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uneblinstu

Bracketology. ***Spoiler: We're not in it yet.***

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9 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

12-6 gets us a double bye easily.  Last year Minnesota got a double bye (fourth place finish) with an 11-7 record.  Illinois finished 9th and got a first round bye with an 8-10 record.

 

17mbbtournamentbracket.pdf

 

That was pretty much my point.  Could be the 3 seed with that.

 

Even with rpi in the 50s, could the committee leave out the 3 seed in the B1g tourney?

 

That would take some very strange things happening in my opinion.

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29 minutes ago, huskerbaseball13 said:

 

The Big Ten is not going to do us much favors in terms of RPI this year.  It's probably crucial we beat teams like Rutgers/Iowa/Indiana.  With that said, I can't imagine we get left out of we find a way to win 11 Big Ten games in the regular season.  Last nights game was huge as I think we will be a very tough out at home.  Probably won't happen but I don't see why this team couldn't win 8 Big Ten games at home. 

 

Wisconsin

Illinois

Michigan

Iowa

Rutgers

Maryland

Indiana

Penn state

 

Of those, michigan and maryland are the only games that the team has a pulse in my opinion.

 

We should win 8 at home.  Should.  Helps that we already beat the best or second best opponent.

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I didn't realize the B1G was ranked 6th of the Power 6 in conference RPI until today. Wow Wisconsin, Indiana, NW, and Iowa all under performing is screwing us. Knowing what I know now I'm with @HuskerActuary we're gonna need a 12-6 conference record and more than likely a win in the B1G tourney. And I also think if we went 12-6 the rest of our regular season losses cant be at Purdue, Michigan, at Ohio State, at Minnesota for the rematch, and Maryland. We need to win a couple of those games for quality.

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3 minutes ago, OmahaHusker said:

I didn't realize the B1G was ranked 6th of the Power 6 in conference RPI until today. Wow Wisconsin, Indiana, NW, and Iowa all under performing is screwing us. Knowing what I know now I'm with @HuskerActuary we're gonna need a 12-6 conference record and more than likely a win in the B1G tourney. And I also think if we went 12-6 the rest of our regular season losses cant be at Purdue, Michigan, at Ohio State, at Minnesota for the rematch, and Maryland. We need to win a couple of those games for quality.

The conference is down but let's not get carried away...it's still a respected conference.   We don't need 13 conference wins to get in.   10-8 with a tourney win would do it.  Especially if Minnesota stays strong and NW rights the ship a bit.

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11 minutes ago, nustudent said:

The conference is down but let's not get carried away...it's still a respected conference.   We don't need 13 conference wins to get in.   10-8 with a tourney win would do it.  Especially if Minnesota stays strong and NW rights the ship a bit.

 

Agree to disagree. I just don't see how 10-8 gets us in when we have no quality non con wins (maybe BC). The committee aren't idiots they're not going to default to conference respect when middle of the pack teams (which we would be at 10-8) from the five conferences above us have more quality wins from stronger conference competition. This is also looking way to far ahead, but it's still fun to talk about.

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10-8 puts us at 19-12...20-13 with a 1-1 in the conference tourney.   I'd be very interested in how many .500+, 10-conference win, 20 win overall, power 5 conference teams have historically been left out of the dance.    My guess is not very many.   20 wins would put us in the mid-50s RPI wise.

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With that record... As blasphemous as it sounds I'd have some serious moments preferring a deep NIT run... More games for a team that could be very good next year rather than a crapshoot against a 6 seed or a play-in game.

 

I want to see how we play purdue.  If we give them all they can handle for most of the game...  my opinion will be very different than if we are blown out.  Hard to put so much on one game but as mentioned we have no great wins right now... Ncaa borderline cases are made with great wins and hot endings.

 

We are still learning what this team can be in my opinion.

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55 minutes ago, kleitus said:

With that record... As blasphemous as it sounds I'd have some serious moments preferring a deep NIT run... More games for a team that could be very good next year rather than a crapshoot against a 6 seed or a play-in game.

