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Norm Peterson

Tell me what the statisticians say our final record will be now!

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RealTime RPI

 

  01-27     Iowa   11-11 (2-7) 143  79-68 W - Scouting  
  01-29   at  Wisconsin   10-11 (3-5) 138  71-76 L - Scouting  
  02-06   at  Minnesota   14-9 (3-7) 100  68-76 L - Scouting  
  02-10     Rutgers   11-10 (2-7) 189  78-68 W - Scouting  
  02-13     Maryland   14-7 (4-5) 52  79-71 W - Scouting  
  02-18   at  Illinois   10-11 (1-8) 158  72-76 L - Scouting  
  02-20     Indiana   12-9 (5-4) 111  76-68 W - Scouting  
  02-25     Penn St.   13-8 (3-5) 133  77-68 W - Scouting  

Current Record:  15-8 (6-4)
GAMER Projected Record:  19-12 (10-8)

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RPI Forecast:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
23-8 42.1 0.31%
22-9 52.1 2.69%
21-10 63.5 10.47%
20-11 77.3 22.15%
19-12 94.1 28.57%
18-13 112.6 22.76%
17-14 132.1 10.32%
16-15 151.9 2.48%
15-16 168.8 0.24%

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On 1/25/2018 at 8:59 AM, PimpMario said:

We were supposed to be Rutgers. That doesn't mean we would.

My wife asked me if we were supposed to win last night and I said yes.

"Then why are you so nervous?'

We were small underdogs in the game.  

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RPI Forecast now gives us better than 4.5% shot of winning out!

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
23-8 44.6 4.59%
22-9 55.5 20.58%
21-10 67.3 36.16%
20-11 82.8 27.30%
19-12 100.4 10.02%
18-13 117.8 1.34%

 

 

 

2-10 Rutgers (214.0) B10 H 0-0   80% 9.2
2-13 Maryland (54.7) B10 H 0-0   45% -1.4
2-18 Illinois (152.2) B10 A 0-0   41% -2.4
2-20 Indiana (116.9) B10 H 0-0   61% 3.0
2-25 Penn St. (88.0) B10 H 0-0   51% 0.2

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Just now, jdostal said:

RPI Forecast seems to use a similar model as whoever keeps putting money against Nebraska in Vegas. We had a 36% chance against Minny last night, or a loss of 4 points. I like our chances of finishing better than RPI Forecast expects.

 

This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff.  They didn't think much of us to begin the season.  Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams.

 

So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good.  Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential.  

 

The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation.  I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5.

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23 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff.  They didn't think much of us to begin the season.  Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams.

 

So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good.  Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential.  

 

The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation.  I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5.

 

Are we talking about MBB here?  Or Women's?  Or Both?  ^_^

 

Edit:  It seems that Neither program are getting much Respect from KenPom, or Sagarin! 

 

Huskers (18-8) (9-4) KenPom ranking #81 75 79 81 85 67 65 63 61 57 61 57 (thru 2/6/18); (#98 pre-season)

 

Husker Ladies (17-7) (8-3), Sagarin ranking: #53 (@ 2/4/18) (#167 @ 4/2/17)
Husker Ladies, ranked #53 don't get much respect from Sagarin, still well behind teams we have defeated, #37 Minnesota, #31 Iowa (Twice), and #32 Rutgers.
Guess we'll just have to beat Michigan State Too!

 

 

 

Edited by Red Don

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5 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

This RPI stuff is a lot of garbage in/garbage out kinda stuff.  They didn't think much of us to begin the season.  Not sure where RPI Forecast had us ranked, but probably well outside the top 100 teams.

 

So, to them, our success looks like us just playing over our heads for most of the season as opposed to actually being that good.  Or even being BETTER than that but just not playing up to our potential.  

 

The fact that we keep winning more than they've predicted, despite the fact that we've already been winning more than was predicted, tells me that most of these computers are set up to assume that we are the team they thought we were to begin with and that if we win a game we're not supposed to, it's more of a "we snuck a win" situation than "we're better than you thought" situation.  I say that because their predictions have not yet caught up with how good this team is and I would be SHOCKED if we only win 3 more games after what we did in the last 5.

 

I agree and I also think that there are too many teams in the NCAA that play basketball.  Because of that some teams like us start so far down that it is really, really, really hard to move up.

 

I think or feel it is like too many other things in sports now where every little thing has become it's on money making adventure.

 

We have what 91 web sites that tells who is in and out of the tournament?

We have how many web sites of experts who do RPI?

We have how many web sites of experts that tell us the order of how good each high school player in America is?

 

Too many experts, not enough just let it play out.

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5 minutes ago, 49r said:

Getting down to the nitty-gritty:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
23-8 43.9 6.05%
22-9 55.3 24.41%
21-10 67.4 37.01%
20-11 82.4 25.91%
19-12 99.0 6.61%

 

2-13 Maryland (57.2) B10 H 0-0   45% -1.5
2-18 Illinois (161.9) B10 A 0-0   43% -1.9
2-20 Indiana (112.6) B10 H 0-0   59% 2.5
2-25 Penn St. (79.6) B10 H 0-0   51% 0.2

 

 

 

So, Nebraska is now an underdog to both Maryland & Illinois this week.

 

Last week it was NU slightly favored in the final four games. Interesting......

 

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So, "They" think there's a better chance that we lose out than that we win out?  With 3 out of 4 remaining games at home and the only road game against a team at the bottom of league standings?

 

Tells me the computers still believe they were right about us at the outset of the season and that we've been overachieving this whole time.

 

The computers are wrong.

 

One thing that concerns me is our expected RPI if we lose even one game.  Puts us lower than where we are today.  But winning out puts us squarely on the right side of the bubble.

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:ph34r: Interesting that 'they' think we have more of a chance of winning only one more game than they think we have of winning three (out of the four remaining games). But I guess it makes sense, in a way.  It just goes to show that it goes back to what a lot of us were saying at the beginning of the season;  'They' just don't know what 'We' know about this team!

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In the least surprising news ever, KenPom has upped the record projecton to 22-9 and 13-5.

 

IIRC, We've never won 13 conference games in one season.  Ever.

Edited by 49r

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2 minutes ago, 49r said:

In the least surprising news ever, KenPom has upped the record projecton to 22-9 and 13-5.

 

IIRC, We've never won 13 conference games in one season.  Ever.

 

So, it looks like his Computer is going to keep fighting us until the bitter end when the buzzer sounds against Penn St and we're 14-4.  We have and will continue to own you KenPom!

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