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hhctony

Nebraska on the Selection Committee Board

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I am hoping to do some more research on this with the new tiers for the Selection Committee this year, but as we speak, here is what our "resume" would look like. I'll try to keep this post as current as possible. Edited to show games through January 22. Nebraska currently 67 in RPI.

 

Tier 1 (0-5): Michigan State (27), Creighton (35), Kansas (7), Purdue (10), Ohio State (15). REMAINING: at Minnesota (75).

Tier 2 (4-3): St. Johns (81), UCF (57), Boston College (66), Minnesota (75), Northwestern (123), Penn State (135), Michigan (38). REMAINING: at Wisconsin (133), vs. Maryland (52).

Tier 3 (2-0): Long Beach State (167), Wisconsin (133). REMAINING: at Rutgers (179), vs. Iowa (150), at Illinois (172), vs. Indiana (91), vs. Penn State (135). 

Tier 4 (8-0): Eastern Illinois (277), North Texas (202), North Dakota (207), Marist (326), UTSA (276), Delaware State (351), Stetson (291), Illinois (172). REMAINING: vs. Rutgers (179)

 

Obviously, the tiers will fluctuate as the season continues to move on. Michigan getting in Tier 1 territory would be a nice bonus. And, of our 10 remaining games we only have four that are currently in Tier One or Tier Two. It will be interesting to see how the committee looks at your tier records this year. The good thing our team has now, is zero bad losses. It would be nice if we could keep it that way and win at Rutgers and at Illinois. I'm not overly concerned about losing to Ohio State (but, it sure would be a heck of a resume builder) because that's an easy one to overcome. 

 

 

Edited by hhctony

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2 minutes ago, cipsucks said:

I don't understand this tier stuff.  Minnesota is in both tier 1 and 2?  I'm guessing it's where you play the game.  There's a tier in my beer....

 

 

 

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75   
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

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Huskers in some First 4 and Next 4 outs still on bracketmatrix.  We are in most others considered and next 10 for those that do it.

 

One thing I find surprising is that Maryland is still in a few brackets and usually ahead of us in first and next 4 outs.  We’re going to finish ahead of them me thinks.  Top 4 isn’t out of the question with the schedule we have.  Top 5 is really doable.

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Also on thing we have what others don’t is no bad losses really.

 

One thing others have that we don’t is a more opportunities at good wins.  

 

We we need to take care of the bottom of the conference on the road.  Need wins @Rutgers and @Illinois.  Also a few Minny wins could put that game as a Tier 1 game on the road!

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27 minutes ago, hskr4life said:

Also on thing we have what others don’t is no bad losses really.

 

One thing others have that we don’t is a more opportunities at good wins.  

 

We we need to take care of the bottom of the conference on the road.  Need wins @Rutgers and @Illinois.  Also a few Minny wins could put that game as a Tier 1 game on the road!

 

St John's is currently 9-10 (0-8). There is a good chance they finish the season 2-9, which would put them at 11-19 for the season. They beat Nebraska 79-56. As the season progresses, I believe that loss will continue to look worse.

 

Realistically, Nebraska needs to finish the season 7-2 and show well at the Big Ten tournament to have a shot at the NCAA tournament.

 

Edited by Nebrasketballer

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16 minutes ago, Nebrasketballer said:

 

St John's is currently 9-10 (0-8). There is a good chance they finish the season 2-9, which would put them at 11-19 for the season. They beat Nebraska 79-56. As the season progresses, I believe that loss will continue to look worse.

 

Realistically, Nebraska needs to finish the season 7-2 and show well at the Big Ten tournament to have a shot at the NCAA tournament.

 

 

St. John's certainly is a quandary. They need to win some games. Also, we played them with their second best player who is out for the season with injury. I don't know if that matters to the committee, but they were in the top-20 in the RPI when he went out. I still like Nebraska's number is 21 and there are a bunch of ways to get to 21.

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So, people have been saying it's not such a good thing that we have already played all of the top Big Ten teams and have only lower-tier teams left to play.  The logic is that we have no more chances for major resume-improving wins in the regular season.

 

Here's how that might not be such a bad thing, but stars might have to align a little bit.

 

If I could influence the writing of the season script a bit, taking into consideration probable wins/losses, I'm hoping for something like the following:

 

If we only win 7 more regular season games, this gets us to 21-10 (12-6).  Have to avoid bad losses, so we'd need to beat Rutgers x 2, Iowa, and on the road at Illinois. All of this is doable.

 

IF that's how it happens, I'm hoping we get a #5 seed in the BTT.  Why 5 seed?  Five seed plays the winner of the 12/13 game (likely Iowa, Illinois or Rutgers.) That winner would have 1-day rest before facing us, of course.  A win there gets us to 22 wins.  We'd follow that with an RPI-improving game against one of the top 4 seeds.  A loss there cannot hurt us. A win could improve our seed in the NCAA tourney.  And we'd be facing off against the lowest of the top 4 seeds (at this point, looking like Michigan) so a more winnable game than if we were the 6 seed facing the 11 seed followed by the 3 seed.