NCAA tournament experience is more valuable than an NIT tournament championship.

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2 hours ago, nustudent said:

10-8 puts us at 19-12...20-13 with a 1-1 in the conference tourney.   I'd be very interested in how many .500+, 10-conference win, 20 win overall, power 5 conference teams have historically been left out of the dance.    My guess is not very many.   20 wins would put us in the mid-50s RPI wise.

 

I am with you.The BIG10 is still a power conference and if we are in the top 5-6 with 20 wins we will be at worst on the bubble and I think we get in. We played some good non con teams at least so it is not like we played a embarrassing non con that they would hold against us.

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2 hours ago, nustudent said:

10-8 puts us at 19-12...20-13 with a 1-1 in the conference tourney.   I'd be very interested in how many .500+, 10-conference win, 20 win overall, power 5 conference teams have historically been left out of the dance.    My guess is not very many.   20 wins would put us in the mid-50s RPI wise.

Not sure how accurate rpiforecast.com is but at 19-12, they project our RPI at 83!  Yikes!  I want to see a top half of conference finish and let the chips fall where they may.

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1 hour ago, uneblinstu said:

NCAA tournament experience is more valuable than an NIT tournament championship.

not necessarily...one and done in the NCAA doesn't necessarily add anything.

 

however, experience winning games to get into the NCAA tourney is valuable, but just playing a game in the NCAA really isn't that big of a deal.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Blindcheck said:

not necessarily...one and done in the NCAA doesn't necessarily add anything.

 

however, experience winning games to get into the NCAA tourney is valuable, but just playing a game in the NCAA really isn't that big of a deal.

It is at a place like Nebraska and frankly, it is for most schools that aren't blue bloods. Everybody talks about getting to the dance. That's the goal and dream for 99% of all college basketball teams and players. An NIT run doesn't add much. Any NCAA visit is more preferable than any of the other options on the table. Especially at a place like Nebraska.

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OK, if we have to get to 12 conference wins, I think you can look at our schedule and see the hope or possibility of reaching that benchmark.  Won't be easy.  Margins for error are extremely tight.  We have to basically win out at home, with possibility that we can sustain one home loss balanced against an extra road win.  

 

Most likely home losses would be Michigan or Maryland.  But both are also winnable.

 

Best chances for road wins would be, in order, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State.  Those are also all winnable.

 

Trouble is there's a bunch that are also losable if we don't play well.

 

No nights off.

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NCAA trumps NIT.   Especially for as success starved as we are.   If we have that much potential....the NCAA is the goal and should be expected this year....not next.   Plus let's not forget what happened the last time we had high expectations entering a season.

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1 hour ago, HuskerPower #nato73 said:

Not sure how accurate rpiforecast.com is but at 19-12, they project our RPI at 83!  Yikes!  I want to see a top half of conference finish and let the chips fall where they may.

 

Looked into rpiforecast.com. So we could go 10-5 the rest of the regular season and are only projected to have an RPI of 56.9! That is trash! THANKS BIG TEN! To accomplish 12-6 in conference and only have that kind of RPI is unreal.

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Like many (most) of us here I have played the NIT game for years. Remember, we were once a fixture in the NIT and won the whole thing one of those years. None of the NIT runs got us a win in the NCAA the following year. So, no, I do not think winning the NIT is worth even one victory in the Big Dance. I hope that at worst the cameras will be on our team on selection Sunday to record our disappointment/jubilation when we get the result. Surely we will deserve at least one of the "play in" games if we maintain our present course.

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If behind Door #1 is a slot in the play-in game and behind Door #2 is some unknown other end to the season, I'm taking Door #1 and I don't even need to think hard about it.  For starters, that means we're in the tournament.  It also means we're likely playing an 11 seed for a chance at our first official*** tourney win.  And if that's not enough, then consider that we'll have had a week off prior to the Dance (thanks Jim Delaney you East Coast-pandering turd), and a play-in game gives us a chance to knock the rust off prior to playing a 5 or 6 seed.  I'll take a shot at the play-in game all day e'r day.

