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Expectations for the next 5 games?

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17 hours ago, jayschool said:

This, but I like our chances in nearly dead arenas called "home courts" by the other team. So PSU is definitely in play.

 

it's possible maybe that people show up to a 7pm EST game at Penn St.

Also, we haven't won at Penn St since Miles' first year and this is arguably the best team Chambers has put on the court.

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30 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

it's possible maybe that people show up to a 7pm EST game at Penn St.

Also, we haven't won at Penn St since Miles' first year and this is arguably the best team Chambers has put on the court.

 

Couple questions...

 

1.  Are students back for the Wisco game?

 

2.  Do we know if PSU students will be back?

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31 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

it's possible maybe that people show up to a 7pm EST game at Penn St.

Also, we haven't won at Penn St since Miles' first year and this is arguably the best team Chambers has put on the court.

 

Also, it’s a Friday night game.  Had it been a Monday-Thursday then maybe lower crowds.

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Just now, uneblinstu said:

Yes to both. Do Penn State students turn out for basketball games? What about games on a Friday night?

 

The bigger question for PSU students on a Friday night game is... “Do they serve adult beverages?”

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19 hours ago, hskr4life said:

3.  Third set of 5 (WIS, @PennSt, ILL, MICH, @tOSU)

  • I am going to say that 3-2 is what we should do.  4-1 is possible as is 5-0 if we play well enough.  What say you?
  • Actual Result-- ??
  • Performed ??

 

KenPom says:

 

Tue Jan 9   77 Wisconsin W, 67-64 63 60% Home   ×  
Fri Jan 12   41 Penn St. L, 76-67 71 22% Away   × a.gif
Mon Jan 15   87 Illinois W, 75-70 72 64% Home   ×  
Thu Jan 18   32 Michigan L, 67-64 64 41% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 22   33 Ohio St. L, 77-67 69 18% Away   × a.gif

 

The Michigan game is the one that could flip it to 3-2.

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27 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

KenPom says:

 

Tue Jan 9   77 Wisconsin W, 67-64 63 60% Home   ×  
Fri Jan 12   41 Penn St. L, 76-67 71 22% Away   × a.gif
Mon Jan 15   87 Illinois W, 75-70 72 64% Home   ×  
Thu Jan 18   32 Michigan L, 67-64 64 41% Home   × b.gif
Mon Jan 22   33 Ohio St. L, 77-67 69 18% Away   × a.gif

 

The Michigan game is the one that could flip it to 3-2.

 

Yeah well KenPom is also in 7th place in the HHC challenge!  :lol:

 

It also must be said that I am in 42nd place... but hey, I moved up one this week! <_<

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Our losses:

 

by 23 @ #72 St. John's on 11/16

by 9 vs. #64 UCF on 11/23

by 29 @ #2 MSU on 12/3

by 10  @ #20 CU on 12/9

by 1 vs. #7 KU on 12/16

by 12 @ #5 Purdue on 1/6

 

Six losses: 4 true road games, 1 neutral, 1 at home.

Average margin of defeat:  14 points.  Average Kenpom ranking: 28.3.  First 3 losses: 20.3 pts; 46 Kenpom.  Last 3 losses: 7.7 pts; 10.7 Kenpom.

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On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 3:52 PM, hskr4life said:

Well... 4-1 in the next 5 next 5.  I like looking at this season in 5 game increments.

 

1.  First set of 5 (BC, @MSU, Minny, @CU, KU)

  • Many were saying most likely 1-4.  0-5 would be really rough.  A few people thought we could catch someone sleeping and get to 2-3.
  • Actual Result-- 2-3.  Very well could have been 3-2 and 4-1 was on the table with a few minutes to go at CU. 
  • Performed better than expectations in this set of 5.

2.  Next set of 5 (Stetson, UTSA, Del St, @NW, @PUR)

  • Many were saying that 3-2 was most likely.  4-1 was possible and 5-0 was not very likely.  2-3 was also possible if we dropped a sleeper in December.
  • Actual Result-- 4-1 and gosh darn it we just needed to get over that hump at PUR.  Got caught sleeping at home a few times, but woke up and finished the game.
  • Performed at or a little better than expectations in this set of 5.

3.  Third set of 5 (WIS, @PennSt, ILL, MICH, @tOSU)

  • I am going to say that 3-2 is what we should do.  4-1 is possible as is 5-0 if we play well enough.  What say you?
  • Actual Result-- ??
  • Performed ??

