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2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

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2 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

You know it isn't that we are going to be bad, it is that this league is just going to be very good.

 

If I read all these preseason things correctly.  104 or so isn't horrible coming off of last year and everybody knowing that Tai is gone.

 

True, if what you're talking about is how some outsider is evaluating us in the pre-season.

 

But that is NOT going to be an acceptable finish to the year.

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28 minutes ago, Silverbacked1 said:

You know it isn't that we are going to be bad, it is that this league is just going to be very good.

 

If I read all these preseason things correctly.  104 or so isn't horrible coming off of last year and everybody knowing that Tai is gone.

 

Well, not really Silver...

 

If you go by KenPom's rankings, Penn State (picked smack dab in the middle of the B1G) would finish next to last in the Big 12.  Top 4 Wisconsin wouldn't even make it to the top half of the Big 12.

 

This year, the Big Ten is just kinda average.

 

Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play

Conference Rating Conference Rating
1 Big 12 Conference +18.54 17 Horizon League -2.59
2 Big East Conference +15.05 18 Summit League -3.38
3 Southeastern Conference +14.93 19 Patriot League -3.81
4 Atlantic Coast Conference +14.68 20 Conference USA -4.12
5 Big Ten Conference +13.77 21 Western Athletic Conference -4.82
6 Pac 12 Conference +10.71 22 America East Conference -4.82
7 American Athletic Conference +7.82 23 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference -4.83
8 Atlantic 10 Conference +3.34 24 Ohio Valley Conference -5.19
9 Mountain West Conference +3.05 25 Big South Conference -6.09
10 Missouri Valley Conference +2.99 26 Big Sky Conference -6.68
11 Colonial Athletic Association +0.52 27 Big West Conference -7.29
12 West Coast Conference +0.50 28 Southland Conference -7.97
13 Ivy League -0.44 29 Atlantic Sun Conference -8.38
14 Sun Belt Conference -0.91 30 Northeast Conference -11.39
15 Southern Conference -1.68 31 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -16.70
16 Mid American Conference -2.24 32 Southwestern Athletic Conference -17.98

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The Big 12 (if the preseason rankings hold true) could see 8 or 9 teams in the tourney and the other one or two in the NIT.  Now, THAT is a strong conference.

Edited by 49r

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4 hours ago, 49r said:

The Big 12 (if the preseason rankings hold true) could see 8 or 9 teams in the tourney and the other one or two in the NIT.  Now, THAT is a strong conference.

 

I will go on record as saying that scenario will *not* happen in 2018. But, I'd imagine the ten-team Big 12 will have more tourney teams per capita than the 14-team Big Ten.

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Living in Iowa, I fully expect Iowa State to be down this year.  If NU doesn't 'win' the secret scrimmage I'd be really disappointed.  Iowa will also be much better than Iowa State.  ISU is ranked that high in the pre-season based on their performance the past 3-4 years.  It wouldn't surprise me to see ISU's kenpom ranking be greater than 85 at the end of the season.

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On 10/24/2017 at 11:37 AM, 49r said:

PSA for stats geeks out there.  Ken Pomeroy will be fielding questions on Reddit this Thursday at Noon CST.  Could be a fun time....if you're into that kind of thing....

 

 

 

Don't forget, KenPom will answer your questions in an hour!

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In the interest of making the standings a little simpler to read I changed up the formatting, so for now I have moved the season starting ranking to after the team name but kept the color coding.  Red indicates an NCAA tourney team from last year, Blue indicates NIT.  Now that is out of the way, here is the KenPom rankings update after game 1!  Two changes of note today, Maryland jumps ahead of Penn State and Nebraska slips behind Illinois.

 


 

KenPom rankings as of 11-12-17

==========================
 
B1G (0-0):
9. Michigan State (10)
17. Purdue (17)
29. Northwestern (18)

31. Wisconsin (31)

35. Michigan (32)

36. Minnesota (36)
39. Maryland (41)
45. Penn State (40)
54. Iowa (54)
74. Ohio State (78)
78. Indiana (65)
92. Illinois (104)
102. Nebraska (98)
124. Rutgers (125)
 
Non-Conference (1-0):
195. Eastern Illinois - W
299. North Texas
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
55. @St. John's
 
218. North Dakota
 
---Advocare Invitational---
61. UCF F4
14. / 308. West Virginia / Marist
55. / 73. / 72. / 232. St. John's / Oregon State / Missouri / Long Beach State
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
94. Boston College
 
42. @Creighton
 
---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
5. Kansas
 
283. UTSA
347. Delaware State
312. Stetson

 

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Northwestern had a nearly identical disappointing win as ours last night and they made a precipitous drop.

