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Norm Peterson

Tell me what the statisticians say our final record will be now!

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3 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11

 

But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. 

 

Interesting that it didn’t move the needle much.  Oh well, guess a road W at Purdue will sure things up!

 

Not a game left on our schedule where I’m like... “That’s probably an L.”  

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1 minute ago, 49r said:

Didn't move the needle much?  That popped us over ten spots!  That, my friend, is a BIG jump at this point in the season.

 

Sorry, I should have clarified with the record.  Not the ranking, because that’s nice.  But basically it saying that we win at NW but every other game stays the same right?

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6 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

We have NO bad losses, nor will we, basically.  And we have a couple of fairly quality wins. Sooooo ... yay us.

 

Noir worst loss is a semi away game to UCF.  If it remains that way, we will be sitting nice at the end of the year.

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50 minutes ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

And there it is jumped up to 84 and 17-14 8-11

 

But after Purdue every game is under a 10 point spread and KenPom is not yet convinced that we can protect the vault. 

I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us. Or look at a team like Wisconsin they’re 9-7 and I can’t imagine their schedule is that much harder than ours and they’re ahead of us too

Just wondering I know it doesn’t matter in the end (hopefully)

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3 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us

 

They do have a tougher SOS. Also, they were ranked higher than us to start the season and we're still the same team that needed Tanner to step up to beat Stetson at home

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7 minutes ago, cjbowbros said:

I really don’t understand how we get ranked 84th with our total body of work compared to Northwestern who has a worse record and I don’t think any better strength of schedule than us. Or look at a team like Wisconsin they’re 9-7 and I can’t imagine their schedule is that much harder than ours and they’re ahead of us too

Just wondering I know it doesn’t matter in the end (hopefully)

Okay this is by far the worst Penn State 42 spots above us. Same record much worst schedule. So Kenton may not be the most accurate representation of where we’re at right now. 

I do think you’re right though dimes the close wins against the last 3 teams probably hurt us a lot in ken Pom but won’t be something I see the comitee being too worried about

Edited by cjbowbros

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Someone here shared this other site, which has great advanced stats which are aggregated...long story, but in the end, you get tourney predictions all the way through at least 100 deep, first four out, etc. 

It's bracketmatrix.com. Check it out. I was blown away when I saw it. It's pretty good

 

It's now 1 of the 3 tabs i keep on my phone, along with Kenpom and HHC. We'll see if it proves to be reliable I guess. But it's been an great unexpected resource so far. Still looking for more! Imo the college basketball tourney is the best designed tournament in all of sports. (Champions league right up there) I hope other sports take note. (The NBA imo could take lessons from this system) 

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6 hours ago, cjbowbros said:

hurt us a lot in ken Pom but won’t be something I see the comitee being too worried about

 

They're evaluating two different things.  KenPom doesn't even really care about wins or loses...it's more about point differential because it's trying to predict future scores. For instance 0-13 Texas Southern kept rising in the rankings because it played nothing but good teams on the road and would often be closer than anticipated in winning.  Us winning or losing by 1 vs Kansas wouldn't really change our rating.

 

While it matters who you win and lose to the committee only cares about wins and loses and not the margin of victory. The committee is trying to evaluate what you've done, not predict what you're going to do.

 

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Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play:

 

Strength of Schedule
Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6
Overall: +1.29 142 0.00
Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00

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3 minutes ago, 49r said:

Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play:

 

Strength of Schedule
Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6
Overall: +1.29 142 0.00
Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00

Exactly, and this is why I'm still saying we need to get to 22 wins to feel good about NCAA tournament chances. Very long way to go.

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1 hour ago, 49r said:

Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play:

 

Strength of Schedule
Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6
Overall: +1.29 142 0.00
Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00

I think absolute garbage is a little extreme there are some power 5 teams with SOS in the 300s. About half of the teams we’ve played are top 150 most of those are top 100. But yes obviously it’s not as good as last years. Which in my opinion is probably good we are in a great position and our schedule is probably a good reason for that.

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9 hours ago, Wolv77 said:

Someone here shared this other site, which has great advanced stats which are aggregated...long story, but in the end, you get tourney predictions all the way through at least 100 deep, first four out, etc. 

It's bracketmatrix.com. Check it out. I was blown away when I saw it. It's pretty good

 

It's now 1 of the 3 tabs i keep on my phone, along with Kenpom and HHC. We'll see if it proves to be reliable I guess. But it's been an great unexpected resource so far. Still looking for more! Imo the college basketball tourney is the best designed tournament in all of sports. (Champions league right up there) I hope other sports take note. (The NBA imo could take lessons from this system) 

 

It's a very good site to follow throughout the season. Will be interesting to see if we are projected in any of the brackets after last night's win once they all start updating. As of now we're still not in any of them and Northwestern is only projected to be in 1 of the 46 brackets on there. Kind of a bummer.

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2 hours ago, 49r said:

Our Non Con SOS is absolute garbage (opposite of last year's), so we're really going to need to make hay in league play to have any kind of shot at postseason play:

 

Strength of Schedule
Components: 104.4 134 103.1 144 103.6
Overall: +1.29 142 0.00
Non-conference: -3.33 278 0.00

 

We're playing two extra conference games. If you include the Rutgers games as non-cons, we're looking at the low 200s which is approximately what we had making the tournament in 2014. I suspect our overall will be in the 30s, maybe a little lower.  This isn't the same as RPI though which the committee will continue to use until they don't.

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On a related but slightly different subject, I think we're starting to get enough data points to set a realistic ceiling and floor for where we'll end up in the standings.  At this point I could see us ending up anywhere from 3rd to 11th.  We're not finishing above MSU or Purdue, and we're likely not finishing below Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois.  Anything else wouldn't shock me.

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@Norm Peterson I scrape that data from the RPI Forecast site http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Nebraska.html

 

It hasn't been updated yet to include the win last night but so far they have us slotted right at .500 still:

 

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-9 45.7 0.03%
21-10 56.2 0.24%
20-11 69.0 0.92%
19-12 81.6 2.89%
18-13 98.7 7.10%
17-14 116.6 14.74%
16-15 136.0 20.76%
15-16 155.2 21.95%
14-17 173.3 17.04%
13-18 190.0 9.68%
12-19 206.2 3.54%
11-20 220.2 1.02%
10-21 235.2 0.08%

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By the way I haven't put the RPI rankings up in a while but here's the Big Ten:

 

RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I
14 16 Purdue Big Ten 13-2 2-0 2-2 9-0 0-0
28 27 Michigan St. Big Ten 14-1 1-0 4-1 9-0 0-0
37 47 Michigan  Big Ten 13-3 2-2 2-1 8-0 1-0
47 49 Ohio St. Big Ten 11-4 1-0 1-3 9-1 0-0
53 55 Maryland  Big Ten 13-3 1-1 2-1 9-1 1-0
58 53 Minnesota  Big Ten 12-3 1-2 2-0 9-1 0-0
77 90 Nebraska  Big Ten 11-5 1-3 2-1 8-1 0-0
97 75 Northwestern Big Ten 10-6 1-3 1-1 7-2 1-0
116 121 Wisconsin Big Ten 9-7 1-2 0-2 8-3 0-0
121 123 Illinois  Big Ten 10-5 0-2 1-2 8-1 1-0
123 125 Penn St. Big Ten 11-5 2-2 1-1 8-2 0-0
144 135 Indiana  Big Ten 8-7 0-4 1-0 7-3 0-0
174 163 Iowa  Big Ten 9-7 0-3 3-2 6-2 0-0
215 216 Rutgers Big Ten 10-5 0-1 0-0 9-4 1-0

 

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