Pre-Annual Cupcake Loss Check-In

[HuskerFever]

We're sitting here at 7-5 (1-1) right now with 3 more non-conference games to go. Of the 81 predictions made by HHCC participants, the average estimate for wins is 9.1 (highest was 11, lowest was 8).

 

Predicted Number of Non-Conference Wins:

1-7 wins: 0

8 wins: 13

9 wins: 45

10 wins: 22

11 wins: 1

12-13 wins: 0

 

Preseason prediction stats are fun and all, but we've had weeks to see what product we have on the court right now. Where do you think we stand? Are we above preseason expectations? Below? On par?

[FredsSlacks]

if we win these last 3, we will be right about where most of us expected. 

[Red Don]

I vote we forego the annual cupcake loss this year!      If we do that we are just on par with the expectations of most, i.e. 9-4   (there are 13 OOC games).

 

(I think I'm on record as expecting (hoping for ) a 10-3 OOC record.)

Edited December 18, 2017 by Red Don

[kldm64]

I'd like to count on the next 3 wins but under Miles, we always have found a way to lose a cupcake game every year.  Hoping that doesn't happen this year as I really like this team.

[NUtball]

Just slightly better than I expected.  So far, the only game to go against my preseason W-L guess was Minnesota, which was a pleasant surprise.  They are progressing better than I thought - at the start of the season, I didn't think they'd give Crayton or KU much of a game.

[busticket]

I don’t get too hung up on the wins and losses as far as my expectations of the team.  I gauge more by how we play, which generally leads to good (or bad) win totals.  To my eyes, early on we were much worse than I expected.  The last 5 games have changed my perception quite a bit.  We look like we have turned a corner.  We are much, much better than in November.  Based on that I picked exceeded.  Hopefully I feel the same at season’s end!

[The Polish Rifle]

They've met expectations for me. Still in position to be a bubble team.

Moments they exceeded expectations: Beat Minnesota, belonged on the court with CU and KU.

Moments they have under preformed: I think getting 2/3 from St Johns, BC, UCF is what a tournament team needs to do.

[hhcmatt]

This Wednesday game is the game.  We could have a picture of Miles taped to Lil Red as the coach for Delaware St and Stetson and win comfortably.

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, kldm64 said:

I'd like to count on the next 3 wins but under Miles, we always have found a way to lose a cupcake game every year.  Hoping that doesn't happen this year as I really like this team.

 

We didn't in 2013-14 

[Handy Johnson]

Speaking of cupcakes, if we don't beat Iowa and Wisconsin this year I'll be more than a little surprised.

[jason2486]

Or Indiana...Fort Wayne was owning them in Bloomington. 

[tcp]

we had lots of new parts, and the season so far looks like a talented roster of, well, new parts. 

 

this team is clearly better than last year's version, but at the same time, it still struggles to win against quality competition. 

My best guess is that this year's team would be NIT quality (which is better than it used to be, so that's not a backhand: harder tourney to make now). And that's what I see so far is a solid NIT caliber team that could squeak up a bit higher if its interior play gets better. 

 

I still don't see a tourney team yet because for all we know, this team might have just played its best basketball in a losing cause, and because I don't know if that's true or not, I have to see how they do about a month into the conference season. I think we'll know what team this is by about the end of the third week of full conference play. 

 

 

[colhusker]

In terms of wins and losses we are about where I figured we would be.  It's the being competitive in big games that made me click exceeding my expectations.

 

[hhcmatt]

Some of you might remember UTSA coach Steve Henson from his playing time at Kansas St.

He had been assistant under his former coach Lon Kruger at Oklahoma, UNLV, Illinois, and the Atlanta Hawks.

[Fullbacksympathy]

The next three are must wins for Miles to keep his job.  I'm behind the guy, but we can't lose at home to bums again this year.  Respect your opponent and your own win column.  

 

Overall, it's been a solid non-con and while execution hasn't always been great, TM and co have done a fantastic job of coaching up effort.  We'll win a couple of games we're not supposed to if we keep it up.  

 

 

[49r]

So, hypothetically, if Nebraska loses one of the next three home games but then goes on another wild February run this year and finishes top 4 in the B1G and we go dancing...in your mind that doesn't matter.  Fire Miles?

[49r]

I mean, I understand the theory.  We should be at a point to where we have to expect wins at home versus bottom third type teams, but you know, this is basketball.  Crazy crap happens...