 

Last 15 games of our regular season broken down into 5 game increments:

 

Current 5 hopes:  3-2 (@Purdue L, Wisc W, @PSU L, Ill W, Mich W)

Penultimate 5 hopes:  2-3 (@ Ohio State L, @ Rutgers W, Iowa W, @ Wisconsin L, @ Minnesota L)

Final 5 hopes: 5-0  (Rutgers W, Maryland W, @ Illinois W, Indiana W, PSU W)

 

Final record:  21-10 (12-6)

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4 minutes ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

Last 15 games of our regular season broken down into 5 game increments:

 

Current 5 hopes:  3-2 (@Purdue L, Wisc W, @PSU L, Ill W, Mich W)

Penultimate 5 hopes:  2-3 (@ Ohio State L, @ Rutgers W, Iowa W, @ Wisconsin L, @ Minnesota L)

Final 5 hopes: 5-0  (Rutgers W, Maryland W, @ Illinois W, Indiana W, PSU W)

 

Final record:  21-10 (12-6)

Just ran that through the generator. Assuming their defaults win the rest of the games, NU would be the 4. They'd face the winner of #5 Michigan vs. #12 Northwestern or #13 Iowa.

 

FTR, I had to flip 3 games from the default for NU to get to this scenario. It might have been 4...

Edited by uneblinstu

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On 1/8/2018 at 12:27 PM, hskr4life said:

 

Yeah well KenPom is also in 7th place in the HHC challenge!  :lol:

 

It also must be said that I am in 42nd place... but hey, I moved up one this week! <_<

 

I'm somewhere just below 40 and have moved up about 1 spot each of the last few weeks.  If the season extends another 9 or 10 months, I should be right in the thick of things.  :)  Look out KenPom, I'm on the way.

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On 1/10/2018 at 4:10 PM, Norm Peterson said:

 

Last 15 games of our regular season broken down into 5 game increments:

 

Current 5 hopes:  3-2 (@Purdue L, Wisc W, @PSU L, Ill W, Mich W)

Penultimate 5 hopes:  2-3 (@ Ohio State L, @ Rutgers W, Iowa W, @ Wisconsin L, @ Minnesota L)

Final 5 hopes: 5-0  (Rutgers W, Maryland W, @ Illinois W, Indiana W, PSU W)

 

Final record:  21-10 (12-6)

 

Current 5 hopes: Nailed it.

 

Next 5 hopes:  Gotta get 2.  Cannot drop a game to a Rutgers team outside the top 100, home or away.  If we could pick a 3rd team to beat this next 5 besides Iowa and Rutgers? Ohio State, no question.

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I know it is what we do, but it is difficult to project out beyond the next game.  Believe it or not, we CAN win at Ohio State.  It will be extremely difficult, but if our players and coaches put on their big boy pants and play to the level that they are capable of playing, it is a winnable game.  Then, and only then, can we look to the next game...whoever that is. 

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7 hours ago, Norm Peterson said:

Cannot drop a game to a Rutgers team outside the top 100, home or away.

 

Things change as teams win/lose but losing at home to Iowa ATM would be worse than Rutgers on the road. 

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Agree with the sentiment that you have to evaluate this a game at a time.  But...the big picture is that 4 of the next 5 are on the road (Ohio St., Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota).  I don't think you have to win 3 out of 4 or heck even 2 out of 4; however, the reality is that with a down Big 10 conference, we really need to have some wins that separate us from the rest of the bubble.  We've checked one box with Michigan but winning a few more road games could really help separate us from the pack.  There are a lot of teams that win most of their games at home - look at Maryland, they are a bubble team and have only lost once at home as well.  I think winning 2 out of 4 of these games on the road along with the Iowa game (a must) would go a long ways towards putting us closer to being on the right side of the bubble.  And, lets be honest, outside of Ohio St, these are road games that are very winnable.  That team that showed up last night can win any game left on their schedule.  Consistently having that team show up is key!

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46 minutes ago, Nebrasketball1979 said:

Agree with the sentiment that you have to evaluate this a game at a time.  But...the big picture is that 4 of the next 5 are on the road (Ohio St., Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota).  I don't think you have to win 3 out of 4 or heck even 2 out of 4; however, the reality is that with a down Big 10 conference, we really need to have some wins that separate us from the rest of the bubble.  We've checked one box with Michigan but winning a few more road games could really help separate us from the pack.  There are a lot of teams that win most of their games at home - look at Maryland, they are a bubble team and have only lost once at home as well.  I think winning 2 out of 4 of these games on the road along with the Iowa game (a must) would go a long ways towards putting us closer to being on the right side of the bubble.  And, lets be honest, outside of Ohio St, these are road games that are very winnable.  That team that showed up last night can win any game left on their schedule.  Consistently having that team show up is key!

 

The team that showed up last night is a very, very good team.  The team that showed up last night is the best Nebraska basketball team I've seen in 20 years.  Maybe 25 years.  

 

We can get points from so many different places.  And in so many different ways.

 

For some strange reason, having a few guys on your roster who can shoot really seems to make a difference.

Edited by Norm Peterson

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