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49r

2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

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So, for a while now my thought process has been "you are what your KenPom ranking says you are" and for the most part since 2014 that sentiment has been proven true.  If the Huskers hope to get somewhere with this season, the upcoming stretch of 4 games will be a chance for them to prove they're better than that.  To that end, my philosophy for the next two weeks is going to have to be not looking at the results so much in terms of wins and losses, but instead I will be looking to see how well we perform against the KenPom spread which, for the next 4 games is +17, +6, +11 and +12 respectively.

 

Three W's in a row leading into and three fairly likely wins after this stretch of ranked teams should help us weather the upcoming storm, so let's look at the next two weeks as the perfect opportunity to make a statement about what this team is all about this season!

 

An additional note, KenPom has updated our overall predicted record to be 15-16 so find a way to flip one or two more games in the next 24-ish games and the postseason is a virtual lock given our NC SOS.  Here is today's KenPom update:

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-30-17

==========================
 

B1G (0-0):

6. Michigan State (10)

13. Purdue (17)

26. Minnesota (36)
32. Wisconsin (31)
36. Maryland (41)
39. Penn State (40)
44. Michigan (32)
51. Northwestern (18)
72. Iowa (54)
76. Ohio State (78)

80. Indiana (65)

103. Nebraska (98)

109. Illinois (104)

112. Rutgers (125)
 
Non-Conference (6-2):
205. Eastern Illinois - W
311. North Texas - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
50. @St. John's - L
 
236. North Dakota - W
 
---Advocare Invitational---
73. UCF - L
305. Marist - W
227. Long Beach State - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
97. Boston College - W
 
33. @Creighton
 
---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
1. Kansas
 
234. UTSA
350. Delaware State
307. Stetson

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34 minutes ago, 49r said:

An additional note, KenPom has updated our overall predicted record to be 15-16 so find a way to flip one or two more games in the next 24-ish games and the postseason is a virtual lock given our NC SOS.

 

Maybe.

Easiest current path to 17 wins which gives us road wins over Rutgers and Illinois with home wins over conference opponents that aren't exactly setting the world on fire.  Not sure that gets us into the NIT.  18-19 wins no matter how we do it is a NIT lock though. 18-19 wins over the right teams and you start to drift towards the NCAA bubble.

 

Fri Dec 22   350 Delaware St. W, 80-56 66 98% Home
Fri Dec 29   307 Stetson W, 82-66 70 93% Home
Wed Dec 20   234 UTSA W, 80-68 71 86% Home
Sat Feb 10   112 Rutgers W, 67-63 66 65% Home
Mon Jan 15   109 Illinois W, 75-71 72 64% Home
Tue Feb 20   80 Indiana W, 74-71 67 58% Home
Sat Jan 27   72 Iowa W, 73-72 69 55% Home
Thu Jan 18   44 Michigan L, 67-65 62 42% Home
Wed Jan 24   112 Rutgers L, 66-64 66 40% Away
Sun Feb 18   109 Illinois L, 75-72 72 39% Away
Sun Feb 25   39 Penn St. L, 74-70 71 37% Home

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16 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Maybe.

 

 

Yeah, after I posted that I gave it a little more thought and our non-con isn't as strong as it seems (due almost entirely to the Advocare Invitational being a drag unlike the Wooden Legacy was last year) so just getting to above .500 probably won't put us in NIT lock territory.

 

But it probably would mean a CBI invite I'd imagine, whether we'd pursue that is certainly up for debate.

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KenPom shows 11 of our conference games as being within 5 points or less (either wins or losses)  8 those 11 are home games.  Protect the vault on these toss up games and then flip 2 others and we likely dance.  The trick will be to stay upbeat and confident after the 1st 4 conference games which are all tough.  We could go 0-4 and not be dead, but we may feel like it and the negativity might grow.  3 road games, Michigan State, Purdue and Northwestern and Minnesota at home. 

 

I am stating the obvious, but to me the Minnesota game if the most important of the next 4.  (And believe me I hate Creighton and would love to beat them)

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I'm waiting to see us beat a quality team first. BC maybe counts, I suppose. 

 

But so far our wins are against cannon fodder, and the only two teams we've faced that are NIT caliber destroyed us. 

 

I'm still looking at the schedule as "what  will it take to keep Miles another year" on the assumption that his seat is toasty. 

 

And I think to do that NU's going to have to finish no lower than 75 on KENPOM. Doable, but I'm still not seeing that team yet. 

 

 

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Worst case on Jan. 7 puts us at 9-8 and 0-4 in conference. That's also very possible.

