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2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread


49r

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45 minutes ago, ConkintheCorner said:

How about a KenPom schedule update??  Does it just have us losing next 2 games?

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27 63 102 Iowa W, 98-84 70   Home 16-8 7-4  
Mon Jan 29   85 Wisconsin L, 65-63 61 45% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 6   86 Minnesota L, 73-72 69 46% Away   × b.gif
Sat Feb 10   134 Rutgers W, 66-57 65 79% Home   ×  
Tue Feb 13   41 Maryland W, 70-69 66 54% Home   × b.gif
Sun Feb 18   108 Illinois W, 71-70 69 52% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 20   89 Indiana W, 71-65 66 71% Home   ×  
Sun Feb 25   54 Penn St. W, 70-68 67 60% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 20-11 11-7
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4 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27 63 102 Iowa W, 98-84 70   Home 16-8 7-4  
Mon Jan 29   85 Wisconsin L, 65-63 61 45% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 6   86 Minnesota L, 73-72 69 46% Away   × b.gif
Sat Feb 10   134 Rutgers W, 66-57 65 79% Home   ×  
Tue Feb 13   41 Maryland W, 70-69 66 54% Home   × b.gif
Sun Feb 18   108 Illinois W, 71-70 69 52% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 20   89 Indiana W, 71-65 66 71% Home   ×  
Sun Feb 25   54 Penn St. W, 70-68 67 60% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 20-11 11-7

5-2

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16 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

4-3 the rest of the way:

 

Sat Jan 27 63 102 Iowa W, 98-84 70   Home 16-8 7-4  
Mon Jan 29   85 Wisconsin L, 65-63 61 45% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 6   86 Minnesota L, 73-72 69 46% Away   × b.gif
Sat Feb 10   134 Rutgers W, 66-57 65 79% Home   ×  
Tue Feb 13   41 Maryland W, 70-69 66 54% Home   × b.gif
Sun Feb 18   108 Illinois W, 71-70 69 52% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 20   89 Indiana W, 71-65 66 71% Home   ×  
Sun Feb 25   54 Penn St. W, 70-68 67 60% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 20-11 11-7

 

The 20-11 record indicated would imply 4-3 while the projections actually show 5-2..... splitting MD & IL, I suspect.

 

 

 

Edited by AuroranHusker
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1 hour ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

The 20-11 record indicated would imply 4-3 while the projections actually show 5-2..... splitting MD & IL, I suspect.

 

 

 

 

No, that's not the way that works.  The way they project final record is to add up the odds for each remaining game (0.45 + 0.46 + 0.79, etc) and that total tells you how many more expected wins you have.  The math adds up to 4.07, meaning we are expected to have 4 more wins. 

 

Think about if the odds of victory were 49% for every game in an entire season.  Technically that would mean you're expected to go winless if you only look at each game in isolation.  But taken as a whole, you'd expect to win just under half of them.  Same thing.

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1 hour ago, aphilso1 said:

 

No, that's not the way that works.  The way they project final record is to add up the odds for each remaining game (0.45 + 0.46 + 0.79, etc) and that total tells you how many more expected wins you have.  The math adds up to 4.07, meaning we are expected to have 4 more wins. 

 

Think about if the odds of victory were 49% for every game in an entire season.  Technically that would mean you're expected to go winless if you only look at each game in isolation.  But taken as a whole, you'd expect to win just under half of them.  Same thing.

 

Yeah, I'm just rationalizing since, in reality, NU can only have either 1 (win) or 0. No partial credit (see KU-NU).

Edited by AuroranHusker
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10 minutes ago, AuroranHusker said:

 

Yeah, I'm just rationalizing since it in reality NU can only have either 1 (win) or 0. No partial credit (see KU-NU).

 

Even so, that's still not what the formula is saying. If you're looking at where the formula is projecting one extra 1 to flip to a 0, it's from the three games in which we are significantly favored (Rutger, Indy, & PSU); our projected win total for those three games is 2.1, not 3.  That's where the extra loss is projected. 

 

The four coin-flip games come out to a wash, since we're barely dogs in two and barely favorites in the other two.  Still comes out to 2 wins in 4 games for those.

Edited by aphilso1
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Just now, aphilso1 said:

 

Even so, that's still not what the formula is saying. If you're looking at where the formula is projecting one extra 1 to flip to a 0, it's from the three games in which we are significantly favored (Rutger, Indy, & PSU); our projected win total for those three games is 2.1, not 3.  That's where the extra loss is projected.  

 

Yeah, I realize that.... a lot of close games are projected for NU.

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Mon Jan 29 61 90 Wisconsin W, 74-63 70   Away 17-8 8-4 b.gif
Tue Feb 6   84 Minnesota L, 73-72 69 48% Away   × b.gif
Sat Feb 10   135 Rutgers W, 67-57 66 81% Home   ×  
Tue Feb 13   41 Maryland W, 70-69 66 56% Home   × b.gif
Sun Feb 18   106 Illinois W, 72-70 70 55% Away   × b.gif
Tue Feb 20   88 Indiana W, 72-65 66 73% Home   ×  
Sun Feb 25   54 Penn St. W, 71-68 68 62% Home   × b.gif
Projected record: 21-10 12-6
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