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Exhibition Game: Nebraska at Mississippi St

hhcmatt

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hhcmatt

hhcmatt

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bartorvik.com has a very kenpom-esque site but is free. He also has projections up for this year.

Nebraska at 92, Miss St at 42. Just based on that the point spread for this game would be Miss St -9.  It remains to be seen how much the teams are trying to win vs trying to test out lineups.

 

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Mississippi+St.&year=2018

 

 

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tcp
tcp

cool. I'll try to go to this game since it's right up the road a bit.    If I do, I'll post  a report. 

hhcmatt
hhcmatt

I really really really miss Windows Movie Maker, the MS Paint of movie editing. Trying to find something to simply spice in sound to video was ridiculous though an exercise I needed to undertake.

dskurz
dskurz

So anyone going that will be streaming via Periscope?

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Dead Dog Alley

Dead Dog Alley

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23 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

bartorvik.com has a very kenpom-esque site but is free. He also has projections up for this year.

Nebraska at 92, Miss St at 42. Just based on that the point spread for this game would be Miss St -9.  It remains to be seen how much the teams are trying to win vs trying to test out lineups.

 

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nebraska&year=2018

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Mississippi+St.&year=2018

 

 

 

That site has our projected wins at 13.3 games this year (average probability of winning * number of games), not counting the second and third Advocare games, and 6.1 games in the conference, with us only being favorites in two conference games (Rutgers and Illinois).

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Norm Peterson

Norm Peterson

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3 minutes ago, Dead Dog Alley said:

 

That site has our projected wins at 13.3 games this year (average probability of winning * number of games), not counting the second and third Advocare games, and 6.1 games in the conference, with us only being favorites in two conference games (Rutgers and Illinois).

 

And that confused me.  How is that he projects us winning 6.1 games in conference when he only has us favored in 2 of them? 

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49r

49r

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Bart Torvik also has us projected as the only B1G team with a losing record overall which speaks to the strength of our non-con schedule.  People have bemoaned the move to 20 conference games, the argument being that it will cause teams to drop home and home matchups against P5 opponents in order to satisfy the need to fill home dates.

 

I'd argue that Nebraska probably needs to soften up it's non-con a bit because the teams we are competing against at the bottom of the B1G table have an advantage over us when it comes to postseason possibilities because a below .500 finish in the overall record automatically disqualifies us.

 

I appreciate Miles' philosophy of scheduling and having faith in himself and his players - building a schedule favorable to getting a post season bid - but we gotta get a winning record first one of these seasons.  I'd rather win 19 games with a softer non-con and just get an NIT bid than win 14 against a tough non-con and get locked out of the postseason altogether.  Gotta walk before you run.  Look at Creighton's non conference schedule last year for an example of what I'm talking about.  All they had to do was eke out a win at home against a decent Wisconsin team (that always starts slow and progresses as the season goes on) then coast through the rest of a charmin soft schedule to a top-15 ranking.

 

Here's the T-Rank for their non con opponents last year:

209

18

171

104

71

236

129

107

102

346

232

116

 

Here's ours:

289

n/r

94

42

21

46

48

153

29

5

184

330

 

We were 6-6 in games that the committee counts in our non-con last year.

Edited by 49r
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hhcmatt

hhcmatt

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1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

And that confused me.  How is that he projects us winning 6.1 games in conference when he only has us favored in 2 of them? 

 

 

It's the difference between looking at individual games vs looking how you'll do given a group of games.

