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Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board


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16 hours ago, jdw said:

By sor Nebraska has 10 top 100 wins.

A) BPI = Nebraska has 10 Top 100 Wins "3(Top 50)"
B) RPI = Nebraska has 3 Top 100 Wins "1(Top 50)
C) SOR = Nebraska has 8 Top 100 Wins "2(Top 50)"
D) Kenpom = Nebraska has 9 Top 100 Wins "3 (Top 50)"

If this was a math problem in school and the question asked "Which one doesn't fit in?" The Answer would be "B"

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7 minutes ago, big red22 said:

A) BPI = Nebraska has 10 Top 100 Wins "3(Top 50)"
B) RPI = Nebraska has 3 Top 100 Wins "1(Top 50)
C) SOR = Nebraska has 8 Top 100 Wins "2(Top 50)"
D) Kenpom = Nebraska has 9 Top 100 Wins "3 (Top 50)"

If this was a math problem in school and the question asked "Which one doesn't fit in?" The Answer would be "B"

 

This is why RPI should not be solely used.

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3 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

BREAKING...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE SELECTION COMMITTEE IS ONLY CONSIDERING 4 BIG 10 TEAMS. 

 

This is from ESPN and the King of Bracketology so it has to be true:

 

image.png

 

Hopefully Michigan wins today so that number moves to 5!!!

 

We didn't move by the way.  Still has Syracuse and UCLA ahead of us in first 4 out.  Then has Texas, USC, Louisville, and Providence as last 4 in.  Then has Bonnies, Baylor, Alabama, Arizona St as last 4 byes.  And here I was about the bubble losses last night.  Yeesh.

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3 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

 

We didn't move by the way.  Still has Syracuse and UCLA ahead of us in first 4 out.  Then has Texas, USC, Louisville, and Providence as last 4 in.  Then has Bonnies, Baylor, Alabama, Arizona St as last 4 byes.  And here I was about the bubble losses last night.  Yeesh.

 

I don't think there's typically a lot of movement in his "Last Four/First Four" etc categories in his daily updates.  Or least it hasn't seemed like it. I'm not paying much attention to Lunardi other than using him as a baseline for which teams I need to cheer against. 

 

I feel like both he and Palm are placing Nebraska strategically in their brackets to draw attention and clicks.  We're a special case this year that doesn't fall in line with the guys who love the metrics. The reason our metrics aren't good is because the way our schedule played out (big conf games on road not at home for example), not really because we continue to fall flat in the games we need to win. We'll see how much it changes next week.  I still think we have a fairly good chance to get in as long as we don't get embarrassed tomorrow.  I'd rather we just win it all and make it a moot point, but we'll see.  

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2 minutes ago, tjp21 said:

 

I don't think there's typically a lot of movement in his "Last Four/First Four" etc categories in his daily updates.  Or least it hasn't seemed like it. I'm not paying much attention to Lunardi other than using him as a baseline for which teams I need to cheer against. 

 

I feel like both he and Palm are placing Nebraska strategically in their brackets to draw attention and clicks.  We're a special case this year that doesn't fall in line with the guys who love the metrics. The reason our metrics aren't good is because the way our schedule played out (big conf games on road not at home for example), not really because we continue to fall flat in the games we need to win. We'll see how much it changes next week.  I still think we have a fairly good chance to get in as long as we don't get embarrassed tomorrow.  I'd rather we just win it all and make it a moot point, but we'll see.  

 

That's kind of where I am at.  We are setting up to be the team on Selection Sunday that gets in and then everyone complains about because our "metrics just weren't there."

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33 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

BREAKING...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE SELECTION COMMITTEE IS ONLY CONSIDERING 4 BIG 10 TEAMS. 

 

This is from ESPN and the King of Bracketology so it has to be true:

 

image.png

 

We need a few good days after two stellar months. OK......

 

A few is three or more, right? So we need to win it all then. Good to know.

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Another comparison that mutes the pundants like Lunardi and Palm

 

Everyone keeps comparing this B10 to the 2011-2012 Pac 12... And another guy compared this Nebraska team to Creighton in the 2008-2009 season

 

So lets compare 2017-2018 Big 10 vs 2011-2012 Pac 12 vs 2008-2009 MVC

 

These conferences look SO comparable :rolleyes:

 

Big 10: 2017-2018 BPI SOR
MSU 5 4
Purdue 3 5
Michigan 17 10
OSU 11 16
Nebraska 58 34
Maryland 39 50
PSU 28 65
Indiana 75 67
Wisconsin 71 87
Northwestern 72 91
Minnesota 101 104
Iowa 87 116
Illinois 98 130
Rutgers 131 154
     
