out Maryland, we are 12-1.

 

DIV. I ONLY
14-8
102
 
83
57
70
DIV. I NON-CONF.
9-4
89
 
253
97
148
 
RPI 1-50
RPI 51-100
RPI 101-200
RPI 200+
TOTALS
OVERALL
1-5
2-2
4-1
7-0
14-8
HOME
1-1
2-0
2-0
6-0
11-1
AWAY
0-4
0-1
1-1
0-0
1-6
NEUTRAL
0-0
0-1
1-0
1-0
2-1
NON-CONFERENCE
0-2
1-2
1-0
7-0
9-4
RPI 1-50
Team's RPI: 70
RPI
S Opponent Score
7
H
Kansas
72
73
1216
I
11
A
Purdue
62
74
0106
I
14
A
Ohio St.
59
64
0122
I
27
A
Michigan St.
57
86
1203
I
28
A
Creighton
65
75
1209
I
36
H
Michigan
72
52
0118
I
1
1
1
1
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RPI 51-100
Team's RPI: 70
RPI
S Opponent Score
62
N
UCF
59
68
1123
I
69
H
Boston College
71
62
1129
I
93
A
St. John's
56
79
1116
I
100
H
Minnesota
78
68
1205
I
1
1
1
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RPI 101-200
Team's RPI: 70
RPI
S Opponent Score
105
A
Northwestern
70
55
0102
I
133
A
Penn St.
74
76
0112
I
137
H
Wisconsin
63
59
0109
I
167
N
Long Beach St.
85
80
1126
I
171
H
Illinois
64
63
0115
I
1
1
1
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RPI 201+
Team's RPI: 70
RPI
S Opponent Score
203
H
North Texas
86
67
1113
I
205
H
North Dakota
92
70
1119
I
272
H
UTSA
104
94
1220
I
277
H
Eastern Illinois
72
68
1111
I
287
H
Stetson
71
62
1229
I
326
N
Marist
84
59
1124
I
351
H
Delaware St.
85
68
1222
I
1
1
1
1
1
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Edited by hskr4life

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Selection committee games for today, January 24th.

 

Rutgers (180) vs. Nebraska (70)

Xavier (4) vs. Marquette (46)

Florida State (41) vs. Georgia Tech (142)

Syracuse (43) vs. Boston College (69)

Florida (26) vs. South Carolina (56)

Fordham (274) vs. Rhode Island (10)

Miami (FL) (21) vs. Louisville (15)

Pitt (160) vs. NC State (96)

Illinois (171) vs. Indiana (95)

Missouri (38) vs. Auburn (9)

Cincinnati (25) vs. Temple (47)

USC (39) vs. Stanford (91)

Boise State (33) vs. San Jose State (306)

Wyoming (74) vs. Nevada (12)

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If they're at #170, we pretty much drop in the rpi whether we win or lose, right?  Hasn't that been the way it's always worked?  Lose against a top team and you can move up even though you lost, but play a bad team and you go down more if you lose but you go down even if you win?

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On 1/23/2018 at 3:03 PM, OmahaHusker said:

 

See I'm on the flip side of this. I actually do think the committee will leave a 22 win Big Ten team out if there's a team from another conference with a couple less total wins but wins over higher quality opponents. A team like UCLA has a tough remaining schedule and might only get to 19 or 20 wins but I think they'd get in over us even at the 22 win mark just with their current resume. The committee loves them some non con wins.

 

I have never understood the "if Big 12 or Big 10 team wins x number of games they are in"

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On 1/21/2018 at 3:09 PM, hhctony said:

I am hoping to do some more research on this with the new tiers for the Selection Committee this year

 

You might find this helpful. I think this site contains the sheets that the committee themselves get, updated almost daily

 

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

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This team is in Lunardi's first four out and the only thoughts on Nebraska Lunardi has is "meh" or "cant ride Big 10 coattails."

 

RPI- 52

SOS- 58

Record- 14-7

Conference Record- 4-5

Tier 1 Record- 0-6

Tier 2 Record- 1-1

Tier 3 Record- 7-0

Tier 4 Record- 6-0

 

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15 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

This team is in Lunardi's first four out and the only thoughts on Nebraska Lunardi has is "meh" or "cant ride Big 10 coattails."

 

RPI- 52

SOS- 58

Record- 14-7

Conference Record- 4-5

Tier 1 Record- 0-6

Tier 2 Record- 1-1

Tier 3 Record- 7-0

Tier 4 Record- 6-0

 

 

Inthink it shows how we aren’t really that far off.

 

Put MSU, Purdue, or even Wisconsin and maybe NW against our schedule this year. Say they have the exact same record right now.

 

How many of those teams do you think are in?  I would say they would have Purdue and MSU in and Wisco and NW in the first or next 4 out.

