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Norm Peterson

Tell me what the statisticians say our final record will be now!

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41 minutes ago, 49r said:

We've more than doubled our chance of winning out:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
23-8 43.5 13.38%
22-9 54.2 38.71%
21-10 66.2 36.41%
20-11 81.5 11.49%

 

2-18 Illinois (171.6) B10 A 0-0   46% -1.1
2-20 Indiana (111.6) B10 H 0-0   60% 2.7
2-25 Penn St. (73.5) B10 H 0-0   49% -0.2

 

Well, there is now a 100% chance that we will NOT lose our last 4 regular season games.  I cannot believe that his computer EVER thought that the likelihood of us losing the last 4 was greater than the likelihood that we'd win the last 4.  Shows his computer needs tweaked.

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15 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Well, there is now a 100% chance that we will NOT lose our last 4 regular season games.  I cannot believe that his computer EVER thought that the likelihood of us losing the last 4 was greater than the likelihood that we'd win the last 4.  Shows his computer needs tweaked.

 

It was essentially the same low odds that we would win out or lose out.  

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2 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Well, there is now a 100% chance that we will NOT lose our last 4 regular season games.  I cannot believe that his computer EVER thought that the likelihood of us losing the last 4 was greater than the likelihood that we'd win the last 4.  Shows his computer needs tweaked.

 

1 hour ago, hhcdimes said:

 

It was essentially the same low odds that we would win out or lose out.  

 

Probability of multiple events (games) occurring in succession with the same outcome (a Nebrasketball win) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each individual event.  So when you are calculating the probability of getting the same outcome four times, it's going to get low.  And when your odds of winning each game are ~50%, odds of winning/losing four straight approach one another.

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1 hour ago, MitchMcGaryMunchies said:

 

 

Probability of multiple events (games) occurring in succession with the same outcome (a Nebrasketball win) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each individual event.  So when you are calculating the probability of getting the same outcome four times, it's going to get low.  And when your odds of winning each game are ~50%, odds of winning/losing four straight approach one another.

 

Math is hard.:mellow:

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12 hours ago, MitchMcGaryMunchies said:

Probability of multiple events (games) occurring in succession with the same outcome (a Nebrasketball win) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each individual event.  So when you are calculating the probability of getting the same outcome four times, it's going to get low.  And when your odds of winning each game are ~50%, odds of winning/losing four straight approach one another.

 

Which tells me that the computer-projected odds for each game were off.  Because there's no way in hell it was equally likely that we'd lose all 4 remaining games as that we'd win them all.  Not when 3 of the 4 were home games and the lone road game is against a team at the bottom of the standings.

 

Not saying that we definitely will win all 4, but even the most casual basketball observer could tell you that it was far more likely we'd win all 4 than lose all 4.  So, how is this very sophisticated computer system so clearly off if it doesn't need tweaked?

 

I mean, look at those last 4 games and explain to me how it's more probable that we'd lose them all than win them all.

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On 2/15/2018 at 7:46 AM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Which tells me that the computer-projected odds for each game were off.  Because there's no way in hell it was equally likely that we'd lose all 4 remaining games as that we'd win them all.  Not when 3 of the 4 were home games and the lone road game is against a team at the bottom of the standings.

 

Not saying that we definitely will win all 4, but even the most casual basketball observer could tell you that it was far more likely we'd win all 4 than lose all 4.  So, how is this very sophisticated computer system so clearly off if it doesn't need tweaked?

 

I mean, look at those last 4 games and explain to me how it's more probable that we'd lose them all than win them all.

 

Can you please commence work on the NPI (Norm Peterson Index)?  And somehow bias the algorithm to favor Nebraska?  Not sure how you could feasibly do that unless you include record against the spread...

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5 hours ago, MitchMcGaryMunchies said:

 

Can you please commence work on the NPI (Norm Peterson Index)?  And somehow bias the algorithm to favor Nebraska?  Not sure how you could feasibly do that unless you include record against the spread...

We are adding in home crowd decibels, as well as rpi x(home crowd size / 1000) + peak decibels - amount of cities with a population of 500,000 in your state 

 

 

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5 hours ago, MitchMcGaryMunchies said:

 

Can you please commence work on the NPI (Norm Peterson Index)?  And somehow bias the algorithm to favor Nebraska?  Not sure how you could feasibly do that unless you include record against the spread...

 

Mitch, toss out what the computers tell you and just look at how the Huskers had been playing to that point in the season and answer me this:

 

Can you honesty say with a straight face that, at the point in time when we only had 4 games left in the regular season, you thought the odds of the Huskers winning out in their last 4 games, 3 of which are/were at home and one on the road against a Big Ten bottom dweller (Maryland, @Illinois, Indiana, Penn State), would be less than the odds of losing out?  In other words, that it would be more likely we'd lose all of the next four than that we'd win them?

 

Keep in mind, at that point, we were on a 5-game winning streak and had only dropped 3 road games in our last 15 contests since dropping a home game to Kansas by 1 point.

 

Now, to me, a mere human, it seems a lot more likely that we'd win those last 4 games, all against teams below us in league standings, than that we'd lose them.

 

But what do I know?