 

***For those of you that are about to say that play-in games aren't real NCAA wins, don't bother.  They count.  And if memory serves correctly, that's how South Florida got it's only NCAA win a few years back which, combined with Northwestern's win last year, makes us the only winless Power 5 team.  

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No cheating! Who on the top of their heads remembers who won the NIT last year?

 

For a few, you're just brainiac sports junkies. For the vast majority the NIT is no longer remembered by anyone unless that's the only thing you're holding on to because that's either your highest achievement or you bring it up in jest.

 

Nonetheless, recruits and fans watch and remember the NCAA tournament.

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Every team  but Rutgers is the conference is Kenpom  top 100 so 10 conference wins would get us to double digits top 100 wins.  Do you think that is not enough with multiple on the road.

Edited by jdw

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8 hours ago, nustudent said:

10-8 puts us at 19-12...20-13 with a 1-1 in the conference tourney.   I'd be very interested in how many .500+, 10-conference win, 20 win overall, power 5 conference teams have historically been left out of the dance.    My guess is not very many.   20 wins would put us in the mid-50s RPI wise.

 

The counter-example that fits that criteria would be Ohio State in 2016.  They were 11-7 in the conference, 1-1 in the Big Ten tournament, and 20-13 overall.  They finished 7th in the Big Ten; the Big Ten put 7 teams into the tournament (the teams that finished first through sixth plus Michigan, that finished eighth with a 10-8 record).  The records of the teams at the top in the standings that year were inflated due to Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois all having historically bad seasons, which accounts for an 11-7 team finishing seventh.

 

Ohio State that year did beat Kentucky (27-9, 4 seed in NCAA), but their next best non-conference win was against Northern Illinois.  They lost in the non-conference to Virginia (29-8, 1 seed), UConn (25-11, 9 seed), Memphis (19-15), Louisiana Tech (23-10), and UT Arlington (24-11).  Their remaining nonconference wins were against South Carolina State, Mercer, Air Force, Mt. St. Mary's, VMI, and Grambling.

 

In conference they beat 12-6 Iowa and 10-8 Michigan, and went 9-0 against the bottom six teams in the conference (8-10 Northwestern, 7-11 Penn State, 6-12 Nebraska, 5-13 Illinois, 2-16 Minnesta, 1-17 Rutgers).  They finished 3-10 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament and 17-3 against teams finishing with an RPI below 100.  Their RPI was 78.  

 

Edited by Dead Dog Alley

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7 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

The counter-example that fits that criteria would be Ohio State in 2016.  They were 11-7 in the conference, 1-1 in the Big Ten tournament, and 20-13 overall.  They finished 7th in the Big Ten; the Big Ten put 7 teams into the tournament (the teams that finished first through sixth plus Michigan, that finished eighth with a 10-8 record).  The records of the teams at the top in the standings that year were inflated due to Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois all having historically bad seasons, which accounts for an 11-7 team finishing seventh.

 

Ohio State that year did beat Kentucky (27-9, 4 seed in NCAA), but their next best non-conference win was against Northern Illinois.  They lost in the non-conference to Virginia (29-8, 1 seed), UConn (25-11), Memphis (19-15), Louisiana Tech (23-10), and UT Arlington (24-11).  Their remaining nonconference wins were against South Carolina State, Mercer, Air Force, Mt. St. Mary's, VMI, and Grambling.

 

In conference they beat 12-6 Iowa and 10-8 Michigan, and went 9-0 against the bottom six teams in the conference (8-10 Northwestern, 7-11 Penn State, 6-12 Nebraska, 5-13 Illinois, 2-16 Minnesta, 1-17 Rutgers).  They finished 3-10 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament.  Their RPI was 78.

 

Counter to that is that there are no historically had teams. Although I hope Iowa goes winless. 

Edited by jdw

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