 

18 Northwestern 79, 257 Loyola MD 75 [80]

Friday, November 10, 2017 · 8:30 pm ET · Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 T
Loyola MD 9 15 31 20 75
Northwestern 22 15 18 23 79
Loyola MDNorthwestern
              Loyola MD (0-1)               
    Name Min ORtg %Ps Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OR DR A TO Blk Stl PF
6-8 214 Sr 22 Cam Gregory 38 108 22 18 6-11 0-0 6-7 4 7 2 4 0 1 4
6-4 179 So 10 Andrew Kostecka 33 118 23 22 5-9 3-5 3-6 1 3 2 2 0 3 4
6-6 196 Jr 5 James Fives 30 99 12 5 0-2 1-2 2-2 3 8 2 2 0 1 3
6-0 170 Sr 2 Andre Walker 28 68 24 8 3-8 0-2 2-5 0 2 4 3 0 0 4
6-5 211 So 41 Ian Langendoerfer 11 82 15 3 0-1 0-2 3-3 0 1 0 0 0 0 4
5-11 179 Fr 0 Isaiah Hart 28 60 18 5 2-8 0-1 1-2 0 2 3 2 2 1 3
6-7 194 Fr 23 Brent Holcombe 23 99 21 13 0-3 4-5 1-2 1 2 0 3 0 0 5
6-0 186 Jr 4 Nevell Provo 5     0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2
6-2 180 Jr 15 Sam Norton 4     1 0-0 0-0 1-2 1 2 1 0 0 0 1
    Team               2 4   1      
    TOTAL
 
200
 
    75
0.94
16-42
.381
8-17
.471
19-29
.655
12
.293
32
.727
14
.583
18
.225
2
.050
6
.075
30
 
Largest lead: 8-4 (16:12 1st half).
              Northwestern (1-0)               
    Name Min ORtg %Ps Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OR DR A TO Blk Stl PF
6-3 200 Sr 30 Bryant McIntosh 38 97 26 16 4-8 0-5 8-8 2 2 7 4 1 3 1
6-5 210 Sr 20 Scottie Lindsey MVP 35 113 26 26 5-9 4-11 4-8 1 8 0 0 1 1 2
6-7 200 Jr 4 Vic Law 35 96 17 12 3-8 1-4 3-5 1 6 1 0 3 0 4
6-8 235 Jr 5 Dererk Pardon 29 98 26 16 6-9 0-0 4-10 5 2 0 3 3 0 4
6-8 235 Sr 44 Gavin Skelly 19 72 10 3 1-1 0-0 1-2 0 2 1 2 2 1 4
6-2 190 So 12 Isiah Brown 14 108 13 4 1-2 0-0 2-2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
6-4 205 Fr 11 Anthony Gaines 12 42 23 2 0-2 0-0 2-2 0 1 1 3 0 0 4
6-10 240 So 25 Barret Benson 10 18 13 0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 5 1 1 2 0 4
6-3 200 Jr 23 Jordan Ash 8     0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
    Team               3 2   1      
    TOTAL
 
200
 
    79
0.99
20-40
.500
5-21
.238
24-37
.649
12
.273
29
.707
13
.520
15
.188
12
.286
5
.062
25
 
Largest lead: 41-24 (19:17 2nd half). Minimum win probability: 83.3% (trailed 66-65, 04:18 2nd half).

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Not as much movement as I had hoped, but we are in the double digits and switched spots with the Illini.

 

 


 

 

KenPom rankings as of 11-14-17

==========================
 
B1G (0-0):
10. Michigan State (10)
16. Purdue (17)
23. Wisconsin (31)
30. Minnesota (36)
32. Northwestern (18)
36. Maryland (41)

40. Michigan (32)

43. Penn State (40)
52. Iowa (54)
74. Ohio State (78)
84. Indiana (65)
99. Nebraska (98)
103. Illinois (104)
147. Rutgers (125)
 
Non-Conference (2-0):
197. Eastern Illinois - W
300. North Texas - W
 
---Gavitt Tip-Off---
54. @St. John's
 
219. North Dakota
 
---Advocare Invitational---
61. UCF
14. / 309. West Virginia / Marist
54. / 69. / 76. / 230. St. John's / Missouri / Oregon State / Long Beach State
 
---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
91. Boston College
 
41. @Creighton
 
---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
4. Kansas
 
284. UTSA
347. Delaware State
308. Stetson

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So here's a thing about our schedule, if you define major conference as including the Power 5, the Big East and the American. Not projecting second- or third-round tournament games, Nebraska plays more major non-conference opponents than anyone else in the Big Ten. And we play only one SWAC, MEAC, WAC team. Illinois, Iowa and Maryland have four of those games. So by this narrow definition, we have the toughest schedule in the conference, and yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team.