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6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Mitch, toss out what the computers tell you and just look at how the Huskers had been playing to that point in the season and answer me this:

 

Can you honesty say with a straight face that, at the point in time when we only had 4 games left in the regular season, you thought the odds of the Huskers winning out in their last 4 games, 3 of which are/were at home and one on the road against a Big Ten bottom dweller (Maryland, @Illinois, Indiana, Penn State), would be less than the odds of losing out?  In other words, that it would be more likely we'd lose all of the next four than that we'd win them?

 

Keep in mind, at that point, we were on a 5-game winning streak and had only dropped 3 road games in our last 15 contests since dropping a home game to Kansas by 1 point.

 

Now, to me, a mere human, it seems a lot more likely that we'd win those last 4 games, all against teams below us in league standings, than that we'd lose them.

 

But what do I know?

 

It’s explained by that system treating us as underdogs in three of the last four. I’d consider us to be favorites in all four games (although the way PSU is playing right now...), but three of them are close enough that I’m not going to complain if the computers don’t agree.

 

I agree with you, the chances of us winning the last four were certainly greater than losing all of them. Just curious, what are the odds you’d give us of winning each individual remaining game? Including Maryland before it happened.

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This is an honest question so some of the tech experts will be able to answer this for me. It may apply to some of the projections discussed above. Are some computers dumber than others? I know some dogs are dumber than others, and certainly this applies to homo sapiens. Do all the computers analyze things the same and is it just the data fed to them by dumb humans? I'm pretty sure I have a dumb e-bay.

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7 minutes ago, jimmykc said:

This is an honest question so some of the tech experts will be able to answer this for me. It may apply to some of the projections discussed above. Are some computers dumber than others? I know some dogs are dumber than others, and certainly this applies to homo sapiens. Do all the computers analyze things the same and is it just the data fed to them by dumb humans? I'm pretty sure I have a dumb e-bay.

LOL. Computers, aka machines, do what they are told (by humans). Different humans will make computer ranking systems differently based on what criteria they feel is best. So certainly some computers will be "dumber" than others if they are based on criteria that aren't as predictive as other, better criteria.

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14 minutes ago, HuskerActuary said:

LOL. Computers, aka machines, do what they are told (by humans). Different humans will make computer ranking systems differently based on what criteria they feel is best. So certainly some computers will be "dumber" than others if they are based on criteria that aren't as predictive as other, better criteria.

 

That's right. Challenge the assumptions, not the computers! (that is, until they take over the world...)

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It's more than likely my fault because I know computers hate me. I go to Wal-Mart, computer scanner acts up. So I use self checkout next time...computer scanner acts up. Try to haul corn...scale computer acts up. There are more examples but I will quit there. Probably has something to do with the verbal abuse I lay on my computer when it acts up. So my apologies for turning the computers against us.  

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2 hours ago, Cookie Miller Wasn't Dirty said:

 

It’s explained by that system treating us as underdogs in three of the last four. I’d consider us to be favorites in all four games (although the way PSU is playing right now...), but three of them are close enough that I’m not going to complain if the computers don’t agree.

 

I agree with you, the chances of us winning the last four were certainly greater than losing all of them. Just curious, what are the odds you’d give us of winning each individual remaining game? Including Maryland before it happened.

 

Considering three of the last four were at home and all four were against teams below us in the conference (and all but Maryland below us in rpi at the time) I think we were at least twice as likely to win out as lose out.

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5 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Mitch, toss out what the computers tell you and just look at how the Huskers had been playing to that point in the season and answer me this:

 

Can you honesty say with a straight face that, at the point in time when we only had 4 games left in the regular season, you thought the odds of the Huskers winning out in their last 4 games, 3 of which are/were at home and one on the road against a Big Ten bottom dweller (Maryland, @Illinois, Indiana, Penn State), would be less than the odds of losing out?  In other words, that it would be more likely we'd lose all of the next four than that we'd win them?

 

Keep in mind, at that point, we were on a 5-game winning streak and had only dropped 3 road games in our last 15 contests since dropping a home game to Kansas by 1 point.

 

Now, to me, a mere human, it seems a lot more likely that we'd win those last 4 games, all against teams below us in league standings, than that we'd lose them.

 

But what do I know?

 

I agree with you completely, but I'm drunk off that Big Red Kool-Aid, so my opinions are likely biased.

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On 1/3/2018 at 10:41 AM, 49r said:

@Norm Peterson I scrape that data from the RPI Forecast site http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

It hasn't been updated yet to include the win last night but so far they have us slotted right at .500 still:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-9 45.7 0.03%
21-10 56.2 0.24%
20-11 69.0 0.92%
19-12 81.6 2.89%
18-13 98.7 7.10%
17-14 116.6 14.74%
16-15 136.0 20.76%
15-16 155.2 21.95%
14-17 173.3 17.04%
13-18 190.0 9.68%
12-19 206.2 3.54%
11-20 220.2 1.02%
10-21 235.2 0.08%

 

For anyone depressed about yesterday's loss, I'd recommend going back through this thread from page 1 - just 6 weeks ago we were looking at a less than 1% shot at 20 wins...

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9 minutes ago, 49r said:

...and we were all pretty excited about the possibility of managing to get over .500 overall.  Interesting how things can change.

 

I was just saying the same thing in the Tell me what our changing expectations say our final record will be now thread

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