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hhcdimes

Scouting Wisconsin

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24 minutes ago, HB said:

Surprised at the line.   1.5 to 2 most places.    Vegas still doesn't think much of our team.   Huge game tonight.   Have to find a way to win this one. 

 

Isn’t home court worth like 2-3 points.  So Vegas is saying on a neutral court we would be dogs?

 

Man... I know we’re not world beaters, but what is Vegas thinking?  We’re talking about a team who lost to Rutgers.  We’re also like 10-5 ATS this year.  

 

#BetTheSkers

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1 hour ago, hhcdimes said:

 

So....15? :lol:

 

Sure, but if it's going to be *only* 15 remaining games that means 0-1 in the BTT.  To get to over .500 in those 15 means we must go 8-6 minimum in the 14 regular season games.  KenPom has us at 6-8 or 7-7 at best in those.

 

One should avoid including conference tournament games in one's W-L total when making predictions because winning or losing them affects your total number of games played and makes predictions difficult at best.

 

What @TimSmiles should have said instead is he thinks we need to go 8-6 the rest of the regular season at a minimum for coach to keep his job.  (I'm not necessarily agreeing with his assessment on that, BTW)

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Just now, hskr4life said:

 

Isn’t home court worth like 2-3 points.  So Vegas is saying on a neutral court we would be dogs?

 

Man... I know we’re not world beaters, but what is Vegas thinking?  We’re talking about a team who lost to Rutgers.  We’re also like 10-5 ATS this year.  

 

#BetTheSkers

 

Rutgers is not exactly horrible.  Pikiell is a good coach and Corey Sanders is pretty dang good!

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3 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

Rutgers is not exactly horrible.  Pikiell is a good coach and Corey Sanders is pretty dang good!

 

Oh I know.  That games not a gimmme for anyone.  However, they are not better than us.  They were also 0-3 in the conference heading into that game.  My point that I’m trying to get at is that I just don’t think we should be a dog on a neutral court to Wisco at this point.

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It is a huge game, indeed. In 11 hours, we'll have one of two very different narratives out there, no matter the unreasonableness of both: 

  • this is a team headed for something special OR
  • same ol', same ol' — Fire Miles!

 

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6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I didn't really fix it so much as I spruced it up for you a bit.

 

6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

I didn't really fix it so much as I spruced it up for you a bit.

 

Just win and advance, baby.  

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Nobody blows Wisconsin out (except Ohio State apparently) home or away.  They did take care of a much-better-than-us Penn State team on the road earlier too.

 

The Vegas spread shouldn't be surprising to anyone:

 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Fri Nov 10 31 343 South Carolina St. W, 85-50 70   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 12 31 186 Yale W, 89-61 72   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 16 26 21 Xavier L, 80-70 69   Home 2-1   a.gif
Mon Nov 20 31 36 Baylor L, 70-65 63   Neutral 2-2   a.gif
Tue Nov 21 32 46 UCLA L, 72-70 70   Neutral 2-3   a.gif
Fri Nov 24 32 202 Milwaukee W, 71-49 56   Home 3-3    
Mon Nov 27 31 3 Virginia L, 49-37 57   Away 3-4   a.gif
Sat Dec 2 32 33 Ohio St. L, 83-58 63   Home 3-5 0-1 b.gif
Mon Dec 4 47 41 Penn St. W, 64-63 66   Away 4-5 1-1 a.gif
Wed Dec 6 47 85 Temple L, 59-55 62   Away 4-6   b.gif
Sat Dec 9 48 45 Marquette L, 82-63 63   Home 4-7   b.gif
Wed Dec 13 60 58 Western Kentucky W, 81-80 69   Home 5-7   b.gif
Sat Dec 23 68 307 Green Bay W, 81-60 67   Home 6-7    
Wed Dec 27 64 346 Chicago St. W, 82-70 67   Home 7-7    
Sat Dec 30 72 303 UMass Lowell W, 82-53 60   Home 8-7    
Tue Jan 2 70 91 Indiana W, 71-61 60   Home 9-7 2-1  
Fri Jan 5 70 123 Rutgers L, 64-60 61   Away 9-8 2-2 b.gif

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22 minutes ago, 49r said:

Nobody blows Wisconsin out (except Ohio State apparently) home or away.

 

You missed Marquette beating them down at home and joining #ClubGettingTeethKickedInByInStateBigEastTeam

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36 minutes ago, 49r said:

Nobody blows Wisconsin out (except Ohio State apparently) home or away.  They did take care of a much-better-than-us Penn State team on the road earlier too.

 

The Vegas spread shouldn't be surprising to anyone:

 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Fri Nov 10 31 343 South Carolina St. W, 85-50 70   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 12 31 186 Yale W, 89-61 72   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 16 26 21 Xavier L, 80-70 69   Home 2-1   a.gif
Mon Nov 20 31 36 Baylor L, 70-65 63   Neutral 2-2   a.gif
Tue Nov 21 32 46 UCLA L, 72-70 70   Neutral 2-3   a.gif
Fri Nov 24 32 202 Milwaukee W, 71-49 56   Home 3-3    
Mon Nov 27 31 3 Virginia L, 49-37 57   Away 3-4   a.gif
Sat Dec 2 32 33 Ohio St. L, 83-58 63   Home 3-5 0-1 b.gif
Mon Dec 4 47 41 Penn St. W, 64-63 66   Away 4-5 1-1 a.gif
Wed Dec 6 47 85 Temple L, 59-55 62   Away 4-6   b.gif
Sat Dec 9 48 45 Marquette L, 82-63 63   Home 4-7   b.gif
Wed Dec 13 60 58 Western Kentucky W, 81-80 69   Home 5-7   b.gif
Sat Dec 23 68 307 Green Bay W, 81-60 67   Home 6-7    
Wed Dec 27 64 346 Chicago St. W, 82-70 67   Home 7-7    
Sat Dec 30 72 303 UMass Lowell W, 82-53 60   Home 8-7    
Tue Jan 2 70 91 Indiana W, 71-61 60   Home 9-7 2-1  
Fri Jan 5 70 123 Rutgers L, 64-60 61   Away 9-8 2-2 b.gif

 

You're probably right.   I was just figuring it would be 3-5 vs. 1-2.  But I am a rank amateur, and Vegas most decidedly isn't. 

