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10 hours ago, hskr4life said:

 

 

Wait, wait, wait,.  Your trying to tell me a Big 10 team who goes 15-3 in conference would need a deep tourney run?  And if we go 13-5 we’re out?

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

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9 minutes ago, Donkey said:

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.  So far we don't have a win against a team that will likely be in the Tournament, and we might only have two more games against teams that will make it (@ Ohio State, Michigan; I wouldn't count on Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, or Penn State to make it from how their seasons are trending.)  So conceivably we could be 12-6, 21-10 overall going into the Big Ten tournament with a 1-5 or 0-6 record against the NCAA field, which would probably not get us in without an upset win in the conference tournament.  And to go 12-6 they can only sweep the four games they should win (Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State) and only slip up three times in all of the toss up games (Michigan, Maryland, @ Penn State, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Rutgers, @ Minnesota).

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33 minutes ago, Donkey said:

 

We have 2 losses already. 2 additional losses would be 14-4; we would be in. 13-5 would require BIG semifinal or better (if we are a top 4 seed that means 1 win, 5 seed would mean 2 wins). 12-6 bubble. 11-7 NIT. 

 

Assuming only 4-5 BIG schools go dancing (right now 4 are projected), Purdue, MSU, and tOSU would be in today. That leaves us, Michigan, and Maryland vying for the 4 and, possibly, 5 spot. 

 

This makes more sense.  Thanks for the clarification.  I didn’t know you were talking the rest of the way out.

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21 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.  So far we don't have a win against a team that will likely be in the Tournament, and we might only have two more games against teams that will make it (@ Ohio State, Michigan; I wouldn't count on Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, or Penn State to make it from how their seasons are trending.)  So conceivably we could be 12-6, 21-10 overall going into the Big Ten tournament with a 1-5 or 0-6 record against the NCAA field, which would probably not get us in without an upset win in the conference tournament.  And to go 12-6 they can only sweep the four games they should win (Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State) and only slip up three times in all of the toss up games (Michigan, Maryland, @ Penn State, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Rutgers, @ Minnesota).

 

You do realize that the NCAA Selection Committee announced a new process for selecting school, correct?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

 

Right now we are weak in Column 1. We simply need to limit losses and avoid bad losses. And RPI is not favorable for the BIG. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/7

Edited by Donkey

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1 minute ago, Donkey said:

 

You do realize that the NCAA Selection Committee announced a new process for selecting school, correct?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

 

Right now we are weak in Column 1. We simply need to limit losses and avoid bad losses. 

 

Yes.  But I'm saying that when the rubber hits the road they would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out.

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1 hour ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

Yes.  But I'm saying that when the rubber hits the road they would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out.

 

Absolutely agree, I have a hard time not thinking we would be in at 12-6 and 11 wins gets us on the bubble with the tourney to go. The BIG10 still has clout with the committe even in a down year.

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21 hours ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

The committee would never leave a 13-5 Big Ten team out, no matter how poor of a year the conference had.  A 12-6 team is another matter, if we somehow did manage to go 12-6 we'd still be on the bubble.

 

As a sanity check, here's a look at how the top three Big Ten teams have played out in the last few years:

 

2016-2017: (1) 14-4, (2) 12-6, (3) 12-6

2015-2016: (1) 15-3, (2) 13-5, (3) 12-6

2014-2015: (1) 16-2, (2) 14-4, (3) 12-6

2013-2014: (1) 15-3, (2) 12-6, (3) 12-6

2012-2013: (1) 14-4, (2) 13-5, (3) 13-5

 

I'm with you, @Dead Dog Alley. A 13-5 record historically places you in the top 2 or 3, and a 12-6 record puts you in the top 3. I don't care what method a committee uses to select teams, there will be at least 3 teams selected out of the Big Ten even on a down year.

 

And a reality check says that a minimum 13-5 conference record has only occurred to 9 Big Ten teams over the last 5 years (minimum 12-6 has occurred to 22 teams in the last 5 years).

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