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2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread

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That's pretty funny tweeting by Tim Miles.

Predictive metrics are almost always wrong.

Here are some old and time-honored adages on predicting:

--“Prediction is difficult, especially if it’s about the future” (from Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics).

--“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge” (from Lao Tzu, ancient Chinese poet).

--“I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place” (from Winston Churchill).

--“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t” (Anonymous).

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1 hour ago, 49r said:



Yeah.  What Tim said.


So Pomeroy's computer thought we were the 97th best team in November and predicted we'd win only 13 games overall and were likely to win only 3 in conference.


Fast forward to the end of February and we won 22 games including 13 in conference.  And, that moved the needle from 97th best to 54th best.


I don't mind him picking us to be 97th to begin the season; no one outside the program and diehards among the fans had any reason to believe we'd be any better than that.  That part I get.


The part I don't get is when we actually go out and kill it, his computer keeps telling him "but you're still Nebraska."

Edited by Norm Peterson

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Here's something I'd like to know: If you went back and replayed the season but started with the rankings we finished with, would the numbers come back the same?


In other words, at the beginning of the season, he predicted we'd lose to #42 Creighton.  And, by playing a highly-rated team, it moved us up a bit because I guess we did slightly better than he predicted we would.  But, it turns out Creighton was really the #29 team.  If they had been #29 when we played them and we were #54, then what does the computer think of us?


Second question:  Does his computer think you're the same team in February that you were in November?  In other words, does it think you now are really what you've been all season long?  Because the teams that are beating Minnesota now, for instance, aren't playing the same team that they would have played in the first part of December when we first beat them.  Does his computer adjust for the fact that a team might be playing better at one point in the season when you lost to them (or beat them) than they were playing later in the season when their ranking went down (or up as the case may be)?


Third question:  Are wins and losses all graded by margin of victory/defeat?  If we had beaten Delaware St. by 27 instead of 17, would that win drag us down?  Should a 17-point win ever really drag your rating down?

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