DATE     OPPONENT T-RANK LINE RESULT REC. CONF. G-SCORE +/-
TOURNAMENT QUALITY TESTS IN BOLD
Sat 11-11 H   244 Eastern Illinois Nebraska -13.8, 79-66 (88%)          
Mon 11-13 H   309 North Texas Nebraska -18.3, 83-65 (93%)          
Thu 11-16 A   60 St. John's St. John's -8.4, 83-75 (75%)          
Sun 11-19 H   251 North Dakota Nebraska -14.6, 82-67 (88%)          
Thu 11-23 N   43 UCF UCF -5.2, 73-68 (68%)          
Wed 11-29 H   85 Boston College Nebraska -3.7, 78-74 (62%)          
Sun 12-03 A   1 Michigan St. Michigan St. -20.7, 84-63 (95%)     *    
Tue 12-05 H   39 Minnesota Minnesota -2.2, 76-74 (58%)     *    
Sat 12-09 A   63 Creighton Creighton -7.8, 79-72 (74%)          
Sat 12-16 H   6 Kansas Kansas -9.4, 79-69 (79%)          
Wed 12-20 H   297 UTSA Nebraska -17.1, 81-64 (92%)          
Fri 12-22 H   343 Delaware St. Nebraska -21.8, 81-59 (96%)          
Fri 12-29 H   324 Stetson Nebraska -20.6, 88-68 (94%)          
Tue 01-02 A   34 Northwestern Northwestern -10.7, 77-66 (82%)     *    
Sat 01-06 A   11 Purdue Purdue -16.1, 82-66 (90%)     *    
Tue 01-09 H   48 Wisconsin Wisconsin -0.9, 67-66 (53%)     *    
Fri 01-12 A   56 Penn St. Penn St. -8.8, 79-70 (77%)     *    
Mon 01-15 H   66 Illinois Nebraska -0.8, 72-71 (53%)     *    
Thu 01-18 H   31 Michigan Michigan -4.1, 72-68 (65%)     *    
Mon 01-22 A   58 Ohio St. Ohio St. -7.9, 76-69 (75%)     *    
Wed 01-24 A   103 Rutgers Rutgers -2.6, 71-69 (59%)     *    
Sat 01-27 H   53 Iowa Iowa -0.7, 76-75 (52%)     *    
Mon 01-29 A   48 Wisconsin Wisconsin -8.3, 70-62 (78%)     *    
Tue 02-06 A   39 Minnesota Minnesota -10.6, 80-70 (81%)     *    
Sat 02-10 H   103 Rutgers Nebraska -5.3, 73-68 (68%)     *    
Tue 02-13 H   32 Maryland Maryland -4.0, 75-71 (64%)     *    
Sun 02-18 A   66 Illinois Illinois -7.2, 75-68 (74%)     *    
Tue 02-20 H   49 Indiana Indiana -1.0, 75-74 (53%)     *    
Sun 02-25 H   56 Penn St. Penn St. -0.5, 75-74 (52%)     *

 

The lower the projected point spread, the lower confidence we have in declaring whether it's going to be a win or loss.  I highlighted the 7 games where the projected outcome is less than 3. Individually we're projected to go 1-6 in those games.  Overall though if I'm telling you we have 7 "coin-flip" conference games, games that could come down to the last shot, you can assume that we should win half of those (3.5).  We know that coinflip isn't quite 50/50...so let's use a weighted coin. We can project we will win 3 of those 7 games.  The 6-12 projection reflectd applying this weighted coin flip applied to our entire conference schedule.

 

If someone has a clearer/better explanation, please supply. I'm sure kenpom or someone else has a blog post about it.

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aphilso1

aphilso1

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13 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

 

It's the difference between looking at individual games vs looking how you'll do given a group of games.