Big Ten major non-conference foes (#): Name
ILLINOIS (3): DePaul, Wake Forest, Missouri
INDIANA (4): Seton Hall, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame
IOWA (3): Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Colorado
MARYLAND (2): Butler, Syracuse
MICHIGAN (4): LSU, North Carolina, UCLA, Texas
MICHIGAN STATE (3): Duke, DePaul, Notre Dame
MINNESOTA (4): Providence, Miami, Alabama, Arkansas
NEBRASKA (5): St. John's, UCF, Boston College, Creighton, Kansas
NORTHWESTERN (4): Creighton, Georgia Tech, DePaul, Oklahoma
OHIO STATE (2): Gonzaga, North Carolina
PENN STATE (2): Pitt, NC State
PURDUE (4): Marquette, Tennessee, Louisville, Butler
RUTGERS (2): Florida State, Seton Hall
WISCONSIN (4): Xavier, Baylor, Virginia, Marquette

Big Ten WAC, MEAC, SWAC and Division II foes (#): Name
ILLINOIS (4): Southern, NC Central, NM State, Grand Canyon
INDIANA (1): Howard
IOWA (4): Chicago State, Alabama State, Grambling, Southern
MARYLAND (4): MD-Eastern Shore, Jackson State, Catholic U.
MICHIGAN (1): Alabama A&M
MICHIGAN STATE (2): Houston Baptist, Savannah State
MINNESOTA (1): Alabama A&M
NEBRASKA (1): Delaware State
NORTHWESTERN (2): Chicago State, Lewis College
OHIO STATE (1): Texas Southern
PENN STATE (1): Coppin State
PURDUE (1): Chicago State
RUTGERS (2): CCNY, Coppin State
WISCONSIN (2): South Carolina State, Chicago State

So the Nebraska-never-plays-anybody trope is old AND inaccurate, especially for a team that is predicted to finish 13th in a 14-team conference and needs all the wins and confidence it can get.

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8 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

really think the St. Johns game and UCF game are huge games for us.  really need to win both!!!  Will be tough to do though

 

And beating UCF will likely mean two more difficult games in the Orlando tourney against a West Virginia squad & whoever else after that in the "winner's side" of the bracket.

 

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12 minutes ago, jayschool said:

So by this narrow definition, we have the toughest schedule in the conference, and yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team.

 

Scheduling tough doesn't make you a good team

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It's been my biggest complaint about the Miles era over the last few years.  I think he's drastically over-scheduled and it has really hurt us.  Give us Northwestern's non-con instead and I think you'd see a lot different results.

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1 minute ago, 49r said:

It's been my biggest complaint about the Miles era over the last few years.  I think he's drastically over-scheduled and it has really hurt us.  Give us Northwestern's non-con instead and I think you'd see a lot different results.

 

I'd make an argument that their tissue soft schedule two years ago gave them no chance to make the tourney. 

 

It looks like we scheduling bad enough bad teams during Christmas. Is North Dakota with 6 prep days going to come in and run us over on a Sunday at 1 pm in between the St Johns and UCF game?  That team has the look of those UNO run and gun squads. Do we not schedule Kansas? Last year was overkill, especially with no White, but we're scheduling like a team trying to make the tourney, not rack up wins for Miles' record.

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Just now, hhcdimes said:

 

I'd make an argument that their tissue soft schedule two years ago gave them no chance to make the tourney. 

 

It looks like we scheduling bad enough bad teams during Christmas. Is North Dakota with 6 prep days going to come in and run us over on a Sunday at 1 pm in between the St Johns and UCF game?  That team has the look of those UNO run and gun squads. Do we not schedule Kansas? Last year was overkill, especially with no White, but we're scheduling like a team trying to make the tourney, not rack up wins for Miles' record.

 

I can appreciate Miles style on this. Win 18+ games by scheduling to 'get in' & then win when you're 'in.' (*If only it were that simple to execute the plan...)

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2 hours ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Scheduling tough doesn't make you a good team

Didn't intend to IMPLY that it did. By writing "yet we're supposed to be the second-worst team," I meant simply that we have an even steeper hill to climb.

Tough schedule + bad team (allegedly) = Bad results.

Edited by jayschool

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