 

If a 12-6 conference record gets us into the 4th seed, we lose that chance at an extra win to get to 22 and would likely face a 5 seed playing to reach the dance.

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49 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, people have been saying it's not such a good thing that we have already played all of the top Big Ten teams and have only lower-tier teams left to play.  The logic is that we have no more chances for major resume-improving wins in the regular season.

 

Here's how that might not be such a bad thing, but stars might have to align a little bit.

 

If I could influence the writing of the season script a bit, taking into consideration probable wins/losses, I'm hoping for something like the following:

 

If we only win 7 more regular season games, this gets us to 21-10 (12-6).  Have to avoid bad losses, so we'd need to beat Rutgers x 2, Iowa, and on the road at Illinois. All of this is doable.

 

IF that's how it happens, I'm hoping we get a #5 seed in the BTT.  Why 5 seed?  Five seed plays the winner of the 12/13 game (likely Iowa, Illinois or Rutgers.) That winner would have 1-day rest before facing us, of course.  A win there gets us to 22 wins.  We'd follow that with an RPI-improving game against one of the top 4 seeds.  A loss there cannot hurt us. A win could improve our seed in the NCAA tourney.  And we'd be facing off against the lowest of the top 4 seeds (at this point, looking like Michigan) so a more winnable game than if we were the 6 seed facing the 11 seed followed by the 3 seed.

 

If a 12-6 conference record gets us into the 4th seed, we lose that chance at an extra win to get to 22 and would likely face a 5 seed playing to reach the dance.

Has a 6-loss B1G team (12-6 new B1G, 10-6 old B1G) ever been left out of the dance? I'd venture to guess not.

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1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

So, people have been saying it's not such a good thing that we have already played all of the top Big Ten teams and have only lower-tier teams left to play.  The logic is that we have no more chances for major resume-improving wins in the regular season.

 

Here's how that might not be such a bad thing, but stars might have to align a little bit.

 

If I could influence the writing of the season script a bit, taking into consideration probable wins/losses, I'm hoping for something like the following:

 

If we only win 7 more regular season games, this gets us to 21-10 (12-6).  Have to avoid bad losses, so we'd need to beat Rutgers x 2, Iowa, and on the road at Illinois. All of this is doable.

 

IF that's how it happens, I'm hoping we get a #5 seed in the BTT.  Why 5 seed?  Five seed plays the winner of the 12/13 game (likely Iowa, Illinois or Rutgers.) That winner would have 1-day rest before facing us, of course.  A win there gets us to 22 wins.  We'd follow that with an RPI-improving game against one of the top 4 seeds.  A loss there cannot hurt us. A win could improve our seed in the NCAA tourney.  And we'd be facing off against the lowest of the top 4 seeds (at this point, looking like Michigan) so a more winnable game than if we were the 6 seed facing the 11 seed followed by the 3 seed.

 

If a 12-6 conference record gets us into the 4th seed, we lose that chance at an extra win to get to 22 and would likely face a 5 seed playing to reach the dance.

I wouldn’t mind if it somehow worked out that we got another crack at Ohio St. in the Big Ten tournament. That game last night left a bad taste in my mouth knowing how close we were to winning that game.

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2 hours ago, Nebrasketballer said:

 

St John's is currently 9-10 (0-8). There is a good chance they finish the season 2-9, which would put them at 11-19 for the season. They beat Nebraska 79-56. As the season progresses, I believe that loss will continue to look worse.

 

Realistically, Nebraska needs to finish the season 7-2 and show well at the Big Ten tournament to have a shot at the NCAA tournament.

 

 

They lost a player or two as well.  As much as they always say that it's an "entire body of work" they also look at when and who your losses are to as well.  Our two worst losses right now were within the first month of the season and that was with a young and inexperienced team that we had.  Overall since those two losses, our overall body of work is much much better and the eye test should tell everyone that.  They always are referring to that"eye test."  So as bad as that might look on paper at the end of the year, the eye test will tell you otherwise.  A bad loss in the first true road game for a team that is trying to gel and against one of the top RPI conferences in basketball isn't like losing a road game at Rhode Island, or anything like that.

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23 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Has a 6-loss B1G team (12-6 new B1G, 10-6 old B1G) ever been left out of the dance? I'd venture to guess not.

 

They have not.  In other power conferences it has happened, but a 12-6 B1G team has never been left out.

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A few things I'd add.

