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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

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2 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

It’s definitely a factor. They might not look specifically at your record in your last ten, but they definitely watch games this month to get a feel for what kind of team you’ve become. This will be the biggest factor playing in our favor. This team has the capability of making a run in the tourney. The idea of them being relegated to the NIT makes me nauseous.

 

Of course they're watching some. It's not a stated factor on their sheets any more.

 

And, yes, I fully agree that this NU team could be a serious player in the Big Dance. Let's just keep winning !!!

 

 

Edited by AuroranHusker

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Have been looking at bracketmatrix and think I've given myself a concussion from banging my head on the wall. And yes I realize there will be bias' and formulas I don't understand. But when 1 bracket shows 9 SEC making the tournament and 4 others being listed in "1st 4 out" to "in consideration" I can't take that seriously. South Carolina and Georgia are still both listed and were both sitting at 4-7 in conference and 13 total wins before they each lost today. But I guess if you list 80-some teams you are bound be correct and give yourself a pat on the back. And I just keep trying to tell myself let the games play out and things will be fine.

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13 hours ago, rr52 said:

Have been looking at bracketmatrix and think I've given myself a concussion from banging my head on the wall. And yes I realize there will be bias' and formulas I don't understand. But when 1 bracket shows 9 SEC making the tournament and 4 others being listed in "1st 4 out" to "in consideration" I can't take that seriously. South Carolina and Georgia are still both listed and were both sitting at 4-7 in conference and 13 total wins before they each lost today. But I guess if you list 80-some teams you are bound be correct and give yourself a pat on the back. And I just keep trying to tell myself let the games play out and things will be fine.

BracketMatrix is just an aggregator of lots of brackets.  Many of them have some conference bias etc.   Don't bang your head too hard.

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1. I would be surprised if any school is dancing with a sub .500 record.  Watch the schools with conference records of 7-5/6-6/5-7. Lots of them in the P5 conferences, and they are playing each other in the next 5-6 games. Many of these schools already have 7+ losses and could easily finish with 10-12 losses before it’s all over (counting their respective conference tourneys).  This attrition should help. I know some disagree that conference record is a consideration by the committee, but a sub.500 record over the last 15-20 games would be significant under any criteria. I spoke with my Kentucky friends and there is a concern Kentucky could struggle to get in the tournament this year because the SEC has a bunch of good schools but none of them are really dominant (like how the ACC has Duke and Virginia and the Big East has Xavier and Villanova) the SEC schools could knock themselves out. I see the same happening with the Big 12 and Pac12. That is the reason why we are seeing questionable schools from the Big 12, PAC 12 and SEC in the bubble discussion. One of them could go in a run but at the expense of 2-3 others. I could see 4 at large bids opening up (one for each conference, Pac12, Big12, SEC, and Big East) under this scenario with a possible 2-3 bids lost from the Big 12 and SEC due to sub .500 conference record schools. 

 

2.  3-4 Mid Major bids are still being projected. I could see another 2-3 bids going out if #1 occurs. Boise St and St Bonaventure may have a case. I am not sold on WKU just yet. 

 

3. I am keeping with most of my original prediction 14-4 in, 13-5 need a BIG tourney win and in. I will change on my 12-6 prediction. I still expect Nebraska to be out. However, I could see a scenario where both losses would have to be to Maryland and Penn State, both of whom would need very strong finishes, ie win out. Also there would need to be a lot of attrition as outlined in #1 above, and Nebraska would have to get to the BIG final. 

 

I love this team. The game to game improvement is clear and these kids are not near their ceiling. The remaining schedule is winnable but not exactly weak. That Rutgers game was a true test. Rutgers plays hard and kept coming back. It was a very winnable game but the kids kept focused until the end. 

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Lunardi's latest bracket is out.  We're up 2 spots to being listed as 2nd team out.  We will continue to play the role of the tortoise and we'll eventually beat that hare and get in the bracket!

 

image.png

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

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44 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated since Saturday morning. Curious to see where we end up after his next update. Should be soon, I'd think.

Would be nice if they updated at consistent time so we didn't have to keep checking. But being part of the conversation/bracket is worth it, I guess. 

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50 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated since Saturday morning. Curious to see where we end up after his next update. Should be soon, I'd think.

He tweeted that he would be updating it today. Monday is by far the most common day for bracketologists to update his bracket, so he'll be waiting for all of those to roll in.

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1 minute ago, HuskerActuary said:

He tweeted that he would be updating it today. Monday is by far the most common day for bracketologists to update his bracket, so he'll be waiting for all of those to roll in.

I figured. Was a little surprised there wasn't an update after Saturday.

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Absolutely insane that Providence stayed in the exact same spot as before, and Washington actually moved UP!!! Since the last update, Providence got blown out at home by lowly DePaul and Washington lost TWO games to Oregon and lowly Oregon State....

 

I think it's hard for Lunardi and other bracketologists to nudge us into the field right now due to our lack of big wins. You look at the Team Sheets of all the bubble teams around us and most have 3-5 Tier 1 wins... and they aren't just limited to road wins against the RPI 75 teams... a lot of them are really impressive wins. I do agree that most brackets should have us in if we beat Maryland, though.

 

More good news is that most of the bubble teams around us have a handful of games they should lose when you look at their schedules. And a lot of them play each other as well. I still think that 23 win mark is the key for us. Would still be really nice if Michigan could have a strong finish to get into that T1 status.

Edited by Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty

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2 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

Absolutely insane that Providence stayed in the exact same spot as before, and Washington actually moved UP!!! Since the last update, Providence got blown out at home by lowly DePaul and Washington lost TWO games to Oregon and lowly Oregon State....