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45 minutes ago, jayschool said:

It is a huge game, indeed. In 11 hours, we'll have one of two very different narratives out there, no matter the unreasonableness of both: 

  • this is a team headed for something special OR
  • same ol', same ol' — Fire Miles!

 

 

Isn't this after every win and loss?  :lol:

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9 minutes ago, HB said:

 

You're probably right.   I was just figuring it would be 3-5 vs. 1-2.  But I am a rank amateur, and Vegas most decidedly isn't. 

 

It was an open of about 2.5 and has gone down to 1.5.  Vegas believes in us to a point. The people that bet there are the ones off the bandwagon.

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Just now, hhcdimes said:

 

It was an open of about 2.5 and has gone down to 1.5.  Vegas believes in us to a point. The people that bet there are the ones off the bandwagon.

 

This is surprising as well to see the money going toward the wrong red team.  However, with a line that small, it's more of a toss up than anything.

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1 hour ago, 49r said:

Nobody blows Wisconsin out (except Ohio State apparently) home or away.  They did take care of a much-better-than-us Penn State team on the road earlier too.

 

The Vegas spread shouldn't be surprising to anyone:

 

Game Plan | Opponent Tracker

Date Rk Opponent Result     Location Record Conf  
Fri Nov 10 31 343 South Carolina St. W, 85-50 70   Home 1-0    
Sun Nov 12 31 186 Yale W, 89-61 72   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 16 26 21 Xavier L, 80-70 69   Home 2-1   a.gif
Mon Nov 20 31 36 Baylor L, 70-65 63   Neutral 2-2   a.gif
Tue Nov 21 32 46 UCLA L, 72-70 70   Neutral 2-3   a.gif
Fri Nov 24 32 202 Milwaukee W, 71-49 56   Home 3-3    
Mon Nov 27 31 3 Virginia L, 49-37 57   Away 3-4   a.gif
Sat Dec 2 32 33 Ohio St. L, 83-58 63   Home 3-5 0-1 b.gif
Mon Dec 4 47 41 Penn St. W, 64-63 66   Away 4-5 1-1 a.gif
Wed Dec 6 47 85 Temple L, 59-55 62   Away 4-6   b.gif
Sat Dec 9 48 45 Marquette L, 82-63 63   Home 4-7   b.gif
Wed Dec 13 60 58 Western Kentucky W, 81-80 69   Home 5-7   b.gif
Sat Dec 23 68 307 Green Bay W, 81-60 67   Home 6-7    
Wed Dec 27 64 346 Chicago St. W, 82-70 67   Home 7-7    
Sat Dec 30 72 303 UMass Lowell W, 82-53 60   Home 8-7    
Tue Jan 2 70 91 Indiana W, 71-61 60   Home 9-7 2-1  
Fri Jan 5 70 123 Rutgers L, 64-60 61   Away 9-8 2-2 b.gif

They don't really get blown out and they took care of a lot of their patsies by 25-30 points too.   We hovered in that 10-20 point mark. 

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I remember watching that W. Kentucky game....they should have lost.

W. Kentucky ran a trapping 1-3-1 that game them fits. I wonder if we'll throw some at them other than in emergency situations.

 

This feels like a game where we throw McVeigh out there for a few.

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Just did a quick glance at Wisconsin's season stats, it looks like they may have some serious depth issues.

 

Their presumptive starter at PG going into the season, D'Mtrick Trice, played 10 games and was injured and has been out ever since.  Kobe King, a freshman shooting guard who was getting 19 min/game, was also hurt and has also been out since game 10.  Alex Illikainen, 4-star forward whom we recruited and many around here wanted (but, check the thread, I was never very high on) sees spot minutes at best.

 

Happ is very good, of course.  After him, they have true freshman pg/sg Brad Davison, whom we also tried to recruit (and he was a kid I liked), true freshman F Aleem Ford, sophomore SG Brevin Pritzl, and junior SG Khalil Iverson.  So, senior, junior, sophomore, and two freshmen in their starting lineup.  By size, it's 6'3", 6'3", 6'5", 6'8", and 6'10".

 

After the starters, though, and considering the injuries, they drop off pretty quickly.

 

They have two other freshmen who are getting double figure minutes.  Neither played the first part of the season and I'm guessing both were slated for redshirts until the injuries and failures to launch noted above.  Walt McGrory, 6'3" SG, is one of them. He's played in only the last 6 games and hasn't done much in any of them except be on the floor for 10 minutes.  Nate Reuvers, 6'10" with 3-point range, is the other.  He sat out the first 5 games and has stepped in and given them decent productivity in 14.5 min/game.

 

And that's pretty much their depth.  Illikainen really doesn't play.  The big man, Van Vliet, plays minimally.  So, they go about 7 deep, of which 4 are freshmen.  And they might be getting a little desperate.  Aaron Moesch, 6'8" senior, looks like a walk-on to me.  He played 20 minutes total in the first 12 games but, in their last 2 games, logged 25 against Indiana and 17 against Rutgers, scoring 2 points in each contest.

 

But they have Happ.  And he's really good.

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