Pac 12: 2011-2012 BPI SOR
Cal 31 52
Oregon 63 56
Washington 80 57
Stanford 75 60
Colorado 89 67
Arizona 51 73
UCLA 70 109
Oregon State 100 123
Washington State 111 141
Arizona State 245 236
USC 224 276
UTAH 328 283
     
MVC: 2008-2009 BPI SOR
Creighton 60 57
UNI 90 76
Illinois State 56 80
Bradley 133 116
Evansville 125 129
Wichita State 149 155
Drake 129 164
Southern Illinois 146 177
Missouri State 205 219
Indiana State 217

221

Edited by big red22
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1 minute ago, hskr4life said:

LOL Nebraska would be 1st or 2nd in both of those conferences just based on metrics.  

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

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Just now, big red22 said:

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

 

SOR is good to use at the END of the year.  That is exactly where we are at.  You can't dismiss that one right now because it's best when not being used as a predictive metric.  There isn't any more games to predict.  We did it with our schedule.  SOR should be looked at more than RPI at the end of a year.  Now through the year, I could see where SOR would be misleading.  Every metric has it's flaws, but SOR should be brought up when the Huskers are being discussed in the next week.

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More flattering commentary from Palm today:

 

"Nebraska vs. Michigan, 2:30 p.m., Big Ten Network: That sigh of relief you heard yesterday afternoon came from Nebraska after Michigan held off Iowa in overtime. A Michigan loss would have been a dagger in the tournament hopes of the Cornhuskers, who desperately need quality wins. Iowa would have been a useless opponent. Nebraska gets another shot at Michigan, but the Huskers need more than this."

 

WE NEED MORE - If we could somehow get ourselves inserted into the Big 12 tournament next week, we might have a shot.

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So for those that are concerned with our RPI, a win today would bump us up from 57 to 42 on this website: https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/info/rpi-rankings

 

That would lock us up for a bid, and probably even by-pass a play-in game IMO. I'm of the opinion that we'll still make it to a play-in game if we lose a close game today, as long as nothing too wild happens in conference tournaments.

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22 hours ago, big red22 said:

I just keep laughing at the we only have 3 top 100 wins claim that Palm keeps using.  SOR is a hell of a lot more accurate with NCAA teams then the RPI.  Might want to stop using that as your go to Palm and Lunardi!

Palm is use to using his palm ;)

 

After reading some of my posts I am starting to think I put to much Bailey's in my coffee this morning.

Edited by colhusker
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12 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

More flattering commentary from Palm today:

 

"Nebraska vs. Michigan, 2:30 p.m., Big Ten Network: That sigh of relief you heard yesterday afternoon came from Nebraska after Michigan held off Iowa in overtime. A Michigan loss would have been a dagger in the tournament hopes of the Cornhuskers, who desperately need quality wins. Iowa would have been a useless opponent. Nebraska gets another shot at Michigan, but the Huskers need more than this."

 

WE NEED MORE - If we could somehow get ourselves inserted into the Big 12 tournament next week, we might have a shot.

A useless opponent...that would have made it easier for us to win the whole tournament!

 

We still have a chance to earn a trip to the dance, regardless of who we play.  These people are idiots.

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11 minutes ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

So for those that are concerned with our RPI, a win today would bump us up from 57 to 42 on this website: https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/info/rpi-rankings

 

That would lock us up for a bid, and probably even by-pass a play-in game IMO. I'm of the opinion that we'll still make it to a play-in game if we lose a close game today, as long as nothing too wild happens in conference tournaments.

But what would a loss to Michigan State do to the RPI? It wouldn't stay stagnant, would it?

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Here is the one thing...every at large team will have at least 1 more loss.(many will have 2 losses)

 

Nebraska can only have one more loss, while many of the other teams on the bubble can have 2 more losses (since most play a regular season game this weekend and have tournamnets next week)

 

a loss to Michigan will hurt our chances, but remember that every other bubble team will also have a loss in their conference tourney, too.

 

If they don't have a loss in their tourney, they are the automatic bid.

 

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38 minutes ago, atskooc said:

But what would a loss to Michigan State do to the RPI? It wouldn't stay stagnant, would it?

 

Good point. According to that website, it'd drop us to 47th. Of course that's assuming no other games are being played. Obviously there will be slight changes to our OWP and OOWP based on other games, plus other teams will move up/down the list based on their outcomes. But I think it's safe to say it'd be in that ballpark.

 

And for good measure, beating both the Michigan schools would put us around 36th leading up to the B1G CG.

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Please delete both chart posts above this one is correct...