 

I think it's hard for Lunardi and other bracketologists to nudge us into the field right now due to our lack of big wins. You look at the Team Sheets of all the bubble teams around us and most have 3-5 Tier 1 wins. I do agree that most brackets should have us in if we beat Maryland, though.

 

More good news is that most of the bubble teams around us have a handful of games they should lose when you look at their schedules. And a lot of them play each other as well. I still think that 23 win mark is the key for us. Would still be really nice if Michigan could have a strong finish to get into that T1 status.

I was so confused when I saw providence and washington still in. Not to mention KState is in after going 1-3 in their last 4 and getting straight earholed in 3 of them (losses by 14, 38,19).

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Here we go......28th in Andy Katz power rankings. One spot behind Creighton and above teams like UCLA and Washington. Comforting to see this on a NCAA website as well.

 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-12/andy-katzs-power-36-predicting-whos-and-out-ncaa-tournament?utm_content=buffer4affa&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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1 minute ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Here we go......28th in Andy Katz power rankings. One spot behind Creighton and above teams like UCLA and Washington. Comforting to see this on a NCAA website as well.

 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-02-12/andy-katzs-power-36-predicting-whos-and-out-ncaa-tournament?utm_content=buffer4affa&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Katz has had some mad respect for us over the last few weeks. Seems to be the first national pundit to see what we're made of. Hopefully it becomes contagious.

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27 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Katz has had some mad respect for us over the last few weeks. Seems to be the first national pundit to see what we're made of. Hopefully it becomes contagious.

Beat Maryland, and we will be on damn near every bracket. 

 

20-8 - Overall Record

11-4 - Conference Record

Maryland is currently #39 on the Kenpom.  It may not be a Top 30 win, but it is a Top 50 win.  There are a lot of bracketologists the have that for their system.

 

Edit: Not to mention NC State should not be in any brackets, yet they are in quite a few after the last update.  Their RPI is 72 and kenpom is 59... They are also 16-9 overall and 6-6 in conference, but somehow they have wins over Duke, Clemson and NC

 

Edited by big red22

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30 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

Katz has had some mad respect for us over the last few weeks. Seems to be the first national pundit to see what we're made of. Hopefully it becomes contagious.

 

Katz is on Big Ten Network occasionally & he's been pumping Nebrasketball as a 'sleeper' in the conference for several weeks.

 

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Listening to Rasmussen, I get the sense that this committee is going to be very incompetent.  He said they don't look at margin of victory at all.  What?  That is asinine.  He mentioned quadrants many times.  That is asinine.  They are doing this all wrong if these things are the case.  And judging by some of the awful placements in that 16, like Oklahoma, they clearly are doing it wrong.  

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1 minute ago, royalfan said:

Listening to Rasmussen, I get the sense that this committee is going to be very incompetent.  He said they don't look at margin of victory at all.  What?  That is asinine.  He mentioned quadrants many times.  That is asinine.  They are doing this all wrong if these things are the case.  And judging by some of the awful placements in that 16, like Oklahoma, they clearly are doing it wrong.  

 

Oklahoma, Duke, and KU were all out of whack. But what do I know?! smh

 

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2 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Listening to Rasmussen, I get the sense that this committee is going to be very incompetent.  He said they don't look at margin of victory at all.  What?  That is asinine.  He mentioned quadrants many times.  That is asinine.  They are doing this all wrong if these things are the case.  And judging by some of the awful placements in that 16, like Oklahoma, they clearly are doing it wrong.  

 

And that's why I think it's so critical that we either get a Tier 1 win or hope Michigan or Northwestern improve their RPIs to move into that tier. It's hard to defend a team who hasn't proved they can compete in the tournament (generalizing here).

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3 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

And that's why I think it's so critical that we either get a Tier 1 win or hope Michigan or Northwestern improve their RPIs to move into that tier. It's hard to defend a team who hasn't proved they can compete in the tournament (generalizing here).

 

Definitely need to root for Mich & NW. And, of course, Nebrasketball wins!!!

 

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5 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

And that's why I think it's so critical that we either get a Tier 1 win or hope Michigan or Northwestern improve their RPIs to move into that tier. It's hard to defend a team who hasn't proved they can compete in the tournament (generalizing here).

Yes, I may start changing my tune.  Assuming the committee will be smart, well you know how the saying goes with assuming.  Quadrants are absolutely ludicrous and to make them worse, they are based off of the most flawed metric possible.  If they would base them off of the average of the 6 metrics, instead of the worst metric by far, then it would make more sense.  

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17 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Yes, I may start changing my tune.  Assuming the committee will be smart, well you know how the saying goes with assuming.  Quadrants are absolutely ludicrous and to make them worse, they are based off of the most flawed metric possible.  If they would base them off of the average of the 6 metrics, instead of the worst metric by far, then it would make more sense.  

 

That would be way too logical for a 'committee.'

 

:blink:

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40 minutes ago, royalfan said:

Yes, I may start changing my tune.  Assuming the committee will be smart, well you know how the saying goes with assuming.  Quadrants are absolutely ludicrous and to make them worse, they are based off of the most flawed metric possible.  If they would base them off of the average of the 6 metrics, instead of the worst metric by far, then it would make more sense.  

 

I don't think the idea of using quadrants, with differing tiers for home/away/neutral, is a bad idea.  It's at least better than the old system of treating all top 50 wins equal, since it gives you credit for beating good teams away from home.  However, you are absolutely correct that tying it to RPI is ludicrous when modern-day metrics are far more advanced.

 

TL;DR: quadrants = good, RPI = bad.

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