Jump to content

Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board


hhctony

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

Jerry Palm doesn't have Skers in his first four out...he has Boise St/Bonnies/Utah/Temple.  Also has Western Kentucky as his last team in.  I think you could make a solid case right now that Nebraska should be ahead of Western Kentucky and Boise St.  Western Kentucky being "in" is a joke IMO. 

 

I honestly believe it's because we're 0'fer in Quadrant 1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I honestly believe it's because we're 0'fer in Quadrant 1.

Probably, but Western Kentucky shouldn't be the team ahead of us if that's the case. They only have one tier 1 win, and look at their other metrics...

 

4-4 against tier 3 teams (losses to Belmont, Missouri State, UTSA, Ohio)

The six metrics on the team sheet average #67. The very best one is RPI and that is #55 (worse than Nebraska). They are #87 in Sagarin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

 

I honestly believe it's because we're 0'fer in Quadrant 1.

 

I think you are correct...and Western Kentucky has one of those.  Vs Purdue early on in the season.  Great win...but they also have FOUR tier 3 losses.  They have losses to Mizzou St/Ohio/Wisconsin/UTSA.  Their overall metric scores is 67 with an average RPI win of 181 and losses at 110.  Compare that to Nebraska who has an overall metric score of 52 with an average RPI win of 181 and average RPI loss at 35.  Sorry, but Nebraska>>>Western Kentucky.  And I'm not claiming Nebraska should be "in" right now.  I think everyone on this board agrees we need to win the next three.  But having Western Kent in(and I usually like Palm's take) is a joke IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

I think you are correct...and Western Kentucky has one of those.  Vs Purdue early on in the season.  Great win...but they also have FOUR tier 3 losses.  They have losses to Mizzou St/Ohio/Wisconsin/UTSA.  Their overall metric scores is 67 with an average RPI win of 181 and losses at 110.  Compare that to Nebraska who has an overall metric score of 52 with an average RPI win of 181 and average RPI loss at 35.  Sorry, but Nebraska>>>Western Kentucky.  And I'm not claiming Nebraska should be "in" right now.  I think everyone on this board agrees we need to win the next three.  But having Western Kent in(and I usually like Palm's take) is a joke IMO. 

Jerry Palm's bracketology ranks 82nd over the last 3 years....so the good news is, it is proven he has no idea what he is talking about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bracketologists are people who try to predict what the committee is going to do.

ASSUMING we win out, we have the fingerprints of teams that do make the tourney (14-4 in the B1G) and don't make the tourney (No "Big" wins)

 

Much like my father-in-law from Michigan I'm going to be rooting for the Huskers and Wolverines for the next two weeks

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

*IF* we continue winning and Purdue continues their tumble, you could very well see OSU fall to the 2 and NU rise to the 3. These next couple of weeks are gonna be chaos.

 

I think Penn St is white hot right now but I think Purdue snaps back for a Sunday night game and wins by double digits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After Penn State's big win last night, Nebraska versus Penn State in terms of the bubble is pretty interesting. Nebraska's "result-based" metrics, which are historically valued more by the committee, are generally better than Penn State's. But Penn State's "predictive-based" metrics are all waaaaay better.

 

These are what would appear on the committee's sheets as of today:

 

Result-Based

RPI: Nebraska 52, Penn State 74

KPI: Nebraska 59, Penn State 60

Strength of record: Nebraska 29, Penn State 59

Average: Nebraska 47, Penn State 64

 

Predictive-Based

BPI: Nebraska 58, Penn State 25

KenPom: Nebraska 54, Penn State 28

Sagarin: Nebraska 57, Penn State 37

Average: Nebraska 56, Penn State 30

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

After Penn State's big win last night, Nebraska versus Penn State in terms of the bubble is pretty interesting. Nebraska's "result-based" metrics, which are historically valued more by the committee, are generally better than Penn State's. But Penn State's "predictive-based" metrics are all waaaaay better.

 

These are what would appear on the committee's sheets as of today:

 

Result-Based

RPI: Nebraska 52, Penn State 74

KPI: Nebraska 59, Penn State 60

Strength of record: Nebraska 29, Penn State 59

Average: Nebraska 47, Penn State 64

 

Predictive-Based

BPI: Nebraska 58, Penn State 25

KenPom: Nebraska 54, Penn State 28

Sagarin: Nebraska 57, Penn State 37

Average: Nebraska 56, Penn State 30

Dumb question but what do the predictive based rankings mean?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

Dumb question but what do the predictive based rankings mean?

They don't care about the W/L result. A one-point win is only slightly better than a one-point loss. On the flip side, the result-based metrics don't take into account margin of victory.

 

Generally the predictive based rankings are better predictors of future performance (hence the name) but many would say that result based are more meaningful to deciding who "deserves" to be in.

Edited by HuskerActuary
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

Jerry Palm doesn't have Skers in his first four out...he has Boise St/Bonnies/Utah/Temple.  Also has Western Kentucky as his last team in.  I think you could make a solid case right now that Nebraska should be ahead of Western Kentucky and Boise St.  Western Kentucky being "in" is a joke IMO. 

Here's what one bracketologist (not Palm) said earlier today about Western Nebraska being ahead of Nebraska.

 

"I want to be clear – I believe Nebraska is a better basketball team than Western Kentucky. However, I believe the committee would currently have Western Kentucky ahead of Nebraska. The reason is threefold:

 

1. Non-Conference SOS
– Nebraska: 264th
– WKU: 37th

2. Tier 1 + Tier 2 Record
– Nebraska: 3-8
– WKU: 3-3

3. Two Best Wins:
– Nebraska: Michigan (Home) and Maryland (Home)
– WKU: Purdue (Neutral) and SMU (Neutral)

 

The committee has a pattern of rewarding teams for scheduling tough OOC and overlooking bad losses in the face of quality wins."