DATE     OPPONENT T-RANK LINE RESULT REC. CONF. G-SCORE +/-
TOURNAMENT QUALITY TESTS IN BOLD
Sat 11-11 H   244 Eastern Illinois Nebraska -13.8, 79-66 (88%)          
Mon 11-13 H   309 North Texas Nebraska -18.3, 83-65 (93%)          
Thu 11-16 A   60 St. John's St. John's -8.4, 83-75 (75%)          
Sun 11-19 H   251 North Dakota Nebraska -14.6, 82-67 (88%)          
Thu 11-23 N   43 UCF UCF -5.2, 73-68 (68%)          
Wed 11-29 H   85 Boston College Nebraska -3.7, 78-74 (62%)          
Sun 12-03 A   1 Michigan St. Michigan St. -20.7, 84-63 (95%)     *    
Tue 12-05 H   39 Minnesota Minnesota -2.2, 76-74 (58%)     *    
Sat 12-09 A   63 Creighton Creighton -7.8, 79-72 (74%)          
Sat 12-16 H   6 Kansas Kansas -9.4, 79-69 (79%)          
Wed 12-20 H   297 UTSA Nebraska -17.1, 81-64 (92%)          
Fri 12-22 H   343 Delaware St. Nebraska -21.8, 81-59 (96%)          
Fri 12-29 H   324 Stetson Nebraska -20.6, 88-68 (94%)          
Tue 01-02 A   34 Northwestern Northwestern -10.7, 77-66 (82%)     *    
Sat 01-06 A   11 Purdue Purdue -16.1, 82-66 (90%)     *    
Tue 01-09 H   48 Wisconsin Wisconsin -0.9, 67-66 (53%)     *    
Fri 01-12 A   56 Penn St. Penn St. -8.8, 79-70 (77%)     *    
Mon 01-15 H   66 Illinois Nebraska -0.8, 72-71 (53%)     *    
Thu 01-18 H   31 Michigan Michigan -4.1, 72-68 (65%)     *    
Mon 01-22 A   58 Ohio St. Ohio St. -7.9, 76-69 (75%)     *    
Wed 01-24 A   103 Rutgers Rutgers -2.6, 71-69 (59%)     *    
Sat 01-27 H   53 Iowa Iowa -0.7, 76-75 (52%)     *    
Mon 01-29 A   48 Wisconsin Wisconsin -8.3, 70-62 (78%)     *    
Tue 02-06 A   39 Minnesota Minnesota -10.6, 80-70 (81%)     *    
Sat 02-10 H   103 Rutgers Nebraska -5.3, 73-68 (68%)     *    
Tue 02-13 H   32 Maryland Maryland -4.0, 75-71 (64%)     *    
Sun 02-18 A   66 Illinois Illinois -7.2, 75-68 (74%)     *    
Tue 02-20 H   49 Indiana Indiana -1.0, 75-74 (53%)     *    
Sun 02-25 H   56 Penn St. Penn St. -0.5, 75-74 (52%)     *

 

The lower the projected point spread, the lower confidence we have in declaring whether it's going to be a win or loss.  I highlighted the 7 games where the projected outcome is less than 3. Individually we're projected to go 1-6 in those games.  Overall though if I'm telling you we have 7 "coin-flip" conference games, games that could come down to the last shot, you can assume that we should win half of those (3.5).  We know that coinflip isn't quite 50/50...so let's use a weighted coin. We can project we will win 3 of those 7 games.  The 6-12 projection reflects applying this weighted coin flip applied to our entire conference schedule.

 

If someone has a clearer/better explanation, please supply. I'm sure kenpom or someone else has a blog post about it.

 

That's a really solid explanation, Dimes.  I heard a professional better on the radio make a similar comment regarding Nebraska's pre-season projected football win total.  It was something that (at the time) appeared really low, like around 5.5 games.  And a lot of fans were calling in and going bananas, saying "how can we only be projected to win 5 games when we're favored in 8 of them?"  The answer was because Nebraska was expected to lose three games by a wide margin, win two games by a wide margin, have one game as a slight underdog and six as a slight favorite.  The odds were that Nebraska would't actually go 6-1 in those close games, but instead go something in the neighborhood of 3.5-2.5.  Hence the low overall win total.  And in hindsight, Vegas knows what they're doing.

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Dead Dog Alley

Dead Dog Alley

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1 hour ago, Norm Peterson said:

 

And that confused me.  How is that he projects us winning 6.1 games in conference when he only has us favored in 2 of them? 

 

Here's a way of thinking to clear it up.  If we were given a 49% chance to win each and every single conference game, we would be favored to win 0 games, but projected to win 8.82 games (0.49*18).

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nuhusker7

nuhusker7

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Here is a video of Tim talking about the game tomorrow.

 

A couple highlights:

1. He said they really wanted to have a true road game so the team can have an opportunity to practice the whole travel aspect of a road game.

 

2. When asked what he wanted to get out of this game the most he answered "I want the team to learn how to win." He seemed like he is coaching to win the game as opposed to getting everyone experience and trying out new combinations.

 

Edited to mention that these comments were in the full video in the link and not the short video on the tweet.

Edited by nuhusker7
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