 

@ MSU

Minnesota

@ Crayton

Kansas

UTSA

DSU

Hatters

@ Northwestern

@ Purdue

 

That means an 8-6 finish just to get to 17.

 

That written, any unexpected W's or L's over the next nine games could turn the season in a completely unexpected direction. Of course, last year's conference start turned to mush very quickly.

 

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Wisconsin gets housed at home by 25 (and the game was not as close as the score would lead you to believe), is now 3-5 and is still a top 50 KenPom team.  Goes to show you the bias towards past years results and how difficult it is to make big moves for better or worse.  Which helps explain how Nebraska only drops 2 spots after yesterday.  Here is today's KenPom update:

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-04-17

==========================
 

B1G (0-1):

3. Michigan State (10) - L

10. Purdue (17)

23. Minnesota (36)
33. Penn State (40)
40. Maryland (41)
42. Michigan (32)
47. Wisconsin (31)
56. Northwestern (18)
61. Ohio State (78)
74. Iowa (54)

89. Indiana (65)

96. Illinois (104)

105. Nebraska (98)

114. Rutgers (125)
 
Non-Conference (6-2):
211. Eastern Illinois - W
287. North Texas - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
46. @St. John's - L
 
239. North Dakota - W
 
---Advocare Invitational---
72. UCF - L
307. Marist - W
241. Long Beach State - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
97. Boston College - W
 
36. @Creighton
 
---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
2. Kansas
 
235. UTSA
350. Delaware State
310. Stetson

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Man, these are so much more fun to do after a big win.  Right now KenPom projects a 16-15 record for us and that's great, but if we get more of this #Glynnsanity going forward, I think we will have a legit shot at 20 wins.  Here is today's KenPom update:

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 12-06-17

==========================
 

B1G (1-1):

3. Michigan State (10) - L

9. Purdue (17)

29. Minnesota (36) - W
40. Maryland (41)
41. Penn State (40)
43. Michigan (32)
47. Wisconsin (31)
57. Northwestern (18)
58. Ohio State (78)

82. Indiana (65)

84. Iowa (54)

95. Illinois (104)

 

92. Nebraska (98)

110. Rutgers (125)
 
Non-Conference (6-2):
210. Eastern Illinois - W
286. North Texas - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
45. @St. John's - L
 
246. North Dakota - W
 
---Advocare Invitational---
73. UCF - L
308. Marist - W
238. Long Beach State - W
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
98. Boston College - W
 
31. @Creighton
 
---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
2. Kansas
 
229. UTSA
349. Delaware State
314. Stetson

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8 minutes ago, kleitus said:

Current rpi is 55.

 

Just saying.... :)

 

 

Yep.  It's still a little early for RPI to be worth much, but it should start being meaningful soon.  Good call!

 

RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I

 

5 5 Michigan St. Big Ten 8-1 1-0 3-1 4-0 0-0
29 29 Purdue Big Ten 8-2 2-0 1-2 5-0 0-0
49 43 Minnesota Big Ten 8-2 1-1 2-0 5-1 0-0
55 83 Nebraska Big Ten 7-3 0-2 2-1 5-0 0-0
62 63 Ohio St. Big Ten 7-3 1-0 1-2 5-1 0-0
70 72 Maryland Big Ten 7-3 1-1 2-1 4-1 0-0
75 65 Michigan Big Ten 7-3 0-2 1-1 5-0 1-0
90 78 Wisconsin Big Ten 4-5 1-1 0-2 3-2 0-0
128 146 Northwestern Big Ten 5-4 0-2 1-1 4-1 0-0
140 128 Rutgers Big Ten 6-3 0-1 0-0 5-2 1-0
145 140 Penn St. Big Ten 7-3 1-1 1-1 5-1 0-0
178 170 Indiana Big Ten 5-4 0-2 0-0 5-2 0-0
201 218 Illinois Big Ten 6-3 0-2 0-0 5-1 1-0
244 241 Iowa Big Ten 4-5 0-2 1-2 3-1 0-0

 

 

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The RPI seems about right from how people have played though.  Maybe drop us down a few more spots, but the Big 10 hasn’t been world beaters this year.

 

Thats the nice thing about this year is that we aren’t going to have a bunch of high quality OR low quality teams.  Means we can finish higher by winning a few more games, but there isn’t really a “bad” loss.  Iowa is goin to be a bad loss for people, but I go back to what I said at the beginning of the year.  I don’t think Nebraska or Rutgers finishes last.

