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1 hour ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Gotcha. They all scare me, the Big Ten is a grind. That 3 games in 6 day stretch is going to be rough.... OSU on the 22nd, Rutgers on the 24th, and then Iowa at home on the 27th.

and at Wisconsin on the 29th... That makes 4 in 8.

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We need Michigan to get back into the top 30 for that to count as a tier 1 win.

 

We still have a long way to go but the Ohio St win could really help us (similar to winning at MSU the last time we went dancing).

 

Even after last night's win our expected record didn't change.b2bd2452a4b6378f69cd4b967646b454.jpg5801254a99c68ea3508741b6db98224c.jpg

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This upcoming 4 game stretch isn't all that dissimilar to what Michigan just finished. They had 4 games in 9 days, but their competition was a lot higher than NU's will be. I'll be curious to see what NU looks like when they get to Wisconsin.

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3 minutes ago, uneblinstu said:

This upcoming 4 game stretch isn't all that dissimilar to what Michigan just finished. They had 4 games in 9 days, but their competition was a lot higher than NU's will be. I'll be curious to see what NU looks like when they get to Wisconsin.

After seeing both Wisconsin and Illinois, Wisconsin looks like the more winnable game on the road even though they both could be wins.  Wisconsin looks like one of the worse teams in the B1G this year.  Take away Happ and they don't have much else.

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Realtime RPI has us winning all the rest of our home games and losing all the rest of our away games.

 

I'm fine with winning out at home.  We MUST beat Rutgers on the road and maybe get one more road win besides.  

 

And if that other road win is against Ohio State, we're in like Flynn.

Edited by Norm Peterson

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2 minutes ago, bigred4 said:

After seeing both Wisconsin and Illinois, Wisconsin looks like the more winnable game on the road even though they both could be wins.  Wisconsin looks like one of the worse teams in the B1G this year.  Take away Happ and they don't have much else.

We'll see. They've been on the road a ton. They host Illinois tonight. They've played three straight road games and have two after tonight. We're fortunate our next four include Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin, even if 3 of them are on the road, and not Purdue, @MSU, Maryland and @NU. It won't be easy, but it is a big opportunity for the Huskers.

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9 minutes ago, northwillriseagain said:

Realistically, this team could go anywhere from 16-15 to 23-8.

 

RPI Forecast has it somewhere in between 17 and 20 wins:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
24-7 33.3 0.03%
23-8 39.7 0.32%
22-9 49.1 1.77%
21-10 59.2 6.79%
20-11 71.5 16.78%
19-12 86.7 24.24%
18-13 104.2 25.14%
17-14 123.7 16.85%
16-15 144.1 6.36%
15-16 164.0 1.57%
14-17 179.1 0.14%

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1 hour ago, Ron Mexico said:

One of the key things we are missing on our resume is a significant road win. Go 7-3 down the stretch, which is very realistic, with a win over tOSU and we are in with just 1 win in the BIG Tournament to cement us in.

 

If we go 7-3 with a win over OSU we are in, done deal even with a one and one in the tourney

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I'm trying to convince myself that 7-3 and 1 win in tourney gets NU to NCAA tourney. But 3 losses will be to teams that NU should finish above in conference standings. Losses to PSU, Maryland Minnesota or Indiana could very well be against teams that NU is competing against for conference seeding and possible spot on tourney bubble. So any losses against them hurt. Rutgers x 2, Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa I feel are games that if NU loses will be bad mark on the resume'. So any losses against them hurt. The Huskers are in a very touchy situation. They could win every game they have remaining but also face a challenge in every game left. I would definitely take a 7-3 finish though. And as I browse through the many projected brackets I find it amazing that NU is 2 games clear of Minnesota in league standings and has a win over the Gophers. Both teams are 14-7 overall and Nebraska is 63 in RPI while Minnesota is 68. But Minnesota is listed in a few brackets and is usually mentioned in the next 8-10 out.

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1 hour ago, Art Vandalay said:

 

If we go 7-3 with a win over OSU we are in, done deal even with a one and one in the tourney

Not picking on just you, but I think people are overvaluing "big" wins like what OSU would be. We need to target a certain number of wins, but certain games.  Not losing to teams we should beat is nearly as good in the committee's eyes as big wins themselves. 