 

1. We need lay back on the "bad loss" thing to any team on the road in the Big Ten. Would it be great to win at Rutgers and Illinois? Darn straight. But, let's remember that Rutgers beat Seton Hall and their six league losses are as follows: Michigan State (twice), @ Minnesota, @ Purdue, @ Michigan and vs. Ohio State. Just throwing it out there. Also, we beat Illinois by 1 at home, so I reckon if you lose to them in Champaign it wouldn't be a huge surprise. That said, if we want to dance, we need to win some.

 

2. Our best scenario is to NOT LOSE at home. We need to beat both Indiana and Maryland (who will be compared to us on the big board) and for sure the other three games (Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers). In my mind, the home games are more non-negotiable than the road games. Any two road games would be fine, to be honest. Winning on the road in conference play is a difficult task.

 

3. I still think our road to the NCAAs is 21 wins (in any combination). Which, to me, means if we win all of our home games and even just one road game down the stretch but get one at MSG we could be in really good shape.

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20 minutes ago, hhctony said:

1. We need lay back on the "bad loss" thing to any team on the road in the Big Ten. Would it be great to win at Rutgers and Illinois? Darn straight. But, let's remember that Rutgers beat Seton Hall and their six league losses are as follows: Michigan State (twice), @ Minnesota, @ Purdue, @ Michigan and vs. Ohio State. Just throwing it out there.

I watched a bunch of that Seton Hall/Rutgers game. That gym was sold out and frenzied. That won't be what we will be facing tomorrow. There are...how do I put this...a lot of tickets available tomorrow. Rutgers beat us last year, so they certainly could again tomorrow, but we won't be facing a hostile environment at all. If NU shows up with any sort of urgency, they *should* win this thing, but Rutgers plays hard, so we won't be able to just roll the ball out there and win.

Edited by uneblinstu

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59 minutes ago, The Polish Rifle said:

Has a 6-loss B1G team (12-6 new B1G, 10-6 old B1G) ever been left out of the dance? I'd venture to guess not.

 

All I know is actuaries are crazy good at math and I learned a long time ago not to challenge math guys at issues involving, well, math.

 

So, when Husker Actuary says he's run the numbers and it'll take maybe even 23 wins to get in, well, I just know the fewer Ls we put up from here on in, the better.

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42 minutes ago, hhctony said:

A few things I'd add.

 

1. We need lay back on the "bad loss" thing to any team on the road in the Big Ten. Would it be great to win at Rutgers and Illinois? Darn straight. But, let's remember that Rutgers beat Seton Hall and their six league losses are as follows: Michigan State (twice), @ Minnesota, @ Purdue, @ Michigan and vs. Ohio State. Just throwing it out there. Also, we beat Illinois by 1 at home, so I reckon if you lose to them in Champaign it wouldn't be a huge surprise. That said, if we want to dance, we need to win some.

 

2. Our best scenario is to NOT LOSE at home. We need to beat both Indiana and Maryland (who will be compared to us on the big board) and for sure the other three games (Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers). In my mind, the home games are more non-negotiable than the road games. Any two road games would be fine, to be honest. Winning on the road in conference play is a difficult task.

 

3. I still think our road to the NCAAs is 21 wins (in any combination). Which, to me, means if we win all of our home games and even just one road game down the stretch but get one at MSG we could be in really good shape.

 

One thing being overlooked is the BIG10 power. If we can get to 22 wins including conference tourney and a top 5 finish in regular season I like our chances. I think the committee will not hose the BIG10 with only 4 bids if you have a 22 win team at #5. Just get to that number however and see what happens is what I am hoping for.

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I agree, Norm, on leave-computing-to-the-math-genius concept.  But we now have updated information.

Here's what Husker Actuary wrote on January 3:

 

"Guys, our SOS is going to drag us down if we end up around the 20 win mark. Don't you remember feeling great when the conference schedules were released saying that we got a pretty good deal out of it? The flip side of that is needing more wins (alongside our non-conference SOS which is also not good). I think 22 wins is necessary to feel decent about chances, 23 wins would be a lock. 21 = out."

 

Since January 3, the Huskers beat Wisconsin and #23 Michigan and played #13 Ohio St. to a toss-up with a minute to go on the road.  Here's guessing Husker Actuary did not make such assumptions in doing the math on January 3.

So . . . it would be nice to see Husker Actuary run the numbers again using updated information, provide an updated assessment, and show his calculations.  

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3 minutes ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

One thing being overlooked is the BIG10 power. If we can get to 22 wins including conference tourney and a top 5 finish in regular season I like our chances. I think the committee will not hose the BIG10 with only 4 bids if you have a 22 win team at #5. Just get to that number however and see what happens is what I am hoping for.

 

See I'm on the flip side of this. I actually do think the committee will leave a 22 win Big Ten team out if there's a team from another conference with a couple less total wins but wins over higher quality opponents. A team like UCLA has a tough remaining schedule and might only get to 19 or 20 wins but I think they'd get in over us even at the 22 win mark just with their current resume. The committee loves them some non con wins.

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