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...and just because it's somewhat relevant this week:

 

RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I

 

6 12 Villanova Big East 9-0 1-0 5-0 3-0 0-0
15 15 Seton Hall Big East 7-1 1-0 2-1 4-0 0-0
21 19 Xavier Big East 7-1 1-0 1-1 5-0 0-0
22 30 St. John's (NY) Big East 8-1 0-0 3-1 4-0 1-0
32 53 Butler Big East 7-2 0-1 2-1 5-0 0-0
34 28 Providence Big East 6-2 0-1 2-0 4-1 0-0
64 58 Creighton Big East 6-2 1-1 1-1 4-0 0-0
106 125 Marquette Big East 6-3 0-0 2-1 4-2 0-0
198 188 Georgetown Big East 6-0 1-0 0-0 5-0 0-0
280 272 DePaul Big East 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-1 0-0
                 

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1 hour ago, 49r said:

...and just because it's somewhat relevant this week:

 

RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I

 

6 12 Villanova Big East 9-0 1-0 5-0 3-0 0-0
15 15 Seton Hall Big East 7-1 1-0 2-1 4-0 0-0
21 19 Xavier Big East 7-1 1-0 1-1 5-0 0-0
22 30 St. John's (NY) Big East 8-1 0-0 3-1 4-0 1-0
32 53 Butler Big East 7-2 0-1 2-1 5-0 0-0
34 28 Providence Big East 6-2 0-1 2-0 4-1 0-0
64 58 Creighton Big East 6-2 1-1 1-1 4-0 0-0
106 125 Marquette Big East 6-3 0-0 2-1 4-2 0-0
198 188 Georgetown Big East 6-0 1-0 0-0 5-0 0-0
280 272 DePaul Big East 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-1 0-0
                 

 

Interesting......

 

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14. Iowa
Overall record: 4-5
Big Ten record: 0-2
Couch AP ballot ranking: Unranked
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: South Dakota State (80-72, neutral), Louisiana (80-71, neutral)
Best win: UAB (95-85, neutral)
Worst loss: Louisian
NCAA tournament odds: 3 percent
Projected NCAA tournament seed: None

The skinny: The Hawkeyes were supposed to be an NCAA tournament bubble team. It turns out last year’s touted freshman group surrounding Peter Jok was more reliant on Jok than we realized. Other than 6-9 forward Tyler Cook, this team lacks playmakers and difference-makers on both ends of the court.

 

Nelson.jpg

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Seriously, though...this is clearly just an attempt to make MSU's 2-0 start look better by bumping BOTH Rutgers and Nebraska way over what they should be slotted in anybody's real power rankings.

 

But, I do get a kick out of seeing Iowa at the bottom. :) 

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He may have also just used the RPI with a few minor shuffles:

 

RANK PREVIOUS SCHOOL CONFERENCE RECORD ROAD NEUTRAL HOME NON DIV I
4 5 Michigan St. Big Ten 8-1 1-0 3-1 4-0 0-0
26 29 Purdue Big Ten 8-2 2-0 1-2 5-0 0-0
46 49 Minnesota Big Ten 8-2 1-1 2-0 5-1 0-0
51 55 Nebraska Big Ten 7-3 0-2 2-1 5-0 0-0
66 62 Ohio St. Big Ten 7-3 1-0 1-2 5-1 0-0
72 70 Maryland Big Ten 7-3 1-1 2-1 4-1 0-0
84 75 Michigan Big Ten 7-3 0-2 1-1 5-0 1-0
91 90 Wisconsin Big Ten 4-6 1-2 0-2 3-2 0-0
117 128 Northwestern Big Ten 5-4 0-2 1-1 4-1 0-0
143 145 Penn St. Big Ten 7-3 1-1 1-1 5-1 0-0
157 140 Rutgers Big Ten 6-3 0-1 0-0 5-2 1-0
175 178 Indiana Big Ten 5-4 0-2 0-0 5-2 0-0
183 201 Illinois Big Ten 7-3 0-2 0-0 6-1 1-0
247 244 Iowa Big Ten 4-5 0-2 1-2 3-1 0-0

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10 minutes ago, 49r said:

Seriously, though...this is clearly just an attempt to make MSU's 2-0 start look better by bumping BOTH Rutgers and Nebraska way over what they should be slotted in anybody's real power rankings.

 

But, I do get a kick out of seeing Iowa at the bottom. :) 

 

I mean, we do boast one of the strongest 1-1 records in the conference with our win over Minny.  We played two of the top 3 in the conference and came out 1-1.  That's pretty nice.

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