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16 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

This team is in Lunardi's first four out and the only thoughts on Nebraska Lunardi has is "meh" or "cant ride Big 10 coattails."

 

RPI- 52

SOS- 58

Record- 14-7

Conference Record- 4-5

Tier 1 Record- 0-6

Tier 2 Record- 1-1

Tier 3 Record- 7-0

Tier 4 Record- 6-0

 

Nebraska's resume

RPI 61

SOS 83

Record 15 - 8

Conference 6 - 4

Tier 1 record 0 - 5

Tier 2 record 3 - 3

Tier 3 record 5 - 0

Tier 4 record 7 - 0

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1 hour ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

This team is in Lunardi's first four out and the only thoughts on Nebraska Lunardi has is "meh" or "cant ride Big 10 coattails."

 

RPI- 52

SOS- 58

Record- 14-7

Conference Record- 4-5

Tier 1 Record- 0-6

Tier 2 Record- 1-1

Tier 3 Record- 7-0

Tier 4 Record- 6-0

 

 

I think when Lunardi said that he was talking more about the Big Ten conference and how us racking up wins is just "meh". He's throwing Maryland in the first four out because of where they are currently but doesn't think they'll stick. Based on what he's said on twitter he leans heavily on the side of only let 4 Big Ten teams in.

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Edited to show games through January 24. Nebraska currently 61 in RPI.

 

Tier 1 (0-5): Michigan State (26), Creighton (28), Kansas (9), Purdue (10), Ohio State (14). REMAINING: none.

Tier 2 (3-3): St. Johns (96), UCF (67), Boston College (70), Northwestern (102), Penn State (133), Michigan (34). REMAINING: vs. Maryland (52), at Minnesota (100).

Tier 3 (5-0): Minnesota (100), Long Beach State (169), Wisconsin (133), Illinois (158), Rutgers (189). REMAINING: at Wisconsin (138), vs. Iowa (143), at Illinois (158), vs. Indiana (111), vs. Penn State (133). 

Tier 4 (7-0): Eastern Illinois (278), North Texas (204), North Dakota (209), Marist (326), UTSA (268), Delaware State (351), Stetson (300). REMAINING: vs. Rutgers (189)

Edited by hhctony

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Jeez. Just looked at Bracket Matrix and looked for individual brackets that have been updated since last night. Didn't go through 'em all but found 10-15 that were as of this morning. Only found one that had us in the first eight out. Plus you've got the one bracket out of 91 that did have us 'in' before last night's win. Still a ways to go to enter true 'bubble' talk.

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3 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Jeez. Just looked at Bracket Matrix and looked for individual brackets that have been updated since last night. Didn't go through 'em all but found 10-15 that were as of this morning. Only found one that had us in the first eight out. Plus you've got the one bracket out of 91 that did have us 'in' before last night's win. Still a ways to go to enter true 'bubble' talk.

 

Just remember that the Big Ten is also a week ahead of everybody else. If we're not getting any recognition now, it's only going to be that much more of an uphill battle.

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13 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

Just remember that the Big Ten is also a week ahead of everybody else. If we're not getting any recognition now, it's only going to be that much more of an uphill battle.

Sorta. Bubble teams are, by nature, prone to losing - which gives them an extra week to exhibit bad losses, too.

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The thing is... 12-6 probably puts us in a double bye for the tournament which means we probably have to beat maryland and/or michigan again in new york to get in the tournament.

 

Maybe I'm wrong.

 

If we go 13-5 then I'm not sure that game will matter.

 

Either way we need to keep winning.

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2 hours ago, hhctony said:

Edited to show games through January 24. Nebraska currently 61 in RPI.

 

Tier 1 (0-5): Michigan State (26), Creighton (28), Kansas (9), Purdue (10), Ohio State (14). REMAINING: none.

Tier 2 (3-3): St. Johns (96), UCF (57), Boston College (70), Northwestern (102), Penn State (133), Michigan (34). REMAINING: vs. Maryland (52).

Tier 3 (5-0): Minnesota (100), Long Beach State (169), Wisconsin (133), Illinois (158), Rutgers (189). REMAINING: at Wisconsin (138), vs. Iowa (143), at Illinois (158), vs. Indiana (111), vs. Penn State (133). 

Tier 4 (7-0): Eastern Illinois (278), North Texas (204), North Dakota (209), Marist (326), UTSA (268), Delaware State (351), Stetson (300). REMAINING: vs. Rutgers (189)

Maybe I missed it on here but isn’t @ Minnesota a tier 2 game left?

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9 minutes ago, ShortDust said:

Maybe I missed it on here but isn’t @ Minnesota a tier 2 game left?

 

It is. I edited the post, but it didn't seem to take in your quote.

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