[49r]

...and just for the record @LK1 I've been at the fire Miles tipping point personally for over a year now, but I also understand that you can't just make hire/fire decisions based on the outcome of one (or in this case, three) games.

[Fullbacksympathy]

4 minutes ago, 49r said:

So, hypothetically, if Nebraska loses one of the next three home games but then goes on another wild February run this year and finishes top 4 in the B1G and we go dancing...in your mind that doesn't matter.  Fire Miles?

 

Of course not.  But if he loses a cupcake and we end up falling off the bubble because of it, bye bye.  I'm actually not on the fire Miles tipping point because I think the job he's done as a recruiter has been phenomenal.  I'd put his tenure so far at a B.  I'm waiting for his in-game coaching to catch up to his recruiting prowess.  I'm also open to the idea that he's getting so much talent on the floor that in-game coaching will matter less and less moving forward.  Nothing matters more than talent.  

[49r]

Well then, how about we just go ahead and win all three?

[HuskerFever]

1 hour ago, LK1 said:

 

Of course not.  But if he loses a cupcake and we end up falling off the bubble because of it, bye bye.  I'm actually not on the fire Miles tipping point because I think the job he's done as a recruiter has been phenomenal.  I'd put his tenure so far at a B.  I'm waiting for his in-game coaching to catch up to his recruiting prowess.  I'm also open to the idea that he's getting so much talent on the floor that in-game coaching will matter less and less moving forward.  Nothing matters more than talent.  

 

It's hard for me to give a coach a 'B' with an 82-91 (34-58) record. But I get your point.

[hhcmatt]

Would we have gone to the NIT had we beaten Samford in 2015-16?  If so, that matters. Losing to Gardner Webb and Incarnate Word was embarrassing but fairly meaningless in terms of of post season goals. 

 

[hhcmatt]

Stetson University is in fact named after famed cowboy hat inventor John B Stetson.

Their mascot "John B" looks like rancher Herbie

 

 

[Fullbacksympathy]

32 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

Would we have gone to the NIT had we beaten Samford in 2015-16?  If so, that matters. Losing to Gardner Webb and Incarnate Word was embarrassing but fairly meaningless in terms of of post season goals. 

 

 

Good points.  A general rule for me is when a team with greater talent on the roster loses to a team with significantly less talent at home that something is abysmally wrong with the system the coach is trying to run.  That verdict is still out with Miles, in my opinion.

 

However, now that we have legitimate B1G talent filling out basically the entire roster (and gets even better next year), I tend to think the scales are tipping in TM's favor.  Suddenly, his system doesn't look so bad, and it's not because of a hot streak--this team is actually full of pretty good basketball players.  

 

When I think about Doc and, in some respects, Nee, I think they both displayed better in-game coaching than Miles has to this point.  Nee was good at letting talent win games with an extremely up-tempo and improvisational system and Doc was incredible, at times, churning out .500 teams with awful talent.  Do I think there are other coaches who could x and o their way to a decent seed in the NCAA tournament with this current roster?  Absolutely.  Do I think there are other coaches who could recruit guys this good to Nebraska?  Hell no.  Sometimes you gotta dance with the one who brung ya.  

Edited December 19, 2017 by LK1

[hskr4life]

8 minutes ago, LK1 said:

 

Good points.  A general rule for me is when a team with greater talent on the roster loses to a team with significantly less talent at home that something is abysmally wrong with the system the coach is trying to run.  That verdict is still out with Miles, in my opinion.

 

However, now that we have legitimate B1G talent filling out basically the entire roster (and gets even better next year), I tend to think the scales are tipping in TM's favor.  Suddenly, his system doesn't look so bad, and it's not because of a hot streak--this team is actually full of pretty good basketball players.  

 

When I think about Doc and, in some respects, Nee, I think they both displayed better in-game coaching than Miles has to this point.  Nee was good at letting talent win games with an extremely up-tempo and improvisational system and Doc was incredible, at times, churning out .500 teams with awful talent.  Do I think there are other coaches who could x and o their way to a decent seed in the NCAA tournament with this current roster?  Absolutely.  Do I think there are other coaches who could recruit guys this good to Nebraska?  Hell no.  Sometimes you gotta dance with the one who brung ya.  

 

Cough Cough INDIANA?