 

I'm still in the camp that we need 23 wins to feel safe, 22 wins we'd be feeling unsure/uneasy but hopefully in, 21 wins not enough even if we finish in the top 4 of the conference.

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29 minutes ago, rr52 said:

I'm trying to convince myself that 7-3 and 1 win in tourney gets NU to NCAA tourney. But 3 losses will be to teams that NU should finish above in conference standings. Losses to PSU, Maryland Minnesota or Indiana could very well be against teams that NU is competing against for conference seeding and possible spot on tourney bubble. So any losses against them hurt. Rutgers x 2, Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa I feel are games that if NU loses will be bad mark on the resume'. So any losses against them hurt. The Huskers are in a very touchy situation. They could win every game they have remaining but also face a challenge in every game left. I would definitely take a 7-3 finish though. And as I browse through the many projected brackets I find it amazing that NU is 2 games clear of Minnesota in league standings and has a win over the Gophers. Both teams are 14-7 overall and Nebraska is 63 in RPI while Minnesota is 68. But Minnesota is listed in a few brackets and is usually mentioned in the next 8-10 out.

 

I think its the emphasis on road and neutral games. Minnesota's road win at Providence as well as their neutral court win against Alabama are carrying more weight than our good wins at home considering that both of us have pretty similar losses. I know we beat them soundly, but considering our quality wins are all at home aren't helping us. Ohio State win on the road would be huge.

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3 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

Not picking on just you, but I think people are overvaluing "big" wins like what OSU would be. We need to target a certain number of wins, but certain games.  Not losing to teams we should beat is nearly as good in the committee's eyes as big wins themselves. 

 

I'm still in the camp that we need 23 wins to feel safe, 22 wins we'd be feeling unsure/uneasy but hopefully in, 21 wins not enough even if we finish in the top 4 of the conference.

 

image.png

 

After last night's win, Teamrankings says 22 wins is about a 50/50 chance and 23 is in. So pretty much right in line with what you're saying.

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I will say that I don't think that this team is a one and done on tournament weekend either.  I think we have the horses this year to actually complete and not get tired after playing so many games in so many days.  Now as much as I would love getting a double bye, I think this team could get an extra win if we just get the single bye.  However, we also have the horses to win the whole damn thing as well so let's just go ahead and do that.  

 

But first.... Ohio State!

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How it looks to me:  11-7 can get Nebraska in, if Nebraska is the fifth and last Big Ten team in the field.  I don't think an 11-7 Nebraska makes it if it means the Big Ten gets six bids.  That doesn't mean that if they go 11-7 and finish fifth that they are in - Maryland could go 10-8 and definitely be in, Penn State or Minnesota could go 11-7 and edge us out on the bubble.  This is assuming that Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan are in regardless - Michigan would also definitely be in at 11-7 or 10-8.

 

Maryland's double plays in conference are Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State, and they have a non-conference win vs. Butler.  Minnesota's double plays are Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa.  Penn State's double plays are Maryland, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State, and Northwestern.

 

Maryland has 4 losses in conference so they can afford to lose 4 more; their road games are @ Purdue, @ Penn State, @ Northwestern, @ Nebraska, and @ Indiana, while their home games are against Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Rutgers.  They'll probably be favored in 5 out of 6 at home and 2 out of 5 on the road.

 

Penn State can lose 3 more and be on the bubble, their road games are @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern, and @ Illinois, with home games with Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland, Iowa, and Rutgers.  Their chances of losing only 3 more - well, not very likely.   Minnesota could lose 2 more, their road games are @ Purdue, @ Michigan, @ Iowa, @ Indiana, @ Wisconsin, with home games against Michigan State, Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa.  The way they've been playing, I don't think you need to worry about them.

 

Indiana (4-3 after tonight) would have to go 12-6 to get in, and I don't see that - road games @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Illinois, @ Rutgers have some winnable games, but some tough ones at home with Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers.  Not very likely.   Northwestern can lose 2 more and be on the bubble, with Michigan State, @ Michigan, Michigan, @ Maryland, Maryland, Penn State, @ Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Wisconsin, Wisconsin, and @ Rutgers that probably won't happen.  Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois, and Iowa are pretty much eliminated at this point.

 

So, if we manage to go 11-7, there's a good chance we're in if Maryland only goes 9-9.  Otherwise I don't see the committee taking a sixth Big Ten team unless we're 12-6 and Maryland and Michigan are 10-8 or better.

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