Edited by HuskerActuary
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like a giant waffler on the topic of whether we want the likes of Michigan and Penn St. to keep winning.  With Michigan, if they beat Ohio St on Sunday, then I will pull for them to win out and have their RPI move into the Top 30.  if they lose to Ohio St., then to hell with them and they can lose out as far as I'm concerned.  As @royalfan and several of us have debated exhaustively, if Michigan loses out, that puts them firmly on the bubble and then we would certainly be competing against them and a handful of other school for a finite number of spots in the dance.  Having them win 1 or 2 more games while also losing 1 or 2 more games does nothing for us as it would prevent Michigan from reaching a Top 30 spot in the RPI while also allowing them to lock down a spot in the tourney and make one less available for the other bubble teams to grab.

 

Penn St. is a huge conundrum.  As they have jumped to #74 in the RPI, our loss to them on the road is now another Quadrant 1 loss and moves us to 0-7 in that Quadrant, which is obviously an eyesore.  On the flip side, we are 4-1 in Quadrant 2 and still don't have a loss against Q3 or Q4, which most bubble teams can't claim.  So, back to Penn St....they have two Q1 wins, already own a victory over us, and close out playing at Purdue, vs. Michigan, and against us to close out the year.  The scheduling gods did them a favor as they are super hot, entering the bubble mix and national conversation, and also have a distinct opportunity to vault themselves past us in the conversation prior to their final home game against us.  Think about it, if Penn St. runs off a 3 game stretch where they beat Ohio St, go to Purdue and win, and then beat Michigan, is there really any doubt they would have positioned themselves better than we have heading into next Sunday?  That would put them at 21-9 with 3 Q1 wins (2 on the road) and a win at home against the same Michigan team we beat.  I think that would trump our better record.  To put the icing on the cake here, even if Penn St. wins the next 2 games, their RPI still won't be high enough coming into the final game against us to have it qualify as a Q1 win for us.  So, what I'm trying to say, is that I am not going to be rooting for Penn St. against Purdue or Michigan because we have more to lose with Penn St. coming in here super hot with all those glamorous wins than we gain by beating another Q2 team at home.  AND....I really don't want to see Penn St. in the 5 seed where we would likely have to play them in back to back games.

 

Sorry for rambling!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm at the point where NU's resume is what it's gonna be at this point. It's not gonna change that much one way or the other. I'm most interested in what positions NU best for staying in NYC for a while. I think that's facing Michigan then probably OSU if they get past that first game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HuskerFever said:

Lundardi just updated his bubble watch:


Last Four In
Texas
UCLA
USC
St. Bonaventure


First Four Out
Nebraska
Washington
Syracuse
Baylor

15-11 (5-8)  and a worse RPI than us. Only reason Texas would be above us is Tier 1 wins. (10 loss Butler, 9 loss Oklahoma, 9 loss TCU, 9 loss Alabama - all Tier 1)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

15-11 (5-8)  and a worse RPI than us. Only reason Texas would be above us is Tier 1 wins. (10 loss Butler, 9 loss Oklahoma, 9 loss TCU, 9 loss Alabama - all Tier 1)

 

The Texas (that lost at home against Michigan) has three more tough road games: Oklahoma, KU and Kstate.  I am guessing 11 conferences losses will keep them out!

 

Keep on winning Huskers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As difficult as it is to feel any kind of sympathy for anything that is UT Athletics given that they have every advantage known to mankind in the college sports world - it's hard not to recognize that the Andrew Jones situation is extremely heart rending and inspiring.  This Longhorn team is dealing with a pretty tough situation and I believe that Lunardi is probably going to keep them in his bubble watches as long as humanly possible - and I don't blame him one bit for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The dude I am relying upon says we are in UNLESS we play ourselves out over the next three weeks.  He likes are chances.  He also confirms that all the blather taking place by the so called experts is just that...blather.  They are not in the room when the decision is made.  The metrics are great for stimulating conversation, but intangibles are still in play. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, khoock said:

Imagine how many of you on here would lose your f-ing minds if Nebraska had a solid record, played a real good schedule, and beat a handful of top teams and got passed on for a tourney bid for a team with a good record, no great wins to speak of, but passed the "eye test".

 

 

Right now Texas is certainly more deserving than Nebraska. They will need some wins, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, hhctony said:

 

Right now Texas is certainly more deserving than Nebraska. They will need some wins, though.

 

 

Yep, absolutely.

 

It's gonna be an uphill climb for them though:

 

Wed Feb 7 34 46 Kansas St. L, 67-64 63   Home 15-9 5-6 b.gif
Sat Feb 10 38 25 TCU L, 87-71 63   Away 15-10 5-7 a.gif
Mon Feb 12 44 33 Baylor L, 74-73 72 2OT Home 15-11 5-8 b.gif
Sat Feb 17   31 Oklahoma L, 80-75 73 32% Away   × a.gif
Wed Feb 21   46 Kansas St. L, 66-63 63 40% Away   × a.gif
Sat Feb 24   72 Oklahoma St. W, 70-64 66 71% Home   ×  
Mon Feb 26   14 Kansas L, 73-65 67 24% Away   × a.gif
Sat Mar 3   13 West Virginia L, 70-69 67 47% Home   × a.gif
Projected record: 17-14 7-11
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...