 

  KenPom BPI SOR RPI LRMC Massey T-Rank Saragin Team Rankings KPI Average
Baylor 29 35 40 56 32 42 30 23 26 53 36.6
USC 41 45 54 30 36 36 37 37 41 34 39.1
Arizona State 36 43 55 37 28 39 40 42 45 28 39.3
Missouri 40 50 45 38 44 45 39 43 44 31 41.9
Oklahoma 45 44 34 62 49 35 50 39 38 25 42.1
Texas 43 42 41 60 34 43 42 36 39 47 42.7
Notre Dame 31 32 59 69 38 47 36 30 32 63 43.7
Penn State 32 28 63 83 27 47 24 40 37 69 45
Kansas State 46 49 32 62 50 41 46 44 42 44 45.6
Alabama 56 51 62 57 47 44 51 53 46 24 49.1
Maryland 48 41 58 51 43 53 43 41 43 77 49.8
Marquette 49 46 47 64 59 56 47 46 47 52 51.3
Syracuse 52 51 56 48 52 49 52 52 55 48 51.5
UCLA 53 59 60 51 48 54 53 45 48 45 51.6
Nebraska 50 58 33 54 46 53 45 55 63 64 52.1
St. Bonaventure 66 56 35 21 70 57 71 56 65 38 53.5
Boise State 51 53 52 50 56 50 56 58 56 61 54.3
Mississippi State 59 64 49 66 58 48 55 64 53 57 57.3
Providence 72 73 46 42 69 60 68 61 54 40 58.5
Washington 94 108 67 49 93 79 87 92 107 41 81.7

 

 

This is the best example of how metrics need to be used with a grain of salt.  I highlighted Penn State and Maryland, because there is no way they are getting into the field.  Yet if you are to average out all the metrics they are significantly rated higher.

 

Then Ranking systems like KPI almost need to be completely tossed aside.  You can't take that metric seriously, because it has Oklahoma and Alabama 24 and 25.  It also has Washington at 41... compare that to every other sheet?

 

Looking at this chart, you can remove any bracket that has St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Mississippi State, Providence or Washington ahead of us.  Nebraska has the beat in both the Metrics and the Eye test.

 

IMO looking at all the metrics the most consistent one is once again SOR.  Why you ask, because the 20 teams listed are considered the "Bubble Teams". 

 

Ranges

 

Kenpom: 29-94

BPI: 28-108

SOR: 32-67 <<< This seems the most legit comparing like teams(Bubble Teams)

RPI: 21-83

LRMC: 27-93

Massey: 35-79

T-Rank: 24-87

Saragin: 23-92

Team Ranking: 26-107

KPI: 24-77

Edited by hhcdimes
fixed i think
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1 minute ago, big red22 said:

Please delete both chart posts above this one is correct...

 

  KenPom BPI SOR RPI LRMC Massey T-Rank Saragin Team Rankings KPI Average
Baylor 29 35 40 56 32 42 30 23 26 53 36.6
USC 41 45 54 30 36 36 37 37 41 34 39.1
Arizona State 36 43 55 37 28 39 40 42 45 28 39.3
Missouri 40 50 45 38 44 45 39 43 44 31 41.9
Oklahoma 45 44 34 62 49 35 50 39 38 25 42.1
Texas 43 42 41 60 34 43 42 36 39 47 42.7
Notre Dame 31 32 59 69 38 47 36 30 32 63 43.7
Penn State 32 28 63 83 27 47 24 40 37 69 45
Kansas State 46 49 32 62 50 41 46 44 42 44 45.6
Alabama 56 51 62 57 47 44 51 53 46 24 49.1
Maryland 48 41 58 51 43 53 43 41 43 77 49.8
Marquette 49 46 47 64 59 56 47 46 47 52 51.3
Syracuse 52 51 56 48 52 49 52 52 55 48 51.5
UCLA 53 59 60 51 48 54 53 45 48 45 51.6
Nebraska 50 58 33 54 46 53 45 55 63 64 52.1
St. Bonaventure 66 56 35 21 70 57 71 56 65 38 53.5
Boise State 51 53 52 50 56 50 56 58 56 61 54.3
Mississippi State 59 64 49 66 58 48 55 64 53 57 57.3
Providence 72 73 46 42 69 60 68 61 54 40 58.5
Washington 94 108 67 49 93 79 87 92 107 41 81.7

 

Nice chart.  A couple of my thoughts.

 

  1. It's a little worrisome that true bubble teams such as Baylor, Texas, Mizzou, and USC have us beat by about an average of 10 spots.
  2. Our SOR sticks out like a sore thumb.  That is pretty remarkable.  If you look at UCLA, Syracuse, and Marquette, they don't have a single metric in the 30's.
  3. This list just goes to show that teams like Arizona State and Oklahoma should be more bubbly than they really are.  That stinks!

 

 

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